Solid 2 team moneyline parlay - analysis inside

[Save It]

Hey everyone,

Looking to continue another solid week and put together a nice NFL Sunday...

After some thorough analysis and handicapping the games - I have decided to zero in and make this one and only play - now as always may see a nice halftime play or add additional ones - but in my opinion if there is one and only play to make - it is this one right here:

The NFL play of the Day!
2 team moneyline parlay
Atlanta -260/Seattle -400
.77 to 1 odds
Risking $2,000 to win $1,540

I chose to do a moneyline parlay instead of teasing it down to Atlanta pk & Seattle -2, -2.5, or -3 - really feel strongly about both of these teams taking care of the task at hand and leaving Sunday with the win...

First off we will see if this play continues on after the early games have ended - we need Atlanta to win a road game at New Orleans. I never like to lay big points on the road - so felt best to take Atlanta on the moneyline to win - I really like how this team matches up - even w/ a hurting vick or Schaub who has done a nice job as the backup - just don't see Atlanta's running game being stopped by this pourous New Orleans defense...I really think the season ended for them last week when they learned Deuce McAllister - one of their true leaders - was out for the year...Aaron Brooks has been terrible - and really i think this team is falling apart...they've gone through so much in this early season and have been so inconsistent...

Atlanta will be focused and can get this done multiple ways - losing 52-3 for New Orleans at Lambeau last week - wow that was something - just don't think this team rebounds quickly from that loss, and Deuce's loss - and they weren't running the ball much or that great w/ Deuce, now Antowain Smith/Aaron Stecker take over? Their offense has been incosistent alll season long - and have to like Atlanta's defense to shut down the run early and also maybe create some defensive turnovers - maybe leading to points...in conclusion - if Atlanta goes down here - I will consider it a pretty big upset...most confident in Atlanta winning tomorrow in this game more than any other team

Now I know Houston eventually has to win a game right - I just don't see it here in Seattle on Sunday night football - my first instinct is always to look at the dog first - but just can't make a case for Houston coming out with the road win - if they do, i will truely consider it one of the biggest upsets of the year - and of course I am a seasoned sports bettor so i know upsets can & will occur - but I'd say with a high percentage of confidence Seattle does not overlook this struggling Texans team - they may not cover the 9 point spread, but they get the win...Seattle is my 2nd most confident win tomorrow

So I am risking $2,000 to win $1,540 on 2 teams I feel have the highest % chance to win their games outright this weekend at reasonable odds...

However - because I love hedging, and elimintating risk and guaranteeing profit when I am put into position to do so - this is what I am going to do - and recommend to anyone following this parlay to do the same...the way i see it if you like Atlanta at -6 then you must really like Atlanta to just win the game with no point spread - nothing worse than having the winning team, and say atlanta wins by 2, 3, 4, or 5 losing your play - so if Atlanta wins the game - we now need Seattle to win in the late Sunday night game...

As of right now you can get the Houston moneyline for +350 - and I would expect the line for Houston to hang around +9, or if anything else by later in the day maybe go back up to around +9.5 or maybe hit a +10...so i think the moneyline will be around +350 to +375 - let's say though that it sits at the +350 mark...what i will do if Atlanta wins is go back and lay this wager on the houston moneyline (remember IF and only IF Atlanta wins will i be placing this wager - if Atlanta loses this play will NOT be made):

Houston moneyline +350 Risk $600 to win $2,100

You may ask - well if you like Seattle so much, why bet the houston moneyline? Well, it's a hedge play - i like to put myself in a nice situation, if the opportunity arises...you should too...scenarios now are Seattle is my dominant team - and yes i expect them to win - so if Seattle does win, I win the $1,540 parlay, lose the $600 hedge play, but net $940 profit...now essentially you might say why not just bet the Atlanta moneyline -260 and risk $2,000 on that - well $2,000 would return $769.23 if i just bet the Atlanta -260 moneyline...this way I am essentially betting on Atlanta to win - but because I threw in the parlay w/ Seattle moneyline -400, i stand to win $940 profit - which is $170.77 more than if i would have just bet the Atlanta moneyline! Now that's smart thinking!

