Week 5 -- Down and Dirty

[Blackman]

YTD: 21-13 +9.54 units


Lines seem tighter every week, going to have to get the shovel out and dig for the hidden gems.


One I just grabbed:

West Virginia +3.5 (-130)....line moving in opposite direction of what I expected, and where I expect it to ultimately end up, so I put it over a field goal before the public starts to hammer it (which I think they will but you never know). I know we have the unranked favorite over a ranked doggy angle, but I feel that trend would hold more water if Va Tech had demonstrated that they could beat West Virginia over the past two seasons. Besides for the Miami win last year, (which was one of the weirdest games of 2003 in my mind, I've never seen Miami look so flat) Va Tech did not beat anyone of note. West Virginia had a breakout win vs Maryland, who has haunted them for a few years now. This is the last real roadblock for them in their quest to go undefeated, and they'll be up to the challenge. I feel very good about having a top ten team catching points against a team that I do not feel will be bowl eligible this season.

 

[Irish]

Good call Blackman
I feel the same way, JMU was more or less a practice (it was the replacement team for miami) this teams was looking forward VT!
GL
Irish

 

[Lost Hillbilly]

I agree...we so this a lot last year, what do these odd's makers know that we don't!!An unranked team favored to beat a top ten team...looks like a SUCKER bet. Miami of Ohio throttled someone last year like this, unranked but yet the favorite and kicked their ass!!Sothern Miss over TCU as well. I won both of those, but Tech beating WVU without a proven running game....NO WAY! Saw VPI play live three times this year, absolutely no imagination to their offense.

 

[smurphy]

Huge revenge factor though. I usually don't give too much credit to this because often the loser simply can't beat the winner, regardless of "revenge". But VT completely unravelled at WV last year. It was their low-point. They completely lost it - even Beemer blew up at a player. Probably the low-point of the last 5 years for the entire program was that game. I'm sure VT has had this game circled for redemption since Spring. I'd even go so far as to say they were looking past NC State (a really dumb thing), but this WV game is probably the most important of the year for VT because of what happened last year.

 

[wareagle]

GL BMan!!! Any thoughts on Wake +10' i like em

 

[Blackman]

GL BMan!!! Any thoughts on Wake +10' i like em

I would lean to Wake, just because they have a knack for staying in games and don't make a ton of mistakes, but don't have a strong feeling either way on this one. NC State is a tough team to figure out in my opinion, so I can't get a great read on this game. Do think Wake has the ablility to keep it close though.

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

GL BM!! Always read your posts......

 

[ajoytoy]

gl on your plays this weekend B!


toy

 

[RexBudler]

gl this weekend buddy

 

[Blackman]

Minnesota (again) -13.5....well I waited all week to see this line, and it came in much lower than I expected. Thought 17 or so would be the the number released and happy to see it hover around 14 (seen the hook go both ways pending on the book). Here is what I see: Minnesota has a good, fast Oline and can run block, and two very talented backs that can run all over. Penn State's run d looks good on the surface at 97 yards per game, but last week did let a 5th string tailback/first string fullback run for 123 yards against them last week. Minnesota's defense is suspect against the pass, but Penn State's QB's are going to have trouble exploiting this. Robinson is out for weeks, Mill's still has a seperated non-throwing shoulder and third stringer Chris Ganter was 6 of 23 for 32 yards in his first duty of the year last week. Paterno has played guys with injuries in the past, and has said that Mills might get in, but Mill's at less than 100% isn't much to be worried about. A downside is that the Gophers could have Ann Arbor on the mind, as they travel to Michigan next week, but they are not that good to be overlooking Big Ten matchups. I'm getting them at the same line as I did vs Northwestern last week, and I feel good about that.

 

[Blackman]

Pitt/UConn over 46.5...first total of the year, hopefully I'm on the right track here. Both offenses are explosive, and both defenses can give up the big play (Furman only had 14 completions last week but got 282 through the air, while UConn tends to let teams hang around). Orvolsky is on a mission to look better than he did in his first nationally televised game, and I think he will. Pitt showed they can score in bunches late last week, and hopefully they carry that over to this game.

 

[Irish]

On the minny game, I was surprised at how low the line was too. I got it at -14 and with all the injuries PSU has and the way they have been polaying defense how can they stop the gophers RB's? I would think that line will go up by game time.

Nice write-ups as always...good luck this weekend.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Blackman]

Bowling Green -7....mostly a play against the Temple defense, who has given up at least 44 points against all the D1-A teams they have played this year. BG's strength is the pass, and they should have a huge game vs a terrible Temple secondary. (Temple giving up 248 yards per game while the BG passing attack averages 259.) Temple should score a few points, but the Bowling Green offense will be too much for them to keep up with.

 

[Blackman]

EDIT -- scratching AZ State, just a lot of variables I don't like.

 

[gman2]

heres some interesting bowling green stuff. personally, i like the bg play. theres one article in that link below that leads me to believe they are going to bring a much better effort this week than they did vs niu:

http://www.toledoblade.com/apps/pbcs.dll/section?Category=SPORTS03

gl this weekend my man.

 

[Blackman]

Weekly Teaser:

Bowling Green -1
LSU +8.5
Central Florida -2
Missouri -1
West Virginia +9
UL Lafayette -1

Risk .25 units to win 1.5 units

 

[Blackman]

UCF -7 (-130)...Central Florida has played three big boys and lost, while Buffalo's 0-4 start isn't exactly against world beaters. Just feel I'll take the team that is much more battle tested and has had two weeks to prepare of this game. After dealing with Wisconsin, Penn State and West Virginia, all three of which are solid defensively, what they see across the field in the Buffalo defense should look pretty easy. Buffalo's offense has been terrible, so I don't know if the news that they benched their starting QB is good or not. Either way I'll lay the wood.

 

[Blackman]

Last one:

Eastern Michigan -7...can't believe I'm laying chalk on this team but Idaho is playing their 5th straight road game, and the first four have not been pretty, losing by an average of 44-8. Idaho is 117th out of 117 teams in America in scoring and 117th out of 117 teams in points allowed, doesn't get much worse than that. E Mich can score some points, but can't stop anyone, but will Idaho be able to sustain drives without shooting themselves in the foot?

 

[IntenseOperator]

GL Blackman

 

[watrdogg]

Good luck!!