wsop odds to make final table

[wareagle]

i see some value with some of the odds here....what do you guys think. i put 10$ on chip reese and john juanda

thoughts???

Alan Betson 150-1


Alan Goehring 90-1


Alex Brenes 125-1


Allen Cunningham 125-1


Amir Vahedi 125-1


An Tran 150-1


Andrew Bloch 175-1


Andy Bloch 200-1


Annie Duke 125-1


Antonio (Magician) Esfandiari 85-1


Asher Derei 125-1


Barny (Barmy) Boatman 175-1


Barry Greenstein 60-1


Ben Affleck 225-1


Ben Roberts 225-1


Bill Gazes 150-1


Billy Baxter 125-1


Blair Rodman 150-1


Brent Carter 175-1


Carlos Mortensen 75-1


Chau Giang 140-1


Chip Jett 120-1


Chris (AA) Grigorian 125-1


Chris (Jesus) Ferguson 60-1


Chris (Syracuse) Tsiprailidis 175-1


Chris Bigler 125-1


Chris Moneymaker 225-1


Dan (The Man) Harrington 60-1


Dan Alspach 175-1


Dan Heimiller 175-1


Daniel Larsson 175-1


Daniel Negreanu 40-1


Danny Nguyen 175-1


Dave (Devilfish) Ulliott 60-1


Dave (El Blondie) Colclough 100-1


David (Chip) Reese 165-1


David (The Dragon) Pham 90-1


David Chiu 125-1


David Levi 175-1


David Plastik 175-1


David Singer 125-1


David Williams 175-1


Dennis Waterman 175-1


Dewey Tomko 125-1


Diego Cordovez 175-1


Doyle (Dolly) Brunson 100-1


Eric Brenes 185-1


Erick Lindgren 90-1


Erik Sagstrom 175-1


Erik Seidel 65-1


Evelyn Ng 175-1


Farzad Bonyadi 175-1


Frankie ODell 175-1


Gabe Kaplan 250-1


Gabe Thaler 125-1


Gary (The Choirboy) Jones 125-1


Gavin Griffin 125-1


Greg (Fossilman) Raymer 100-1


Gus Hansen 50-1


Harry Demetriou 160-1


Hasan Habib 100-1


Howard (The Profesor) Lederer 50-1


Hoyt Corkins 175-1


Huck Seed 65-1


Humberto Brenes 125-1

 

[wareagle]

