Week 2

[Wise and Wiser]

Record: [5-2]
Profit/Loss: +2,800

PHILLY -3
Risking $1,100 to win $1,000

1. The pressure is on Giant this week. They don't want to start off the season 0-2. In today's NY Post, Coughlin and the players talked a lot about living up to the high expectations they put on themselves before the season began. Coughlin said, "I really think we've got to stop talking about being good and get good. All of these expectations and all of this talk, that's all nice and all wonderful to hear, boom, it doesn't mean a thing if you don't win. You've got to win. You've got to perform when the pressure's on and you've got to win." Doesn't it sound like the Giants are panicking just a little heading into week two? On the other hand, the Eagles are flying under the radar this year. Before the season began, everyone talked about the Skin, Cowboy, and Giant fighting it out for first in the NFC East. Nobody gave Philly a chance based on last year's performance. Here's what McNabb had to say in today's Philadelphia Enquirer, "It's a different type of attitude this year. It was a kind of joy to get back out on the field, see guys smiling, laughing, pushing each other, motivating each other." Donovan is right about the Eagles' new attitude, and I see these two teams bringing different attitudes into this game on Sunday. I like the team playing without pressure, and the team that is having fun!

2. Backup DB Rod Hood will start in place of Lito Sheppard this week. Believe it or not, Hood actually makes the Eagles' defense even stronger. According to Pro Football Prospectus 2006, Hood was the third-best cornerback in the NFL last season at stopping pass plays that were targeted in his direction. Sheppard was 79th. Hood allowed the fewest amount of yards on passes thrown his way, with a 4.9 yard average. Sheppard ranked 81st in the league with a 10.4 yard average. More importantly, Hood held Plaxico Burress to two catches for 34 yards in the second meeting with the Giant last season.

3. The Eagles have double revenge against a divisional opponent on their side. Philly lost both games to New York last season (17-27 at New York, 23-26 at home). The Eagles started Mike McMahon at quarterback and Ryan Moats at tailback in the 3 point home loss to the Giant. Obviously, this Eagles team is much better with McNabb and Westbrook at those positions. Beating Houston was one thing, but the Eagles would love to prove they are a team to be reckoned with this season by beating the highly touted Giants on Sunday.

4. Shockey is really banged up right now. I expect him to play on Sunday, but I'm not sure how effective he will be. If Shockey is ineffective, and Hood locks up Burress again, that will put tremendous pressure on Barber. Toomer is a nice compliment to Burress and Shockey in the passing game, but he can't carry the load. I think the Eagles are going to play single coverage on Burress and Toomer with Hood and Sheldon Brown. This will allow the Eagles' front 7 to concentrate on stopping Barber. I think Barber is going to be restricted to the middle of the field on Sunday, and I don't see him having a big game against this tough Eagles' defense.

5. Let's not forget that Eli hasn't had much success on the road in his brief NFL career. He also hasn't shown the ability to get it done in big games. This is a BIG game for the Giant!

6. The early money is on the Giants. I'm sure the public is thinking the Eagles have a better chance of starting out 1-1 than the Giants have of starting out 0-2. Maybe so, but I want to be with the books on this high profile game.

 

[Killrus]

nice

nice

Good writeup, looks like a good play. Good luck!

 

[The Sponge]

You can write up any articles you want but i know Mcnab like the back of my hand and he never in his entire career have a good game against a team i know which has a good defense. What i saw of the giants sunday night is their defense is for real. Most catches the colts got their was a defensemen within a foot of them. When you are as inaccurate as Mcnab is, these will be interceptions or poor throws. I don't see the Giants losing this game. This isn't the terrible Texans.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Eli has played well against good defenses?

 

[Old School]

FWIW,

Giants pass Def. will have to improve over last year for GMen to be taken seriously as the 16 Regular Season games unfold...

I would be interested to see the verus the side and total of the last 6 meetings between these 2 clubs...

the BETUS schedule has EAGLES covering 5 of the last 6 verus Giants:shrug:

 

[AR182]

w & w...

very nice write-ups...

eventhough i'm a long time giant fan, i will be pulling for you....

good luck.

 

[MrChristo]

Some very solid reasoning there W&W.

