What I learned from 1st half

[NY Reb]

Play fewer games.

I always start losing money when I play too many games in baseball (more than other sport, it seems.) The trick seems to be to find the really good spots and then to have the discipline to stick to them and not go chasing something else as well. I've learned that it's always better to go 1-0 than to go 5-4.

Every night doesn't present a good play; but most of us look for one and play something anyway.

Look for dogs that have a chance of winning. Dogs win an astonishing amount of time. Check and notice how many dogs win on any particular night. I've learned that I have a much better chance to make money playing two dogs than I have playing two faves.

Here's one that's taken me two years to learn, but it's been a steady money-maker: bet Schmidt. If I bet every game that Schmidt starts for SF, I will make money. I hate playing large faves, but Schmidt is money in the bank. Even if you bet the run-line in every game that he starts, you'll still make money.

Look for opportunities to go with the Cards. Most of the time they'll win.

Be more patient. I doubt that anyone will ever make a lot of money real fast on baseball, but steady wisdom can produce a winner over the long haul.

Play fewer games.

Please share your own insights on baseball wagering.

 

[Blackman]

One thing I've noticed, especially this year: ride teams on hot streaks. Tampa Bay's win streak was profitable for a bunch of us, and a lot of us got hurt fading the Pirates during their streak. Teams on a roll, even bad ones, are very dangerous when they have that kind of momentum.

Reb is right on about limiting plays, in a season that is so long making a ton of plays a night can catch up to you in my opinion. I've seen a few guys pull it off, making money while playing like 8 games a night, but those guys are few and far between.

One other thing: don't chase on the late games. If you are up or down for the day, and none of the late west coast games were on your original card, don't play one of them just because you are chasing your loses or looking for a huge night. Take that steady profit and limit your losses.

That's what works for me, but we all have different methods to our madness. Just my opinion - for better or worse.

 

[pirate fan]

Baseball is definately a game of streaks. Regardless of the team, I try to ride with them, especially after 3 games of wins or losses. My Pirates went on two big ones, losing 14 of 15, then winning 11 in a row. The second one was much more fun. :clap:

 

[Lightning]

I've learned:

Once again ... the Yankees are the best team money can buy although the Red Sox and Astros tried.

My Phillies have five #5 starters rather than five #2 or #3 starters like I hoped.

The Phillies new Citizens Bank Ballpark is a junior Coors Field.

Very few teams and pitchers have the balls to pitch to Barry Bonds which is pathetic.

And lastly, that no matter what ... everytime I seem to post plays in this forum ... I lose my A$$!

moon1

 

[NY Reb]

LOL! Me too. Everytime I think I'll post my plays here, I immediately start losing. Maybe better luck in football.

 

[sharky17]

Reb.......I think this is a pretty good thread you've started here.....I enjoy seeing others' opinions, but it got me to thinking as well. Just what have I learned from the first half?

Horse trainer D. Wayne Lukas once stated, "There are three things a man can't predict the outcome of: a love affair, a ball game and a horse race". Geezuz, I don't think any of us can argue his first point, and the horses are tough, and I mean tough, but at the beginning of the year, I thought I was proving him wrong about the ball games. Now, I'm not so sure.....

So, I guess I learned that as soon as you think you've got something figured out, humility has a way of rearing it's head, causing one to crash back to earth as quickly as he ascended to success. I guess my point is that you just can't force the issue. As Reb mentioned, a real good play doesn't present itself every night, but I admit, the action generally lures me in to at least making a couple of plays, even when not feeling that strongly about them. PATIENCE AND DISCIPLINE ARE KEY. I really need to work on that one for the second half........When things are going well, ride it out, but when the struggles begin, it is best just to sit back and take it all in for a while. Apparently I'm a slow learner.....

That said, I will probably watch the first few days after the break and see who is going to jump out of the gates and who is going to stumble, but here's just a few teams I am going to be keeping my eyes on:

1) Oakland......I still argue this is the best pitching staff in baseball, and I am looking for Mulder to continue to pitch well, Hudson to step it up a notch, and for Zito to really improve. Harden and Redman aren't too shabby either as a four and five man. This team has a habit of getting hot, and when they do, look out...........

2) Houston......Are they really this bad? I would argue NO, and look for this team to get hot as well. Clemens, Petitte and Oswalt can be pretty deadly, and there are too many big bats in the line-up for them not to win some big ball games in the second half.

3) Texas.........Don't get me wrong. I've had some success betting this team, and I love their grit and heart, but somewhere very shortly down the road, pitching is going to catch up to this club. Ryan Drese has given a pretty solid effort at each asking, but he has not shown an ability to win any more than 10 games in a season, and he is not half way there yet.Then there is the 39 year old left arm of Kenny Rogers. One of my faves, but how long can he continue at this pace? If the answer is "not very", then who is going pick up the slack???? Pretty scary thought when you look down at the rest of this pitching roster.

So, hopefully we can pick and choose some spots in the second half and put some cold hard cash in our pockets.......

Sharky

 

[escarzamd]

PetCo is a pitcher's park......or SD actually has pitching. I know one of them is true :shade:

Cleveland is better than I thought, but w/ their young staff I see a late fade. Gawd they can rake it though.

Oakland will be very strong. Look for another move by Beane in the next 3 weeks.

Detroit Rock Kitties look like they'll be around all year. They have a young, but experienced staff that is learning how to win w/some runs....and the runs should keep comin' barring injury. I guess sending 'em out last year despite all the embarrasing "He's gonna lose 20" news BS is paying off.

Sorry Reb, but I see a little fade by the Cards. They have had ZERO injuries, and they are counting on close to 1050 innings out of those starters. Morris can pitch 240. The rest are suspect and the bullpen numbers are a ruse b/c of the protection they get from 6-7 innings from the starters so far. "Baseball is a war of attrition, and what's being attrited are pitcher's arms."

Thanks for the insight. Reb. I try to limit the plays to what I see. If its 8...its 8, but tightening up the next 3 weeks until some players move and trends shake out seems smart.

GL......Doc

 

[MACH1]

Nice job guys!!

I started series betting the last couple of weeks and it seemed to work out rather well. What I've done is simple really, I find 4 weak teams that are playing OTR, playing elite teams. I bet the RL on all games. Yes, it's a little bit risky giving up 1.5 to a road team, but it's well worth it. In these scenerio's you'll usually get a team that 1) Has no offense to speak of avg'ing less than 4 runs a game 2) A starting Pitching staff that is suspect 3) An overused bullpen that's giving up a high ERA. So, even if our "A" rated team is stinking the place up, you're still in the game in the late innnings, bc your pitching is well above avg.

Now, let's take a look at some stats and see if this system holds any water. I'm working with the 7 worst teams in baseball. KC, Montreal, Arizona, Seattle, Pitt, Balt., and Toronto.



Teams Record % losses %losses > 1.5

Kansas City 31-54 64 78

Montreal 31-56 64 71

Arizona 31-58 65 69

Seattle 32-54 63 76

Pittsburgh 39-47 55 77

Baltimore 37-48 57 71

Toronto 39-49 56 80



Based on 1st half stats and betting our worst 4 teams on the run line every game regardless, you would have come out 53%. Not bad, however we are better cappers than that, so we only bet when we think they are going to lose. As you can see, using these 4 teams we come out on top 73.4% of the time!! I haven't broken it down to road losses as of yet, but it sure does look juicy so far!!

This is exactly why I think these teams against the top teams in the league should lose a high percentage OTR > 1.5 runs.

If you have anything to add, please don't hesitate. If you have something that could make this even better, I would like to know about it.