bowl plays part deux.....

[AR182]

regular season....173-109-4....+70.20*

finished up the pre-new year's bowls at...

9-2...+11.25*...

i posted some plays for the later bowl games in my other thread....i will move them over to this thread......

 

[taoist]

...just one last **THANK YOU!!!** to end the year, buddy. :mj14:


Looks like you finished the year with a BANG!!! :clap: :clap:


...all the best in 2006.


:mj14:

 

[AR182]

here is an angle that i previously posted & it hit with rutgers...& is in play with louisville....


play on any college dog of 7 or more points if they were favored by 14 or more points in their final game of the season....

since 1980 the ats record is 13-4......76.4%

play on rutgers & lousiville.....

good luck.

 

[AR182]

thanks taoist....all the best to you & yours....

i have 2 plays in the penn. st/fla. st. game....

2.5*teaser...

penn.st.p & u 55...


2.5*penn.st.-7(120)....

jumped on this when the line was at 7.5 & bought down to 7....was anticipating the line would move upward, which it has & try to hit the middle.....but changed my mind after reading more info on the game....

eventhough fla. st. upset vt in the acc championship game, they only gained 272 total yards (61 rushing yards) & 15 firstdowns....penn. st.'s defense is arguably in the top 5 in the country....when fsu's qb faced 6 of the top 20 defenses in the country, he completed 48% of his passes for an average of 189 yds. per game & 6/9 td/int ratio....with the problems & injuries fsu has had on the offensive line, i don't see fsu doing much vs. probably the best defensive line in the country....i expect weatherford to throw int.(he threw 17 for the season)....expect penn. st.to work from a short field on some possessions....on the other side of the field i do expect psu to be able to move some on the fsu defense.....

 

[AR182]

2.5*w. virginia +8.....

i think this is live dog who successfully runs the ball & plays sound defense.....in their last 5 games,w. vir. has rushed for over 1500 yards & on defense they allow 2.6 ypr & rank 13th against the run.....i think that they will be able to run on georgia's defense...& may even be able to pull the upset....

good luck.

 

[AR182]

5*iowa +4 (128)...

i got this early...but think that they will win su....

i'm a big fan of the iowa's coach & i think he usually does a fine job in bowl preparation as witnessed by the 4 times that iowa's been in a bowl game under ferentz.....they have been single digit dogs in all 4 bowl games & won 3 su.....

the big improvement in iowa's offense this year has been in the running attack.....last year, they had many injuries to their backs & only rushed for 73 yards per game at about 2 ypr....this year they are averaging about 194 yds. per game at 5.5 ypr (against teams that on the average allowed 4.7 ypr)....their qb, tate (i like him alot) averaged 7.6 yd. per pass play against teams that on the avergae allowed 5.7 ypp.....fla's. defense faced 5 better than avergae qb's this season ( bama,lsu, vandy,so. car., & fla. st) & allowed them to throw for 7.5 yppp...on the average these qb's from those 5 teams averaged 6.8 ypp vs. an avergae defense.....so iowa should be able to move the ball vs.fla's. defense....there are a few problems with fla's. offense this year....the players are playing in an offense that they weren't recruited to play....they have also lost their star receiver, caldwell for the season.....since his absence, fla. has averaged 5.3 yppl to teams that allow 5.1 yppl on the average....iowa's defense allows 5.0 yppl on the average to teams that average 5.6 yppl....iowa wins su...


good luck.

 

[AR182]

2.5*u72(120) texas/usc....

i wanted to post this play because it looks like line is going down....i may be wrong but i think the total is about 7 points too high for a national championship game.....true both offenses are great, but think both defenses will be out to prove that they're very good also....also think that texas may try to run more than usual to keep the usc offense off the field...

good luck.....

 

[smurphy]

part "deaux"? ....i guess that's what happens when you hang out with quebecoise too much. i beginning to know the feeling.

Dieu b?nissent le grand nord blanc!

 

[dawgball]

Good luck, AR. I am with you on Iowa and the Under in the championship game.

Happy new year, buddy.

