BEGINNING FRIDAY JULY 23
Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
Philly takes on the Cubs after playing a two game set with the dreaded Marlins, with another four game set in Florida on deck right after this. That distraction might allow the visiting Cubs to catch them in a flat spot. Chicago is pitching well right now (3.70 team ERA, best in baseball) and they?ve got a trio of starters in Zambrano (2.61 ERA, Wood (2.59) and Rusch (3.43) who can throttle the home team?s attack. Philly has lost money at Citizens Bank Park (-$395) and may lack some focus. BEST BET: Zambrano/Wood/Rusch.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Reds have stayed competitive for the past four months, but their stats have always ranked near the bottom in the NL (4.98 team ERA, .253 team BA) and they may be a good team to go against the rest of the way. The Pirates? rotation has looked extremely sharp in recent games (2.24 ERA last 10 days) and they?ve been sensational vs. righthanders (+$1370). If the Reds had a worthy lefthander we?d consider using him (Bucs only 5-14, -$905 vs. southpaws), but given the current state of Cincinnati?s pitching, we?ll be backing the home team in this one. BEST BET: Pirates vs. righthanders.
Florida at Montreal (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Marlins need to pound away at the league?s weak sisters in order to keep from falling out of the playoff picture in the NL East. They?ve had success vs. the Expos so far (5-1, +$340 in head to head play), and given that Montreal has the worst record in baseball (32-59, -$2000), that success should continue. The Expos have gotten by with less than 3.3 runs per game this year, and they?ll be taking on a formidable pair when Brad Penny (3.14 ERA) and Dontrelle Willis (3.99) are on the hill. BEST BET: Penny/Willis.
Atlanta at N.Y. Mets (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
We thought it was impossible a couple of months ago, but don?t be surprised if the Braves sneak away with yet another NL East title. They?ve gone 28-15 within the division already (+$1305) and their pitching has looked especially sharp in recent days (2.83 ERA last 10). The Mets simply can?t generate enough offense (.253 team BA, 2nd worst in the league) so we?ll go with the visitor as long as Glavine and Leiter are taking a seat (Braves +$625 vs. righties with 5.2 runs per game). BEST BET: Braves vs. righthanders.
Milwaukee at Houston (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
After all the pre-season hype surrounding the signing of Clemens & Pettitte, the beleaguered Astros find themselves buried in the NL Central, just two games ahead of the cellar dwelling Pirates. Their losses so far are staggering (-$2265), and yet the prices we?re seeing on them remain unusually high. The overachieving Brewers have turned a tidy profit on the road (+$655) and are worth a try as underdogs in any matchup. BEST BET: Brewers in all games.
San Francisco at St. Louis (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
This looks like one of the week?s best matchups between two surging teams (Cards 57-34, +$1350, SF 51-42, +$445) who seem destined to reach post season. We?d prefer to use the Giants vs. lefties, but the St. Louis rotation is all-righty, and we?re reluctant to take the Cardinals in Busch Stadium, particular in the two weekend afternoon contests (Cards -$525 in home day games). BEST BET: None.
Colorado at Arizona (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
Don?t expect to see many tickets sold this weekend at Bank One, as the NL West?s two worst team put their ineptitude on display. But their might be an edge for the visitor under the right circumstances. The Rockies have solid numbers vs. lefthanders (13-8, +$795 with 5.8 runs per game), unlike the D?Backs and their astonishingly bad 6-26 (-$2470) mark vs. southpaws. If we get the matchup, we?ll climb on board. BEST BET: Rockies when lefty meets lefty.
San Diego at Los Angeles (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The only real chance we?d have to use the visiting Padres would be a lefty vs. lefty matchup (SD +$525 vs. southpaws, LA -$265). But david Wells is expected to miss this series, which means a steady diet of righthanders for the Dodgers (+$1755 in that situation so far). The Padres are in the red vs. righties (-$520) so even if the prices look a bit inflated, the home team figures to be a solid value. BEST BET: Dodgers when righty meets righty.
Kansas City at Cleveland (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Royals are in sorry shape as August approaches (5.02 team ERA, .255 BA, dead last in the AL in both departments), and that 12-30 road record (-$1285) makes them even more unusable. The Indians continue to hover near the .500 mark, and we welcome the opportunity to take them against righthanders, especially here at Jacobs Field where they have excelled (+$980). Cleveland?s run production (over 5.6 per game) will make them a formidable foe as the pennant race heats up. BEST BET: Indians vs. righthanders.
N.Y. Yankees at Boston (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Red Sox can kiss away any remaining hope of capturing the AL East title if they don?t win at least 2 out of 3 at Fenway this weekend. They took 3 out of 4 from the Yankees at home earlier in the year, and their all-righty rotation matches up well against New York (Yanks only 16-17, -$1180 on the road vs. righties). Boston?s 30-15 record at home (+$680) is one of the league?s best, and their top rated pitching staff (3.95 ERA) has a distinct edge over the visitor, even more so with Mike Mussina joining Kevin Brown on the DL. BEST BET: Red Sox in all games.
Tampa Bay at Toronto (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Devil Rays had a helluva run, but they?ve lost some ground in recent days (2-6, -$430 last 10) and they could easily wind up back in the AL East basement before it?s all over. It?s unlikely they?ll see any lefthanders at Skydome, since Lilly is slated to have pitched in New York the day before, and their record on the road vs. righties is an unappetizing 13-23 (-$510). But Toronto is having a terrible 2004 campaign (-$1620 overall) and certainly does not warrant a play as a home favorite or small underdog. BEST BET: None.
Minnesota at Baltimore (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Orioles are reasonably effective at hitting the ball, particularly against righthanders (5.6 RPG), but their pitching has proved to be their undoing (5.02 ERA, tied for last in the league). They are 20-26 at Camden Yards (-$1005) while the Twins check in with a solid 16-11 mark vs. righties outside of the Metrodome (+$930). The ideal situation would be to take a Twins? lefty (O?s -$1545 vs. southpaws) vs. a Baltimore righty, and we?ll jump in if that scenario presents itself. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. Baltimore righthanders.
Detroit at Chicago W. Sox (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
Hard to believe these teams have yet to play a single game against each other, but the 19 games scheduled between them will have enormous impact on how things shake out in the AL Central. Both teams have excellent marks vs. righthanders (Tigers +$2075, White Sox +$1160), but are in the red vs. lefthanders (Detroit -$970, Chicago -$895). So we?ll pass when righty meets righty or when southpaws square off, and look to fatten up when we are presented with a mixed matchup. BEST BET: Lefthanders vs. righthanders.
Anaheim at Seattle (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
The Angels have already taken 5 out of 6 from the hapless Mariners (+$420) and after a hot streak (6-3, +$320 last 10 days) they appear poised to make another run at first place in the AL West. Prices may be a bit high on the road team, but Seattle has really hit the skids in 2004 (34-56, -$2760 so far) and their 8-17 record against lefthanders (including 2-11, -$1105 at home) makes Washburn (+$745) a good value here at Safeco. BEST BET: Washburn.
Texas at Oakland (3) 23rd, 24th, 25th
It?s time to start taking the Rangers seriously (52-37, +$2215) though we?ve seen how Oakland traditionally gets hot in August and makes their move. We can?t use Kenny Rogers under any circumstances (A?s 11-2, +$750 at home vs. lefties), but Zito and Mulder are likely to miss this series, which means the Rangers will see two righthanders over the weekend. Considering their success in that situation (38-23, +$2060, with 5.8 runs per game), they?ll be hard to pass up, especially if, as we suspect, they are posted as underdogs. BEST BET: Rangers when righty meets righty.