Final Analysis

[Eddie Haskell]

Just curious, with this being the last real game of the NFL season, how did everyone do this year on the NFL games. In other words, did you make money or lose money on your NFL bets this year. Last question, will your bets on the super bowl decide whether or not you had an overall winning season this year.

Eddie

 

[Penguinfan]

1. OK

2. Made money

3. No

 

[Eddie Haskell]

Looks like your my only friend, Pengie. Congratulations on making some bucks. Do you generally make money in the NFL or go up and down.

Eddie

 

[SlySi]

Made money up until the playoffs. Lost most of my games in the playoffs. But won some of it back in Superbowl.

 

[GM]

Got my teeth kicked in badly the first 6 weeks of the year. Took a week off...the first time in 8 years I have ever sat out an entire weekend. In those first six weeks I had three disastrous weeks, including the two worst weeks of my 'capping life, and that really took a huge chunk out of the bankroll. Gradually clawed my way back after taking that week off, winning something like 7 of the final 10 weeks of the season. Had a great week 17 to end the regular season only down a few units. Lost a bit Wk1 of playoffs, made large bets and won them in Wks 2 and 3, which put me in the black (temporarily) for the only time all year. Lost money on the Superbowl. Ended up marginally down when it was all over. Hell of a ride.

Second time in eight years I've lost money for the season. And yes, the Superbowl was the deciding factor. In fact, the final TD was the deciding factor, as it not only blew my NE cover, but also my futures bet on AFC-NFC Under 44? (which I locked into early in the playoffs figuring the total on any Pitt/Phil or NE/Phil matchup would be nowhere near that number. Wrong. A double kick in the ass). I'm probably the only guy on the whole board who lost on the Under on this game. :cursin:

 

[THE KOD]

Ended up losing about 1500 but was down 5,000 at one point in the season. So I felt like I won even though I lost. Does that make sense ? At least thats how I rationalize it.

 

[Blackman]

Strange season for me, I usually do well the first few weeks but this year got hammered out of the box. I think this has a direct coorelation to the amount of attention I paid to baseball last summer, which took away from my training camp and NFL summer research. Anyway around week 6 it started to turn around and I clawed back to around even as the season came to a close. Thanks to the Jets, Pats and Eagles in the postseason I went 7-0 in the playoffs and have something to show for my troubles.

Overall the season was hard to get into a groove. I think it's because a lot of the perenial doormats emerged as solid clubs while some of the big boys struggled, especially early. Good thread, there is definetly a lot to learn from this season and to put to use in the future.

 

[Penguinfan]

Looks like your my only friend, Pengie. Congratulations on making some bucks. Do you generally make money in the NFL or go up and down.

Eddie

Edward, I coat-tail my friend who runs a service and thats about it. He's the one I posted about the last week of the season when he was needing a big day to cash a check. He also posts here infrequently. When he wins, I win, it really is that simple when it comes to the NFL. I am more of an investor than a handicapper during the football season. My game is the NHL and horses, nothing more, a man has to know his limitations.

 

[hogman14]

It was a rough year. Seems like a lot of old systems (home dogs, divisional dogs, etc.) have bit the pipe the last few years, and you just have to pick and choose your spots, and carefully. The AFC killed the NFC ATS and SU this year...
I did well during the playoffs, when there are supposedly "sharper lines" and tougher games, so I don't know.

 

[THE HITMAN]

Had a rough start the first two months but was on fire in colleges. Finished really strong, backing mostly Phil, Pitt & NE the last few months. Colleges then went a bit sour and only was plus a unit or two there. Foots are my strongest sport and I post winnings on the average of 4 out of 5 years. Lost the Super Bowl with NE, but hit the under & missed on 4 of 6 props. Did very well with season over/under bets. I go conservative towards the end, tho, and only wagered about 10% of my winnings on that gamewhich were +28 to +30 units........a bit more if you count the $1200 I cashed for in Madjack's contests. All in all, a good year. But, Super bowl was not a deciding factor this year.

Now comes bases, where, even tho it is considered the easiest of all to hit, I never seem to come out ahead !! Ugh.

