nfl plays from 10/15-10/16.....

A

AR182

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nflx....................8-8.....+5.80*
regular season....17-11...+46.82*


4*under 37(125) jets/miami.....

usually when a team throws a lot of picks in one game, they tend to run the ball the next game. i think with the jets throwing 3 ints last week & the qb problems of miami, we will see a lot of running in this game. in addition the jets are ranked #4 in the league(behind balt.,s.d.,& jax) in pass defense allowing only 54.4% completions this season. that's very good considering that among the teams that they played were indy & n.e.

here's a system that supports this play.....

since 1989 the nfl is 0-13 o/u when they are a home favorite by a fg or less 7 they are off a 3+ point loss that dropped them to one game below .500 for the season in which they rushed the ball at least 25 times.


good luck.
 
M

MrChristo

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Good stuff as always, ar. :thumb:

But, does the fact that the Jets won't be able to run on this Miami D worry you at all?

Will they be happy to be in 2nd/3rd and long and run up a heap of 3 and outs? :shrug:

If only Herm was still at the reigns, it would be so much easier! :D
 
T

Taximike

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since 1989 the nfl is 0-13 o/u when they are a home favorite by a fg or less 7 they are off a 3+ point loss that dropped them to one game below .500 for the season in which they rushed the ball at least 25 times.
Click to expand...

.......and the head coach has at least 2 different vowels in his last name and the opposing qb has a johnson no longer than 6 1/2 inches and........
 
A

AR182

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mike...

i know that some people don't believe in systems & trends...& that's fine.

but there are some who find it useful. & i post that stuff for them.
 
Z

zack2345

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mike why r u even speaking...Ar always has good picks so just let him do his thing
ur the type of dude that makes good cappers not even wanna post anymore...everybody wondering where fletch and worm are :shrug:
until you start posting some winners, just sit back, relax, and wait for your buckeyes to get upset by michigan
 
T

Taximike

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AR i was just trying to add humor not rip anyone. Your record speaks for itself. I actually am gonna bet the play because of your expert analysis, and i thank you for your hard work. But I think you would have to admit that if anyone were to look at that particular trend (which seems rather random and useless) and bet the game because of it, would be foolish. I DO think that some trends can be quite useful; i guess that one just struck me funny.


Pete Axthelm(?) used to give out trends like that on espn game day (back when it was worth watching) and the fellas made fun of it because of the ridiculous nature of some of em.



And zach wants worm back huh? :mj07: :142smilie
 
A

AR182

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mike...

it's all good...i definitely didn't take it as a rip. i also don't have a problem with anybody criticizing anything i post.

and btw...i agree that people shouldn't use systems & trends as the sole reason to make a pick. my main reason for this pick is based primarily on the first paragraph...& the system is just a reinforcer.

good luck.
 
Last edited:
Vicc Inzagio

Vicc Inzagio

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soy de Monterrey cabrones !!
AR182 said:
mike...

it's all good...i definitely didn't take it as a rip. i also don't have a problem with anybody criticizing anything i post.

and btw...i agree that people shouldn't use systems & trends as the sole reason to make a pick. my main reason for this pick is based primarily on the first paragraph...& the system is just a reinforcer.

good luck.
Click to expand...


i?m the kind of person that think all stuff can help to make good decisions to play or stay away from some games, good info is always welcome & you always provide?.


vicc
 
A

AR182

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thanks guys...appreciate all of the posts.


4*under 43 giants/atl....

i grabbed this play when the lines first came out. but forgot to post it because i was involved with the college plays most of the week.

atl. has scored a td on 3 of 17 trips into the red zone this year & this is the worst in the league. their defense has been very good this year...the only time a team scored more than 10 points against them was in that monday night loss to the saints, where one of the tds scored was on a blocked punt into the end zone.

as far as the giants are concerned, i see them more as the team that beat wash. last week than that of the team that allowed 26,24,& 42 points in the games before their bye week. in those games the giants fell behind their opponent & were forced to throw the ball. i don't believe that's the way the giants want to play football. the giants coach is a very conservative person, & i think that's the way he prefers his teams to play....run the ball & control the time of possession.

i see the score of this game ending in the 36-38 point range.

good luck.
 
D

dangerously

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Good reasoning on both unders AR! Iam considering both myself and you strengthened my opinions.:toast:

gl.
 
A

AR182

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thanks dangerously....appreciate it.


adding....


rams+3.5(120)...

like the way the rams are playing.....good running attack & playing defense well.


buffalo-1...

it looks like detroit will be missing 3 starters on the offensive line for this game against a very active buffalo defense...plus their top receiver got hurt in last week's game (don't know if he's playing). in addition detroit brought kitna in as their qb to give some stability to their offense, but after throwing 5 ints in the last 2 games, i wonder how much confidence they have in him. also buffalo has alternated wins & losses this year...so after losing last week, they should win this week....just kidding.


under 45 (130) houston/dallas....

i wanted to wait until kickoff to place this wager because it seems like everybody likes the over in this game (but have to go out shortly).

i have followed parcell's coaching career for over 20 years since he was an asst. coach with the giants, & last week's game must be eating him up inside. not so much because they lost to phil, but because of the turnovers that dallas committed.that's not parcell's football....he likes to rush the ball (3rd best rushing attack in the nfl) & play good defense...& i think that's what we'll see today.


good luck.
 
Irish

Irish

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Good luck today AR
Like the bills as well.... nice hit on UVA yesterday, Man the terps play makes me want to club baby seals.

Cheers
Irish
 
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