Friday, April 21 MLB PLAYS

[ndnfan]

YTD RECORD MLB: 16-26 (-13.72 UNITS)


Thanks for all the Happy Birthday wishes yesterday! Instead of 2-0, ended up 1-1 losing some juice thanks to San Diego's bullpen.

Still struggling to get going this season, but going to keep plugging away. Played 6 today including my first double play:

HOUSTON -115 (RODRIGUEZ VS DUKE LISTED)

SAN FRANCISCO -112 (SCHMIDT VS JENNINGS LISTED)

BALTIMORE +164 (BENSON VS WANG LISTED)

UNDER 9.5 CLEVELAND -112 (LEE VS REDMAN LISTED)

UNDER 8 OAKLAND -115 (HARDEN VS LACKEY LISTED)

SEATTLE -105 (WASHBURN VS MAROTH LISTED) **2 UNIT PLAY**


Good luck to all :thumb:

-ndnfan

 

[Ronnie]

Good Luck NDNfan! Hope you had a good birthday. I'm certain you'll turn it around soon, keep plugging away.

 

[RAYMOND]

pete what do you see in seattle tonight

 

[ndnfan]

Ray......Unlike Washburn in this game, I have bundles of possible negatives for Detroit starter Maroth. I know he?s 2-0 with a 0.73 ERA, but I think that?s a little deceptive and it?s also the reason why I think there?s a ton of value in the betting line for Seattle. Taking a look at his 2 starts:

Maroth?s last start was vs Cleveland. A game in which he dominated them, but remember, it?s a team that he is now 7-1 against in his last 9 starts. It shouldn?t have been that big of surprise. His only other start was a game where he was more true to form allowing plenty of base runners but only 1 run?could have easily been more. In other words, that ERA isn?t going to stay as low as it is all season long and he?s not going to go undefeated this season. But it is certainly going to give you value right now in betting Seattle at Home vs him at an almost pick?em line.

Not a lot of notes on Washburn in this one. He has historically pitched well at Safeco over the years and in his only home start this season he pitched a very good game picking up the win.

Both starters are lefties, and neither team today has hit lefties that well this season. Although Detroit is hitting .307 vs righties this season, they are hitting just .222 vs lefties and even worse vs lefties on the road (.212)

Seattle has not hit southpaws well either this season, but just think there?s a lot of weaknesses or negatives going for Maroth today. Let?s look:

Maroth?s career ERA on the Road is close to a full run higher than his career ERA at Home (5.20 vs 4.34)

Maroth?s career BAA on the Road is .301 vs .277 at Home.

Maroth?s ERA is even higher at night than during the day over the career.

Maroth?s Lifetime ERA vs Seattle is a whopping 7.55 and has given up a combined 68 hits and walks in those 39.1 innings of work vs them. That?s a lot of base runners.

Maroth really hate?s pitching at Safeco. In 3 career starts, he is 0-2 with a 15.95 ERA allowing an amazing combined total of 25 hits and walks in just 7.1 innings.

Maroth is not 100% healthy. He has been experiencing elbow soreness and there was a chance even that he would be pushed back in this one.

Bottom line, I?m trying to take advantage of a very weak line and reading the situations and stats in between just the records and ERA?s, I think we have a weak line. Besides, I?m in the HOLE and I need to start trying something to get it back

Good luck!

 

[RAYMOND]

have this


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TIGERS
DET VS LEFTIES ON THE ROAD AT NITE AVG 7.8 RUNS

SEATTLE 0-4 VS LEFTIES AND AVG 3.8 RUNS

POWER RATING DET 16 SEA 7 BIG EDGE FOR THE TIGERS

bullpen edge to the tigers era 3.24 sea 4.99


Tigers are 3-0 in Maroth's last 3 starts on Grass.
Tigers are 3-0 in Maroth's last 3 starts vs. American League West.
Tigers are 7-1 in Maroth's last 8 night starts.
Tigers are 6-1 in Maroth's last 7 road starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Tigers are 5-1 in Maroth's last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Tigers are 10-4 in Maroth's last 14 starts.
Tigers are 5-2 in Maroth's last 7 road starts.


Tigers are 3-0 in their last 3 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Tigers are 5-1 in their last 6 night games.
Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Tigers are 7-2 in their last 9 vs. American League West.
Tigers are 7-2 in their last 9 road games.
Tigers are 9-4 in their last 13 games following a win.



Mariners are 3-7 in their last 10 Friday games.
Mariners are 2-6 in their last 8 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 games on Grass.
Mariners are 1-4 in their last 5 overall.
Mariners are 1-5 in their last 6 home games.
Mariners are 1-5 in their last 6 home games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Mariners are 0-5 in their last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
Mariners are 0-3 in their last 3 home games vs. a left-handed starter.
Mariners are 0-3 in their last 3 during game 1 of a series.
Mariners are 0-3 in their last 3 home games vs. a team with a winning record.
__________________

 

[ndnfan]

Ray, seen that in your thread. Always check your stuff and I agree that a lot of trends are going against me in this one but that's also why the tigers aren't favored by more. I'm not saying the trends won't continue, but I also feel that I have the more of the key particulars swaying against Maroth and the Tigers in this one.

Not saying I'm right, but it IS how I capped out this game and with the line being -105 gave me enough reason to play it for a double. Had the line come out at around -130 to -135, I'd still have played it as a normal play.

I know it's a stupid saying, but "At least one of us will win"

Good luck today and the rest of the season......We are on the same page on a couple games today such as Baltimore and Houston.

 

[White Shadow]

Good Luck Pete and Happy B-Day. Bring some of that birthday cabbage to the card game in a few weeks.

 

[RAYMOND]

happy birthday pete