 

[trolln4walii]

What a spectacular year you've had on the college scene this year AR!! And.....thanks for sharing it all with us :thumb: It would be my extreme pleasure to meet you at one of the future MJ outings and buy you SOME rounds :mj14: If I were a smarter man I'd be able to supply the drinks for the whole group. But the stubborn Swede in me didn't take full advantage of what you put out for us each week Ever hear of the Dumb Swede? Here I am :s4: I may be dumb, but I'm not stupid :mj07: Next year, a little less time on my part of the capping, and a lot more time of tailin' you I'm not one to follow blindly but at least my eyes will be more focused on what you have to say :clap: Those wise enough to listen (or read) and learn soon learned that their accounts were full. I'll be on that side next year :yup Good news remaining this year is that I'm on the Mountaineers and I love that Penn State teaser. I'm 0-3 on bowl teasers but feel very confident about that one
Thanks again for all you contribute. The site is very fortunate to have you as a member. Don't know how it would be possible to improve on next year, but here's wishing you all the best for an even more prolific 2006. Happy New Year my friend......and until we meet :toast:

 

[#cruncher]

Super season AR...doesn't get any better than that!

 

[AR182]

thanks guys....appreciate the nice words.....


10*ohio st.-3 (130).....

i may be wrong here but i think this line is off about 3 points.....maybe it's because everybody remembers how n.d. came very close to beating usc....but i really like the match-up for osu in this game...

we know that n.d. has a very good offense....they averaged about 38 points per game.....but imo,osu has a just as good of an offense since smith became the qb.....they have gone over 40 points in 4 of their last 5 games..with smith having a 14/4 td/int. ratio......

taking a further look at the match-up....

n.d. averaged 6.3 yds. per play this season against teams that combined to allow 5.1 yds. per play on defense....osu's defense allowed an excellent 4.3 yds. per play to teams that averaged 6.0 yds. per play...in the 3 games where n.d. faced very good defenses( mich., tenn., & usc) they only averaged 4.5 yppl against defenses that combined to allow 4.3 yppl......so i don't see n.d. having great success against osu's defense.....

in the 8 games in which smith was the qb, osu averaged 6.0 yppl against teams where the defense allowed 4.9 yppl....on defense, n.d. allowed 5.6 yppl to teams whose offense averaged 5.8 yppl on offense....so i expect osu to move the ball well against nd.....

against usc, n.d.averaged 4.8 yppl on offense & allowed a whopping 7.4 yppl on defense....against mich., n.d. averaged 3.4 yppl on offense & allowed 4.6 yppl to michigan....

not only is osu better than n.d. in the offense/defense matchup...osu has probably the top 3 special team units in college.....

i have been reading that by giving the n.d. head coach a month to prepare, he will have his team ready for osu....that may be true.....but tressel isn't exactly a slouch as a coach...look at his won lost record & his bowl record....

in the last 6 games, osu has averaged 25 points per game...under tressel, osu is 34-3 su & 28-8 (77.7%) when scoring 25 or more points....

eventhough i bought the game from -4 to -3 (my own insecurities), i see osu winning this game by at least 2 tds.....final score 35-20....

good luck.

 

[AR182]

2.5* teaser....

bama+11
auburn-3...

bama...

we know that tex. tech has a good offense...but against 5 good defensive teams, tt avaeraged 26 points per game...i think bama should be able to run the ball against tt & should be able to at least keep the game within 10 points....with an out right win a possibility...

an angle supporting the bama play......

teams that lose their final 2 or more regular season games are 35-19-1 ats ( 79.5%) as a dog or pick in their bowl games, including 25-10-1 ats (71%) as a dog of more than 3 points.....

auburn....

i don't like laying double digit points in bowl games, always a possibilty of a back door cover by the dog....but i feel that auburn has significant edges on both offense & defense over wisconsin if you look at their stats against bowl opponents....

both bama & auburn have better run defenses than their respective opponents....

so far this year teams with the better run def. are 8-2 ats this year and dogs in this category are 4-0 this year and 12-3 the last three years....

off to vegas for a few days.....good luck & enjoy the games...

 

[AR182]

finished up the bowl season going...

10-6 +10.60*

nothing great...

good luck & see you on the nfl side...

 

[Dizzayton]

Good job. You called the Ohio State game to a T.

 

[AR182]

thanks dizzayton....appreciate it...