MNF....HELP!!! Need Atlanta...Want New Orleans

[trolln4walii]

Could have titled this one a guaranteed lock.....BUT, only for me Here's my situation on tonight's game. At the beginning of yesterday there were only three survivors left in our pool. It's a modest pool with 42 entrants @25 bucks (hey, I live on a teacher's salary ) for a total purse of $1050. Pays 700/250/100. I picked Atlanta and the other two guys had SD. As luck would have it (and it hasn't showed it's face on a regular basis lately) the Chargers went down and I sit alone as the potential winner. Seven hundred bucks is much, much more than a straight wager (I should add a couple more muches :mj07: ) for me. A hedge is a certainty as a profit of $500 is still way above my largest wager ever.

Here's what I'm considering for a great payday. Any thoughts from you more seasoned veterans would be appreciated.

*Let it Ride/If Atlanta wins = +700 :nooo:
*Play 100 on Saints ML @ BetJamaica +475
(plus 350 from being split 3 ways = +825)
*Play Saints +10- (millenium) for 100
(Falcons win but no cover = +700+100=800)
(Falcons win and cover =700 -110=+590)
*Combination of the +10- and ML :thinking:

Unless I'm new at this and have it screwed up (very likely) it looks like I would be better off if New Orleans wins (with the ML and split pot). I would like to have the distinction of the "sole" survivor but I can live with being a co-champ :yup and finish off my Christmas shopping tomorrow :mj14:

Thoughts??? and thanks :thumb:

 

[Sleasy77]

Either let it ride or take the saints plus the points. I wouldnt play the saints on the ML. I think vick shows up tonight. Thats my 2 cents.


The Slease

 

[bulldog]

good situation you are as other two have lost and you will win at least 350.00 if you do nothing and Saints win game. So, you have Atl to win game for 700.00 which in my opinion is excellent value as i give the Saints about a 8% chance of winning straight up.

i would not do anything and root for atlanta.

bulldog

 

[FirstnGoal]

Either let it ride or take the saints plus the points. I wouldnt play the saints on the ML. I think vick shows up tonight. Thats my 2 cents.


The Slease

I couldn't have said it any better!

Good Luck! :mj14:

 

[greed]

Be a double winner put some cash on the Saints and the points!

 

[Jake DeNiro]

*Let it Ride/If Atlanta wins = +700 :mj03:

BUT....I believe Saints cover so...

*Play Saints +10- (millenium) for 100 :yup

GL

 

[SixFive]

tough decision, but a good one to have to make!!

Have you checked any alternate lines, like
New Orleans Saints
+3.5 +228 ?

I think that's what I would play for about 150 or 200. I really think Atlanta will roll tonight, but it's silly not to at least hedge a little. GL!

 

[Jake DeNiro]

trolln...there you go 5 for

SAINTS PLUS THE POINTS :yup

GL with whatever you decide... :mj14:

 

[chuckdman]

I for one think teachers in Ontario should be paid a higher salary! :clap: I really respect what you have to do as a teacher.

For the bet, put $100 on the ML on the Saints :mj14: .. and walk away with $600 at the end of the day!

 

[The Judge]

Nice dillemma!

Nice dillemma!

Play 100 on Saints ML @ BetJamaica +475
(plus 350 from being split 3 ways = +825)

This is your best option to guarantee a profit. If by some chance the Saints win, you will actually pocket more cash than any of the other options and if the Falcons win, as I expect they will, you have a smooth $600 for your $25 investment.

Good luck Trolln!

 

[trolln4walii]

thanks everyone for your expertise :clap:

I'm definitely not letting it ride. To think the Falcons are a sure thing is the same thoughts my two counterparts had on the Chargers yesterday :mj07: Right now I'm leaning on 150 on the Saints plus 10-. Can win 850 total on the double win or 535 on the no cover. If they do beat Atlanta at least I'll have the 150 plus the 3/way split of 350 for a nice 500. It's a wonderful no/lose situation to be in. I also still like 100 on the ML. Minimum payday of 600 :grins: :mj14:

And SixFive..I did look at some of the alternatives. Lots of nice positions to be in tonight. Still pondering

 

[FirstnGoal]

Final Verdict:

I'd let it ride!...been watching the pre-game on ESPN and I knew about the situation with Aaron Brooks but just found out that Coach Haslett blew up at Brooks at practice the other day and the team came close to releasing DE Darren Howard this week because he's been so disruptive (ala T.O.) as of late...I sence a Saints team that has had to endure a lot this season but one that could also be coming unglued!

 

[amich1]

fwiw, you also have a 10 point middle. A saints ml bet gives you value only if the saints win straight up, which is unlikely. If I were you, and feeling ballsy, I'd put 200-350 (up to half of your win)on the pool) & put it on the Saints plus 10 points (. This gives you a 10 point middle (which is a just a huge middle for the NFL) for a shot at a grand. You watch the game knowing you at least made 350 off a 25 dollar bet if saints win straight up or Atlanta blows them out, either of which could happen. However, this is a rivalry game, an often ignored rivalvry game at that. I think the saints play hard tonite,lose, & cover, even though they have nothing to play for, because they hate the falcons & brooks won't let himself get toasted by his cousin. Sounds like you're dead set on hedging the 700 as it is, may as well go for it!

 

[trolln4walii]

thanks again everyone......

It's hard for me to think clearly on my own under pressure (nice pressure,aay? ) Great suggestions. I think I'm just going with 100 on the Saints plus 10-. Don't think NO can win straight up. Whatever happens I'm assured my biggest payday on a single game :mj14:

 

[bookkilla]

Damn... That is some hardcore sheit right there!!! I think you did the right play. Let's get em!