Music City Bowl - Scout Inc's take

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Belly of the Beast
Maroney, O-line give Gophers the edgeScouts, Inc.

Keep an eye on the trenches in the Gaylord Hotels Music City Bowl. Virginia's ability to slow down Minnesota's powerful rushing attack will be the game's key factor.

Virginia Offense vs. Minnesota Defense
QB Marques Hagans will lead a balanced attack that features a solid offensive line and weapons in RB Wali Lundy and WR Deyon Williams. Lundy has been bothered by a foot injury and Hagans hampered by a hamstring, but both should play.

The efficient offensive line is led by LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson, a potential top three selection in the NFL draft. Ferguson is fun to watch. He is very long and extremely nimble. In pass protection, his gigantic stride gets him back in his set very quickly. He never looks out of balance in the run or pass game. Hagans is a playmaker that is capable of hurting the Gophers with his arm and legs. With the ball in his hands, he is very quick, elusive and does not shy away from contact. As a passer, he excels throwing on the move and Virginia will roll him out to avoid Minnesota's interior pressure. However, Hagans can be erratic. Allowing him to get into a rhythm and gain confidence will be crucial to UVA's success in this game.

Lundy is a versatile back with a lower center of gravity and strong legs. He catches the ball well and has an excellent nose for the end zone. Williams is a very tall receiver that has become Hagans' go-to guy this year because of his ability to create mismatches with his size and speed. Williams shields defensive backs well and does an excellent job of leaving his feet to go up and get the football. He could be a primary red zone weapon in this contest.

Although Minnesota is allowing 407.6 total yards per game, the Gophers have three impressive talents along their defensive line in true freshman DE Steve Davis and DTs Anthony Montgomery and Mark Losli. This group is capable is pressuring Hagans and bottling up Lundy. Montgomery and Losli are very tall interior players that disrupt throwing lanes and use their long arms to keep blockers off their bodies. Both players have a future in the NFL and can penetrate gaps quickly or read and react while tying up blockers. Minnesota's back seven is very ordinary and the collective speed and playmaking ability of their defensive backs and linebackers is less than impressive.

Minnesota Offense vs. Virginia Defense
It is no secret that the Gophers will lean on their running attack, which ranks second in the nation. The plan is to pound it out behind a tremendously efficient offensive line, which executes mostly within a zone-blocking scheme. RB Laurence Maroney will carry the load in what could be his last college game, and Gary Russell will spell him on occasion. Both players are capable of hitting the home run and wear down opposing defenses. Maroney is a great player with a bright NFL future. He is a workhorse back that is tough as nails, runs with low pads and punishes tacklers with attitude. His vision and patience is superb, he is light on his feet, extremely smooth and has big-play burst.

Minnesota has two offensive linemen that are also heading to the NFL, OG Mark Setterstrom and Outland and Rimington Award winner OC Greg Eslinger. This line is well coached and will not struggle with their assignments against Virginia's 3-4 scheme. Virginia is allowing 147 yards per game on the ground and must do better than that to compete with the Gophers.

QB Bryan Cupito does a solid job of managing games and is capable of getting the ball into the hands his huge receivers when the play-action series is properly set up by the rushing attack. Minnesota has three giant receiving options in TE Matt Spaeth and WRs Jared Ellerson and Ernie Wheelright. Of course, all three players are good run blockers for their positions, but they also create mismatches with their huge frames, especially in the red zone. When Virginia has an extra defender in the box, which will be often, Cupito throws a very good deep ball, will have favorable matchups to throw to and should exploit the Cavaliers secondary for several big plays.

Assuming ILB Ahmad Brooks is fully recovered from knee and ankle injuries that limited him during the regular season, the Cavaliers' linebackers are among the best in the nation. Although he didn't make a lot of noise this season, Brooks is a very special player capable of taking over the game. He has very few weaknesses and excels rushing the quarterback, pass coverage and against the run. Brooks has great size, explosive athleticism and elite playmaking skills. He is a very high draft pick if he checks out medically. Classmate Kai Parham led Virginia in tackles and is a fine player in his own right. Throw in freshman Clint Sintim, who started every game this year, and this group is something to see. Virginia's three-man front will struggle against Minnesota's impressive offensive line, particularly in the run game and the Cavaliers' linebackers will take on too many big blocks to withstand the Gophers' running game for four quarters.

Special Teams
Minnesota's special teams' units are well coached and solid, but not overly dynamic and lack the pure athleticism of the Cavaliers' unit. Virginia has a fine young kick returner in redshirt freshman Cedric Peerman, who finished the season second in the ACC in kickoff return average, despite missing time in the middle of the season with a knee injury. The Cavaliers also have one of the very top kickers in the nation in Connor Hughes. Hughes is an NFL prospect that can be counted on to win this game for Virginia if it comes down to a late clutch kick.

Three Key Individual Matchups
1. Minnesota RB Laurence Maroney vs. Virginia LB's Ahmad Brooks and Kai Parham
2. Minnesota OC Greg Eslinger vs. Virginia NT Kwakou Robinson
3. Virginia OT D'Brickashaw Ferguson vs. Minnesota DE Steve Davis


Scouts' Edge
Minnesota will be appearing in its third-straight bowl game and sixth in the last seven years, but the Gophers once agains failed to finish strong under coach Glen Mason, losing three of its last five regular-season games. It also has been to this game bowl game three times in the last four seasons, so it won't be easy for Mason to motivate his team.

The Cavaliers enter this game with plenty of unrest, as well. They lost their last two games of the season, including a 52-14 drubbing by rival Virginia Tech. Both of Virginia's coordinators, Ron Prince and Al Golden, accepted head coaching jobs and Al Groh has lost four total assistants off his staff since the regular-season finished.

This should be a high scoring affair, as Minnesota's defense allows too many total yards and Virginia allows too many yards on the ground. The Cavs will keep up for a while, but Maroney's explosiveness will allow the Gophers to exploit Virginia's biggest weakness. The Gophers will win the time-of-possession battle and eventually wear down the Cavaliers' front. A couple of big Maroney runs should seal the deal for Mason's squad in the second half.

Prediction: Minnesota 35, Virginia 28
 
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