Best of luck.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Thanks fellas! I will be adding another team later in the week to this 6 point tease:

SEATTLE -1 & DALLAS PK (6 PT TEASE)
Risking $1,100 to win $1,000

Seattle

I want to pick the Cardinal in this game, I really do! I enjoy watching Warner throw the ball downfield to his talented receivers. I also wouldn't mind fading the Super Bowl loser from last year on a weekly basis. However, I won't be picking Arizona this week because the numbers don't lie! Here they are:

Seattle is 41-18-2 (69%) ATS in its last 61 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in previous game (38 at DET)
Arizona is 15-39-1 ATS (28%) in its last 55 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in previous game (84 vs. SF)
Seattle is 15-4 SU at home last 3 years
Arizona is 3-13 SU on road last 3 years

Only 6 teams in the NFL allowed more points per game than Arizona did last year (24.2). San Fran put up 27 in Arizona last week, so it appears the Cardinal haven't done much to improve their porous defense. Seattle beat Arizona last year 37-12 at home and 33-19 in Arizona. Those two games weren't even close! I don't think the Seahawks are as good as they were last year, but has Arizona improved enough to pull off the road upset? I don't think so. Not when it lost by 25 just a year ago. San Fran carried the ball 18 times for 107 yards last week (5.9 yards per carry). If the Niner averaged 6 yards per carry, I'm scared to think about what Seattle and Alexander might do against Zona. The Cardinal carried the ball 29 times for 84 yards last week (2.9 yards per carry). Edge is one of the best running backs in the history of the NFL, but even he can't average more than 3 yards per carry behind this offensive line. Seattle's run defense is a hell of a lot better than San Fr an's! Looks like Warner will be chucking the ball all day long. That recipe didn't work so well for the 4-12 Cardinals last year!

Dallas

This one is tough, because I can see Skin covering the 6 point spread, but I think Dallas wins straight up. Here's why:

*"We've put ourselves in a tough situation going down to Dallas," cornerback Shawn Springs said. "Somebody in the NFC East is going to be 0-2, and that's not where you want to be." That's right Shawn, somebody is going to be 0-2 after Sunday, and there is a very good chance it's going to be your squad, partially due to your inability to play in this big game. Springs is currently listed as doubtful. I can't see him playing on Sunday. That means second year pro Carlos Rogers and Kenny Wright will start at the defensive back positions. That's not good news for Washington! Terry Glenn posted 157 receiving yards and a touchdown last year at home against Washington, and Springs did play in that game. There's a guy named Owens who will play on the opposite side of Glenn, maybe you've heard of him? I just can't see Washington's secondary being able to contain these two potent wide receivers on Sunday night in primetime.

*The only chance Washington has of winning this game is if it can put defensive pressure on Bledsoe. Bledsoe might be the most immobile quarterback in the league. If he's not, Brunell is. Anyway, if the Skins' front 7 is able to get to Bledsoe, and thus prevent him from getting the ball to Glenn and Owens, Washington will win this game. Problem is, Washington only had one sack on Monday night against Brad Johnson, another candidate for Mr. Immobility! Minnesota's offensive line might be better than Dallas', but I heard at least one member of Dallas' offensive line say he felt the line let the team down on Sunday in Jacksonville, therefore I expect the big uglies in Big D to respond this week.

*Dallas has double revenge against a divisional opponent on its side. Not only are the Skins a divisional opponent, they are also a bitter rival. Dallas had Washington beat at home last year, before Washington scored 14 unanswered points in the final 3:45 of the 4th quarter. Do you think Parcells and the Boys have forgotten about that loss? If so, I'm sure Tuna will remind his players throughout the week.

*The Skins' offensive players still don't have a grasp of new coordinator Saunders' system. The offense struggled throughout the preseason, which played a big part in Washington's 0-4 record, and it only scored one touchdown on Sunday night. The Skins continually stalled in the red zone against the Vikings. It's going to take more than a couple of games before the offense starts to execute like Saunders expects them to. Working out the kinks on the road in a rivalry game is not an ideal situation to be in.

>Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games in Dallas.
>Washington is 3-13 ATS in the last 16 meetings with Dallas.

