Public Fade System Week 4

[theGibber1]

16-5 ytd

Lots of questions last week about using a bigger sample pool for a more accurate reading of public plays.

I guess i could pull more sources to get more numbers. But why?

For now, the system is working just fine the way it is. I have been using sportsbook.com.

It doesnt matter if there are 10 or 10,000 people on a game. Either way, the people betting on that site are obviously clueless and worthy of a fade.

So why tamper with it?

gl

 

[theGibber1]

this weeks fades

Sides

Cincy 89%
Colts 94%
Bucs 92%
Seahags 87%
Balt 82%
Oak 90%

Totals

Jags under 80%
Colts over 84%
Rams over 90%
Cowturds over 84%


As usual i will be on the opposite sides of all of these games. Still an experiment for me, so only betting .5 units per game..


GL

Gib

 

[lowell]

thanks for post. i will be following you on each for .5 unit.

 

[baby johnson]

cant wait till sunday

 

[Dizzayton]

Seahawks game- Don't understand why so many on Seahawks game. Skins seems like a pounder.

 

[sittler76]

Here is a real simple way to find out what teams to fade.

Give 10 friends (probably in a bar would be best)this weeks lines.

Any games 7 people or more out of the 10 say will cover the spread.

back the other side close to game time

 

[theGibber1]

Seahawks game- Don't understand why so many on Seahawks game. Skins seems like a pounder.

agreed

ive had my eye on this line since it came out

gl

 

[Morris]

Thanks for all the updates. Why the big % changes on last weeks games. Sat. games were a play and Sun. they were not.

 

[Dizzayton]

Seattle/Wash-I know one game I am taking this Sunday already-REDSKINS

Seattle/Wash-I know one game I am taking this Sunday already-REDSKINS

Thursday, September 29, 2005

Seahawks Notebook: Redskins a horror for Holmgren
Results have been too ugly for reflection

By DANNY O'NEIL
SEATTLE POST-INTELLIGENCER REPORTER

KIRKLAND -- Three years isn't enough of a chaser to wash away the taste of Seattle's 14-3 loss to Washington in 2002.

At least not for coach Mike Holmgren.

The second of his three losses to Washington in the past four seasons still sticks with Holmgren. It came in Steve Spurrier's first year as an NFL coach.

"It was an ugly game, just a brutal game," Holmgren said. "I remember talking to Spurrier after the game, and he goes, 'Boy, we just set football back about ...' And it was true.

"It was just the worst thing I've ever seen."

Unfortunately, it wasn't the only ugly game the Seahawks have played against Washington under Holmgren.

There are only two teams in the NFL that Holmgren has never beaten: Washington (0-3) and Indianapolis (0-2).

And against Washington, Seattle's offensive numbers have been consistently lower than against the rest of the league (see chart).

 

[Dizzayton]

Here is the chart

Here is the chart

CAPITAL OFFENSE

The Seahawks under Mike Holmgren are 0-3 against the Redskins In fact, they've never gotten 350 yards of total offense or allowed fewer than three sacks in those games:

vs. Wash. vs. others
Points 12.3 29.2
Net offense 281.7 439.4
Rushing yards 89.7 151.3
Record 0-3 52-47

 

[CryBoy]

Hey, Gib or anybody. Haven't read all of the posts here. How good is this system in college football? There are quite a few really lopsided favorites this weekend in NCAA. Example:

Eastern Michigan 94%
Bowling Green 97%

We don't think "Vegas" will lose 94 or 97 percent of the bets on these wagers, do we?

Thanks for your opinion.

 

[Daeg041]

Didn't do so well this week. 5 wins 6 losses for the fade system this weekend. Your not gonna win them all, but you need to pick and choose.

 

[bryanz]

Daeg , 5-6 ? what games went 5-6 on what day ?

 

[bryanz]

Last wk I combined sports book and clems fades for the NFL. Came up with a list of 6. Took the Bears off because of the late money on the bears and had 5 left. used my best judgment and threw out 1 more and hit a 4 team parlay.

 

[bryanz]

The one I threw out was a winner. My list was 5-1. I gave a heads up on CHI last wk in clems fades & the one I would not touch this wk is DET. Some that I follow that are sharp are on Tampa. No play for me because I don't like to be on the heavy money side,but can't go against these guys.

 

[MSM]

SOME OF THE % HAVE CHANGED, SO IT IS WISE TO LOOK AGAIN. HAVE DONE VERY WELL WITH THIS SYSTEM.
THANKS
MSM

 

[AM2kidz]

I agree on the Detroit game... A fade seems simple but I believe Cadillac is the X Factor... You know he's goona get the ball but he runs relentless... With a well rounded offense with passing and throwing TB is a dangerous team... And their defense doesn't hurt... GL To all... Hate betting with my heart so I"m staying away from this game... Am2kidz

 

[shamrock]

gib I believe you that on toomething here, but on the INDIANAPOLIS & BALTIMORE GAMES , the line has dropped from 7.5 to 7, so how could the majority be on the favorite?

 

[Ratslla]

Good Day & Good Luck!

 

[theGibber1]

gib I believe you that on toomething here, but on the INDIANAPOLIS & BALTIMORE GAMES , the line has dropped from 7.5 to 7, so how could the majority be on the favorite?

dont know what to tell you.. my book opened this line at 6.5