ECU +2.5 and under 5.4.5

[JEFF]

ytd 29-25, -7.2* (1-5 last weekend ... on an ugly 4-14 run after 25-11 start)


ECU +2.5, 3*
under 54.5, 4*

No, I have not lost it. And yes, I liked Houston when i first saw the line, too...but...

Here's the thing. ECU is winless and we all know how bad they've been. But they've played the 2nd toughest schedule in the nation. Meantime, Houston has gone 3-1, beating three winless teams and getting annihalated by Michigan.

If you look at the stats, Houston looks good on the surface. But in reality they've beaten up on terrible teams, and most all of their stats are worse than the average against their opponents.Houston averages:

--28.5 points (opponents allowing 30.9)
-- 28.2 points against (opponents averaging 23.2)
--29:31 T.O.P against teams allowing 31:16
-- allows 5 yards per carry, against teams averaging 4.3

ECU has completed 67% of passes against opponents allowing 60%. Problem is, Robinson has turned the ball over a ton. But Houston has forced one T.O. in two road games.

The Pirates have moved the ball well at times and had a shot to win at Wake last week, but are not capitalizing, averaging one point for every 40 yards of offense, which is abyssmal. Combine that with Houston scoring one per 23 yards on the road, and the under looks pretty good. Also on the under, Houston pass D has been good but run D has sucked. ECU has been killed by TO's and will try to get the running game going. If not now, then never.

I think its a major factor that ECU has played such tough teams while Houston has played Michigan (50-3 loss) and beat a bunch of bums. This one will seem like slow motion for ECU. Houston also 2-7 as road faves. ECU 4-1 SU vs Houston.

Houston comes in with an offense that has done well, but led by a true freshman. On national TV (Houston has lost 11 in a row on national TV), against a desperate team, that isn't a good formula for a fave win/cover. ECU has UNC, at Army, and Louisville in the next three weeks. This might be there best shot at a win. While its hard to back such a bad team, this game looks like a setup.

 

[taoist]

...like the way that you think, sir.

 

[treynolds]

i like the under in this game also. ecu hasnt scored alot of points in any game at this year and their d has been better since the they were blown out by cinci. Houston has played well at home this year a big win against a worthless miss st. team but i almost have to agree with you on ecu as the side as it looks like a perfect setup game. Home teams always get up for these big espn games.

GL tonight

 

[BASON]

Nice write-up. I was on the fence, but I think you are due. Worth a unit. Good Luck!

 

[pt1gard]

hey jeff

hey jeff

gl, I agree 100%; when I first saw line i said, HOU!! then i thought, how could the line be so inviting, the sucker 2.5 etc, kinda how I felt when i saw WSU only getting 4 on sat. when i MLed them ... HOU beat Miss st and Rice badly at home, and seem to be much better team IMO, but you make a great point about ECU playing much tuffer sched. and 3 of 4 on rd to boot, altho their only H game was a fiasco vs WV ... this is def. a "dont figure" game and I prob will sit out; but EC, if they have any pride, should show up, plus they are prob the public's #1 go against team in CFB

take care
gregg

 

[SNID]

Jeff,

Good writeup!

At first glance the over looked like the only way to go with these two. I've spent the last hour going over stats trying to get a better handle on the game and just can't lose the "feelin" that this will be an under here. Gotta think that E Car will not want to go 0-2 in Conference play. Their New Coach Thompson has been a Defensive Coordinator at some outstanding schools. (Fla, bama, Ark, Lsu etc)
Also, there is one Stat here that should not be overlooked in my opinion. E Car has a 10 yard advantage in net punting. 42 yard net..against a pretty rough group of teams, while Houston has a 31 yard net.. against a not so stellar group.
I'm thinking the Pirates will put up a much stronger Def effort here in a conference game and with Houston having the longer field E Car should prevail in a lower scoring game than one might think.

With ya on Both!

SNID

 

[phin8181]

I must agree with you on this.......went the same way!!

GL

as always, appreciate the write ups

 

[ego74]

yeah, the ecu qb has a great pass pct. i think he's thrown quite a few picks, so he'll complete it to somebody.

most people here are picking houston, but somebody has got money on ecu, because the line has moved down like crazy.

should be an interesting game. of course it's the only one tonight, so i have to say that.

 

[saint]

Keep in mind ECU plays UNC next week at home. This is a HUGE HUGE game for them. They have more of an inferiority complex against us than NCState. I'm not saying this will tell you what side to pick, as I'm sure ECU is eager to pick up it's 1st win. I just thought that should be taken into account.

 

[JEFF]

I've decided the under is the stronger play and have altered the *s.

 

[ajoytoy]

gl Jeff!


toy

 

[hossfly]

going to have to go against you on this one, I believe Houston wins by 3

 

[gardenweasel]

g.l.,jeff

g.l.,jeff

as i peruse other forums it`s obvious that the majority is on houston like mike price on a topless dancer......

if i bet these single games,i`d ride yer` coattails....but,i don`t like to fool with `em unless something looks very strong....with everyone appearing to be on houston,i wonder why the line dipped......reminds me of the maryland -eastern mich game last weekend....everyone appeared to grab the terps and it went from 35 to 33.....

maybe these forums aren`t a good indicator of public sentiment...

whatever.....g.l. tonight....

 

[BASON]

Wish I could have warned you about ECU, but had no idea they were this bad. Both of these teams are terrible, but ECU takes the cake.

I can tell where they throwing the ball from the couch. Both QBs simply stare at their receivers the whole time. Houston simply overloads one side and takes advantage of one on one coverage on the other side.

Some coaches should just be coordinators!

 

[JEFF]

Oh I knew they were damn bad, but I thought this was their one spot. Bad handicapping, should have just played the under, far stronger play.

If you have a DI football team, how do you let yourself get stuck with two QBs as bad as theirs? Troth is easily the worst I've seen this year. If this team wins a game its going to be an accomplishment.

ytd 30-26, - 6.6*

Back at it this weekend.

 

[DR STRANGELOVE]

call me a sucker, but I have seen ecu play and my high school team could beat them easily,

gl though!!