Bottom line, I love betting on a Parcells coached team following a loss. Bill, Drew, and TO are three of the fiercest competitors in the league. After the loss to Jacksonville, Owens had this to say in his post-game press conference, "The offense didn't get it done today. We let the team down. Not just Drew, the entire offense. We are going to go back to the drawing board. We will work hard to correct our mistakes this week, and we will play better next Sunday." I tune out about 95% of what TO says, but this definitely caught my attention!

 

[Wise and Wiser]

SAN FRAN +3
Risking $1,100 to win $1,000

My first dog pick of the week! Going with Niner in this one. Here's what I'm thinking:

*There are 5 late games on Sunday (AZ/SEA, KC/DEN, TEN/SD, NE/NYJ, STL/SF), and I already picked the favorite to win SU in 3 of those games (SEA, DEN, SD). At least one dog will win SU, we all know this, and I think you would agree with me that it's not going to be AZ, KC, or TEN. In my opinion, it will either be Jet or Niner, maybe both.

*I don't ever feel comfortable picking Ram on the road. Kind of like Arizona. Ram just don't get it done away from home on grass. Don't believe me, check out these trends:

>Rams are 10-26 ATS in their last 36 road games.
>Rams are 4-13 ATS in their last 17 games as a road favorite.
>Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
>Rams are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
>Rams are 6-12 SU the last 3 years on the road.

*Niner beat Ram both times last season. I think Niner are better this year than they were last year, at least on offense. Playmakers Gore, Bryant, and Davis have got to make you better. I'm not sure Ram are better. The front office basically brought back the same team. They just hired a new coach who brings with him a new system that puts more emphasis on the run.

*Public currently backing St. Louis at a 72% clip based on its performance last week against Denver. Total overreaction in my opinion. I'm sure the square bettors are saying, "The Rams are playing one of the worst teams in the NFL, and I only have to lay 3 points!"

 

[Eagles311]

I'm a huge Eagles fan and I hope you win your Eagles bet.


I have to say seeing you on San Fran +3 made me feel good. This is by far my favorite play on the board and it may be my only play because I feel so good about it. In fact I think moneyline is the way to go. Public will be on the Rams and the line probably wont move. Go Niners!

 

[Jman90]

W&W, I'm with you on the Niners. Look for another big day from Gore. The Niners put Warner in the dirt plenty last week and will do the same with Bulger. Niners +3 is actually my play of the week.

gl

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Added Dallas PK to my 6 point tease in the 8th post of this thread.

 

[Jman90]

Another reason to take the Niners is the Rams starting C, Andy McCollum , is out for the year. He tore his ACL & MCL last weekend. He's being replaced by Larry Turner. Turner was cut last year by the Rams. This will be a tight one but I like the Niners and possibly the over 43.5.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

GREEN BAY +2
Risking $1,100 to win $1,000

I'm sure you're going to question this pick, hell, I'm questioning it myself, but I'm going with Butt Favre and the Fudge Packers on Sunday. Here's why:

*The public is backing the Saint in this game (64%), and the line has moved from PK to -2. Looks like the public has moved the line, not sharp bettors. I'll side with the books on this extremely difficult pick.

*Aint have dropped 7 straight at Lambeau. I know what you're thinking, "Those losses were against good Green Bay teams, that trend means nothing." Well, Green Bay might have been the worst team in the NFL last season, but it still beat New Orleans 52-3 at home. Green Bay is 14-5 all-time vs. New Orleans.

*Favre has played 4 games against Aint in his 16 year career. He threw for 939 yards with 10 touchdowns and one pick in those 4 games. I know Favre is done, he should've called it quits after last year, but he has listened to the negative press all week. If he has one more " I'll respond in a big way" game left in him, I think it might be on Sunday against a team he has owned. If not, I will never use this angle again when capping the Packers.

*What are the chances New Orleans wins back-to-back road games? I know the Packers suck, but we're also talking about the Aints! It is extremely difficult for good teams to win back-to-back games on the road in the NFL, much less the woeful Aints. Not to mention, New Orleans is favored. I don't think New Orleans should be favored in this game. Total overreaction based on last week's outcomes in my opinion. Aint are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. They won as a dog last week, let's see how they handle the favorite role.

