maryland under 148.5
went with the over 149 maryland/tcu on saturday. coming back with the under 148.5 tonight. in the early rounds of the nit, id never touch an under simply because the defense is often non-existent. but now that were down to the final four, i think its safe to say that all four remaining teams are motivated and i think south carolina is going to look to control the tempo here. odom has never been a run-n-gun coach and i just dont see him having his guys run with maryland. both teams are playing in the garden for the first time (i dont think maryland has any players remaining from the team that played in the preseason nit a few yrs ago) and id be really surprised if this one goes much higher than 141 or 142. (incidentally, both joes and memphis have played at msg so i dont think there will be much of an 'adjustment period' for those two). neither team is proficient from the 3pt line (both teams sub-34%) and south carolina is abysmal from the line. thats what makes them so hard to back tonight, even though the points are tempting. maryland holds a +12% edge from the line, which is enormous (maryland 73%/usc 61%). its actually pretty amazing that usc has even made this far considering their 3pt/free throw splits have been awful:
vs. georgetown
3/10 3pters
16/31 free throws
vs. unlv
3/14 3pters
18/32 free throws
vs. miami
7/17 3pters
10/18 free throws
obviously south carolina has to be doing something right, and they have -- on the defensive end. i think this one will be a tight game throughout and the pace should be pretty reasonable to keep this one in the high 130s or low 140s. maryland has been jekyl and hyde 1st half/2nd half in the NIT. if they bring a reasonable defensive effort, should get the under 148.5 (they did, after all, hold oral roberts to 32% 2nd half shooting, davidson to 25% 2nd half shooting, and tcu to 34%)
went with the over 149 maryland/tcu on saturday. coming back with the under 148.5 tonight. in the early rounds of the nit, id never touch an under simply because the defense is often non-existent. but now that were down to the final four, i think its safe to say that all four remaining teams are motivated and i think south carolina is going to look to control the tempo here. odom has never been a run-n-gun coach and i just dont see him having his guys run with maryland. both teams are playing in the garden for the first time (i dont think maryland has any players remaining from the team that played in the preseason nit a few yrs ago) and id be really surprised if this one goes much higher than 141 or 142. (incidentally, both joes and memphis have played at msg so i dont think there will be much of an 'adjustment period' for those two). neither team is proficient from the 3pt line (both teams sub-34%) and south carolina is abysmal from the line. thats what makes them so hard to back tonight, even though the points are tempting. maryland holds a +12% edge from the line, which is enormous (maryland 73%/usc 61%). its actually pretty amazing that usc has even made this far considering their 3pt/free throw splits have been awful:
vs. georgetown
3/10 3pters
16/31 free throws
vs. unlv
3/14 3pters
18/32 free throws
vs. miami
7/17 3pters
10/18 free throws
obviously south carolina has to be doing something right, and they have -- on the defensive end. i think this one will be a tight game throughout and the pace should be pretty reasonable to keep this one in the high 130s or low 140s. maryland has been jekyl and hyde 1st half/2nd half in the NIT. if they bring a reasonable defensive effort, should get the under 148.5 (they did, after all, hold oral roberts to 32% 2nd half shooting, davidson to 25% 2nd half shooting, and tcu to 34%)