Also, now if Atlanta won, and Houston pulls off a big upset, then i lose my $2,000 parlay, but i win $2,100 on the Houston moneyline play - so i still net $100! If Atlanta wins, i can guarantee myself either $100 or $940 profit...sure i can just stay put and hold out for the $1,540 profit if atlanta wins, but if houston does beat Seattle, i'm out $2,000 - when i could have hedged out and guaranteed a profit - i use this tactic all the time, and it is a smart thing to do...I consistently win because I grind out the small profits...eliminate risk when i can...

One other option you could do, and I have done before - is you could put yourself in a nice situation to middle the game and win 2 plays - you can make a hedge play on the side of the underdog opposite the team you have in your moneyline parlay - for instance, say Atlanta wins, well i need Seattle to just win...well i could go for a nice 7 point or more middle - I could take Houston at +9, and if seattle wins by 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, or 8 win both plays, if they win by 9 push the hedge, win the main parlay, and if houston wins outright, well win the hedge play, lose the parlay...now you could determine the amount to put on this hedge play...you will win at least one of the two plays, and maybe both...I could for example even hedge off say $550 to win $500 on Houston +9 and if middled win this play, and also the $1,540 on the parlay, and if lost lose the $550, gain the $1,540 on the parlay - but it gives you a shot at a couple of wins

But for this game, i am just going w/ the Houston moneyline hedge if Atlanta wins...

Hope some of you learned something new w/ this - hedging is a great technique - and really can be a good way to catch middles and win multiple plays, and lower your risk after hitting your initial game in a parlay...

Good luck if you decide to play it - as always I only make a play if I feel I have an edge, and I feel this is a high % play and I hope it cashes...shop around and try to get best moneylines you have access to - always good to have plenty of books & options...and always only bet what you can afford to possibly lose...

Here's to a great day in the NFL! Wish you all the best! Go Atlanta & Seattle!

 

[fman33]

sweet

sweet

sweet parlay dude...thanks for explaining it to every moon1 :mj10: one

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Lets see if Jack is really enforcing the "no-bashing" rule

 

[Stag]

great advice...i do this all the time..the key is getting your first ML favorite or teaser leg to hit. Then that opens up tons of options. I do this with open teasers all the time.hoping to hit middles and also lower my risk.
This is the way to go..long-term, in my humble opinion. Like you said.......need good ML books and also good teaser odds books and also an inflated dog book to maximize profits.
This practice takes patience and strng math skills...but when done right, you can "grind" out a profit each week.

 

[Stag]

here's another thing I like to do.......and the online books have yet to adjust for it. I am wondering if anybody else does the same:

Let's see I wanna play a 2-team teaser for 6 points at even money.....well, I see which two vigs are "shaded" the most, and play those 2 teams. The books don't take into account "laying the juice" when it comes to teaser bets. It is just wager 1 unit to win 1 unit (unlike parlays).
Example: Let's say the Bills are +8.5, but you have to lay -125 at that number. Then, the 49ers are -7 (but the juice on them is -127). I will tease the Bills and 49ers for say $1,000 to win $1,000.
Even the best books don't take the vig into account on teaser plays, which can be a BIG advantage for the player, as I am always playing the "shaded" side.
I don't do this blindly, of course....as I have got to "like" the game and team I am putting money on, as well as look for teasers that cross key numbers such as 3 and 7.
However, and edge is an edge....and I have found this to be profitable by playing the "stronger" side of the number.

 

[AM2kidz]

Thanks Save It and Stag for the insight... Every little bit of extra insight helps put into your handicapping can make a big difference.. Thanks again and GL today everyone... am2kidz

 

[Englishman]

Save It/Stag - great post and interesting thoughts on hedging. I've done this a couple of times myself....it reduces your overall win amount, but there really is nothing like booking a cetain winner for the second game.

fman - thanks for your usual insightful contribution...you pathetic cunt.

 

[ScreaminPain]

fman - thanks for your usual insightful contribution...you pathetic cunt.

