Wednesday June 27th

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Wednesday June 27th 2007

yesterday: 4-7 -9.41
June: 156-145 -0.58
ml 78-58 +1.14
rl 10-13 -9.06
totals 55-35 +24.75
parlays 13-39 -17.41
system totals 3-0 yesterday; now 69-36 in June (at least something is working)

system sides

team win% (line)value indicator

Mil 63% (-154)+2
Cubs 73 (-172)+9 RL 59 (+110)+11
Sf 53 (-115)-1
Fla 63 (-170)even
Phil 57 (-138)-1
Mets 70 (Glavine-Reyes)
Atl 65 (-218)-4
Ariz 55 (-125)-1
Det 56 (-200)-11 tex 44 (+185)+8
Laa 70 (-232)even RL 56 (-109)+3
bost 67 (-178)+2 RL 53 (-115)-1
Balt 52 (+118)+6
Clev 68 (-166)+5 RL 54 (+125)+9
cws 55 (-115)+1
Min 60 (-135)+2

system totals

hou@Mil ov9.5 67% (-108)+15 --Diaz is more of an under-ump; pass here
sd@Sf un8 70 (-110)+17 --ump Marquez is even
pitt@Fla un9 72 (+110)+24 --Gibson more of an over-ump; pass here
wash@Atl un8 79 (-110)+26 --McClelland is an over-ump, for crying out loud
nyy@Balt un8.5 70 (-103)+19 --Tschida's a slight under-ump
tor@Min ov9.5 70 (+100)+20 --Runge historically a bit of an under-ump, but is 10-5 OVERS this season with a lower K% than he usually has


Yesterday was another demonstration that I should be pounding totals this month and taking it easy on sides. System sides went a deplorable 5-10 on Tuesday, even missing a pair of 70's calls (Marlins & Mets). I could really use a break or two on Wednesday 'cause I sure didn't get any on Tuesday.

For Wednesday, I like the Cubs, the Bosox, and the Indians. Bosox should have little trouble tomorrow, though I thought that about the Marlins and Mets yesterday. Indians also seem like a solid play. Three 70's on the board but Angels are too pricey, and De La Rosa has had one good game vs the Angels already this season...'course, he's stunk pretty bad lately. Mets number will be near -200, if it ever opens, and I don't know if I can try that even on a parlay. Cubs have an extremely hot Zambrano going against a rather cold Rockies' Hirsh. Cubs got game these days, it seems.

I may try a couple of totals, I just don't know which ones yet.

Play at your own risk...always.
GL

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

White Sox look like a possibility.
Taken the first 2...might take the 3rd with Buehrle.
Over/under on Sonnanstine HR's surrendured is 2.5

My only concern here is D'Rays potency vs lefties (OPS near .830ish).
On paper, D'Rays have a big edge with the sticks.
...on paper...

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

umpire alert at Chase Field

umpire alert at Chase Field

system call is 63% UNDER the 7.5 in Arizona.
(not listed as a system total as it's less than 65%)

I recently discovered that Doug Eddings will be behind the plate for this one.
He's almost as good as Hirschbeck for unders.

The following numbers are a glorious example of an under-ump.

year.....O-U.......K%
2004...10-24....64.75
2005...11-21....66.03
2006...14-20....65.07
2007....7-9......65.78

That K% is especially crucial; anything over 63% is a pretty big strike zone, and, as you can see, Eddings surpasses that year in and year out.

I almost didn't look at it, as it wasn't quite a "system total."
Just doing some updates and caught the 1B ump at 'Zona.
System says to avoid total plays if inappropriate umpires are going, or at least to give a penalty, so the system will surely want to give a bonus for Eddings in this scenario.
Hard to say what kind of bonus to give the total, with Eddings working.
I think that 8-10% is reasonable...conservative, if anything.
Call it 9%.
Makes it a 72% call on the under.
72% (-115)+18 value indicator

I've said before that the percents I get for totals might be somewhat inflated; that's why it's a "system total" only at 65% or more.

Still, can't argue with this month's total calls.
69-36 is 65.7% winners.

Can't win 'em all but I gotta try this one.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

like this total a little less...

sd@Sf un8 -110

5 of Maddux's last 10 starts have totalled 8 or less
7 of Cain's last 10 starts have totalled 8 or less; he's really getting crummy run support

Maddux is 27-14 career vs SF with a neat 2.90 era.
On April 11th he threw 6 innings of 6-hit shutout ball vs the Giants at Petco

Cain is 3-1 career vs Padres with a 1.96 era (Padres hitting .135 off him)
His first start of '07 was at Petco vs the Padres, yielding 5 hits and 3 er over 6 IP (only walked 1 and K'ed 6; gave up 2 HR's to the Padres that day, but has only given up 4 over his last 90 IP)
Opponent's hitting .225 off of Cain this season.
He has a 1.20 era for his 4 day starts, opponent's hitting .155
Last year, as well, his era was more than a run better in day games (3.61, BAA .196) than night games (4.69, BAA .245)

Padres OPS vs R only .692
Giants OPS vs R only .700

Not sure if Bonds will start or not; often doesn't in day games following night games.

