Larry Ness
Las Vegas Insider-CFB (1st of '08!)-TV game
My Las Vegas Insider is on USC at 3:30 ET. Al Groh's Virginia team won nine games last year but SIX were by five points or less with FIVE coming by two points or less (an NCAA record). Let's see what USC has been up to lately. In the last six years, there have been at least a share of six consecutive Pac-10 titles, six straight BCS bowls, three Heisman Trophy winners and two national championps. Pete Carroll was hired in December 2000 and after a 2-5 start, has gone 74-9! He's coached 30 first-team All-Americans and 11 first-round draft choices (four in 2007 alone). He has the best winning percentage (.844) among active coaches with at least five years of experience and if USC wins at least 11 games this season, it will be the first school to ever accomplish that it six consecutive seasons. Let's not forget the school's 34-game winning streak (tied for sixth-longest ever) that started after a triple-overtime loss to Cal and ended with the BCS title game loss to Texas. That was in the 2006 Rose Bowl when Carroll came within 19 seconds of becoming the first coach to win three consecutive major-poll national championships. Not bad stuff! The Cavs were merely average offensively in 2007 and won't be much better (if at all) in '08. QB Jameel Sewell is gone, leaving Peter Lalich (a true frosh LY, who had 61 attempts), senior Scott Deke and sophomore Marc Verica vying for time. It will help greatly if WR Kevin Ogletree (who missed 2007 due to injury) can contribute as he did in '06. The RB situation should be decent with the return to health of Cedric Peerman (585 YR / 5.2 YPC) plus Mikell Simpson, who played well down the stretch and finished the year averaging 5.0 yards per carry (570 YR). However, the Trojans had a devastating defensive unit last season and despite some huge losses, big things are expected from USC's defense once again in 2008. QB Mark Sanchez dislocated his left kneecap during warm-ups on August 8th but he is listed as the starter for this game. Even if he doesn't play all that much, I'm not worried. The Trojans are very deep at RB and any one of a number of players could step up this year. Virginia's D will be physically overmatched and while Al Groh is 34-10 SU at home with the Cavs (including 14-4 as a home dog), I expect Pete Carroll to want to blow out more opponents out this year. That wasn't the case in '07 and it cost USC in the final BCS standings. The Ohio State showdown is still two weeks away (with an off week up next), so expect a very crisp effort by USC in this one. Las Vegas Insider on USC.
Weekend Wipeout Winner (12-2 finish LY)-Early game
My Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Yes, the Gators have Miami up next but the 'Canes are hardly the rivals they once were. Hawaii was last year's non-BCS 'darlings,' going 12-0 in the regular season with Colt Brennan running Junes Jones' offense to perfection. However, Brennan is off to the NFL and Jones is now at SMU. Taking over on the sidelines for Hawaii is last year's DC, Greg McMackin, in his first head coaching job. Senior QB Tyler Graunke is still dealing with academic issues and Brent Rausch, a third-year sophomore from College of the Desert, was announced as the team's No. 1 quarterback two weeks ago. However, he has been bothered the past week with tenderness in the right forearm and biceps of his throwing arm and is now listed as questionable for this game. The team's top-four receivers are gone from last year (three had topped 1,000 yards) and Hawaii's running game, which ranked 116th of 119 team's in '08 with 77.6 YPG (3.4 YPC), cannot be expected to "carry the load." The Hawaii defense did a solid job last year but only four starters return in '08. The real strength of the defense is the linebacking corps but the secondary loses both CBs and a starting safety from last year. Hawaii must make this long trek to Florida and then deal with the weather (especially the humidity) in "The Swamp." Florida is the AP's No. 5-ranked team but many SEC observers feel as if the Gators and not preseason No. 1 Georgia, is the favorite to take CFB's toughest conference. Speaking of Georgia, last year's Hawaii team (the best in school history) was totally outclassed by the Bulldogs in last year's Sugar Bowl, losing 41-10. The game wasn't as close as the score, as Brennan had almost "no chance" against Georgia's blitzes. The Gator D was young last year but this year returns eight starters. It will be way too athletic and fast for the Rainbows and even the backups will be able to control the line of scrimmage in the latter stages of the game. Heisman-winner Tebow became the first sophomore to ever win that award last year, becoming the first player in NCAA history to pass for more than 20 TDs (32) and rush for more than 20 (23) in the same season. WR Percy Harvin is expected to miss but Florida has plenty of talent in its receiving corps. Meyer is happy with his RB depth (he claims it's four-deep) and the offense, which was third nationally with 42.5 PPG, will score easily against a severely overworked Warrior defense. Weekend Wipeout Winner of Florida.
15* Team Mismatch of the Week (185-97 two-year run!)