:scared :scared

 

[Save It]

Adding this 1st half play today:

Bengals -1 1st half
Risking $550 to win $500

Like the Bengals to take care of the Titans today, and think they build a lead going into the half...taking the stronger team who will rebound after the loss to Jacksonville - take the Bengals 1st half today...good luck!

 

[Save It]

Slow start for Bengals - looks like they are getting it going - I took them in the 2nd half -3 - they win the ball game...good luck...

Bengals 2nd half -3
Risk $1,100 to win $1,000

 

[Save It]

Another great day today - hope some of you followed the Atlanta/Seattle parlay, and Cincy bets - so far 1-1 +$450 and have the Atl/Sea parlay alive for $2,000 to win $1,540 - i went ahead and made a Houston +350 monyline play for $600 to win $2,100 - so guaranteeing at least a $100 or $940 profit on the parlay, and another winning day...good luck...

 

[Padre]

Save it - Well done on ur writeup.explained everything well.

But here is the problem my friend- i used to do this very thing many years ago and tracked my outcome-and at the end i realized many things.

here it is, when u first make the initial bet, u need to evaluate all outcomes first and what u WILL DO not what u think u will do later.

that is if u know that u are going to hedge then hedge with the possibilty of getting a middle NOT LOCKING UP A PROFIT.

Right now the way that u did it u would have been better off not making the parlay and simply a str wager on ATL $2000 to win $769. i know that if SEA wins u will make 200 more but if not u stand to lose 660. if this makes sense. u see if u only track all the first part of these parlays in the long run u will do better without the hedge.

But i do like the idea of hedging to get a middle , i think that u would have done better by either teasing it or str wager , not moneyline. if u knew that u would lean towards hedging tonight with ML then i would have recommended that u just have str bet ATL earlier.

Just my $.02 , use it in ur next parlay :mj07:

 

[MrChristo]

That's right, Padre.

There is absolutely no reason to link (parlay) two games unless they are played at the same time.

Everything Padre says is correct...If you like Atlanta to win, back them on the ML....then if you like Seattle, back them on the ML.

What you're doing now is effectively betting on the Atl ML, then putting ALL of the winnings on Seattle...you can still do that by playing them seperately.

And, yeah, if you are doing it with the intent to hedge, then you are just wasting cash that you could already have in your pocket from the Atl win.
(ie. It's just like winning the Atl ML, then backing Seattle and Houston seperately, which will end in a small loss.)

Anyway....good luck with it, for sure.

 

[Save It]

Hey Padre - these are the 2 outstanding plays i have:

$2,000 to win $1,540 on the atl/sea parlay
$600 to win $2,100 on the houston ML play

The scenario is if Seattle wins, i win $1,540 parlay, lose $600 ML houston play - net $940...

If Houston wins, i win $2,100 ML play, lose $2,000 parlay - so net $100..

I think your math was wrong...so i don't stand to lose $660 - just a follow up to your last post - hope this straightens it out for you...

good luck!

 

[BuffaloBill]

Save It,

These guys are right, you are not doing this the right way.

You are actually costing yourself money.

 

[Padre]

I understand , when i said that u stand to lose 660 i meant this

If u str bet(instead of ur parlay) on ATL 2000 to win 769.

Now with what u have going right now -

Sea wins (the best option) u win 900 and change.

If Hou wins - u win 100

when i said u lose 660 i meant it as if u could have just str bet ATL earnings 769, with a Hou win earnings of 100 hence the differnce of 660 had u just str bet ATL WITH NO parlay.

i hope this helps, sometimes i do not wxplain myself well - my bad.

but my point is that if u knew that u would have hedged the way u did , u may have been better off with a straight bet only on ATL. thats all bro.

 

[Save It]

OK thanks for explaining - got your point now - thanks for the input - much appreciated - i see what you are saying...good luck to you!

 

[Padre]

Good luck to u as well, but i always like the angles that people present, hopefully 1 day someone will get us a sure fire way off getting at these books, but from a numerical standpoint i doubt there will ever be an avantage of sticking it to the man.

heres a cold 1 for ya. :drinky: