Paragrin Sports
PITT -14 20*
KENT ST. -8 10*
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dr bob
Thursday Daytime College Possible Best Bets
Here are the possible Best Bets for Thursday's daytime games, with only San Diego State qualifying based on overnight lines. The games not qualifying as Best Bets are considered Strong Opinions.
**Kent State (-7 points or less) 76 Bowling Green 62
Kent State started the season 20-3 straight up, but the Flashes ended the regular season with 4 consecutive upset losses ? the last 3 of which were by a combined 6 points. While Kent does qualify in a very good 98-36-3 ATS conference tournament bounce-back situation, it appears as if the oddsmakers are pricing Bowling Green based on their entire season rather than their higher level of play with forward John Reimold (15.1 ppg, 4.8 rpg, 39.4% 3-pointers) in the lineup. My ratings would favor Kent State by 8 points using all games for Bowling Green, but I favor the Golden Flashes by only 6 points using only games for Bowling Green in which Reimold played. Overall, Kent State still has a solid 57% chance of covering at the current line of -8 points, but that?s not quite good enough for me to make them a Best Bet. I?ll lay 7 points or less with Kent in a 2-Star Best Bet and consider them a Strong Opinion if they remain favored by more than 7 points.
**South Carolina (-6 points or less) 70 Arkansas 57
Arkansas? only win in their last 8 games was an impressive 82-66 home win over South Carolina and the Gamecocks will use that loss as extra motivation today. South Carolina applies to a 48-19-2 ATS conference tournament revenge situation and that angle is 20-3-2 ATS if the team is coming off a loss in their regular season finale, which the Gamecocks are. South Carolina is not quite as good without forward Rolando Howard (9.0 ppg, 5.4 rpg and 54% FG), whose broken wrist against Georgia on February 28th ended his season. South Carolina has played 14 games without Howard this season and using their ratings in those games would result in a fair line of South Carolina by 5 ? points. I?ll lay 6 points or less with South Carolina in a 2-Star Best Bet and I?ll consider the Gamecocks a Strong Opinion if they remain favored by more than 6 points.
**San Diego State (+6 points or more) 62 Utah 61
San Diego State and Utah met in the final game of the regular season, with the Utes winning 66-53 in San Diego. However, immediate rematches generally favor the team that lost and failed to cover in their previous game against the same foe and that?s especially true if the opponent is seeded #3 or worse (23-8-2 ATS). I?m actually basing this play on another situation that is 69-23-3 ATS and my ratings favor Utah by 6 ? points, so the line is fair. I?ll take 6 points or more with San Diego State in a 2-Star Best Bet.
**Stanford (-12 points or less) 69 Washington State 50
Stanford?s perfect season ended with a loss at Washington in their final regular season game, but the Cardinal apply to a very good 98-36-3 ATS conference tournament bounce-back situation and I expect them to play well today. Washington State nearly upset Stanford last week, but that close loss could serve as a reminder to Stanford that they need to take the Cougars seriously. My ratings favor Stanford by 11 points, so the line is a bit higher than I had hoped, but the Cardinal are still a profitable 59% play at -12 points, which is the number at which I?ll make them a Best Bet. I?ll lay 12 points or less with Stanford in a 2-Star Best Bet and consider the Cardinal a Strong Opinion if they are favored by more than 12 points.
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