My 15* play is on the Arz D'backs at 8:10 ET. The Dodgers were tied atop the NL West with the D'backs back on August 15 but have lost 11 of 13 since then, including the team's current 0-8 mark on their current 10-game road trip (includes three losses at Washington, which owns MLB's worst record ar 50-85). The D'backs easily dispatched the Dodgers last night 9-3, ending their four-game losing streak and moving them 4 1/2 games ahead of LA in the division. The D'backs have survived this year by dominating their NL West opponents, going 35-19 (.648) against divisions foes, as compared to just 34-46 (.425) against the rest of MLB. In comparison, the Dodgers have lost eight of the 13 head-to-head meetings with the D'backs and have gone just 24-25 overall, vs the NL West. The Dodgers have been outscored 54-15 during their current eight-game slide and although they'll send their best pitcher to the mound in Chad Billingsley (12-10, 3.15 ERA), he's gone just 1-1 over his last five starts with the team losing FOUR of the five games, despite him posting a respectable 3.60 ERA during that stretch. LA gets more bad news knowing that Billingsley has had absolutely NO success vs Arizona this year, as in three starts, he's allowed 18 hits and 12 ERs over 14 innings (7.71 ERA) while going 0-3. The D'backs will send Dan Haen to the mound and Haren has done exactly what they had hoped he would do when they traded with the A's for him in the off-season. Haren's been the perfect No.2 man to the team's ace, Brandon Webb. Haren enters this game with a 14-6 mark (3.10 ERA) and is 10-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 14 home starts (team is 10-4). Stick with the D'backs here, as the Dodgers' slide continues. Team Mismatch GOW 15* Arz D'backs.
Las Vegas Insider-MLB (44-26 w/MLB Insiders since May 26)
My Las Vegas Insider is on the Fla Marlins at 7:10 ET. Carlos Beltran hit a grand slam in the top of the 9th for the Mets last night, giving them a 5-2 lead. However, nothing comes easy for this team, which blew a seven-game lead last year with just 17 games remaining. Luis Ayala got the save last night for the Mets but not before he allowed four hits and two runs in the bottom of the 9th. The loss continued Florida's recent slide, as the Marlins have now lost 13 of their last 20 games and fallen seven games behind the Mets in the NL East. Tonight's pitching matchup features the teams' two-top winners and who would have believed that, at the start of this season. New York's Mike Pelfrey was 3-8 with a 5.57 ERA last year, while Ricky Nolasco, after going 11-11 in '06, was hurt almost all of '07, making just five appearances (four starts). However, entering this game, Pelfrey is 13-8 with a 3.70 ERA and Nolasco is 13-7 with a 3.62 ERA. Pelfrey is 11-2 with a 3.00 ERA over his last 17 starts (team is 14-3) and is off back-to-back complete games. Meanwhile, Nolasco has also won his last two starts (21 Ks and just 2 walks) and the Marlins are 17-9 (plus-$1,174) in his 26 starts this year, making him MLB's fourth-biggest "money-maker." So what do we do here? Take the Marlins and Nolasco and here's why. Pelfrey has a 2.67 ERA in 15 home starts this year but in 11 road starts, has allowed 81 hits in just 61.2 innings, while his ERA is more than DOUBLE (5.40 ERA) what it is at Shea. Even more importantly, Pelfrey has had HUGE problems with the Marlins. He faced them once last year (lost to Nolasco, 5-3) and has taken them on three times in '08. In just 12.2 innings of work this year vs the Marlins (has yet to make it out of the 5th!), Pelfrey has allowed 21 hits and 15 ERs for a 10.66 ERA in going 0-3. Nolasco has been the team's most consistent pitcher all season and the Marlins just LOVE facing Pelfrey. Las Vegas Insider on the Fla Marlins.
Oddsmaker's Error (3-0 CFB start / combined scores of 132-44!)
My Oddsmaker's Error is on Michigan at 3:30 ET. Rich Rodriquez left West Va after last year's regular season to take the job at Michigan. There are 18 Div I-A schools with new head coaches this year and Rodriguez arguably has the highest profile, as Michigan is the winningest program in NCAA history with 869 all-time wins. Add to that the fact that Michigan has produced 40 consecutive winning seasons and has made 33 straight bowl appearances (both streaks are the longest active ones in the NCAA) and that almost solidifies the fact. Rodriguez went just 3-8 in his first year at West Va but 57-18 the next six years, leading the Mountaineers to six bowls (he didn't coach in LY's Fiesta Bowl win over Oklahoma). It won't be easy at Michigan in his first year, as the Wolverines return just three offensive starters and not a single skill position player. Then again, since Rodriguez is installing a new system, that may not be all that bad. On the other hand, Michigan's defense is expected to be top-notch, especially its front-seven. Utah comes in with lots of confidence off a 9-4 season and its seventh straight bowl win. QB Brian Johnson is expected to be healthy this year but I'm not as sold on him as others (shoulder?). He's got two very good RBs in Mack (1,204 YR) and the now healthy Matt Asiata, four starters back on the OL, plus a number of quality WRs. Utah's defense allowed just 16.8 PPG last year (ranked 5th) and was No. 1 in pass efficiency defense with a rating of 96.5 a year ago. Installing an entirely new offense with players who need to have time to grow into the new schemes is not an easy task, yet coach Rodriguez insists on making it happen in Ann Arbor. He, like everyone else in the CFB world, remembers what happened to Michigan in last year's season opener. The Wolverines lost 34-32 to Appalachian State last year and the team never really covered. Although expectations are high in Salt Lake City this year, this is one tough opening-game venue for the Utes. Utah is just 3-8 SU on the road vs BCS schools this decade in the regular season and as this number keeps "coming down," the Utes virtually need to win this game in order to cover! Michigan is rebuilding but with last year's upset by App State "fresh in the minds" of the players and Michigan's new head coach, I expect the Wolverines to play an outstanding game. At this price, Michigan is a bargain. Oddsmaker's Error on Michigan.
