KANSAS STATE vs. TEXAS TECH ? October 15th, 12:00 PM EDT
Red Raider quarterback Cody Hodges appears to be filling the shoes of his gun-slinging predecessors quite nicely in Lubbock as he has now passed for 1,818 yards and 17 touchdowns in the five games Texas Tech has played this season. Tech has been the No. 1 passing offense in the nation for the last four years and HC Mike Leach?s boys seem to be poised to continue that tradition.
Texas Tech and Kansas State have played two common opponents already this season in Florida International and Kansas with the Wildcats winning their game over FIU by a score of 35-21 while the Red Raiders won in a 56-3 rout. In the two Kansas games, KSU came away with a 12-3 victory and Tech handled the Jayhawks, 30-17. Both of the teams in this Saturday?s game played against absolute cupcakes in their non-conference schedule yet Kansas State has been able to average only 28.6 points while Texas Tech is averaging 52.6 in their games.
At first glance, it would seem that Kansas State?s pass defense is pretty damn good as they are allowing just over 151 receiving yards so far in the 2005 season but a closer look show us that the five teams that the Wildcats have played are Florida International, Marshall, North Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Neither of these teams comes close to having the offensive fire power that KSU is going to see this week in Lubbock and Kansas is the only one in that bunch with a winning record at 3-2. This Wildcat team simply can not run the ball and in their two Big 12 games they are averaging only 0.73 yards per carry, gaining 22 as a team against Oklahoma and then following with 13 against Kansas. The Wildcats will not be helped by the inexperience of red-shirt freshman QB Allan Evridge who saw his first action last week at home and believe me, Jones SBC Stadium is a far cry from the adoring crowd in Manhattan.
Lubbock is an extremely tough place to play as evidenced by the Red Raider?s 12-5 ATS record as home favorites since 2002. Kansas State on the other hand is a bad road team covering only one of their last six on the road and only five of their last 16 overall. In those last six road games, K State has allowed their opponents to score over 33 points per game and in the last two weeks they have managed only 215 yards of offense per game. In the last three contests between these two teams, Kansas State has lost against the spread by a combined 73.5 points. I smell a blowout.
The Verdict: TEXAS TECH (-14.5)
SOUTH FLORIDA vs. PITTSBURGH ? October 15th, 2:00 PM EDT
Surprisingly, the 2-4 Pitt Panther?s defense is ranked 27th in the nation but considering that this distinction does not take a team?s strength of schedule into account, I guess it is a little easier to understand. The Panthers finally got a win against a Division 1A school by beating the Natti last week but I?m not ready to believe that this team has turned the corner. Pitt managed to put up 38 points against the Bearcats but 23 of those points were the result of a blocked punt, a punt return and three field goals. Pitt QB Tyler Palko went 14 of 32 for 172 passing yards and fumbled twice. The Panthers were able to convert just 5 of 16 third down attempts and RB Raymond Kirkley ran the ball 12 times for only 30 yards. In the end, the special teams had to bail Wanny?s boys out to keep them from falling to 1-5.
You?ll never guess who?s defense is ranked 26th in the country; that?s right, South Florida. The big difference is that the Bulls? five games have included contests against Penn State, Florida A&M, Central Florida, Louisville and Miami and while Pittsburgh opened their season with Notre Dame, the rest of their games have been against Ohio U, Nebraska, Youngstown State, Rutgers and the aforementioned Cincinnati. South Florida?s five previous opponents have only six losses between them and two of those teams are in the Top 10 while Louisville is ranked #19 with their only loss coming at the hands of these same Bulls.
South Florida dropped 45 points on an excellent Louisville team and managed 13 points against a very stingy Penn State defense that only allowed Ohio State to score 10 points last week. On defense, the Bulls are only allowing 16.2 points per game and were able to hold Louisville to only 14 points when the Cardinals have averaged 56 points in their other four games. South Florida currently ranks 13th in the nation in rushing offense with 231.2 yards per contest and on the other side of the ball, Pitt is averaging just 136.3 yards rushing per game. The Panthers? early showing has been a colossal disappointment as Palko appears to be going backward instead of improving and while his performance has certainly not been helped by the 20 sacks that the offensive line has allowed thus far, he is only completing 54% of his passes with nine touchdowns and six interceptions.
