Tonight I got lucky and won a total. SA over. Most of the good cappers here went on the under. Here's the question. Why? I not asking this to be smart. This is the first total I have actually capped in over two years and I could see nothing but the over. I almost didn't play the game but it fit a system that is hitting over 65% on overs for the year and since a lot of you guys that I respect so much were on the under, I decided to capp it myself. I came up with a solid over (according to GSP) and decided to play it. I have a lot of good reasons why I went over and I would appreciate why you went under. The name of the game at Jack's is that we do our damnest to post winners for everyone. Your contribution would be appreciated because I'm still trying to learn how to do this shit.
I have a question
- Thread starter gsp
- Start date
I can't answer specifically for NO/SA....
I can't answer specifically for NO/SA....
but I was on the under Sea/Den that lost by 4 points.
To me totals are becoming tougher to cap with any real confidence......you tell me......how can you legitimately cap these games when you have swings of:
-a 67 point 2nd period followed by a 48 point 3rd?
The 2H under in Den seemed to be the best play last night among the totals. Glad many jumped on it and I think discussions by IO in my thread made a lot of sense after that frantic 1H.
IMHO.....there is bigger inconsistancy in scoring this season by teams from period to period, half to half, and game to game this year.
Long gone are the days of Mavs and GS games hitting 200+ every night.
One blow out period or one team in the teens for one period are all it takes to sink hours of handicapp'n numbers, averages, injuries and game dynamics.
I am beginning to believe BDB might be right when he says this stuff is ALL scripted. I don't mind losing a total by 4 points so much as the way it was lost last night.
However, if these games are scripted, who gets the players to lay down defensively one period and play "college bb" defense the next?
One final thing......I really believe that on nights with limited numbers of games......more funky things seem to happen than on full card evenings.
This likely doesn't answer your question Joe....but it's my take on the totals so far this season.
I can't answer specifically for NO/SA....
but I was on the under Sea/Den that lost by 4 points.
To me totals are becoming tougher to cap with any real confidence......you tell me......how can you legitimately cap these games when you have swings of:
-a 67 point 2nd period followed by a 48 point 3rd?
The 2H under in Den seemed to be the best play last night among the totals. Glad many jumped on it and I think discussions by IO in my thread made a lot of sense after that frantic 1H.
IMHO.....there is bigger inconsistancy in scoring this season by teams from period to period, half to half, and game to game this year.
Long gone are the days of Mavs and GS games hitting 200+ every night.
One blow out period or one team in the teens for one period are all it takes to sink hours of handicapp'n numbers, averages, injuries and game dynamics.
I am beginning to believe BDB might be right when he says this stuff is ALL scripted. I don't mind losing a total by 4 points so much as the way it was lost last night.
However, if these games are scripted, who gets the players to lay down defensively one period and play "college bb" defense the next?
One final thing......I really believe that on nights with limited numbers of games......more funky things seem to happen than on full card evenings.
This likely doesn't answer your question Joe....but it's my take on the totals so far this season.
Ez, I wasn't talking about the Den game but since you brought it up, we'll talk about it. I posted in somebody's thread last night that I was playing Sea and under in the second half as a par. Here was my reasoning. I had a weak signal that Sea would cover last night but decided not to play it. When I saw that 127 points had been scored in the first half and Sea was only down 3 I figured I would take the points and hope. The total was a little more cut and dried. There's an old addage I go by on second half totals in the NBA. If the first half goes way over or under the first half line then go opposite. The logic here is that Vegas is not going to miss the original line by 15 or 20 points. 106 in the second last night would have put the line over by 22. Also last night you got a bonus. The game was in Den and to score 127 in the first half you have to run, run, run. There's not a better conditioned player in the NBA than Ray Allen and when his shots are falling like last night, he don't slow down. Marcus Camby was out so that was putting more minutes on the remaining Den players. Somebody has to get tired and that's all it takes. I felt that if I was right about the side or the total, I would be right about both,therefore, the par was the way to go.
Joe....I saw your parlay post.....
Joe....I saw your parlay post.....
congrats on the winna....hope ya had a boat load on it!
The lead was 119 at the half and your exactly right....somebody on Den (with Camby out) and Sea (with Fortson out) was going to get tired with more minutes in a high altitude situation.
Making the 2H under a great ticket!
Ray and Mello were on fire during 1H.....although both cooled some 2H.
Your system plays seem to be making more $ than cappers (like me) who look at stats and fundamentals.
Stay with what's working.....but in this league things do change in a heartbeat.....often before you can recognize a trends change. GL....ez
Joe....I saw your parlay post.....
congrats on the winna....hope ya had a boat load on it!
The lead was 119 at the half and your exactly right....somebody on Den (with Camby out) and Sea (with Fortson out) was going to get tired with more minutes in a high altitude situation.
Making the 2H under a great ticket!
Ray and Mello were on fire during 1H.....although both cooled some 2H.
Your system plays seem to be making more $ than cappers (like me) who look at stats and fundamentals.
Stay with what's working.....but in this league things do change in a heartbeat.....often before you can recognize a trends change. GL....ez
