AntiConsensus 2006

[BobbyBlueChip]

This is the time of the year that I do well by going straight anti-consensus (also works in the NCAA bowls) Taken from another site, here is the consensus as of 10:35 CST

Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct
Air Force +8 455 25.74% Illinois -8 1313 74.26%
Pacific +7.5 533 28.66% BC -7.5 1327 71.34%
Winthrop +6.5 610 33.21% Tennessee -6.5 1227 66.79%
S Alabama +8 619 35.05% Fla -8 1147 64.95%
Xavier +5.5 651 36.11% Gonzaga -5.5 1152 63.89%
Belmont +19 601 36.27% UCLA -19 1056 63.73%
Texas A&M +1 687 36.5% Syracuse -1 1195 63.5%
Southern +24 595 37.05% Duke -24 1011 62.95%
Alabama +2.5 735 39.86% Marquette -2.5 1109 60.14%
Montana +7 693 39.92% Nevada -7 1043 60.08%
NC-Wilmington +2.5 729 40.5% GW -2.5 1071 59.5%
Iona +7.5 686 40.62% LSU -7.5 1003 59.38%
Utah St. +6.5 714 41.08% Wash -6.5 1024 58.92%
SDSU. +2 825 45.43% Indiana -2 991 54.57%
Wis.-Milwaukee +2.5 892 47.45% Oklahoma -2.5 988 52.55%
Seton Hall +2.5 1067 56.16% Wichita St. -2.5 833 43.84%

System calls for fading any team backed by 70+%. Last four years, system went 24-12 and has made a profit for the two years before that (Didn't keep the records.) Simply, This is a time of the year that you don't want to be on the side of the public. Good Luck to all in the tourney!!

Play on:
AFA & Pacific

Good Luck!

 

[gardenweasel]

just got back from a late walk awhile ago(abusing the sidewalk with cruel and hegemonic footsteps/"shoe beatings").......

and was happy to see bobby`s umteenth annual "contrarian thread" waiting for me...

haven`t been following college hoops as closely as i`d have liked to this year(translation:...feeling seriously clueless...last year,my basketball i.q. was measured as wind-chill).....

b.b.c....doesn`t this thing usually start slowly and finish fast?... :shrug:.... maybe i`m wrong...

whatever....lets hit `em in the scroticles...


thanks,bobby....

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

gw, our college basketball IQ's are pretty similar which makes the cut and paste handicapping so beneficial. Historically, the majority of the plays are in the first weekend and then it's much harder to get a 70% consensus as there's better teams playing and people get tired of playing favorites. Between you and me, I'm not happy having my money on Air Force and Pacific, but it'll make sense later.

Take care

 

[Franky Wright]

BBC,
Just curious where you get your consensus #'s from?
Thanks
Franky

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System Record 0-2 thanks for the jinx, gw

Franky, It's from a site that I can't post here, but if you follow consensus, you know who it is.

Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Record
George Mason +4 489 23.51% Michigan St -4 1591 76.49%
Bradley +7 478 23.76% Kansas -7 1534 76.24%
Murray St. +12 506 26.23% North Carolina -12 1423 73.77%
Northwestern State +7 538 26.26% Iowa -7 1511 73.74%
Northern Iowa +4 569 26.68% Georgetown -4 1564 73.32%
Oral Roberts +12 546 26.94% Memphis -12 1481 73.06%
Albany +21 514 27.43% Connecticut -21 1360 72.57%
Southern Illinois +4.5 607 29.11% West Virginia -4.5 1478 70.89%
Davidson +11 594 29.51% Ohio St -11 1419 70.49%
Kent St. +6.5 604 30.29% Pittsburgh -6.5 1390 69.71%
Pennsylvania +15 703 37.02% Texas -15 1196 62.98%
Monmouth-NJ +20 422 38.43% Villanova -20 676 61.57%
Bucknell +5 1075 52.01% Arkansas -5 992 47.99%
UAB +3 1119 53.11% Kentucky -3 988 46.89%
No. Carolina St -2 1091 53.35% California +2 954 46.65%
Wisconsin +1 1186 56.72% Arizona -1 905 43.28%

Play on:
George Mason
Bradley
Murray State
Northwestern State
Northern Iowa
Oral Roberts
Albany
Southern Illinois
Davidson

 

[IX_Bender]

AF didnt cover the game line, but if you took them at the half +3 then they had a miracle cover on the adjusted +10 (since they were down 7 @HT)

Franky, I dont specifically follow consensus - only as a last second addendum to my handicapping the game itself. But if you like to wager on the line - then you might know where BBC is talking about.

