saturday ncaa basketball.....

gman2

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very big play -- kansas jayhawks under 139.5
of all the totals ive played this year (11-4), this is the biggest one to date. odom will not let this game turn into a track meet. if usc needs to walk the ball up the floor, i think they will. south carolina has been a great under team for me the last year or so. counting on this to be another time.

tennessee volunteers (+6)
vols had an impressive opening game of the season vs stanford (although that win doesnt look so great now) and since then theyve been garbage. im undeterred, as i think theyre a lot better than theyve shown. plus, theyre back in the dog role, which has always suited them better. at the very worst, theyre a pretty decent fundamental team (high ft%, high 3pt%, low turnovers).

gonzaga bulldogs (+6)
no earth shattering logic here. just think this game is a coin flip and zags are far more efficient at the line than the jackets (77% vs. 61%). anytime theres a 10+% differential in free throw shooting, its almost an obligatory play. dont think tech should be laying this many on a neutral court, especially one out west. that illinois debacle really woke gonzaga up. with knight back, this team is gonna be tough to beat.

east tennessee state bucs (+13)
etsu has been a huge disappointment this year, but feel this is an overlay. contrasting styles, as odu is more of a halfcourt team and etsu is run and gun. no doubt odu is a solid group, but i dont think theyre gonna be able to score enough to keep etsu from covering. sure wouldnt hurt if tim smith would get his head out of his ass this year. 35% from the floor along with 3.6 assists/ 3.1 turnovers pretty much explains why etsu is 3-5. but this team still has loads of talent and i guess im a sucker for thinking this line is way too jacked.

southern california trojans over 143.5
brief writeup below.

forgot to post the actual # i got on kansas. got a 139.5. saw 141 in some places now, so better #s available.
 
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loophole

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cudos on your work thus far this season, but i'm taking the lobos over the vols. tennessee hasn't shown me anything to make me believe that they are ready to put in a full, solid game in a difficult road venue. and lou henson has the lobos playing back to their old home court edge in "the pit" - it's been awhile since new mex failed to cover a short number like this at home. meanwhile, the vols just never seem to be able to close the deal on the road. g/l tomorrow, and keep up the good work.
 

gman2

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southern california over 143.5

numbers seems really soft. i know wmu isnt as explosive as last year, but their system still is based on the transition game. the loss of williams doesnt seem to be affecting them as much as i expected. lots of guys are stepping up this year. trojans have been a good over team for me. should see a game in the high 70s.
 

gman2

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sun:

i think youre right. only watched bits and pieces of the 1h but if wmu gets going even a little bit, think it will bust the number.

btw- you got anything for me today? anything down in the southwest you like?
 

Sun Tzu

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Not too enthralled with the rest of card today. Played Seton Hall, Kentucky 2nd half, NYGiants, Marquette and a tiny play on Horns when line got absurd. Tailed your USC over. I am probably going to play Colorado State - that may be it for the day.

Check that -played NW - big difference there!
 
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gman2

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ST:

found a nice 5.5 on colorado state. count me in. lets get it done.
nice start to the day for you. glad you hit wmu over as well. take care.
 

gman2

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dirk:

initial reaction is that the gonzaga total is really low. both teams are capable of putting up 80. i think number is a little soft because gatech has played some teams so far this year that either lack firepower or really slow the game down (jmu last time out, air force, georgia). since im not one for playing the side and total of the same game, cant play the over. but that would definitely be my lean.
 

gman2

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unlv rebels 2nd half over 76

not sure if its been noted here before, but osu has been a 2h over machine lately. not sure why they wait till the 2h to run and gun, but thats the way its been. vegas has no choice to but to really get out in transition. only fear is that it turns into a blowout and unlv mails it in, but my gut says rebs climb back in it and win the 2nd half. but more confident that we'll see 80-83 2h points.
 
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