late night nit: oregon/mason.......

[gman2]

assuming isu doesnt collapse (which it looks like they might do) , will roll that play over into :

oregon/george mason over 146

should be points galore here. both these nit games appear to be headed well under their totals. this late nighter should be the lone total to go over.

oregon put on a terrible display of shooting last week vs colorado. buffaloes slowed the tempo on em and oregon was out of whack. thats not their style. they couldnt even get the game over the number with overtime.

i think ducks make a concerted effort to get their tempo established in the first 5:00 of the game.

 

[Fabulous]

GMan

On the season Mason has averaged 72.2 points and give up 68 for a total of 140.2. While Oregon averages 76.3 and gives up 74.1 for a total of 150.4. The average of these two is 145.3.

In the last 5 games Mason has scored 64.6 and given up 58.8 for a total of 123.4. While Oregon has scored 72.4 and gave up 70.6 for a total of 143. The average of these two is 133.2.

Over this 5 game span, Mason has played Austin Peay, Tennessee, VCU, NC- Wilmington and Delaware, all at home. None of these teams are terribly dominate and yet the average total only hit 123.4.

The over/under for tonights game is 146, why do you like the over? I was leaning strong towards the under.

 

[bohawk]

G-Man2, beg to differ, George has found sucess slowing it down
latelyvs Tenn & Va. Comm. Also GM 1-7 U AW & 2-11 U TY
Org. 4-6 U @H & 9-11 U TY GL Playing George&pts&U

 

[gman2]

fabulous:

* im not a numbers capper. so my opinions often conflict with those who take a mathematical approach. it works for some guys, but thats not my style

* one thing i think youre numbers dont accurately account for:

austin peay and unc-wilmington are two of the best defenses in the entire NATION. so thats gonna skew some numbers. i dont think gmu is gonna have trouble getting their points on a pac-10 defense, even if it is a step up in class.

* oregon had to rally from (i forget the exact deficit) a double-digit halftime hole vs colorado last game out. i think theyre gonna look to have a much stronger start tonight and if they do that- it means they established their tempo.

both teams can score the ball with no problem. i think it breaks 150+.

 

[doochuk]

GOOD LUCK GMAN
I AM ON OREGON AND THE OVER

 

[gman2]

fabulous:

just to elucidate- uncw is #11 and ap is #16 in scoring defense out of 200+ division 1 teams

 

[Fabulous]

Yeah, but if you look at their schedule and results, they have not really played anybody. And when they did play against top 40 teams they gave up an average of about 70 points.

What do you think?

 

[KALBO]

Gman,
I'm on the over also. Also took over 68 in the 1st half. I agree with you about the Ducks wanting to come out and play up tempo!

Good luck!

 

[gman2]

fabulous:

theyre a colonial athletic association team. not gonna be a whole lot of world beaters on their schedule. just pointin out that austin peay and uncw are two incredibly tough defenses.

kalbo:

thats what im sayin. if oregon would have played a sound game vs colorado last week, maybe they would get lulled into a slow game. but with them letting colorado come into mcarthur and jump on them from the start.....thats not oregon basketball.

 

[IntenseOperator]

I'd be very wary of the Oregon Over

The money has been wrong all night.

There are a number of very strong trends favoring the Under here.

A bit of a trip for GM

No $$ for me on the total

I'm on Oregon laying the 8

 

[gman2]

There are a number of very strong trends favoring the Under here.

hook a brother up

 

[jv1]

Gman you on this one very big? About ready to pull the trigger on the over but wondered how much you really like it?

 

[gman2]

jv:

nah. just a regular play. doesnt make me any less confident but this is not a big play by any means.

 

[mj82]

gman, nice side with NO tonight... any thoughts on mason covering? i'm leaning towards the points.

 

[jv1]

Thanks g, will play it small and wait for the big boys on Thursday to hit the court.

 

[gman2]

glad i kept the play small.

got the pace i wanted. very much an up and down game. lots of shots attempted.

george mason is just so incredibly bad that it had no chance. dont even want to see the mason FG% at the end of the game.

1-1 on the day.

goodnight

 

[IntenseOperator]

sorry GMan

had to cut out for the night

didn't mean to leave you hanging like that

 

[Fabulous]

G-Man,

I was weary about GM's shooting. I was really focusing on their last 5 games and they have not put up the numbers, which is why I was on the under so big. I cut my play in half since you were on the other side but oh well. I got killed early in the night with FSU and I took Boise (I got them at +5-local bookie)as well so I needed that under and I took Oregon minus the points too. I have not seen much that I like for tonight, other than Hawaii for a small play. What do you think.

FAB