plays for 12/1-12/3.....

[AR182]

170-105-4 +69.20*


6*u55(120) lou/conn.....

got this when lines first came out & heard that the starting qbs for both teams were out for the game....

i like the under for a few reasons....

louisville will be starting a feshman qb who has thrown a total of 11 passes...the 2 back-ups for conn. run better than they throw....

this game will be played saturday night in conn. where the temps are usually in the low to mid 30's (with always a possibility of snow).....which will cause the ball to be heavy & slick.....

lou. doesn't score as many points on the road as they do at home....& conn. has a good defense that usually plays very well at home....on average they allow 8.6 points per game & about 270 total yards at home...

lou. has already accepted a bowl invite...so they're not out to impress any bowl committee's....

unless there are many turnovers that are run back for tds......i don't see this game going over 45 total points.........


good luck.

 

[lowell]

it's moved to 52.5 . thanks and good luck

 

[AR182]

thanks lowell......btw, olympic just moved to 51...

adding....

2*col.+28....

i think col's loss last week to nebraska has influenced this line....which imo is too much for a pretty good col. team.....when they played 7 weeks ago, texas was favored by 17 points at home & they won by 25 points...& that was with vince young having a career day by throwing for 375 yards....let's see him do it again....on a neutral field i think col.can stay within 4 tds.....

2*fresno st.-21(130).....

i think fsu will come out with guns blazing on friday....to rid the bad taste of last week's loss to nevada....lou.tech.has the #90th rated pas defense in the nation & is a terrible road team..they are 7-21 ats in their last 28 road games....fsu is averaging 43 ppg in their last 16 games.....this should be a blow-out....

2*usc-21.....

sure ucla will move the ball but i can't back a team that has allowied 37 ppg in their last 6 games...& is allowing 219 ypg on the ground....usc is averaging 53.6 ppg at home.....ucla came close last year...not this year...

2*tulsa+1.....

tulsa has very balanced attack & c.fla. lost their top receiver,walker (64 receptions)as well as a defensive lineman last week & that will definitely hurt c.fla's chances against tulsa....who has given up 264 yds. per game on the road...

good luck..

 

[Sun Tzu]

ARi I dont blame you for playing Colorado but that score was deceptive as were the stats. It was 35-10 at the half and Texas could have named the score. They essentially spent the whole second half trying to run out the clock.

And Houston is not a neutral field. Colorado got 8,000 tickets and returned 6,000. It will be a Texas home game.

 

[Sun Tzu]

As a side note the rumor in Big 12 circles is that if Colorado loses, particularly if it is big, they will go ahead and buy-out Barnett.

 

[Irish]

Good luck AR
With you on fresno but leaning the other way on UCLA/USC and TEX/COL...still as alway best to you on your plays!

Cheers
Irish

 

[gman2]

good stuff as always AR. tend to agree on southern cal

 

[genosays]

6* is pretty good sized play for you isn't it on the Louisville/UConn total?? Don't remember exactly how you rate your plays, but was just curious.

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....i really appreciate it...

geno....

my usual size play is a 2*......i have played a few 6* this year (don't know what the record is) & occasionally i have played 10*(2-1)......

i really like the under in the conn.game.....feel that with the cold weather(high 20's to low 30's), new qbs,& that the only way conn. can stay in this game is to slow it down.....also feel with the lou. runner bush coming back for this game, petrino will want to give him work to get ready for the bowl game(he will be needed more now with the qb out)......i would have made it a 10* if it was a side that i favored.....but because of ot & possible turnovers from inexperienced qbs....i went 60% of the 10*.....

hope that makes sense (lol)....

good luck.

 

[Master Capper]

good luck AR, thanks for sharing all the information as you did this year.

 

[trolln4walii]

GL on your plays this week AR. Think I already congratulated you over in the NFL forum on your third place finish in the Infinity College Football Contest :clap: If not, kudos to you, and if I did it certainly doesn't hurt to mention it again. Congrats for that and for the great season you're having!! :clap:

 

[AR182]

thanks guys...appreciate it...

very disappointed in fresno state's no show for tonight's game....

adding.....

2*u45 fsu/v.t......

think that fla.st.'s defense can hold v.t. down & don't see fla st. doing much damage vs. the v.t. defense....

2*so. fla.+10(120).....

was waiting for the line to keep going up...but pinnacle went down to 8.5....so i jumped on 9.5...

w.vir. accomplished both of it's goals last week....they got revenge against backyard rival, pitts.& won the big east regular season championship along with a bcs bid....so. fla. is a very strong home team....going 29-6 su in it's last 35 home games & 4-0 su this year.....so. fla. was clearly looking ahead last week to this game & i think they will be up for this game.....

good luck....

 

[Ratslla]

Good Day & Good Luck Sir!

 

[Axle]

I think Fresno disappointed quite a few people...including me. :cursin:

 

[loophole]

you don't think bobby b might have a few offensive surprises today to show up his son's critics?

 

[BadAngel]

Good luck AR. Your right, Fresno didn't show up. You know I had them too. We will get them today buddy.

 

[lowell]

you don't think bobby b might have a few offensive surprises today to show up his son's critics?

va tech has never beaten him. they may today but i will take some more fsu now that line is at 14.5

 

[AR182]

for those who like angles...here is something that i forgot to post with my so. fla. play......


play on - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - off an upset loss to a conference rival as a favorite against an opponent off 2 straight wins against conference rivals.

32-6 ats over the last 5 seasons =84.2%

play On - underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points - after 1 or more consecutive straight up losses against opponent after 4 or more consecutive straight up wins.

48-10 ats over the last 5 seasons =82.8%

good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

i`m befuddled by all the west va sentiment..i know there`s some homerism......and they`re good...but,so fla has some solid athletes...and are lights out at home....

so fla is a team that is trying to establish itself...and the coach is a motivator...

no tangible motivation for west va...i think 10 pts to a team at night...that hasn`t been behind at home all year is well worth a shot....


also went with tulsa...looking good there...and reversed fields and went with a hot army team at home +7 vs well coached navy....

best of luck,bro...

 

[AR182]

gw...

it's good seeing you....

i waited too long on a hot army team....so no play for me on that game...but what i did,for the hell of it, is play some middles.....

louisville-13(140)
conn.+17(140)

navy-3(140)
army+7(140)

mid.tenn.st.-3(140)
fla.int'l.+7(140)

you can't get rich playing middles like these...but i thought it would be fun....

good luck..