Cappin College Football/Akron @ Ohio

[honkerhunter]

Hey guys, awesome form here. I have learned a lot about betting over the last year or so just tailing people. Just curious how exactly some of you cap a football game. I logged on to both Akron and Ohio's home football pages to do a little research. Would something like Ohio starting their final exams tomorrow be a reason to go against them? Solich said he is hoping it doesn't affect them very much. Also, Akron brings in the 27th ranked passing game in the nation. I think they are a good play getting 5 points. Thanks to all who reply.

 

[wufdude]

If it's anything like the last two games in the MAC, Akron will win in a miserable game. I'll probably take them and the under for small bets.

 

[Dr. Fade]

Who starts finals on a Friday and who starts finals in mid-Nov??

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

I logged on to both Akron and Ohio's home football pages to do a little research. Would something like Ohio starting their final exams tomorrow be a reason to go against them?

Okay, let's start with some questions:

1. What do you think the line should be? If you can't answer this question, stop here and don't bet the game.

2. What IS the line?

3. Why is there a disparity (if there is one)? Could be information advantage (ie, knowing about exams) or it could be that one of the teams is in a bad spot (who do they play next, what happened last week, etc.).

4. What does the line say? In other words, what do you think the line is asking for. I use a method that is based in psychology. A spread of 6.5 is a line in which the book is positioning you to think about betting the favorite with a mentality of "They only have to beat them by a TD". Same goes for 2.5 and 2 pt spreads. The reverse argument can be made for 7.5 and 3.5 spreads, being that the dog can lose by a TD or FG and still win the bet.

I run through this little excercise for almost all of my bets. Sometimes I do it without thinking (see Dallas/Indy game this weekend). If I find the line to be tight, I pass. I'm not going to pay juice to flip coins on good lines. I either feel like I am on the right side or I pass.

PS: You can use stats/rankings to figure out what the line SHOULD be, but if you are going to make an argument for betting on a team based on stats, get in line with the rest of the suckers.