ncaa football: saturday october 29th .....

gman2

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mac notes:

why not start right at the top with the quarterbacks.

bowling green's omar jacobs separated his left (non-throwing) shoulder in the first quarter against western michigan last saturday. bg was up 6-0 and driving the ball in wmich territory. on a 1st/10 from the western michigan 30, jacobs was sacked and fumbled the ball. the broncos recovered the fumble and returned it for a touchdown. what was looking like a 13-0 bowling green lead was quickly a 7-6 western michigan lead. jacobs was hurt on the play and did not return.

officially, he's questionable for the akron game this week. but it would be a huge surprise if he played. some bg people have said he will be out at least one week and possibly more. brandon says the decision is up to jacobs as far as being able to handle the pain, but really don't see the coaches letting him out there. redshirt freshman anthony turner replaced jacobs last week, and the coaches are preparing him for what will likely be his first start against akron this weekend. he's a pretty good athlete and the coaches feel he's in the josh harris mold, who was a run-pass quarterback in his years at bowling green. but turner obviously is nowhere near jacobs level as a passer.

for ohio university, frank solich wanted to get freshman quarterback brandon jones some reps against ball state, but circumstances kept him on the sideline for all but a few plays. the bobcats scored 38 points and had a monster day rushing the football (414 yards as a team), but those numbers cant cover up the fact that incumbent quarterback austen everson was just 5/18 for 40 yards. obviously when you rushed for 400+ yards as a team (and get 268 yards from running back kalvin mcrae) you really dont have to worry about passing the ball, but the reality is that ohio needs to improve their passing game if theyre going to finish the season strong. after this buffalo game, the bobcats play three straight on national television (toledo, akron, miami). they have a knack for playing the big boys well, but they have to get the passing game fixed in a hurry. even jones, in his limited action, was just 1/5 throwing the ball.

for akron, the zips are desperately trying to get their passing game fixed and quarterback luke getsy has been miserable the last 4 games. theres really no way to misinterpret his season. in the first three games of the season, he threw for 1008 yard and 9 touchdowns with just 3 interceptions. in the four games since then, hes thrown for just 772 yards and only 3 touchdowns with 6 interceptions. his completion percentage has been sub-47% in 2 of the last three weeks. whats alarming is that those two sub-47% games were against buffalo and army.

akron head coach jd brookhart has said that he has no plans of making a quarterback switch though but did say that backup john ferguson will get more reps in practice. ferguson has good size (6'5 / 226) if he ever sees the field, but the zips might have had a better alternative had they not moved jabari arthur from quarterback to wide receiver in the offseason. arthur was the backup to charlie frye last year and had some game experience coming into this season. arthur has 15 catches on the season and is playing pretty well at his new position, but if getsy continues to struggle, you gotta wonder if the zips might have been too quick to move arthur to wide receiver.
 
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gman2

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eastern michigan freshman quarterback tyler jones provided just the spark the eagles were desperately in need of last week against miami in his first career start. he was 19/26 passing for 135 yards and 2 touchdowns to go along with 107 rushing yards and another score on 19 carries. the eagles have a bye this week before playing rival western michigan at ford field next saturday. while its never easy for a coach to go with a true freshman quarterback (jones) over a senior (bohnet), its awfully tough to send jones back to the bench for that game even if bohnet is healthy. the eagles were running in quicksand for most of the year under bohnet, but jones gives them the run-pass threat that they lacked and the emu offense, at least for one week, showed signs of why it was #5 in the country last year in total offense.

kent state was at a decided disadvantage against northern illinois last week with the inclement weather. the flashes are a team that likes to spread it out and pass 40-45 times a game and take shots down the field, especially to a speed guy like najeh pruden, but the consistent rain and heavy winds really grounded the kent air attack. quarterback michael machen, a week after playing arguably his best game of the season against navy, was miserable and only completed 10/21 passes.

northern illinois totally dominated kent's defensive line, even with 3rd string tailback adrian davis in the backfield because of injuries to wolfe and harris. the huskies rushed for 408 yards on the afternoon, which is more of a testament to the niu offensive line than anything else. davis is a decent but hardly great back, and he had a huge day agains the kent defense. the huskies would have gotten their yards and points regardless (kent was not stopping anybody -- northern, western, or southern illinois on saturday), but the paltry 3 points kent scored was due in large part to the weather as opposed to any great play from the northern defense.

incidentally, garrett wolfe will miss another week of action because of a sprained knee, and aj harris is questionable with his shoulder injury. as of now, joe novak has said that adrain davis will get another start in the backfield against ball state on saturday.
 

LonghornMM

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gman, I respect your insight and information on the MAC. I am looking at W. Mich as a HUGE play against Kent St. this weekend. I'm interested to hear what your your thoughts are on this matchup -7 or -7 1/2?

Thanks!
 

Woodson

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Hey G-Man!
Great write-up as always and thanks for the new and improved formatting!