This week, I read of an article that put an interesting twist on this game. The writer of the article claims that South Florida laid down in their final regular season game last year against Pitt, essentially handed the hefty Fiesta Bowl purse to the Big East conference which was to be their new home beginning in 2005. Now Pittsburgh?s new head coach, Dave Wannstedt has begun recruiting heavily in southern Florida where he previously had developed relationships with the Miami area high schools and reports are that USF HC Jim Leavitt is furious over what he feels is a slap in the face. There is nothing like bad blood between coaches to get the players riled up and ready to kick some ass and with Pitt?s less than impressive performance so far and South Florida coming off of a bye week, this looks like a great spot for the Bulls to extract a little vengeance.
The Verdict: SOUTH FLORIDA (+1)
LOUISVILLE vs. WEST VIRGINIA ? October 15th, 3:30 PM EDT
The West Virginia Mountaineers are now over halfway through their season with a remarkable 5-1 record to show for their effort and a win this week against Louisville goes a long way toward earning them a Big East title. When the Cardinals stumbled against South Florida on September 24th, it opened the door for the Mounties and South Florida and if either team wins out, the title is theirs with Louisville left on the sideline.
The problem is that West Virginia's challenge this week will be to contain Louisville QB Brian Brohm who is completing 69.5 percent of his passes, has already thrown for over 1,500 yards, and has 10 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. Brohm is joined in the backfield by junior RB Michael Bush who has rushed for six touchdowns in his last two games, is tied for the nation's lead with 11 rushing touchdowns and is averaging 105.4 yards per game. Louisville offense is averaging 47.6 points and 498.6 yards each week and since the loss in Tampa, the Cards have piled up 130-24 point advantage.
West Virginia QB Adam Bednarik has completed 79.3% of his passes this season but he only has 58 attempts in six games and is averaging only 77 yards per game through the air in splitting time with backup QB, Pat White. This offense is all about ball control and the Hillbillies must run the ball consistently and control the clock Saturday to have a chance against Louisville as they rank 74th in scoring in Division I-A and know they can't get too fancy against Louisville. The problem with that philosophy is that Louisville ranks 13th in the nation in rushing defense by allowing only 92.6 yards per game.
West Virginia?s record has been helped tremendously by the scheduling of stiffs like Syracuse, Wofford, Rutgers and East Carolina, but Virginia Tech has been the only legitimate team on their schedule and the Hokies easily handled them by a score of 34-17 in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have struggled mightily in the 2nd half and have not scored a touchdown after the break in their last three games. I see the Cardinals pulling away in the 3rd quarter with a couple of big plays and never looking back.
The Verdict: LOUISVILLE (-7)
Red Raider quarterback Cody Hodges appears to be filling the shoes of his gun-slinging predecessors quite nicely in Lubbock as he has now passed for 1,818 yards and 17 touchdowns in the five games Texas Tech has played this season. Tech has been the No. 1 passing offense in the nation for the last four years and HC Mike Leach?s boys seem to be poised to continue that tradition.
Texas Tech and Kansas State have played two common opponents already this season in Florida International and Kansas with the Wildcats winning their game over FIU by a score of 35-21 while the Red Raiders won in a 56-3 rout. In the two Kansas games, KSU came away with a 12-3 victory and Tech handled the Jayhawks, 30-17. Both of the teams in this Saturday?s game played against absolute cupcakes in their non-conference schedule yet Kansas State has been able to average only 28.6 points while Texas Tech is averaging 52.6 in their games.
At first glance, it would seem that Kansas State?s pass defense is pretty damn good as they are allowing just over 151 receiving yards so far in the 2005 season but a closer look show us that the five teams that the Wildcats have played are Florida International, Marshall, North Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas. Neither of these teams comes close to having the offensive fire power that KSU is going to see this week in Lubbock and Kansas is the only one in that bunch with a winning record at 3-2. This Wildcat team simply can not run the ball and in their two Big 12 games they are averaging only 0.73 yards per carry, gaining 22 as a team against Oklahoma and then following with 13 against Kansas. The Wildcats will not be helped by the inexperience of red-shirt freshman QB Allan Evridge who saw his first action last week at home and believe me, Jones SBC Stadium is a far cry from the adoring crowd in Manhattan.
Lubbock is an extremely tough place to play as evidenced by the Red Raider?s 12-5 ATS record as home favorites since 2002. Kansas State on the other hand is a bad road team covering only one of their last six on the road and only five of their last 16 overall. In those last six road games, K State has allowed their opponents to score over 33 points per game and in the last two weeks they have managed only 215 yards of offense per game. In the last three contests between these two teams, Kansas State has lost against the spread by a combined 73.5 points. I smell a blowout.
