Week 4 Card (Sept 21st-23rd)

Irish

Irish

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Troy (+21) over Nebraska
The cornhurskers were exposed last weekend and they should have a bit of a lay off after such an emotional contest. Troy isn't backing down from any team regardless of where they play. After giving FSU all they could handle 2 weeks ago they almost beat GT in thier house last week until the 4th. Haugebook is a ok QB that can make trows but he makes far too many mistakes and that is never a good thing in Nebraska. Gary Banks is a solid playmaker at WR and the spread offense look features all the WR and has been most productive. Nebraska is a decent team and they have beat up on poor teams but they have only played one good team in their 3 games. This is a fiesty Troy team that will not be affraid of nebraska and considering the let down from the USC game IMO I like that amount of chalk.

I will try to have my weekend write ups in before friday as I am going out of town this weekend.

Cheers
Irish
 
Irish

Irish

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UTEP (-9.5) over New Mexico
New Mexico is fresh off a ten point loss at home against Mizzou. In that game the Tigers were able to move the ball on the ground and through the air. UTEP will have to step up and stop the run. Stopping the run puts the ball in Nelsons hands. He has ability but doesn't complete a good number of pases. He is less than 50% on the year. Now of those passes about 85% of the yards go to Marcus Smith. This guy is the game breaker and that is where DEMPS needs to roll coverage to and shut him down. UTEP needs to mix up coverage on Smith, if they don't show thier hand they will get Nelson to throw into coverage and again demps could have a huge game. UNM's defense, which had seemed to figure out the Tigers offense in the second and third quarters, gave up touchdown drives of 80 and 72 yards. This means UTEP can run underneath route and shout outs and continue LONG drives. Higgins speed is IMO too much for the NM defense and he can get deep on this secondary. My biggest concern is Palmer and his turnover prone play. He needs to settle down and make the right throw not the sportcenter highlight throw. Coming off a heartbreakering loss and having an extra week to plan I like what the miners offense is capable of doing in this game. 9.5 is a lot but off a loss and the rest UTEP should be ready to open this game up.

Cheers
Irish
 
Irish

Irish

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Hawaii (+15) over Boise
This play smells like a loser just based on Hawaii being a bad road team and Boise being a very good home team but I like what the Warriors bring to the table. The Broncos entered last weekend with the nation's 8th-best scoring offense through two games. Boise State's defense is ranked fourth in the country, allowing 198.7 yards per game. Not only has Boise defense stepped up but they are extremely powerful running the ball now. Then there is the QB, Zabransky had a solid game in last year's 44-41 victory at Hawaii, completing 18 of 33 passes for 207 yards and three touchdowns. The Warriors are visiting Boise for the first time since a 69-3 loss two years ago. The Broncos have won 32 of their last 33 WAC games, including all 20 at home since joining the conference in 2001. NOW saying all those scary facts and probably making some people play Boise. Here are some of my reasons, Hawaii allowed 438.4 yards per game a year ago, but has improved to allow 324.5 through its first two contests. Brennan complets about 70% of his passes, but made bigmistakes against bama. Hawaii averages 359 yards passing per game, iIncluding 320 yards in alabama. The hawaii offense is very strong passing the ball and Oregon St proved you can throw on Boise. I am not seeing this as Hawaii has to stop Boise, they have to run with them and they can do that in this game. Playing a close game at Bama makes me think these are not the same warriors on the road. They will give them their all and with this offense and coaching staff IMO the warriors will play with Boise. Boise is the better team but I would put it past Hawaii to stay in this game.

Cheers
Irish
 
D

Dayad

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Dec 14, 2005
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NM
Totally agree with you on UTEP. I live in NM and the Lobos flat out stink. Mizzou did everything possible to blow the game last week and couldn't. UNM's starting QB is out for the year and the freshman played decent vs Mizzou. This is easy pickin's for utep
 
Irish

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GT (-17) over UVA
Jackets have lost the last three meetings with the Cavaliers, including a 27-17 setback last year at Virginia. Virginia also won the last meeting in Atlanta, 30-10, in 2004. This is a difference UVA team and considering they have score less than 2 TD's per game against bad defensive teams. UVA has 51 yards a game on the ground and a mediocre 174 through the air. The UVA offense will have some serious issues with the speed of GT. The yellow jackets defense had questions to begin the season but they have answered most of them against ND. The young secondary has stepped up and they should continue against this UVA team. GT beat Troy by 15 points and personally I think Troy is a much better team than UVA. I think UVA will struggle with the mobility of Reggie Ball. The yellow jackets QB has be making big plays running the ball and he should continue tonight as UVA will not be able to play run, pass and play breakdown. Not only will UVA struggle against Reggie Ball but there is no player in the UVA secondary that can keep coverage on Calvin Johnson. This is a very good match up because while UVA tries everything to stop Calvin Johnson, James Johnson should get 1v1 coverage and that will be dangerous and GT will capitalize. Not only is Reggie ball a threat to keep it and make big plays but Tashard Choice is starting to emerge as a solid run threat. All in all GT has far too many weapons for UVA's defense and the offensive struggles will only be exploited by the GT defense. Olsen and McCabe have not played well and I think they will have another tough night. I would like to see Ball complete a higher percentage of his passes but I think the receivers will be open enough that he makes the throws on time. Big worry is VT next week but I think playing at home and on national TV has the crowd fired up and in turn the players fired up. 17 is a lot of chalk but I just don't see UVA scoring above 14 and GT should have a lot of success. Need Coach Galley (sp) to get his boys up for this and if they come to play there is no way UVA can play with them. GT can only be beaten by GT tonight.

