A couple of picks so far for Sunday the 11th...

[Glenn Quagmire]

NFL YTD (10-3)

Chicago (+6) I made the mistake of betting on the Steelers last week and paid dearly for it. They were favored by THREE against the Bengals and lost, now they are favored by SIX against the Bears??? Not only are the Bears a better team than the Steelers, but they have the best defense in the NFL. The fact that they are getting 6 is a bit surprising to me. I know it's a road game, but I love the fact that Chicago is still playing for homefield throughout the playoffs. On the flip side, Big Ben is obviously hurting. If the Bengals, who have a poor defense, can pick him off three times, what will the Bears do to him? Factor in that Pittsburgh's D is pretty mediocre this year, and I don't see them covering the 6. Actually, I think Chicago has a better chance of winning this game than Pitt does. I know it's a must-win for Pitt and they're at home, not a situation I like betting against, but I can't see them covering 6 against that defense.

Washington (-3.5) I'm going back to the well again with the 'Skins. They were favored by three last week and covered easily as they beat the Rams by 15. Well, the Cardinals aren't any better than the Rams. They have the league's best pass offense, but they also have the worst run offense. You think the 'Skins might focus on the passing game? This is yet another must-win game for the 'Skins as they are 6-6 now. They are playing for something while the Cardinals are probably thinking about their next tee-time. I think Washington will put up another 24-27 points and hold Arizona to to 17 or less...

Good luck everyone...

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I should add that I have a couple of leans as well... I'm looking at the Raiders -3 at the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets. I know the Raiders are awful, but the Jets are even worse. And something about the Raiders... every once in a while they have the tendency to come out and play well, kind of like their game at Washington. I have a feeling they will play well and beat the Jets and cover the 3. Just a lean right now though...

I also like Jax and Indy under 42.5. If I remember correctly these two teams combined for a whopping 13 points in Indy on the carpet. And Leftwich actually played in that game. Jax has a very good D and I don't see them allowing Indy to roll up a ton of points on them. And with Garrard at the helm for Jax, I really don't see them scoring too many points on that much improved Indy D.

As I said these are just leans right now. Any comments and/or thoughts would be much appreciated...

 

[BuffaloBill]

I kind of think that the Steelers will cover the number this week. It is a must win for the Steelers.

I also don't think that the Bears are that good. Just look at who they have played thus far.

You are right about the Bears D, but I don't see them scoring against the Steelers.

I can see the Steelers winning this one 20-10 or 17-6.

I am not in love with the play, I am just saying that I would not take the Bears this week.

It seems like the 6 is a lot considering all of the circumstances leading up to this game, but just remember......the odds makers are very good at what they do.

If I had to, I would lay the points.

Good Luck.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

BB,

You make good points. And to be honest, I actually had a pretty big bet on the Steelers last week against Cincy. I thought they were a great situational play. But after what I saw last week, I have to go against them this week. Last week was a must-win game for them as well, at home, against a division opponent, and they still came out and laid an egg. They had a chance to tie the Bengals for the division lead and, somehow, it looked like they weren't even ready to play.

I have to think the Bears D is licking their chops knowing that Big Ben is injured. I would be really surprised if he is able to play the whole game. I don't think the Bears will score a bunch of points, they never do, but the Steelers D is pretty mediocre this year. If the Bears can limit their mistakes on offense I think they will be fine.

As for who the Bears have played? You're right, they have had a fairly easy schedule. However, they dominated the Panthers at home, holding them to a field goal. They also went into Tampa and beat the Bucs. I think those two wins were pretty impressive.

But having said all this what do I know, I actually had the Eagles last night. :mj07: Good luck with whatever games you play BB.

 

[ScreaminPain]

NFL YTD (10-3)

If the Bengals, who have a poor defense, can pick him off three times, what will the Bears do to him? Factor in that Pittsburgh's D is pretty mediocre this year, and I don't see them covering the 6.

The bears D will play Pitt tough...no doubt, but Cincy picked Big Ben because he was forced to play from behind.....something I'm not sure Chicago can do. If Pitt can keep from falling behind it will force Chicago to play it's game....run then run again, then play action.

I think Turnovers and field postition will be key in this game. In a game decided in the trenches I would side with the points......3 is nice, 6 is a bargain.

I havn't pulled the trigger on this game yet, but I'm leaning with you....Chicago plus a generous 6.....good luck

 

[thom24ad]

I love that Wash game too. I also have leans on Houston and Indy.

 

[Killrus]

Washington looks good.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Great points Screaming. They got behind against the Bengals and kind of gave up on the running game. Two things that I thought were weird about that are 1) Why would you have a QB with an injured thumb throwing the ball that much? and 2) Why would you throw that much when you are in the game the whole time? They were only down by one score up until the last few minutes of the game, when Cincy took a 2 TD lead. I'm REALLY beginning to question the play-calling of the Steelers and/or Cowher. The onside kick and the QB draw on fourth and 4 in the Indy game come to mind...

I completely agree with your analysis too. I think it will be a low-scoring, defensive struggle. People keep talking about Chicago's lack of offense. Well, I don't think it matters that they lack O when they keep dominating opponents with their defense. And their defense and special teams usually generate some points anyway.

Before the lines came out I had planned on taking the under in this game. Then they came out and I saw Chicago +6 and I quickly changed my mind. I still like the under, but I hate betting on both a side and a total in the same game. I think you have it pegged perfectly though. Turnovers and field position will decide who wins this game. Good luck if you play it.

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

I've added a couple more...

Indy/Jax (Under 42) - With Garrard at the helm I have to think Jax will play it pretty conservative on O. They don't want to commit a lot of turnovers with an unproven QB so I don't think they will go too deep into the playbook. On the flip side, I don't think Indy will be able to put too many points on the board against Jax. They were held to 10 points in their first meeting, which was at home and on the carpet. Jax has a VERY good defense. Unlike a lot of people, I really don't see Indy running away with this game. I think Jax's O will struggle but their D will keep them fairly close throughout.

Giants (-8.5) I just see this game as a blowout. NY has everything to play for and Philly has nothing to play for. Now they are without their starting QB AND starting RB, who in my opinion, is also their best receiver. Philly will have to make some huge plays on D or special teams to keep this one close. I don't think that will happen. Lay the points.

Good luck everyone...

 

[Glenn Quagmire]

Just a terrible, terrible day all the way around for me. I end up going 1-3, but should have went 2-2. I almost bought back my Bears bet when I saw that their two starting safeties were out. I didn't. They get rolled. I had two very big leans on Jax +9 and Pitt/Chi under 30.5. I didn't bet on either, so of course they both win. And lastly, I get absolutely bent over by the pathetic, heartless defense of the Colts. For some reason, they decided to quit on their team with about 5 minutes to go in the game, up 26-3. I can understand maybe giving up a TD with such a big lead, but they give up TWO TDs in a 3 minute stretch, then also give up a 2 point conversion?!?! Wow. I don't even know what to say. Indy's D is lucky that the O was able to bail their asses out because they are sure as hell weren't going to close out that game. Without a doubt, one of the most heartless performances I have seen by a defense. I can't deny that their D is improved this year, but they DO NOT play for 60 minutes. They take series off, they take plays off, and when their team gets a big lead they just flat-out quit. They almost handed the Bengals a win two weeks ago and now today they inexplicably turn a blowout victory into a nailbiter. What a joke.

Oh yeah... how about them Giants too? I suppose I should have never bet against Ricky "Sweetness" Moats, huh? Hope everyone else's day went better than mine...