Week Card ( Sept 26th - Oct 1st)

[Irish]

VT (-10.5) over WVU
Get it soon because this line is going up. The hookies did empty the tank against GT but WVU struggled with ECU. WVU has played no one and they have strugled with the teams they have played except Wofford. Yeah the WVU beat up maryand but the VT defense will come in and punch the mounteers right in the mouth. VT has the edge in every postion in this game and it is a rivalry, so Beemer will have his boys ready to pla. Yes it was an emotional win against GT and the Hokies might come out flat but even a flat VT team should hang a pretty good number on this WV defense. They have a solid front but lack speed in the LB and safety spots. Playaction will work all day, but more important than that the VT defense will kill any form of offense the Neers try to muster. VT strips the ball and WVU gives it up, yes the game is at WVU and it is a big day for WVU but they just don't have enough.

Be back later with a LSU/TENN play

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Tenn (+6.5) over LSU
Not the easiest to play in death Valley and the Tigers have a lot to play for after a big win over Ariz St. But 28 points in the 4th isn't something I would expect a SEC team to give up. Tenn special teams accounted for 3 costly errors, including a fake punt deep in their end and not to mention a fumble. Still all those miscues and the Vol Defense was holding tight. Also a huge lesson learned was GIVE THE BALL TO RIGGS (73 yards in the first half and then the Vols tried to open it up and he finished with just 86). Tonight that defense and a running game is going to give the Tigers all they can handle. I don't like saying the tigers are mentally low with all that has happened but it won't help their cause. There has also been a big 16 day lay off for the tigers and after their offense sputtered to start against Ariz st it might have a problem starting again. Valued possessions, a heavy dose of Riggs and the Tenn defense keep them involved if not on top.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Fresno (-13) over Toledo
Toledo gets the wrath of a beaten Fresno team and a hurt Gradkowski. From what I have seen he is a game time decision but IMO he plays because he is a gritty kid and wants to help his team win. However this is what hurt them last year. Gradkowski was hurt last year and still played and it was not nearly close to establishing offensive effectiveness Cochran has ability but they just don?t have the scoring ability with Brad on the bench. Toledo has played no one and made short work of them, but now they travel to a hostile field on a national stage. Pinegar has been the leader of Fresno team and showed control of the offense, plus he can scramble if a play makes down. Wendell Mathis is a solid running back and the bulldogs have a good o-line. The Toledo defense has players but the aren?t the toughest in the NCAA. The question is penalties, the bulldogs were penalized 16 times for 155 yards that will not get it done. All those problems and 1 pick for the bulldogs was a loss in Oregon but this is a good Fresno team and Gradkowski not being 100% is huge a few hits and blitz?s on him might spell a world of trouble for the rockets.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Miami OH (-10) over Cincy
First I don?t like this much chalk with a struggling Redhawk team but IMO Cincy is no where near a proficient football team. Miami has played no one except Ohio St and lost to a terrible C. Mich team. However Cincy only managed 7 points in a win against Western Carolina and beat E. Michigan by only 2 points. So I am not sold on either team some home field advantage does play a part in this play. The Cincy team is very young and they have looked strong in some aspects but all in all they looked good against bad teams. Cincy was not embarrassed by Penn St but they scored the majority of the points toward the end of the game while the nittany lions had the game under control. Josh Betts is a solid QB but when he is pressured he makes bad throws and it leads to a lot of 3 and outs for the redhawks. Still with Betts Miami has 2 solid WR?s that can make big plays especially against a Cincy team that has a very poor secondary. Western Carolina actually should have won the game because a holding call negated a TD run for the catamounts. The Bearcats have had turnover problems and they will look to Glatthaar to set the tempo rushing the ball on offense something they are not used to doing because the coach wants to air it out. Brandon Murphy has to establish the rush for Miami to take pressure off Betts, if given time he can make big throws. Against Kent and C. Michigan the redhawks have opened the game strong. I just can?t get over Cincy not being able to muster at least 2 scores against a 1-AA team and allowing the 1-AA to move the ball on them all night. This comes from Cincy only having 5 starting seniors and 8 returning starters in total. The Redhawks take advantage of the lack of experience and on a national stage at home the Redhawks get it done.