System call is 70% on the under.
Ump shouldn't be a factor; Marquez is 23-23 on totals the past year and a half; he was 21-11 UNDERS in 2005, but his K% is about average every year (62.x'ish %).
Giving it a try.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

New car, caviar, four-star daydream. Think I'll buy me a football team.

PLAYS

system picks

Cubs -172 3.44/2
Indians -166 1.66/1

other picks

bosox -178 3.56/2
chisox -112 1.68/1.5

totals

sd@Sf un8 -110 1.1/1
lad@Ariz un7.5 -115 1.72/1.5
nyy@Balt un8.5 -103 1.03/1

6-teamer (best home bets?2 63's,a 73, a 70, a 68, and a 65)
--Brewers ml
--Cubs ml
--Marlins ml
--Braves ml
--Angels ml
--Indians ml
+1286
0.5/6.43

2-teamer (afternoon homers)
--Brewers ml
--Tigers ml
+154
0.64/1

2-teamer (for a piece of Fish)
--Marlins ml
--Angels -1.5
+200
0.5/1

2-teamer (couple of 70's?HELP!!!)
--Cubs ml
--Angels ml
+127
0.94/1.2

2-teamer (best AL bets)
--bosox ml
--Indians ml
+150
0.8/1.2

2-teamer (personal favorites)
--Cubs ml
--bosox ml
+147
1.02/1.5


I'm probably not making the smartest choices today, playing all these parlays and such. Even with yesterday's poor showing, system sides are still working on a 10-day total of 82-50 (62.1% winners). Bumps in the road are going to happen and it's not like it's the first time this season I've been smoked like that. Trick is to bounce back. I'm hoping to hit enough of the system calls to bag a few of these parlays; hopefully the Cubs and Bosox don't dissappoint me today as hitting those 2 likely sides should give me a good shot at a plus today. Chit?even picking up a half-a-unit would put me on the plus side for June. Hopefully these totals will help; seems to be my only strength this month.

I haven't really looked at Thursday yet. Marlins get another crack at a lefty in the Pirates Duke (vs Olsen), and I'm expecting that the Marlins will be a system pick if the line is -130 to -140 (who's kidding who?). Might try the Dodgers against a struggling Hernandez in the closer at Chase Field (Wolf, I think). Cards-Mets game sounds like an under (Wainwright-Hernandez). Oswalt at home to the Rockies (Cook); he hasn't had a really good game for a few, now. The red-hot Blanton is taking on the Indians Byrd tomorrow; I'll try the A's there for +100 to -120. Tigers line will be -250ish with Verlander tossing against the Rangers Wright; Rangers doing best work vs lefties and might have a hard time here; Tigers number not 'capped, but I'd be surprised if it's not at least 70%. Runline, maybe. Jays Burnett coming back to face Twins Silva; this one sounds like a coin-toss; Silva has been pretty solid, but good hitting clubs can get to him; I don't know if you'd call the Jays a "good-hitting" club right now or not?maybe against lefties but righties are a major problem this year (Jays .822 OPS vs L, only .744 vs R?they were .804 vs R last season). Wang vs Cabrera will have Yankees favoured, both as a line and as a system side, but I'm not expecting any value; Cabrera was solid in his last and Yankees don't have the mojo right now. D'Rays may finally salvage a game in their series with the Chisox (I like Chicago today), but Kazmir will likely command a fair bit of juice Vazquez coming off a nice start, too, so there's no gaurantee on the Rays; D'Rays hitting lefties (OPS .843) much better than righties (OPS .747) this season. D'Rays may see a 60% when I post tomorrow, but we should expect a -140 to -150 line, meaning there won't be any value there either.

Talking 'bout the future.
Forget about the past.

GL

 

[DoMyDermBest]

Thanks for the hard work on these posts.

