well last night has been a long time coming but 5 of my parlays hit with 2 just missing when texas lost in bases and another when cards lost. my average parlay is between 10 and 25 dollars but i play between 4 and 12 teams. i was down to 3 dollars and change in one of my accounts and was about to just stick to having only one and not redeposit. i put the 3 dollars on a 12 teamer with bulls and under along with 9 baseball teams. the 12th pick is under 190 in the spurs game on sunday. well they all hit last night and now i have that one play to win almost 3000. should i should play over for 1500 or perhaps wait for line movement? i can't see it going up only down. going to wait for the red hot cappers on sunday to post their plays but any advice is appreciated. thanks
need advice on parlay
- Thread starter lowell
- Start date
I would only play half of the expected winnings on the over if the total drops to where it is a profitable expected middle attempt. If you can get over 188, you might want to consider putting something on the over. If you can get 187, it is defiitiely worth it to middle, so why not? I normally would say hold the bet, but it seems to be an above average hit for you, and that you need the money. Winning nothing would be a very bad outcome for you. If this is not the case, then hold. If it is accurate, do what you feel is best. But wait on the total. I think you will get 188. I like the under myself, but when you can get a gap of more than 2 on a total, its a profitable sitaution to middle.
thanks for advice. hope total drops before game time. bruce bowen is looking forward to matchup with ray allen. slow him down and seattle may not score more than 85 points.
total is now 188. going to put 500 on the over and do a 3 team 7 pt tease with miami -3, over 181 spurs and probably spurs minus 1.5. will probably do tease for 500. i will either make 2 dimes today or about 1 dime. any other advice is appreciated. i would love to see it land on 189.mack the knife said:
wait...the line on the total will go to 187 or less. every half point is worth it....
as i said before, the under is the right side, but he middle attempt makes this worth it for some of it. would not (a) tease and especially not (b) with a total--the points are not worth as much as they are for sides. Besides, the under is the right side. Don't use a tease as a hedge. Middle some on the over, but don't tease to hedge. I could easily see a 96-83 game.
mia and SA are the right sides here.
as i said before, the under is the right side, but he middle attempt makes this worth it for some of it. would not (a) tease and especially not (b) with a total--the points are not worth as much as they are for sides. Besides, the under is the right side. Don't use a tease as a hedge. Middle some on the over, but don't tease to hedge. I could easily see a 96-83 game.
mia and SA are the right sides here.
good luck. i hope it works out. do what you think is right, not what i or anyone else says. all I'm saying is that the middle opportunity is profitable between 187.5 and 190, so I would do it, even if I was sitting on an under 190 and liked it---187 and is probably more profitable to middle than to hold. And mathematically, the tease is not worht it for the reduced payout is greater than the value of the points you buy, especially for totals. My estimate is side points are worth 8, maybe 9 cents, depending on the line, but a half point on a total is maybe 5cents, or 6. Teasers costs more than 10 cents for every half-point.