Question:

I see three great plays this week in Ohio, C Michigan, and W Michiigan. Thoughts?

Thanks in advance, and I probably spoke to soon, as your plays usually start coming in on Thursdays...
 

gman2

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akron at bowling green

probably the toughest mac game of the weekend. line started high, now had crossed under a key number and has settled at a little under two scores. bowling green should have no problems moving the ball but passing game probably not going to be as vertical with turner at quarterback. should see a lot more shotgun draws and options than usual from bgsu. falcons will score, they just wont be as quick-strike under turner. akron back in their comfortable role of underdog, and thats where theyre most dangerous. its uncanny how shitty a chalk and solid an underdog this program is. but getsy has to play better, plain and simple.

ohio at buffalo

bobcats are 3-0 at home, 0-4 on the road. worth noting, though, that the 4 road games have been against virginia tech, northwestern, bowling green, and surging central michigan. bobcats coming off a 400+ yard team rushing performance against ball state. buffalo's strentgh is in the secondary, but theyve been giving up a lot of yards on the ground (108/117 in rushing defense). have mentioned it before but buffalo is a completely different team at home. maybe its the 1.400 people in attendance that bring out the best in the bulls, but seriously -- even the best teams in the mac struggle in new york. bulls have been tough in the 1h of recent games. would be a huge surprise if ohio came in and just dominated. rutgers wasnt able to do it. akron wasnt able to do it. bowling green wasnt able to do it. those teams all had more firepower than ohio. but what works in ohio's favor is that they are the first team to come to buffalo this year with a legit running game, and again, thats where buffalo struggles. still get the feeling though that if buffalo plays a clean game (and for the most part, they have done that in recent weeks) that they should be within one score when they head to the final 15:00.

kent at western michigan

seeing a lot of posts with guys going heavy on western michigan both here and elsewhere. the question would be....why? by no means is kent the play, but puzzling that so many people are sprinting to get their money down on wmu team laying 7 points that:

* is one year removed from not having a win over a division 1-A team
* has 4 wins on the season, coming against temple, buffalo, 1-AA southern illinois, and bowling green. and they weren't beating bowling green if jacobs doesnt leave the game in the first quarter when bg was up 6-0 and driving near the wmu redzone. the dynamic of that game changed on one play.
* has lost outright at home to ball state
* has a true freshman quarterback (hiller) that is making his 2nd career start

cubit is going to have this program back on its feet pretty soon. and the broncos have certainly improved from last year. but they are very, very young. a dozen freshmen in their two-deep rotations.

kent was godawful last week, but they certainly werent helped by the weather. rain and wind ended up being a lot heavier than anticipated and that completely grounded their passing game. kent is a team that wants to throw 40 or 45 times a game. but the rain forced them into a grind-it-out mode, and youre not going to win a grind-it-out game with northern illinois. huskies were going to get their points regardless last week, because kent's defense was pathetic. but kent managing only 3 points is really misleading. the rain and wind just totally negated their passing game.

also worth noting that teams who are in off of outright wins as 20+ underdogs are normally dog shit the next week, for obvious reasons.

could western win this game 35-21? absolutely. but the name of the game is putting your money down in spots where a lot of variables are on your side. and its hard to find a lot of pro-wmu angles in this game. again, that doesnt mean kent is the play, because the flashes have underachieved immensely this season. but wmu laying a touchdown has no value when theyve barely shown the ability to win outright against temple, southern illinois, and buffalo, while also losing outright to ball state.
 
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Smitty

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thank you, gman. i can't believe i'm saying this, but i really like buffalo this weekend. they are 3-0 ATS at home, while ohio is 0-4 ATS on the road. including last year, buffalo is 6-2 ATS at home, ohio is 1-9 ATS on the road. 1-9? laying points? i'll take 'em, thank you very much. now if only the bulls didn't suck so much...
 

gman2

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smitty:

while im not in a hurry to play the bulls, it wouldnt exactly be the worst play out there. theres a lot that supports a buffalo play. ohio, however, did look very good last week, albeit against ball state. if nothing else, you should get your money's worth with this bet. it would be a huge surprise if ohio just went in there and rolled to an easy win. i tend to think that it could be a very close game the entire way with ohio doing enough to win in the end, but a buffalo outright win wouldnt be a huge surprise. all this said, its still the ugliest game on the mac card this week. but theres money to be made in ugly lookin games sometimes.

on a side note -- crazy to think that this is the ugliest game on the mac football card this saturday

....but a few months from now, might be one of the best mac matchups, as these two were playing for the mac championship in basketball. and ohio is gonna be friggin good in hoops. but i digress, lol.

have a good weekend smitty. good luck.
 

gman2

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spang said:
"ohio is gonna be friggin good in hoops"

Yep, good enough for 2nd place in the east ;)

a year ago, i never thought my lone request for tix to an akron game would be for the OU matchup on february 25th. but im putting my request in now! :)

its an espn2 game to boot. dont make me watch in on TV! :mj14:

btw- not sure if i sent you this through email but did you see that sammy villegas is first team all-mac in the preseason? i couldnt stop laughing when i saw that. gimmie a friggin break. theres ten guys in the conference better than him, and probably 3 on his own team.
 