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

I want to be up for the Cubs game at 2:30...don't know if I should try to get some sleep or just stay up. I dunno...I've got fairly heavy action going at 2:30, 4:30, 7, and 9:40...I don't know if I can handle 10 straight hours of baseball...certainly not if I have a repeat of Tuesday. Need some breaks today.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
return on investment breakdown for system picks
--------------------------------------------------------------------
(Cubs,Indians)
---------------------------------------------------------------------

Cubs 73% (-172)+9 value indicator

argument for game:
--slight edge to Cubs sticks here (Cubs OPS vs R .761 to Rockies OPS vs R .756), but Cubs whole lineup producing currently, and Rockies only .710 OPS on the road (Cubs .750 at home, up from May's ending of .733 at home)
--major edge to Cubs starter (Zambrano over Hirsh)
--you may have noticed Carlos is only 1-4 in 7 starts vs the Rockies; keep in mind that that includes a 3.14 era vs them, Rockies batting .200 off Carlos with NO HR's over 48.2 IP
--Carlos on fire; has surrendured only 13 base hits over his past 31.2 IP (4 games) with an era of 1.15 over that time; he's 3-1 over the 4 games, losing only a 1-0 decision to the Padres and Chris Young
--you may not like the guy, but I think you'll be liking him today if you've got coin on him
--Hirsh threw a nice game against the Orioles on June 10th--when the O's were in the midst of a real slump--but for his 4 other most recent starts he has an era of 9.31; that includes giving up 5 earned runs in each of his past 2 starts, not making through the 5th in either one (vs the D'Rays then at the Jays...I've mentioned earlier that both of those clubs are NOT hitting righties very well...I guess Hirsh made an exception
--Cubs rolling...have won 5 straight
--Rockies hurtin'...have lost 5 straight

-172 is 58.1 cents on the dollar
73 x 0.581 = 42.413
27 x -1......= -27
-----------------------------------
.....................15.413%

Not too bad for a 73% opportunity.
(if I'm not out to lunch)

I need this one. Not a fortune riding on it but I've got to get back on track after yesterday's disaster and this is the heaviest call, at 73%.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Indians 68% (-166)+5 value indicator; just barely a system pick (+5 at 65+)

argument for game:
--Indians OPS vs L .791
--A's OPS vs R .720 and they've scored the second fewest runs in all of MLB vs righties (only ahead of Nationals)
--Carmona coming in rated several points higher than DiNardo as Lenny has cooled off his past 2 starts, taking the L vs the Cards and then the Mets, raising his era by more than a point in the process (from 1.22 to a still (very) respectable 2.35, but his era for those last 2 games was 7.00)
--Carmona's 1-0 in 2 starts and 1 in relief vs A's, era 3.00
--A's are 18-19 on the road and have lost 5 straight; they're only 9-12 against the Central Division
--Indians are a stellar 26-11 at home (.703) and have won 2 straight; they've won 5 of their past 6 at home; they're 9-6 against West Division opponent's

-166 is 60.2 cents on the dollar
68 x 0.602 = 40.936
32 x -1......= -32
----------------------------------
...................8.936%

Not as attractive.
Cubs with the higher probability AND better ROI.
Could use this one but a loss here wouldn't sting as much as at Wrigley.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
JUST FOR A LAUGH
my other big play is the Bosox...I'm expecting a joke of an ROI there...

Bosox 67% (-178)+2 value indicator; really +2.97 but I always round down

argument for game:
--Bosox .828 OPS vs L
--M's .755 OPS vs R
--Monster Edge to Bosox starter; smallish edge to Bosox bullpen
--Matsuzaka is currently pitching brilliantly, lowering his era during each of his past 4 starts (era over his past 4 starts is 1.73); Bosox are 9-3 over his past 12 starts; he's 3-1 in 4 daytime starts with an era of 1.93
--Feierabend's 8.20 era is encouraging...if your a Sox player; opponent's batting .311 off him this season and he's given up 5 HR's over only 18.2 IP; his era in 2 home starts is 11.70 and he's given up 4 HR's over 10 IP at Safeco

-178 is 56.2 cents on the dollar
67 x 0.562 = 37.654
33 x -1......= -33
---------------------------------
....................4.654%

As I figured...pretty pitiful.
I guess I just have a little more confidence in this 67% call than, say, in the 68% call for the Indians.
Like the Cubs, this is one that my ego needs, not to mention my account balance.

Maybe there's a better return for my Cubs-Bosox parlay.

Cubs 73%
Bosox 67%
----------------------
ugh...a 49% chance to hit it.

49% (+147)+8 value indicator (I'm sure to get a good ROI here)

49 x 1.47 = 72.03
51 x -1.....= -51
----------------------------
..................21.03%

Now we're talkin'.
If I hit this parlay, maybe a 2-1 on totals, and grab an Indians OR Chisox win then I should be in better shape entering Thursday's action.

May we all become richer.

:SIB

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Thanks, DoMyDermBest,

I guess I do my d...nevermind...

GL today

:SIB