Week 7 MonkeyPlays

[MonkeyPants]

Season Stats: 17-19-3 (-2.35 units)

OK, last week, I got killed (2-6) and lost everything I worked for all season. It was a combination of bad luck and bad plays. Let's hope this week will be better.

1. OREGON (-10-1/2) over Ucla (4 units)

Anyone who has been paying attention to my plays can see I do not wager 4 units on one play every day. Extremely rare, but this one has called for a huge wager.

I don't think UCLA stands a chance in here. I can't see the Bruins keeping up with an up-tempo Ducks team on the road in one of the most hostile environments in the nation with an inexperienced QB starting and a less than stellar offense.

Oregon just doesn't lose at home and we all know that. I don't trust UCLA on the road especially with Patrick Cowan in there. The Bruins' defense might be improved but not to the extent that they can go on the road and stop an overpowering Oregon Duck offense. Expect a heavy dose of Stewart on the ground and Williams in the air. UCLA is very overrated IMO and has done nothing to really impress my yet. Expect the Bruins to have bad field position throughout the entire game. UCLA ranks 117th out of 119 teams averaging 15 yards per kick return. UCLA cannot keep up with Oregon's 6th-ranked scoring offense (40 ppg). Ducks are 8th in rushing (227 ypg), 18th in passing (259 ypg) and 4th in total offense. Only 3 teams are better than the Ducks on third down (58%). UO has scored on 21 of 23 trips inside the red zone.

This will be my largest wager so far this year. I haven't loved a game this much in a long time....Good Luck with your plays as well.

 

[MonkeyPants]

2. Iowa State (+19-1/2) over OKLAHOMA (2 units)

I hate playing on OU after they play Texas. OU got beat in a game they expected to win. And it pretty much destroyed their chances of winning the Big 12 South and any kind of BCS game. I think OU will be a little down for this game. The Sooners are simply having too many secondary problems for me to feel comfortable against a good ISU passing attack. I just don't like the general atmosphere or feeling surrounding the team or game enough to recommend OU in this spot.

3. KANSAS (-3-1/2) over Oklahoma State (2 units)

OSU is still a team in the learning process of how to play a 60 minute game on the road. They lost a golden opportunity to go up 1-0 in conference play and completely blew it. And now they have to go on the road again against a more established team and coaching staff. I expect the Jayhawks offense to have a little more luck against OSU than they did against the quick A&M secondary who kept them in the red zone and out of the end zone. The Cowboys have failed to cover their last 8 Big 12 road games. It will probably continue here against a desperate Kansas squad who has dropped its first 2 conference games.

4. Missouri/TEXAS A&M (UNDER 51-1/2) (2 units)

A&M is starting to get more confident in its passing game. In all they racked up almost 400 total yards on the road against Kansas while giving up only 288. I really get the feeling that both defenses are going to step up here. I really don't expect the Tigers to come in and move the ball up and down the field on the Aggies. A&M has already seen the spread offense once with Tech. I think they'll be a little more stingy here and not give up the big play like they did with Tech. This should be a tight low to middle scoring game. Something like 24-21...so I'm taking the under.

5. COLORADO (+7) over Texas Tech (2 units)

Five turnovers killed Texas Tech last week. In fact, 28 of Mizzou's points were directly from Tech's TO's. Colorado, on the other hand, has been playing competitive football every week for the last 3 weeks. They've also played a little stronger schedule than TT. I expect another close game. And I'm taking the little better defensive team getting points at home.

6. TEXAS (-29) over Baylor (2 units)

Baylor's second road game in a row. It was a nice win against Colorado last week. But, probably a draining one with 3 overtimes to get it done. Baylor isn't a very deep team anyway. And having to go up against 2 very superior Texas lines isn't going to help. The Texas defense again gets it done in a 42-10 type of game.

7. Nebraska (-10-1/2) over KANSAS STATE (3 units)

Nebraska hasn't won in Manhattan in 10 years. But that has been during the Snyder heyday. KSU is now learning a new system under a new head coach and new QB. They were very fortunate last week with their special teams supplying over 200 return yards on OSU and accounting for 14 points. Don't expect that to happen against the much superior special teams of Nebraska. The best against the worst in the Big 12 North.

BOL this week :toast:

 

[tulah]

P.Cowen looked really good Vs UA , but it seemed like he ran the same play over &over again. PA then short dump off pass.
IMO UCLA Def. can hang with anyone .They are much improved. The DLine & the secondary have played great the last 2wks . They've allowed only10PTS in those 2 games .I've been to the last 2 games @ the RoseBowl. Be careful with this one
IMO UCLA Def. will keep it close.


GL

 

[MonkeyPants]

Let's look at who UCLA has faced so far this season:

UTAH, RICE, at Washington, STANFORD, ARIZONA.

None of these teams are as explosive as the Ducks. But you are right, UCLA's defensive strengths do matchup well to that of Oregon's. Thanks for your thoughts, always appreciated.

 

[MonkeyPants]

Adding a 1/2 dozen 1-unit plays.

8. WEST VIRGINIA (-25) over Syracuse (1 unit)

9. Florida State (-23) over DUKE (1 unit)

10. MICHIGAN STATE (+14-1/2) over Ohio State (1 unit)

11. Ohio (+6) over ILLINOIS (1 unit)

12. LSU (-26-1/2) over Kentucky (1 unit)

13. NEW MEXICO STATE (+25-1/2) over Boise State (1 unit) [Sunday].

Laying a good amount of bankroll out there....It will either be the worst weekend in the history of my betting, or dancing in the streets butt ass naked.

 

[MonkeyPants]

Finally, a pair of 2-unit games for Saturday.

14. WASHINGTON (-9-1/2) over Oregon State (2 units)

15. PENN STATE (+6) over Michigan (2 units)

gl