Cheers
Irish

 

[ajoytoy]

hope you keep that streak going tonight Irish...gl

 

[Irish]

Air Force (+3.5) over Colorado St
The Falcons are 2-2 on this young season and they are 1-1 on the road. In their 2 loses they were by less than 3 points. Colorado St is 1-2 on the young season coming off a big win over Nevada last week. Air Force special teams have killed them in their 2 loses and they need to fix those problems going into CSU tonight. Air Force has some players banged up but they have talent in the players that will fill in. Now CSU head coach gave Air Force bulletin board material with saying the Falcon offense is nothing more that the triple option and they would not even play the pass. The Falcon offense is run heavy but the wishbone offense is not your average running offense it is very much QB decision making. Shaun Carney has been the Falcon leader but AF is looking at perhaps throwing Fitch in to change the pace of the game. DeBerry will not name his starter and he has two solid options but having this competition should make both Carney and Fitch practice hard and the competition should make this team better. This is a rivalry game with these two schools being 130 miles apart. CSU will be looking to its running back Bell to continue his success and keep his role even with original starter Ohaeri back in uniform tonight. I like the desperation of AF coming in off 2 loses by small margins, the fact AF is used to playing on a national stage (2nd Thursday night game in a row). I also like Minny ran for 355 yards against CSU and AF should be able to move the ball on the ground. Also like Carney or Fitch to make a play through the air if CSU plays 10 in the box. Jason Brown is a 6?4 target that can make big catches especially in one-v-one coverage. Should be a hard fought battle but I?ll go with the better offense scheme and the FG in this rivalry.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

irish,

very nice start to the week.....looks like drinks are on you!!!

good luck & continued success.

 

[Jtrain]

Good Luck Irish! Respect your plays...

 

[Shibby]

Excellent writeups and insight. Thanks for your posts.

 

[Irish]

UTEP (-3.5) over Memphis
Memphis is down to third string QB. The have a great running back but that is it and not the UTEP defense should over load the box and shut down the Memphis offense completely. UTEP out scored Houston?s spread offense which is the look they should see on Saturday and the running game of the Lobos scorched the miners for 149 yards and that just won?t cut it. Memphis is coming off a big loss at Tulsa in over time so they should be coming off a let down. In the fourth quarter freshman QB Barefield came in and lead the tigers to 2 scores. Still that is against Tulsa and Tulsa is IMO just a terrible defensive team and Memphis racked up a TON of rushing yards. Utep can beat Memphis through the air and running while IMO if the UTEP defense stacks the box the tigers cannot compete. Memphis is tough at home but Utep is a solid team and should shut down a one dimensional Memphis team. Plus the speed of Utep might be a problem for the Memphis defense.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Blackman]

Like the Utep write up -- need to look at that one myself.

Good luck this weekend.

 

[Irish]

Bowling Green (-28.5) Temple
The owls have given up 60 plus in both of their away games. Jacobs is coming off a big loss in Boise where he played pretty poorly. This is the first home game for BG and Temple is just a horrible football team. The Falcons put 40 on Wisconsin but looked less than sharp against Ball St. Still coming off the loss to Boise the Falcons will be looking to right the ship. Sharon and Sanders should have no problems making plays down field as the temple defense is just terrible. If the Falcons come out and look to open it up the Owls will fold quickly, the defense plays with their heads down and these kids have a ?here we go again? attitude. Toledo could have easily covered 28 but after a 21-0 first quarter the Rockets eased off the gas pedal. This being the Falcons first home game of the season and off a loss I would expect the coach to open up the play book and pour it all over Temple. The Bowling Green Defense is terrible against the run and the Owls can get a few yards. Also Temple has show the ability to throw the ball BUT the more they throw the more turnovers BG can create because Temples QB makes bad decisions and has 6 Int?s on the year. BG has to stop the run and force the pass and they should be on top all afternoon. Pope, Lane and especially Jacobs should look to have HUGE days and no one will be able to cover the spread offense. With Ohio on deck and coming off a loss, this being the first home game, all focus is on Temple.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Boise (-10.5) over Hawaii
Hawaii is terrible and even with a win last week they do not have a team that can compare to Boise. Getting out right crushed by Mich st and USC shows the warriors are not the team of years past. That being said Mich St and USC are solid teams. Looking at the Hawaii Idaho game the Warriors didn?t really dominate and they averaged a few points per quarter and only put up 41 yards rushing on 25 attemps. The Boise defense will more than likely stay in the defensive scheme that limited Bowling Greens high power offense. Not only is Boise coming off a big win but their QB play looked like what they expected to start the season. That home game was just what the broncos needed and they should make short work of Hawaii. I?m never a big fan of playing against Hawaii in paradise but this is a different team and even the beauty of the trip shouldn?t stop Boise. Last year with a better team Hawaii lost 69-3 in Boise. IMO the broncos come out and look to establish the same tempo as the game against BG, they may come in a little flat but the warriors are not a good team and have a very bad defense. Normally Hawaii would welcome a shoot out but now they just don?t have the fire power to keep up.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

UVA (-4) over Maryland
First off this is a recruiting battle and second Maryland is not a good team. Haggens has been under fire from critics but Al Groh has defended him and Haggens showed up last week. However that was against Duke and not a good team. Haggens threw way to many picks in his first few games and that has to do with shuffling at the o-line. But even when Haggens doesn?t get it done passing he can still make plays with his feet. Haggens has struggled but so has Hollenbach and he is also interception prone. Maryland has struggled against the run which will be music to UVA?s ears considering they have struggled to open up holes for Lundy. The Terps allowed 300 plus yards rushing against WVU and 100 plus games from the other teams they have played. IMO Maryland has played better teams but UVA has more talent. Should be an edge to Maryland playing at home but the UVA defense should create turnovers. UVA has to rely on the WR?s to not drop balls as they did in the beginning of the Duke game. Still Groh sticks to his game play and UVA?s passing game came to the table in the second half. Should be a tough game and both ACC teams will be scrapping but I like Haggens and the LBs in this dog fight.

