Predicted Score v. vegas line Wk 1

[c20916]

There are only 21 of 38 reporting so the numbers will more than likely change, but here's what I have so far avd std dev of 6.04
I am sure DJ chad will post all the numbers, don't have time to do it now, plus they will change anyway, but here's the early plays:

Akron *
USC ***
Georgia Tech ***
Baylor *
Cal *
Georgia **
Colorado **
Connecticut *
Illinois *
Iowa **
Louisiana monroe *
Miami *
West Mich *
Oregon **
Ohio St **
North Texas *
Buffalo *
Fresno St. ***
Texas *
Ark St *
TT **
Tulane *
Toledo ***
Utah St. *
Virginia ***
Wash St **
West Vir *

Toledo has seems to be the strongest play so far, it's predicted score is above 6 and the std dev is 2.86 below the avg std dev.

 

[AR182]

c20916,

sorry, but don't understand your post.

who predicted these scores ?

what do you mean by 21 of 38 reporting ?

what is the history of these predictions /

thanks

 

[c20916]

AR182, djchad started posting this last year, below is his explanation of it. Basically it's a website that lists various predictions from like saragin, massey,dunkel, cpa etc, and last year the 3 * did pretty well, in fact in the bowl games if you just took the predictions forgetting everything else I think they lost only like 2 or 3 bowl games.



I've always used predicted scores as one of my tools in capping games. Never as a crutch, and never as the sole reason for playing a game. I feel that predicted scores (or rather, predicted margin of victory) can be useful in deciding which side to play.

Starting this past week, I have begun tracking the results of predicted scores vs. the line. The predicted scores data comes from another website (msg me for URL), and I don't claim it as my own. Predicted scores can be flaky and unreliable, but as I said - this is just one tool (and not a single reference) to help in capping games.

My criterion is this:

3 star play = The predicted score is at least 6.00 above the posted line AND the std. deviation of the predicted scores is less than the avg of the std dev's.

2 star play = The predicted score is at least 6.00 above the posted line AND the std. deviation of the predicted scores is greater than the avg of the std dev's.

1 star play = The predicted score is at least 3.00 above the posted line but less than 6.00 above the posted line.


In simple terms, if the predicted margin of victory is much higher than the posted line, in this case 6 pts, then you should play the game (2 star). Also, if the predicted margin of victory is over 6 pts, and most of the predictions are fairly close (a low std. deviation), then you should really play the game (3 star).

 

[c20916]

ok some more projections reported so I have 27 of 38 reporting now, I edited the above post with the following changes, the avd std dev is now 5.90

Colorado is now **,
U Conn is *
Miami is *
Tulsa is a no play now
Texas is *
TT is now **
Wash St is now **

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Keep them coming. Thanks for your efforts!

HORNS

 

[c20916]

I'll post the number when I get home from work tonight.

 

[c20916]

Ok here are all the numbers, hopefully this will look ok:

Teams Line Projected Score Delta STD Dev **
Akron Kent 11 14.07 3.07 6.6 *
Alabama South Florida 17 14.03 -2.97 4.11
Arizona UTEP 21.5 23.45 1.95 5.37
Auburn USC 4 -4.61 -8.61 5.61 ***
BYU Georgia Tech 3.5 -4.21 -7.71 4.87 ***
Baylor UAB -10 -6.3 3.7 4.19 *
Boston College Wake Forest 12 11.15 -0.85 3.92
California Southern Miss. 3.5 7.29 3.79 6.43 *
Cincinnati East Carolina 8.5 10.41 1.91 4.45
Clemson Georgia -3 -13.48 -10.48 6.65 **
Colorado St. Colorado 1.5 -5.52 -7.02 6.93 **
Connecticut Indiana 6 9.11 3.11 9.72 *
Florida San Jose St. 24.5 22.41 -2.09 7.03
Houston Rice 5.5 4.1 -1.4 4.01
Illinois Missouri -3.5 1.18 4.68 3.59 *
Iowa Miami (Ohio) 11 19.28 8.28 6.6 **
Kansas Northwestern -6 -5.68 0.32 3.29
Kansas St. Troy St. 37 38.63 1.63 9.85
Kentucky Louisville 5.5 6.56 1.06 6.75
LSU Louisiana-Monroe 35 31.58 -3.42 6.37 *
Louisiana Tech Miami (Fla.) -28 -32.81 -4.81 6.87 *
Michigan Central Mich. 33.5 35.3 1.8 6.29
Michigan St. Western Mich. 13.5 7.96 -5.54 3.16 *
Minnesota Tulsa 31 28.92 -2.08 5.46
Mississippi St. Oregon -4.5 -8.3 -3.8 5.89 *
Nebraska Oklahoma St. 7.5 5.39 -2.11 7.85
North Carolina Florida St. -16.5 -16.8 -0.3 5.42
Northern Ill. Maryland -7.5 -10.48 -2.98 4.72
Ohio St. Washington 9 14.84 5.84 6.29 *
Oklahoma North Texas 33 29.49 -3.51 7.28 *
Penn St. Temple 24 24.42 0.42 6.09
Rutgers Buffalo 12.5 7.42 -5.08 6.59 *
South Carolina Louisiana-Lafayette 24 21.76 -2.24 5.32
Tennessee Fresno St. 20 11.63 -8.37 5.27 ***
Texas New Mexico St. 29 32.42 3.42 5.92 *
Texas A&M Arkansas St. 29 25.07 -3.93 6.53 *
Texas Tech SMU 25 30.73 5.73 6.86 *
Tulane TCU -7 -4.07 2.93 6.6
UNLV Toledo 0 -6.88 -6.88 3.23 ***
Utah Utah St. 20 14.93 -5.07 4.21 *
Vanderbilt Mississippi -13 -11.59 1.41 3.82
Virginia Duke 16 22.82 6.82 5.95 ***
Virginia Tech Central Florida 19 18.11 -0.89 4.85
Washington St. Idaho 28 33.68 5.68 13.66 **
West Va. Wisconsin -3 1.72 4.72 3.67 *

