Saturday July 28th 2007
July: 130-119 +14.85
ml 71-53 +8.57
rl 9-5 +7.31
totals 28-32 -6.36
parlays 22-29 +5.33
system picks 34-21 in July (62%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 41-40 in July?finally over .500
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
(1)Mets 67% (-196)even RL 52 (+116)+5
(2)Mets 55 (-165)-8 wash 45 (+157)+6
(1)mil 54 (+115)+7
(2)mil 63 (-112)+10
atl 60 (-132)+3
Hou 56 (-140)-3
Phil 65 (-146)+5 RL 51 (+136)+8
Cin 55 (-116)+1
Col 59 (Francis-Billingsley)
Col 63 (Francis-Tomko)
Sf 55 (-118)even
Laa 51 (-120)-4
oak 53 (+111)+5
nyy 65 (-171)+1 RL 52 (-109)-1
tor 61 (-125)+5
min 59 (-140)even
Tb 55 (+107)+6
tex 63 (-108)+11 RL 50 (+146)+9
system totals
(1)wash@Mets un8.5 72% (-110)+19 --ump Hallion is even
fla@Sf ov8.5 66 (-125)+10 --ump Kellogg is a slight OVER-ump
min@Clev ov8.5 67 (-120)+12 --Diaz an under-ump past year and a half; pass here
bost@Tb ov10 65 (+111)+17 --ump Wegner is a decent OVER-ump
I can't tell you how much those comments in my Friday post meant to me. Thanks a lot to thisisbad, Riskbreaker, Dr. Whitetail and husky. I have invested a ton of time into these posts since the start of the season, not to mention the amount of time I spend handicapping the games, so it was great to get some support after my crucifiction on Thursday. Truth of the matter was that is really wasn't so bad?I actually lost LESS than I had won the day previous, and only about a third of what I had made the previous 3 days. Still, I let the bad day really affect me; I keep telling myself to "take it like a man" when I'm losing a game, but Thursday I really took it like a small child. Taking a day off was the best thing I could have done?well?maybe not?system sides actually went 11-3 yesterday. I'll take it as a GOOD sign. Hoping to survive the full season, here, so thanks again for the words.
A full 17 games today. Lots of opportunity to get into trouble but I think I'm keeping my risks to under 4 units a game to close out the month. Nothing on this board is a must-have for me (maybe Rangers). Brewers with a shot in both games as the Cards are pathetic against lefties this season (OPS .704) I'm rating Parra about average for this first start, which is similar to my current rating for Thomspon; Brewers have the edge at the plate in both matchups. I might take a shot with Parra but the second game looks tastier as Capuano seems to be in good rhythm lately and the Cards Reyes is about as bad as it gets for an SP. That second game is a system pick at current lines; even if it reaches -125 it's still a system pick. Phillies might manhandle Pitt again as Durbin has been great over his past 2 starts; I think I want a piece of that one. Rangers I'll be all over, as Millwood vs Perez is a mismatch and Rangers do better work vs lefties than righties, too (yesterday's game was no surprise as Bannister has been quite sharp lately). I'm trying to be careful 'capping Jays games, as they're my team, but I think that the call today is justified as Halladay, the past few, has been better than Buehrle and the Jays should have a clear edge at the plate (Jays OPS vs L a whopping .852, second only to the Tigers .869, while the Chisox OPS vs R is .708; it might seem like the Chisox have really turned things around at the plate the past while, but the past 7 days still has the Jays ahead at OPS .800 to the Chisox .758). If this game is decided by the bullpens then the Jays have a solid edge there. A few other sides show a bit of value, but nothing looks great; D'Rays seem to burn me anytime I lay coin on them.
Three totals survived umpire eliminations, but nothing looks great. Mets O is in too much of a zone right now, despite yesterday's poor showing, and Redding might be due to get lit up some. Both Willis and Cain are much better than they've been doing lately, and a solid game from either one likely kills an over there. Bosox-Rays might be the best-looking of them as D'Rays do their best work vs lefties (OPS .810) while the Sox are no slouches at the plate (OPS vs R .793 and tied for 3rd in MLB for runs scored off of righties); both teams have been hot the past week, too, with a 7-day OPS of .836 for the Bosox and .812 for the D'Rays. Lester had a solid game last time out but I think that will be difficult to repeat here; more of a concern for the over would be the possibility of Shields having a good game but he's been mediocre for about 4 starts now and the Bosox have beaten on him before (0-1, era 6.10 in 2 starts; both from last season, both at Tropicana Field).
Going to do my darndest to be careful over the next four days in order to (hopefully) clear 10 units for July. 20 would be better. You never know.
Will post plays eventually.