Smitty

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gman, thank you for your input. i don't need to tell you how bad ohio has been on the road, or as a favorite (not a large sample size for that stat) the last couple years. i feel the points are a bonus in this one.

another stat i just saw... the bulls have covered 4 of 5 against ohio. of course, it was 4 straight before last year.

and... ohio has toledo next friday night. it might be a little more difficult to get that running game in full gear when you're looking past your opponent.

over the last several years, some of my biggest wins have been on the arizona cardinals, so i am very familiar with placing large wagers on BAD teams. it can be very good for the wallet, but it is ALWAYS bad for the blood pressure.
 

hm23

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Do you give Kent State a shot here SU. I agree w/ your analysis of this game. I can't say that the Cold Flashes are an attractive selection but I don't trust WMU as a TD fave.

What is your assessment of WMU's Hiller?
 

gman2

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hm23 said:
Do you give Kent State a shot here SU. I agree w/ your analysis of this game. I can't say that the Cold Flashes are an attractive selection but I don't trust WMU as a TD fave.

What is your assessment of WMU's Hiller?

having handicapped this conference inside and out and having been around it for a long time, i feel im qualified to step out and say this even though its not majority opinion:

kent state is the better team here.

but the better team doesnt always win, nor do they cover. and frankly, western michigan is surging and kent is one bad loss away from mailing in the season.

so at very worst hm23, youre going into battle with the better overall team on paper.

but kent hasnt played anywhere near expectations and wmich has definitely exceeded expectations. and if the broncos jump out early, then kent could implode.

but do i give kent a shot to win straight up?
absolutely.
and it wouldnt even be an upset.

but will they give themselves a shot to win straight up? thats debatable. right now, wmu thinks they can win every game. and kent is finding ways to hurt themselves.

as for hiller, hes shown some poise for a true freshman. gotta give him credit where its due. broncos are high on him and he could turn out to be the quarterback of the future without question.

still think this game stays within 10 and if kent plays well, game could go to the final possession. wmu may cover, but i cant see them totally blowing kent out by any stretch.
 

hm23

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I guess I should've phrased my ? differently. I do think Kent State has a good shot to pull the upset and am glad to receive your confirmation.

The Broncos off. balance is what concerns me and is preventing me from pulling the trigger - that and the likelihood that the number will cont. to climb.

Neither D can stop much of anyone. The Kent/Navy game showed me how weak the KSU D is v. the run.

Thanks, gman...can't wait for your thoughts on MAC hoops.
 

gman2

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ohio university / buffalo under 38.5

first one to 17 could win this game -- no joke. ohio hasn't been able to do much of anything on the road this year they're 0-4 straight up -- but it goes much deeper than that. they've yet to crack 300 yards of total offense in any of their road games this season. in three of the four, they've gained 239 or less. buffalo had been a dead under team at home this year -- games of 17-3, 13-7, and 27-7. while it doesnt look like weather/wind will play a role here as it usually does in western new york, it still won't matter. can't see more than 35 points if they were playing on an arena football field. both teams lack offensive playmakers and quick-strike ability and that's an over-killer. bobcats aren't a terrible team, but they're not built to score quickly, primarily because everson cant throw. they're built to grind it out and play good defense. wouldnt be a huge shock to see OU pull a home upset of toledo or miami in the coming weeks, yet they should struggle here. theyve simply been night and day in and away from athens. bulls have been inching closer to their first win. they should at least get to the mid 2nd half within striking distance. call it 20-13 ohio.
 

Dice34

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I sorta like Buffalo to get their first win here, if not cover. Line is up to 5.5 at some places, would love to see it at 6.5 but don't think it'll make it there.

21-17, 17-13, 18-15 either way....
 

BGFalcon

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This will be one of my posted plays tomorrow. I was sitting on it hoping for a little help but it is staying right at 38.5. I agree with you, gman, these teams could play 5 quarters and have trouble going over 38.5.
 

Dice34

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gman,

It seems like alot of people are hammering Central Michigan against Toledo which has brought the line down 3 pts. I'm leaning towards the side of Toledo, they may be 2-4 ats this year but they've had big lines to cover. Toledo is 10-0 SU the last 10 against CMU and have dominated them the last 5 times they traveled to CMU. Wins by 18(03), 24(01), 19(99), 31(97) and 12(95).....

Common opp this year, there is only one:
Both played Eastern Mich at home
Toledo - 30-3W
CMU-20-23L
I don't go off that, but that is a huge difference, I also don't know the specs (key injuries, etc) that were involved during those games.

CMU comes in L3 3-0SU and ATS
TOL- 1-4 L5 ats

Am I way off saying Toledo has a real good chance of winning by double digits?
 
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