 

[gardenweasel]

i see the wagering septic tank backed up again....

sheesh...2 ridiculous losses..could easily have been wins...

i picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue...

but,this jonah ain`t quittin`.....i believe that we might take some lumps early....

the books are reeling the suckers in...

i made up my mind that i was betting the absolute minimum in the 1st round......

i`ll up `em a little each round....because the books usually like to finish strongly...

as a great and wise t.v. star once said...

"you have failed to snatch the pebble...and you question reality....you have much to learn,grasshopper"....

translation...the books will get theirs...sooner or later....

stay the course....

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System Record 6-5

Time (ET) Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct View
8:10 PM Indiana +3 277 30.47% Gonzaga -3 632 69.53% Detail
5:30 PM Washington +2 285 32.68% Illinois -2 587 67.32% Detail
8:00 PM Alabama +7.5 329 36.6% UCLA -7.5 570 63.4% Detail
1:10 PM George Washington +9 380 43.28% Duke -9 498 56.72% Detail
5:40 PM Montana +11 411 47.62% Boston College -11 452 52.38% Detail
5:50 PM Texas A&M +5.5 409 48.23% Louisiana State -5.5 439 51.77% Detail
3:40 PM Wichita St. +3 480 51.95% Tennessee -3 444 48.05% Detail
11:00 AM Manhattan +12 471 58.36% Maryland -12 336 41.64% Detail
3:20 PM Wis.-Milwaukee +7 539 59.62% Florida -7 365 40.38% Detail

No system plays for today but interesting to see Gonzaga getting so much love considering their recent ATS performance and UWM also is interesting. Line does seem high, but . . .

Good Luck!!

 

[gardenweasel]

i`m going to "veer" off into uncharted territory and play 2 of my own.....

taking tx a+m+5.5 and g.w+10(bought)........

when these lose,i promise to get back with the program....

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

Time (ET) Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct View
12:10 PM Bradley +4.5 301 25.79% Pittsburgh -4.5 866 74.21% Detail
2:40 PM Northwestern State +8 367 30.66% West Virginia -8 830 69.34% Detail
2:20 PM George Mason +5.5 361 31.89% North Carolina -5.5 771 68.11% Detail
2:30 PM Kentucky +9 435 40.39% Connecticut -9 642 59.61% Detail
4:50 PM Georgetown +2.5 503 41.26% Ohio St -2.5 716 58.74% Detail
2:15 PM Bucknell +8 518 43.53% Memphis -8 672 56.47% Detail
4:45 PM No. Carolina St +6 489 44.78% Texas -6 603 55.22% Detail
5:00 PM Arizona +6.5 582 49.49% Villanova -6.5 594 50.51% Detail

Play on: Bradley

 

[CryBoy]

2:40 PM Northwestern State +8 367 30.66% West Virginia -8 830 69.34% Detail
Round that up to 70% and take the +8 that opened at +5.5.

 

[CryBoy]

I jumped that gun there...

New stats...

12:10 PM Bradley +5 365 25.94% Pittsburgh -5 1042 74.06% Detail
2:20 PM George Mason +6 429 31.82% North Carolina -6 919 68.18% Detail
2:40 PM Northwestern State +8 457 32.95% West Virginia -8 930 67.05% Detail
4:50 PM Georgetown +2 585 41.02% Ohio St -2 841 58.98% Detail
2:30 PM Kentucky +9 540 42.19% Connecticut -9 740 57.81% Detail
4:45 PM No. Carolina St +6 570 43.91% Texas -6 728 56.09% Detail
2:15 PM Bucknell +8.5 616 44.22% Memphis -8.5 777 55.78% Detail
5:00 PM Arizona +6.5 675 48.88% Villanova -6.5 706 51.12% Detail

That would be a no play on NW then.

 

[BobbyBlueChip]

System Record 7-5

Time (ET) Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct View
7:25 PM Bradley +6 496 32.5% Memphis -6 1030 67.5% Detail
7:10 PM Louisiana State +6 625 37% Duke -6 1064 63% Detail
9:55 PM Gonzaga +3 801 48.22% UCLA -3 860 51.78% Detail
9:40 PM West Virginia +5 838 55.53% Texas -5 671 44.47% Detail

No plays today. For informational purposes only. Good Luck!