Isabelle Mercier 175-1


James Van Elstyne 175-1


James Woods 250-1


Jay Lovinger 250-1


Jeff Schulman 175-1


Jennifer Harman 125-1


Jesse Jones 175-1


Jim Meehan 125-1


Joe (The Elegance) Beevers 150-1


Johan Storakers 125-1


John (Miami) Cernuto 160-1


John (World) Hennigan 60-1


John Bonetti 175-1


John Esposito 175-1


John Juanda 60-1


John Kabbaj 160-1


John Robert Bellande 125-1


John Shipley 125-1


Johnny (Oriental Exp) Chan 70-1


Josh Arieh 100-1


Julian Gardner 125-1


Julian Thew 225-1


Kassem (Freddy) Deeb 125-1


Kathy Liebert 125-1


Keith (Jet) Lehr 175-1


Keith (The Camel) Hawkins 175-1


Kenna James 175-1


Layne Flack 55-1


Lee Nelson 175-1


Lee Watkinson 150-1


Lucy Rokach 125-1


Marcel (Flying Dutchman) Luske 60-1


Marin De Knijff 150-1


Marty (Mad) Wilson 225-1


Mel Judah 125-1


Mel Meiner 175-1


Men (The Master) Nguyen 75-1


Mickey Appleman 150-1


Mike (The Mouth) Matusow 125-1


Mike Carson 125-1


Mike Laing 225-1


Mike Sexton 175-1


Minh Ly 125-1


Neil (Badbeat) Channing 225-1


Oneil Longston 175-1


Padraig Parkinson 150-1


Pascal Perrault 175-1


Paul Darden Jr 125-1


Paul Maxfield 125-1


Paul Phillips 70-1


Paul Wolfe 175-1


Peter (The Poet) Costa 150-1


Phil Gordon 125-1


Phil Hellmuth 50-1


Phil Ivey 30-1


Phil Laak 175-1


Philippe Marmorstein 175-1


Prahlad Friedman 125-1


Raj Kattamuri 175-1


Ram (Crazy Horse) Vaswani 75-1


Richard Tatalovich 175-1


Rob Hollink 140-1


Robert Williamson III 135-1


Rory Liffey 175-1


Ross Boatman 175-1


Rumit Somaiya 300-1


Sam Farha 100-1


Sam Grizzle 225-1

 

[wareagle]

Scott Fishman 100-1


Scott Gray 175-1


Scott Wilson 500-1


Scotty Nguyen 65-1


Simon (Aces) Trumper 150-1


Stan Goldstein 175-1


Surinder Sunar 115-1


TJ Cloutier 65-1


Ted Forrest 90-1


Thomas (Thunder) Keller 140-1


Thor Hansen 175-1


Toby (Spiderman) Maguire 250-1


Tom (Captain) Franklin 175-1


Tom McEvoy 175-1


Tomer Benvenitsi 250-1


Tony (The Lizard) Bloom 150-1


Tony (Tony D) Tam Duong 175-1


Tony (Tony G) Guoga 175-1


Tony Cousineau 125-1


Tony Kendall 250-1


Tony Ma 100-1


Toto Leonidas 125-1


Tuan Le 140-1


Willie Tann 165-1


Yosh Nakano 175-1


Young Phan 125-1

 

[TJBELL]

Where are the odds on Boundbook and Jack??

Sam Farha 100 to 1

 

[wareagle]

i know...i looked for them....

there is no fvcking field bet. i would be all over that bet even at 10-1

 

[MadJack]

fishman - playing well - 2 cashes and 1 second so far
seidel - playing well - 1 win and 2 cashes
tomko - has finished 2nd 2 or 3 times. always in there. tight player

me and boundbook

 

[Penguinfan]

Field to make the final table would be more like 1-5 in my opinion. No way the final table consists of only names on that list.

Although, there has to be a sponsor sportsbook that is good with prop bets who would take our action on Jack and Book. Someone should get something going here.

 

[SixFive]

Men the Master is going to have a good showing this year after getting sucked out on in '04. I think a woman is finally going to make the final table as well.

I'll take Men Ngyuen and Annie Duke.

 

[yyz]

6,600 in the field, and odds on about 100 of them?

Unlike a real sporting event, where the best will almost always beat the "pretenders", this thing is anyone's game!

Wouldn't you think a "field" wager would have to be left off of the betting board this early in the event?

Plus, the odds they are giving are a joke! Even the best players should be well above 100/1 IMO.

 

[Penguinfan]

Fishman at 100-1 seems like a bet to me. Phil Ivey is always the table captain whoever he sits with, but at 30-1 I'll pass that one. He should have made the Final Table in 03 if LuckyMaker didn't suckout for the 90th time.

 

[Penguinfan]

Forget about Howard Lederer, he has the worst luck in the main event every year it's sick. Jack hope you get him at your table.

 

[bjfinste]

What book are these odds from? I might throw a couple $10 bets out there myself. Obviously purely for entertainment value, but it'd be fun to have someone to cheer for...

 

[wareagle]

NOT A MADJACK BOOK


it starts with a s and ends with a k

 

[MadJack]

royal and mvp have wsop props up as well. compare the lines on the ones you like because there are some differences.

 

[Theboundbook]

Can't wait to see my name up there.... (Yea right)


Anyways, getting way way stoked Jack.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

theres value in zero of those lines. None.

6600 entrants + they are gonna try and squeeze a few more in I've been told. Getting 100 to 1 on anyone is a joke.

