SMOKES FIRST 1/2 RECAP & 2ND HALF PROJECTIONS!

[SMOKE JENSEN]

Well the first half of the baseball season finished on a down note with Sundays 1-2. But the first half RL system overall finished with great success.

W-137
L-140 @49%
+$26,616
+60.68 units
+$194.27 a win

So far,So good!

Now the second half projections. And let me stress. I'm not the brightest bulb on the tree. So this is the best way I could come up with a feasible forecast. If any one sees a mistake or has a different opinion. Please feel free to post.


We had 277 plays the first half. I assume that's a good amount to project we'll have the second half. Give or take a few. Even thou we finished at 49%. I prefer to be conservative in my projection for the second half. I would prefer to forecast the RL hitting at just 43%. At this %. This would put our won/loss record rounded off at W-119 L-158.

At the $194 a win recorded in the 1st half. this would project out to:

W-119
L-158 @43%
+$23,086

Off course if I raise my units as we go.. This would throw off the numbers a little.

And the ML cost "frays" will save some money too on the one run wins. It happened 35 times the first half.

So in closing. This is the best I can come up with. Again: Any thoughts, diff. opinions are welcome. Let me know.

 

[Its Gravy]

looks good to me
smokey robinson

 

[hammer1]

Whatever ur doing ur doing it

Whatever ur doing ur doing it

extremely well so just keep it up....my small contribution is to voice a diff opinion when it pops up.
Been 5 so far.......5 -0. lets use it to make all of us have better records..just a joke here buddy ..my wise a** side cant resist.................5 - 0 Fadin Smoke.

keep up the phenomenal work. Have never seen anyone do this well playing run lines.

 

[Kegger]

Smoke-

Have you played the run lines other years, and if so, have you done this well in the past?

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

Smoke-

Have you played the run lines other years, and if so, have you done this well in the past?

No. Always just the ML.

 

[yanno]

Congrats on a fantastic run. Great experiment! I have one question about those moneyline "backup" plays.

Have you run the numbers to see whether the moneyline plays by themselves made or lost money? They are clearly going to offset some RL losses in the one run games that win, but what about the games where both bets are losses? I'm just asking whether making those moneyline "fray" plays actually saves you money?

Again, have a GREAT 2nd Half!

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

Congrats on a fantastic run. Great experiment! I have one question about those moneyline "backup" plays.

Have you run the numbers to see whether the moneyline plays by themselves made or lost money? They are clearly going to offset some RL losses in the one run games that win, but what about the games where both bets are losses? I'm just asking whether making those moneyline "fray" plays actually saves you money?

Again, have a GREAT 2nd Half!

Yanno. Yes they have made a nice profit. I will have the exact fiqures for you later. Got to go to town first. Just win/loss nmbers for the ML plays are: W-172 l-105 @62% that's up to date. During the first half there was 35 times the "fray" came into play. That's 20.35% of the time. I will have the exact $$$ numbers later the ML has produced.

 

[SMOKE JENSEN]

Yanno and others tailing along. After much thought and discussion I have come to the conclusion that I might have been thinking wrong in playing the ML too along with the RL. Yes the first half the ML hit at a great rate. And yes on its own it made good profit. And yes it helped fray the losses 35 tmes. But Yanno got me thinking.... If I would have just put the extra money that I have been putting on the ML, on the RL. The RL would have produced double the profits. The extra profit would have far outweighed the "frays" playing the ML. And even the extra cash generated by the ML wins. As you all know. The RL & alt RL system/formula can hit at a far less % than the ML and make serious profit. While the ML almost has to hit at a 58% or more clip to make good profit.



So to start the 2nd half. I will not play the ML. Just the RL. I will place my unit starting today at $800. Wish me luck. I hope I'm thinking straight on this. Like I said. No math genius here. Thanks again Yanno.