NCAABB Picks (12/5-12/11), YTD: 11-8, +2.2 units

[BGFalcon]

Monday:

Illinois/Arkansas LR over 130.5: UALR showed against Michigan St. that they are no pushover but going to Assembly Hall is no picnic. After two tough games against UNC and XU, Illinoins should be ready to get out and run. UALR may try to slow it down for awhile but once they get behind, they will be forced to play up-tempo. My main concern is free throw shooting. Neither team is doing a great job at the line but this shouldn't come into play tonight. I have Illinois scoring around 75 which means we need to get mid-50's out UALR.

 

[BGFalcon]

Arizona St. -5 over Minnesota: Gophers too banged up to cover this number on the road. ASU hasn't played anyone yet but they are shooting the ball very well right now. Devils don't defende real well but neither does Minny. Devils by 9 in a high-scoring game.

 

[Ronnie]

I didn't play it for much, starting to wonder why I played it at all. Mich St is a better team than Illinois this year and Illi laying the same number to the same team that just covered against Mich St. Starting to smell a little fishy. :scared

 

[BGFalcon]

Nice. Illinois and UALR combine to miss 19 free throws :cursin: and the game lands on 124. How can these teams expect to win if they shoot less than 60% from the line.

Let's go Sun Devils!

 

[BGFalcon]

Monday results: 0-2, -2.2 units

 

[BGFalcon]

Tuesday pick

Tuesday pick

Iowa +1 over Iowa St.: Hawkeyes starting to snap out of their offensive funk and defensively should be able to control the game. Tough week for Iowa as they have to go to Iowa State on Friday.

I also like Indiana against Indiana St. but not a the current -6.5. I got an early line of -5 and played that but I think the line will continue to go up.

 

[BGFalcon]

URI -2.5 over Manhattan: Manhattan has shot the ball poorly on the road and URI has been solid defensively. URI should be able to score low 60's and I don't see Manhattan getting into the high 50's.

 

[BGFalcon]

One Early Wednesday Play:

One Early Wednesday Play:

Detroit +1.5 over Wright St.: Titans have been horrendous ATS but have managed to scratch out a couple of victories lately. They still don't shoot free throws very well and they don't seem to have the defensive edge that they have displayed in the past. But, Wright State has been worse. Granted, they have been on the road alot playing Miami, Toledo and Ball St. but their offense has been awful and they are allowing opponents to shoot 47% from the field. They will get two players back from suspension (Eldridge and Scott) and that may help down the road but I like the Titans to cover this number on the road, most likely by missing crucial free throws down the stretch allowing WSU to whittle an eight point lead down to three points and then surviving a desparation three pointer at the buzzer.

 

[BGFalcon]

Tuesday results: 1-1, -0.1 units

 

[BGFalcon]

Central Michigan/Dayton over 128: While CMU is not good, they have managed to score at least 60 points in every game except Cleveland St. Dayton is good defensively but, in what should be a blowout, I don't think we will see 40 minutes of intensity. I hate being on the other side of Spang but I'm pulling the trigger on over 128.

 

[BGFalcon]

Wednesday results: 0-2, 2.2 units

Thursday: No picks

 

[BGFalcon]

Saturday Picks

Saturday Picks

Michigan -6.5 over South Florida: Wolverines need to keep winning their non-conference games so they can get to the tournament after Amaker screws things up in the Big 10. Actually, they are playing with much better discipline and patience this year. The win at Notre Dame showed me something.

Wichita St. +10 over Michigan St.: Sparty still lacking the toughness that Izzo always talks about to cover double-digits against a solid team.

Youngstown St. +5 (1st half) over St. Bonaventure: Penguins have covered (and led) in the first half in every game this year. They seem to fade in the second half. I'm not smart enough to figure out why, I just keep taking the 1st half points.

Missouri St. -13.5 over Detroit: I watched Detroit against Wichita St. and was shocked at how poorly they played. They had no emotion, Brandon Cotton didn't make an effort to take control, they didn't rebound, no defensive intensity, etc. I don't see them suddenly snapping out of this at the University formerly know as SW Missouri St. They took the direction out of their name and have become a strong team.

 

[Ratslla]

Good Day & Good Luck!

Ratslla

 

[BGFalcon]

Saturday Results: 2-2, -0.2 units (hope you got the push on YSU)

One Sunday pick: XU -3 over Miami(OH): When you play games in the 50's and low 60's you can't afford to lose a double-digit scorer and that is what has happened to the Redhawks. Tim Pollitz will be out for a couple of weeks and Miami has been relying on him for a lot of minutes. XU is really developing into a nice team. They have good balance and play solid defense. Muskies by 6 on the road.

 

[BGFalcon]

Sunday results: 1-0, +1.0 unit

Week (weak?) results: 4-7, -3.7 units

YTD: 15-15, -1.5 units

 

[gman2]

good job falcon. had X as well. knew at some point miami would come back down to earth and cool down after some en fuego shooting early on. i really like this xavier team- they could be very solid this season. they could easily be undefeated right now.

 

[BGFalcon]

Thanks, gman. I agree with you that XU has a chance to be very good. I like they way they play--solid defense, work the ball inside/out. Hopefully the books won't find out about them until we milk a little more cash out of them.

 

[BGFalcon]

Three more for Sunday:

Siena -2 (2nd half) over Canisius: I think Siena comes back and wins this game after a horrendous start.

Purdue/Loyola-Chicago under 144.5: Purdue struggling to find scorers. This game should stay in the mid to high 130's.

Tulane/S.Hall under 135.5: I waited too long to get this but I still like it at 135.5. Neither team shooting particularly well and Seton Hall's defense has been very good so far.