Do you guys realize how much luck you need to make the final 9 in a field of almost 7k. I don't care how good you play. Ask any person on that betting list and they will all tell you those odds are a joke. Maybe 1 or 2 of them make it, but trying to pick which one is like playing a slot machine with bad payouts.

I do hope you hit Wareeagle, love to see you make some dough, but there is zero value in any of them.

 

[wareagle]

theres value in zero of those lines. None.

6600 entrants + they are gonna try and squeeze a few more in I've been told. Getting 100 to 1 on anyone is a joke.

Do you guys realize how much luck you need to make the final 9 in a field of almost 7k. I don't care how good you play. Ask any person on that betting list and they will all tell you those odds are a joke. Maybe 1 or 2 of them make it, but trying to pick which one is like playing a slot machine with bad payouts.

I do hope you hit Wareeagle, love to see you make some dough, but there is zero value in any of them.

i know BDB...i am just putting 20$ for shits and giggles

 

[Penguinfan]

BDB, I agree the odds are light, but don't forget after everyone plays one day the field will be cut in half. It's not out of the question to say over 3/4 of the entrants won their seat on-line and are mostly hacks with at least half of them being dead money. Sure it will take luck, but there will be 3 or 4 pro's at the final table.

 

[GM]

I'd have to agree. There is no value here. With 6600 people competing for 9 seats, the straight odds of any one individual making it that far (assuming all players are equal in ability) is 1 in 733.

Interesting to see that Moneymaker is considered only slightly more likely to make it to the final table than James Woods or even Mr. Kotter (Gabe Kaplan). Then again, highly unlikely any of them make it...so it doesn't matter.

 

[BleedDodgerBlue]

BDB, I agree the odds are light, but don't forget after everyone plays one day the field will be cut in half. It's not out of the question to say over 3/4 of the entrants won their seat on-line and are mostly hacks with at least half of them being dead money. Sure it will take luck, but there will be 3 or 4 pro's at the final table.

Penguinfan. I will book any amount of money you want that 3 or 4 pros won't be at the final table. Maybe 1. Maybe. Last year in a field of 2500 there were exactly 2 tournament pros at the final table Ariah and Harrington. Raymer wasn't. He played a lot but worked full time as a lawyer. David Williams was a struggling wanna-be pro. Not that he isn't good or not significantly better now, but he was a full time student at the time. Only since has he gone pro. Thats only 2 in a field of 2500. Now you are gonna get a field of 6600.

I used to know Danny back in the day and played a good deal with him when he was coming up in the late 1990's at the mirage. He always talked about it then that the main event should be a pot-limit game and I whole-heartedly agree with him. There is much more skill post-flop. Now it's a game of moving in and that's what internet players do best. Only about 20 percent of the field is gonna come from online qualifiers. But I would say at least 50 or 60 percent of the field will be online players if not more. They aren't even close to dead money. There isn't any dead money in the main event. Maybe 100 players thats it. Look at Varkoni three years ago. There has never been a worse champion. Moneymaker isn't a great force either. But varkoni tops the cake.

And for all the pub these players get, almost 80% of that list is backed in these tournaments and over half are broke. Tournament poker has so much luck invloved in it if you are talking fields of 7k. And the problem with all these so called on-line qualifiers that pros and others have to deal with is that they are unknowns and very difficult to put on a hand. Plenty of those big names you see up there are broke. I don't think people understand the bankroll needed to be an tournament player including expenses. It's enormous. Only about 20 people can do it on their own.

There is also 4 days of opening play this year as opposed to 2 last year. The field won't be cut in half early. I don't play tournaments. I'm happy 4 tabling the 15s and making a nice living. I'm not jealous of anyones success and wish everyone the best of luck. Maybe you are right and some pros will make the final table, but i'd bet anything that more than 2 don't. I guess it also depends on your definition of pro. But no chance of more than 2 on that list making it. I'd be surprised if one did.

Anyway, gl with your plays penguin and if you are playing in it this year, hope you jack and bound are sitting there in mj's gear.