GL
July: 130-119 +14.85
ml 71-53 +8.57
rl 9-5 +7.31
totals 28-32 -6.36
parlays 22-29 +5.33
system picks 34-21 in July (62%) (value indicator any+10, +7at60+, +5at65+)
system totals 41-40 in July?finally over .500
system sides
team win% (line)value indicator
(1)Mets 67% (-196)even RL 52 (+116)+5
(2)Mets 55 (-165)-8 wash 45 (+157)+6
(1)mil 54 (+115)+7
(2)mil 63 (-112)+10
atl 60 (-132)+3
Hou 56 (-140)-3
Phil 65 (-146)+5 RL 51 (+136)+8
Cin 55 (-116)+1
Col 59 (Francis-Billingsley)
Col 63 (Francis-Tomko)
Sf 55 (-118)even
Laa 51 (-120)-4
oak 53 (+111)+5
nyy 65 (-171)+1 RL 52 (-109)-1
tor 61 (-125)+5
min 59 (-140)even
Tb 55 (+107)+6
tex 63 (-108)+11 RL 50 (+146)+9
system totals
(1)wash@Mets un8.5 72% (-110)+19 --ump Hallion is even
fla@Sf ov8.5 66 (-125)+10 --ump Kellogg is a slight OVER-ump
min@Clev ov8.5 67 (-120)+12 --Diaz an under-ump past year and a half; pass here
bost@Tb ov10 65 (+111)+17 --ump Wegner is a decent OVER-ump
I can't tell you how much those comments in my Friday post meant to me. Thanks a lot to thisisbad, Riskbreaker, Dr. Whitetail and husky. I have invested a ton of time into these posts since the start of the season, not to mention the amount of time I spend handicapping the games, so it was great to get some support after my crucifiction on Thursday. Truth of the matter was that is really wasn't so bad?I actually lost LESS than I had won the day previous, and only about a third of what I had made the previous 3 days. Still, I let the bad day really affect me; I keep telling myself to "take it like a man" when I'm losing a game, but Thursday I really took it like a small child. Taking a day off was the best thing I could have done?well?maybe not?system sides actually went 11-3 yesterday. I'll take it as a GOOD sign. Hoping to survive the full season, here, so thanks again for the words.
A full 17 games today. Lots of opportunity to get into trouble but I think I'm keeping my risks to under 4 units a game to close out the month. Nothing on this board is a must-have for me (maybe Rangers). Brewers with a shot in both games as the Cards are pathetic against lefties this season (OPS .704) I'm rating Parra about average for this first start, which is similar to my current rating for Thomspon; Brewers have the edge at the plate in both matchups. I might take a shot with Parra but the second game looks tastier as Capuano seems to be in good rhythm lately and the Cards Reyes is about as bad as it gets for an SP. That second game is a system pick at current lines; even if it reaches -125 it's still a system pick. Phillies might manhandle Pitt again as Durbin has been great over his past 2 starts; I think I want a piece of that one. Rangers I'll be all over, as Millwood vs Perez is a mismatch and Rangers do better work vs lefties than righties, too (yesterday's game was no surprise as Bannister has been quite sharp lately). I'm trying to be careful 'capping Jays games, as they're my team, but I think that the call today is justified as Halladay, the past few, has been better than Buehrle and the Jays should have a clear edge at the plate (Jays OPS vs L a whopping .852, second only to the Tigers .869, while the Chisox OPS vs R is .708; it might seem like the Chisox have really turned things around at the plate the past while, but the past 7 days still has the Jays ahead at OPS .800 to the Chisox .758). If this game is decided by the bullpens then the Jays have a solid edge there. A few other sides show a bit of value, but nothing looks great; D'Rays seem to burn me anytime I lay coin on them.
Three totals survived umpire eliminations, but nothing looks great. Mets O is in too much of a zone right now, despite yesterday's poor showing, and Redding might be due to get lit up some. Both Willis and Cain are much better than they've been doing lately, and a solid game from either one likely kills an over there. Bosox-Rays might be the best-looking of them as D'Rays do their best work vs lefties (OPS .810) while the Sox are no slouches at the plate (OPS vs R .793 and tied for 3rd in MLB for runs scored off of righties); both teams have been hot the past week, too, with a 7-day OPS of .836 for the Bosox and .812 for the D'Rays. Lester had a solid game last time out but I think that will be difficult to repeat here; more of a concern for the over would be the possibility of Shields having a good game but he's been mediocre for about 4 starts now and the Bosox have beaten on him before (0-1, era 6.10 in 2 starts; both from last season, both at Tropicana Field).
Going to do my darndest to be careful over the next four days in order to (hopefully) clear 10 units for July. 20 would be better. You never know.
Will post plays eventually.
GL
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