Cheers
Irish
 
T

tofeco23

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Irish,

I always like your write-ups. You mentioned that you don't see Virginia scoring more than 14 - then to cover gTech would need 32 - would you consider the over a good play as well.

Thank,
 
Irish

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tefeco

Honestly, I think UVA does score more than 14, but they might not score at all or only score IMO about 10 or Seven. I think that number is just about right on and GT could score 35 or above on UVA if they play well. I am passing on the Over/Under just because I think UVA is bad but if I had to play, I would think under because GT should score in the 30 area and I don't see UVA putting up a decent number. Saying that, GT could put on an offensive show and get very sloppy. But you also have to think if they do get ahead by a big number chances are some starters will come out cause VT is on the door step. In conclusion I like the under if I had to play.

Cheers
Irish
 
Irish

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WVU (-21) over ECU
Scary chalk for the road team looking past the pirates. ECU has slowed down the WVU rushing offense. West Virginia has overwhelmed its first three opponents this season on the ground, averaging a nation-best 349 yards per game.The Pirates held West Virginia to 127 yards rushing in a 20-15 loss last September, the Mountaineers' lowest rushing total in the last 35 games. West Virginia runs the ball 77 % of the time. White's completed 74 % of his passes (20-of-27), but is averaging only 86.3 yards passing in the first 3 games. The Pirates returned two fourth-quarter interceptions for touchdowns to break through for a victory after losing their first two games by 10 points combined.. ECU will be in trouble because Pat White has developed into a decent passer and ECU will not be able to stack the box. If the pirates do attempt to shut down the run expect WVU to air it out a bit and be effective. The WVU defense will have to play better then they have but I think they can limit the ECU offense. the WVU offense is extremely fast and the team speed should be a problem in this game. I am not too happy about the amount of chalk but considering ECU has played WVU tough I think they should be focused for this contest. Again this outcome depends on WVU they have the ability to run right past ECU but will they be in the right mind frame. IMO they will be sharp enough to get on top of ECU and not look back. The WVU defense will have to get Pinkney to throw and they should be able to force a few turnovers. ECU will turn to Johnson to rush the ball and the o-line of ECU will have a tough time with the WVU rush defense. IMO there is just too much talent on WVU to make the mistakes to keep ECU in this game. Coach Rod should have his boys ready to roll, I expect Myles and Renyaud to have very big games. The WVU offense can cover this number and IMO they are for real offensively on defense I am not sold but they should score about 2 to 3 to 1 in this contest.

Cheers
Irish
 
Irish

Irish

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Nevada (-7) over N'Western
The N'Western defense is not good enough to contecd with Nebada. Nevada has NOT been playing bad teams, they have gone to Fresno and ASU. Nevada has a decent RB Hubbard and a QB that can pull it down and scramble. Rowe can pass and run but he needs to regroup and return to last years form. He isn't playing badly but not up to what he was doing last season. Still at home he is a much better player and that makes Nevada a much better team. Caleb Spencer and Mitchell are the featured recievers in this offense but because they have big play ability the lost man is McCoy and he should be open against a poor N'Western secondary. N'Western has played 3 BAD teams in my opinion and they are not ready for this game. Kafka is not playing up to what was predicted and he is making very bad decisions in his games and Nevada can force him into turnovers. The key for Nevada is to bring the house, chances are the offense will revolve around running. It will be Sutton or Kafka scrambling but if Nebada brings the house they should meet whomever in the gackfield. Understand reports out of N'Western have Kafka starting even though he struggled against E. Mich. Nevada's defense should be chewing at the bit to get a young QB down on his luck, second quessing his throws and not in command of his offense. Northwestern is the first Big 10 team to play in Reno, This game is on National TV and Nevada will be locked and loaded to get on this team. New hampshire threw all over this team and I expect Nevada in the pistol to do the same. I just don't think N'Western has the confidence to go into Nevada and give them a game.

Cheers
Irish
 
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