Cheers
Irish

 

[soljah67]

Your games look good except Boise State. I have watched Hawaii play throughout most of my lifetime. And watched this year's Hawaii team play as well. I believe when its all said and done this year's Hawaii team is in fact better than last year's Hawaii's team. You say that Hawaii's defense is bad, but I beg to differ. If you seen what USC and Michigan State done to their other teams they faced, they would make any defense look bad as well. USC scoring 60 and 45 points and Michigan State scoring 61, 44, and 49 points. Both of these teams in my eyes have the 2 top offenses in the nation. Meanwhile versus an average offense in Idaho at their own stadium, Hawaii shuts them out. This is largely credited to the defensive schemes of Glanville, which Hawaii is starting to catch on to what he is trying to do. He wasn't the head coach of an NFL team for nothing, nor was June Jones. Offensively they are better than last year as well. Hawaii QB Brennan is already better than Timmy Chang and he is still learning the system and only will get better as the year goes along. June Jones said that he will be something special, and I think that hints he will go to the NFL after its all said and done. Brennan is completing 73% of his passes, threw only ONE INT (his very first pass of the season), and is an agile QB. The offensive line for Hawaii is the core of their offense as I feel that at least 3 of the 5 starters will go to the NFL. Not to mention they are deep at O-line. Reciever wise, they are better than last year's recievers for one thing, they don't drop the ball. Although they are only freshmen, they are learning fast. As far as at RB Hawaii will give Nate Ilaoa the start as he is a gamer. He did not play vs USC or Idaho due to injury, but he did do well versus Michigan State. Now that he got his blocking down, he will be used more often and be in for more plays.

Overall I just wanted to correct you on your analysis of Hawaii's team this year. They are better than last year and their defense is actually decent and getting better. I don't really like either side on this game as I feel ther are other plays of better value (Oklahoma, VTech, and Colorado are a few). But I would definately lean on Hawaii. You forgot to mention that Boise State does not play well on the road and lets not forget the refs may also play a small role in this game. Word is also out that June Jones and Glanville are coming up with new schemes designed especially for Boise State. I have a feeling that they will come up with an excelent game plan.

 

[INtheBLUE]

Great breakdown Soljah

Still don't agree with ya

But great breakdown!

 

[soljah67]

Great breakdown Soljah

Still don't agree with ya

But great breakdown!

LOL, I don't expect everyone to agree with me, I just feel theres beter games to play. I know you must agree with me on that one.

 

[tulah]

I enjoy your write ups & insight
I'm on BG & UTEP

I think Hawai+10.5 seems fishy...IMO that line should be at least 21
When Boise St plays on the road they just don't really play as well.
It's that simple. Plus the revenge factor is something that shouldn't go overlooked.

 

[FirstnGoal]

Nice insight...Bowling for Green $$ is also one of my favorite games for this week.

Good Luck!

 

[Irish]

soljah67

Thanks for the info, I agree the addition of Glanville will help them and they did shut out Idaho. But looking at points per quarter it is uncharacteristic that a Hawaii team is only scoring 1 TD per quarter against an average team like Idaho. The did play two monsters in USC and Mich St, but the offensive effectiveness isn't near what it has been in years past and replacing key parts will do that to any offense. Boise isn't the best road team but beating a terrible Idaho team didn't make me think their offense has come together.

Against Mich St Hawaii had the ball longer in time of possession and lost by 28, Mich St was up 28-0 at half.
Against USC Hawaii had the ball longer in time of possession and they lost by 45 and USC was up 21-3 at half.
Against Idaho the Warriors had the ball for 18 more mins than the Vandals and was winning 14-0 at half.

Hawaii has put points up on Mich and USC late in the ball game when I'm sure the effectiveness of the opponents defense was not at top speed. Then give the same opportunity against a poor defense they still did not open the "can of whoop ass" on them. The defense has improved, but they still for a spread offense relying on outscoring teams hasn't come together yet. Not sure I would say they are better than last years squad because if last years offense had this years defensive Co they would have won a few more.

Thanks for the insight, good luck to you this weekend. Mind you I'm not saying Boise will role them but I like what they did defensively against BG and they can use that scheme against Hawaii's throw happy offense.

Cheers
Irish