 

[ND2002HORNS]

Thanks for the final update.

HORNS

 

[djchad]

Thanks for picking up the slack for me c20916

I will be back the first of next week with picks for Week 2.

 

[c20916]

no problem djchad, didn't know if you were going to do it again this year or not, it's all yours next week.

Also there are still some predictions that have not reported yet, I think it's around 7 or 8, and the avd std dev was 5.90 for the above numbers, if there are any significant changes I will post them.

 

[redking]

Just wanted to let ya guys know that both your work is appreciated!

 

[Superbear]

I have been using this website for 3 years now,..one problem with it is that it needs stats from the current teams,..college teams change from year to year because of gratuations and players leaving for the NFL,..right now all it has to work with is last years info,..give it about 4 to 5 weeks to heat up

 

[c20916]

Well the stats are off to a bad start in games last night the predicted scores went 1-3-1. However the games that would have qualified as plays went 1-1-1 with Miami winning, Utah St pushing, and GT losing. Akron ending up being a no play with updated numbers which I didn't post sorry.

With the updated numbers the remaining 3 and 2 star plays are:

Fresno St. ***
USC ***
Virginia **
Toledo **
Iowa **
Colorado **
Georgia **

Like superbear said this is based on last year so tread lightly but I am sure this will heat up.

 

[c20916]

well the system didn't do too bad in wk 1. There is still a 1* on texas today, but so far:

3* 2-1
2* 4-1
1* 11-4-1

ytd: 17-6-1

I'll take that every week

 

[djchad]

Oh yes, the numbers look good for the first week of the season. I didn't post what I had earlier because I didn't want to crap on c20916's numbers and confuse anyone.

I've slightly changed the way I give the games star ratings, and I will explain this in Week 2's post. Here are the plays and results I have for Week 1:

Favors	     Line	Avg Pred Delta	Std Dev	Play		
Miami	      -27.50	-32.27	4.77	6.34	*		W
Georgia Tech	3.50	-3.84	7.34	4.79	**	+	L
Utah State	19.50	14.93	4.57	4.21	*		L
Toledo	        -1.00	-6.68	5.68	3.06	*		L
Virginia	-16.00	-22.74	6.74	5.95	**		W
Georgia	        -2.50	-13.20	10.70	6.68	**	+	W
West Virginia	3.00	-1.47	4.47	3.66	*		L
Iowa	      -11.00	-18.91	7.91	6.70	**		W
Illinois	3.50	-1.46	4.96	3.46	*		W
Western Mich	14.00	7.96	6.04	3.16	***	+	W
Fresno State	20.50	11.48	9.02	5.26	***	+	W
USC	         4.00	-4.38	8.38	5.55	**	+	W
California	-3.50	-6.70	3.20	6.37	*		W
Buffalo	       12.00	7.65	4.35	6.72	*		L
Texas Tech	-24.00	-30.18	6.18	6.56	**		W
Baylor	         9.00	5.94	3.06	4.34	*		W
Colorado	2.00	-5.20	7.20	6.90	**	+	W
Ohio State	-9.00	-14.74	5.74	6.32	*		W
Oregon     	-3.50	-8.41	4.91	5.90	*		W
Connecticut	-5.50	-8.75	3.25	9.62	*		W
North Texas	32.50	29.37	3.13	7.20	*		L
Arkansas State	29.00	24.53	4.47	5.85	*		W
LA-Monroe	34.50	31.36	3.14	6.04	*		L
Texas	      -29.00	-32.08	3.08	5.51	*



Weekly	W	L	T	%
***	2	0	0	1.000
**	6	1	0	0.857
*	8	6	0	0.571
+	5	1	0	0.833
				
				
				
Season	W	L	T	%
***	2	0	0	1.000
**	6	1	0	0.857
*	8	6	0	0.571
+	5	1	0	0.833

 

[djv]

I watched this last year. I shall this year to. It's another tool and a very good idea. Thanks for like everything else if you want to say ahead. It takes work. Thanks for your work guys.

 

[AR182]

c20916,

thanks for posting the explanation. it's appreciated.

also thanks to you & djchad for sharing this with us.