*Packer head coach McCarthy served as the Aint offensive coordinator up until 2004. He might know a little bit about how to limit Deuce and Horn on offense.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Sweetheart 3 Team 10 Point Tease:

BALTIMORE -2
SAN DIEGO -1.5
DENVER -1

Risking $1,100 to win $1,000

Baltimore

I'm going to make this one really short! Did you see Aaron Brooks get sacked 7 times on Monday night? And did you hear that Jerry Porter was seen pumping his fist and laughing after the 7th sack? Total chaos in Oaktown! I will be hard-pressed to pick the Raider at all this year. They might even lose their bye next week!

San Diego

Since 1989, an away dog of 10 or more, off any ATS loss as a home favorite of 3 or less, if this week's opponent was on the road the previous week, is 2-15 ATS (average loss of 20.4)! In other words, Tennessee is getting more than 10 points, the Titans didn't cover at home last week as a home favorite of less than 3, and San Diego played in Oakland last week. This trend is hitting at an 88% clip ATS over the past 17 years! I won't be betting against it. Thanks Mr. Christo!

Denver

Gotta' go with Bronco in this one. Here's why:

*Damon Huard will be making his first NFL start at QB. Prior to last week, Huard had only thrown one NFL pass in 3 years. He looked good last week (12 for 20, 140 yards, one touchdown, no interceptions), but I expect Denver to stack at least 8 defenders in the box to stop LJ. Shanahan and the Broncos' coaching staff will find a way to make Huard beat them. Not to mention, Huard is making his first start on the road. Denver is a tough place to get a win, even when your starting QB is a seasoned veteran. Case in point, the Broncos beat Kansas City by 20 last season at home. Trent Green was the QB in that game. Denver isn't as good as it was last season, but neither is Kansas City. In fact, based on what I saw last week, the Chiefs have gotten a lot worse. They are in for a long season!

*Broncos are 55-12-1 ATS in their last 68 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game (161 at STL). That's 82% ATS in this situation. Won't be betting against that!
*Broncos are 12-3-3 ATS in their last 18 vs. AFC West.
*Broncos are 14-4-2 ATS in their last 20 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
*When a dog of 10 or more points (KC) is coming off a home loss of 10 or more points ATS (KC), and the opposing team is also coming off a loss of 10 or more points ATS (DEN), the dog (KC) has covered just once in the last 12 opportunities, and the average margin of victory for the favorite (DEN) has been 18.2! Thanks again Mr. Christo!

 

[no pepper]

Another reason to take the Niners is the Rams starting C, Andy McCollum , is out for the year. He tore his ACL & MCL last weekend. He's being replaced by Larry Turner. Turner was cut last year by the Rams. This will be a tight one but I like the Niners and possibly the over 43.5.

Looks like Richie Incognito out of Nebraska will shift from LG to center and put Turner back on the bench. Rams have changed a lot of personnel since their dismal days on grass fields. Niners beat them both times last year so they will be out for revenge. Of course I am a homer when it comes to the Rams and have lost so much loot on them in the past few seasons that I am forced to eat salad dressing and ramen noodles. GL with your plays. I really like Seattle too.

 

[sdf]

the sharps bet NOR from +1 to -1.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Thanks for the info. sdf. So, sharps and squares on the same side, I like the Packers even more now!

 

[Eagles311]

I'm on the Eagles now too! Loving the Birds and 49ers.

 

[The Sponge]

Eli has played well against good defenses?

Wise Eli as i agree with you is still overrated but i saw a few things out of him Sunday night that i was a little impressed with. That being said they have Tiki, Shockey and Plex. Tiki is always a thorn for the Eagles. Mcnab his entire career has won because of the defense except the Owens year. Their defense is not as good as it use to be and the teams they are playing are not as bad. Eagles tight end is average at best and Westbrook is a player but not against this defense he wont be. If you win this game you can mark my words Mcnab will get all the calls. He will throw bad balls up and get fantom interferance calls or he will go three and out and get the fantom defensive holding call to extend the drive. When he was the poster boy for the NFL this is how he moved against good defenses. All you have to do is go back and look at the films.