The Verdict: TEXAS TECH (-14.5)
SOUTH FLORIDA vs. PITTSBURGH ? October 15th, 2:00 PM EDT
Surprisingly, the 2-4 Pitt Panther?s defense is ranked 27th in the nation but considering that this distinction does not take a team?s strength of schedule into account, I guess it is a little easier to understand. The Panthers finally got a win against a Division 1A school by beating the Natti last week but I?m not ready to believe that this team has turned the corner. Pitt managed to put up 38 points against the Bearcats but 23 of those points were the result of a blocked punt, a punt return and three field goals. Pitt QB Tyler Palko went 14 of 32 for 172 passing yards and fumbled twice. The Panthers were able to convert just 5 of 16 third down attempts and RB Raymond Kirkley ran the ball 12 times for only 30 yards. In the end, the special teams had to bail Wanny?s boys out to keep them from falling to 1-5.
You?ll never guess who?s defense is ranked 26th in the country; that?s right, South Florida. The big difference is that the Bulls? five games have included contests against Penn State, Florida A&M, Central Florida, Louisville and Miami and while Pittsburgh opened their season with Notre Dame, the rest of their games have been against Ohio U, Nebraska, Youngstown State, Rutgers and the aforementioned Cincinnati. South Florida?s five previous opponents have only six losses between them and two of those teams are in the Top 10 while Louisville is ranked #19 with their only loss coming at the hands of these same Bulls.
South Florida dropped 45 points on an excellent Louisville team and managed 13 points against a very stingy Penn State defense that only allowed Ohio State to score 10 points last week. On defense, the Bulls are only allowing 16.2 points per game and were able to hold Louisville to only 14 points when the Cardinals have averaged 56 points in their other four games. South Florida currently ranks 13th in the nation in rushing offense with 231.2 yards per contest and on the other side of the ball, Pitt is averaging just 136.3 yards rushing per game. The Panthers? early showing has been a colossal disappointment as Palko appears to be going backward instead of improving and while his performance has certainly not been helped by the 20 sacks that the offensive line has allowed thus far, he is only completing 54% of his passes with nine touchdowns and six interceptions.
This week, I read of an article that put an interesting twist on this game. The writer of the article claims that South Florida laid down in their final regular season game last year against Pitt, essentially handed the hefty Fiesta Bowl purse to the Big East conference which was to be their new home beginning in 2005. Now Pittsburgh?s new head coach, Dave Wannstedt has begun recruiting heavily in southern Florida where he previously had developed relationships with the Miami area high schools and reports are that USF HC Jim Leavitt is furious over what he feels is a slap in the face. There is nothing like bad blood between coaches to get the players riled up and ready to kick some ass and with Pitt?s less than impressive performance so far and South Florida coming off of a bye week, this looks like a great spot for the Bulls to extract a little vengeance.
The Verdict: SOUTH FLORIDA (+1)
LOUISVILLE vs. WEST VIRGINIA ? October 15th, 3:30 PM EDT
The West Virginia Mountaineers are now over halfway through their season with a remarkable 5-1 record to show for their effort and a win this week against Louisville goes a long way toward earning them a Big East title. When the Cardinals stumbled against South Florida on September 24th, it opened the door for the Mounties and South Florida and if either team wins out, the title is theirs with Louisville left on the sideline.
The problem is that West Virginia's challenge this week will be to contain Louisville QB Brian Brohm who is completing 69.5 percent of his passes, has already thrown for over 1,500 yards, and has 10 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. Brohm is joined in the backfield by junior RB Michael Bush who has rushed for six touchdowns in his last two games, is tied for the nation's lead with 11 rushing touchdowns and is averaging 105.4 yards per game. Louisville offense is averaging 47.6 points and 498.6 yards each week and since the loss in Tampa, the Cards have piled up 130-24 point advantage.
West Virginia QB Adam Bednarik has completed 79.3% of his passes this season but he only has 58 attempts in six games and is averaging only 77 yards per game through the air in splitting time with backup QB, Pat White. This offense is all about ball control and the Hillbillies must run the ball consistently and control the clock Saturday to have a chance against Louisville as they rank 74th in scoring in Division I-A and know they can't get too fancy against Louisville. The problem with that philosophy is that Louisville ranks 13th in the nation in rushing defense by allowing only 92.6 yards per game.
West Virginia?s record has been helped tremendously by the scheduling of stiffs like Syracuse, Wofford, Rutgers and East Carolina, but Virginia Tech has been the only legitimate team on their schedule and the Hokies easily handled them by a score of 34-17 in Morgantown. The Mountaineers have struggled mightily in the 2nd half and have not scored a touchdown after the break in their last three games. I see the Cardinals pulling away in the 3rd quarter with a couple of big plays and never looking back.
The Verdict: LOUISVILLE (-7)