 

[ELVIS]

my year was great until i was too greedy on the sd vs. ny game. ended up losing 200.00 for the year, on football. not too shabby considering.....



if sd wins i probably finish up 5,000. too greedy

 

[Eddie Haskell]

Generally do you guys think systems work? By work, I mean if you follow a system (like in blackjack) do you find that you make money over time, break even or lose. Seems to me that a system (like always bet the home dog on Monday night) will not, in the long run, make money.

Also, I noted that Penguinfan follows a friend in a service. It seems to me that services, may be hot one year and ice cold the next. Do you really think they have any more information than you and that they can generally predict the outcome better than you can.

Inquiring minds want to know.

Eddie

 

[bombercoops]

Started off with a hit it college that saw me down about 15 units at one point. Stormed back through the middle of the season right through to the end and ended up finshing up 26 units for the season due to hitting a few large plays, namely NE vs the colts & NE vs the steelers. Almost ran the table in the playoffs and had a solid bowl season. I'm sure it will not take long to give it back in the basketball come march along with the Australian football which starts in about a month or so.

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

Excellent season for me! Gained over 70 units of profit and ended with a winner in the SB on Philly! Wish this season wouldn't end. Didn't post much in the playoffs as the regular season is where I see better opportunities. Until next season....GL! Can't wait for baseball!!

 

[RIGHT SIDE]

OH...and I think systems DO work Eddie. This entire thing is based on patience and time and not making everything in one night. If you find a system or pattern that's hits a high % over the long haul.....that's what I like and use. Of course, many other aspects can be used, but to answer your question systems definetly do work if you have the patience. Gotta do your thorough research though....GL! STAY AWAY FROM SERVICES!! Ever since I stopped using those many years ago that's when I started having huge success in this business.

 

[ocelot]

I had my 2d straight losing year in NFL but gains from year before that offset these past 2 losing years. I am strictly a systems player and experienced much the same as GM this year.

Systems are the only way I will play from now on. But am going to do some offseason overhauling.

 

[Penguinfan]

Also, I noted that Penguinfan follows a friend in a service. It seems to me that services, may be hot one year and ice cold the next.

Edward, the guy I follow ( and actually do NHL for) I follow blindly for football because he is good at is, period. He can handicapp NFL like nobody I have seen and he has cashed a big check in the Hilton Super Contest two of the last three years, in fact this year he got enough points that would have won the thing the last two years :cursin: .
I'm not saying anyone should blindly follow a service simply for the reason you state, they are hot and cold and probably have no more info than you or I do, just that in this case he really knows the NFL a bit better than most people do.

As far as systems go, I ignore them completely. You see a ton of guys on these very forums who will give out plays based on the fact that more dogs coverd than favorites last week so this week the favs are due?!?!? My personal favorite is that team A is 5-2 ATS against team B so team A is the play, never mind that those 7 previous games were played over the past 14 years, they MUST still be relevant, right?

Anyway, handicapping is like any other profession in life, there are some people who are just better than others at what they do, if I had a legal problem I would want the best laywer I could find, I want to bet on a game I follow the best handicapper I know, only makes sense.

 

[ScreaminPain]

Generally do you guys think systems work? By work, I mean if you follow a system (like in blackjack) do you find that you make money over time, break even or lose. Seems to me that a system (like always bet the home dog on Monday night) will not, in the long run, make money.

Inquiring minds want to know.

Eddie

I use a computer system that I devised after several years of "tweaking". It is based on performance only---not angles (home dogs, etc.)

I didn't wager on any games until th 4th week. Then my system worked very well thru week 12. Vegas lines usually get incredably sharp the final weeks of the season and I begin using more teasers in my games. Plus the fact that injuries are more of a factor and locked teams are resting players in the last weeks.

I rode Pitts. and San Diego thru their awesome ATS winning streaks and made a lot of money during the middle of the season. The post season treated me unkind as I lost on Pitts. and S.D.

My only Super Bowl bet was a small teaser on Phil and the under. I rarely find good value on the Super Bowl but I always bet something.