NYRA Showdown

[post1958]

Axle/Dan

Not sure if you're familiar with the Aqueduct showdown contest. Pick 1 horse each day. Has to show or better. Out of the money and you're out of the game.

Anyway - about 1900 played. 46 left and I'm one of them. 10 get paid. About $7600 for the last man standing, $287 for 10th. 11 to 1900 get $0.

Overheated (6th) on Thurs seems the obvious choice. A strategy could be to pick another race and hope Overheated runs out (also the small chance of a late scratch and the fave runs out) eliminating many of the 46 left. Another strategy could be to pick the obvious as the 46 left avoided 2 "can't miss horses" that ran out and eliminated over 50% of the field each time(Grand Emporer on presidents day and He's a Ray on Sat.) On Sun not a single player picked Silver Prospector with the questionable drop. Many may stay away from overheated using stategy #1. I don't really see another sure show on the card. Maybe Ommadon's Storm or Broad Acres?

Thoughts?

 

[danmurphy jr]

Sounds like fun.
Tough day - Claiming - Mdn Claimers - Starter - 1 Pure allownce. Overheated at 1/1 entered in a sprint will be hard to keep off the board, even with alot of unknowns.
Equally, for my taste, forward speed like 3rd #s 4 Pocatello 6/1 - 2 Pygmalion 2/1 forwardly placed in Sprints. Joseph Lostrito has found a good spot for 4th #7 Aunt Teree 8/1. I'm terrible at picking sure things. Axle may have a gem up his sleeve. GL

 

[Axle]

Overheated looks like a go to me.

 

[post1958]

I went with Overheated along with 25 others. Here are the picks of the 46 left.

Race No. Program No. Runner Count %
6 2 Overheated 26 57%
1 5 Half a Note 7 15%
5 1 Broad Acres 5 11%
3 2 Pygmalion 4 9%
1 7 Max's Bid 2 4%
8 2 Whistlin' 1 2%
4 2B Cyber Storm 1 2%

 

[post1958]

Update - still alive. Very fun contest for very little money - $10 - all of which is paid to the top 10. I highly recommend it. They'll probably do another one at the start of Belmont in April. Everybody's picks are available on the NYRA website (www.nyra.com) right before first post. If I can lucky over the next few weeks and win the $7600 it will cut my lifetime horsebetting losses down to $100,000. :SIB

After only losing 1 player each Fri and Sat, 24 went out today. Here were today's picks:

Race No. Program No. Runner Count %
4 4 Ambidaxtrous 19 49% - OUT
6 9 Serious Vow 6 15%
5 1 Indian War Dance 5 13% - OUT
7 5 Dantastic 3 8%
3 7 Brewtiful Girl 2 5%
8 1 Karakorum Starlet 1 3%
6 4 Fada Run 1 3%
2 5 Karakorum Playmate 1 3%
2 8 Freud Ian Girl 1 3%

Here are the standings - 15 left

Player Name Wins Place Show
inky1361 10 2 1
post1958 9 3 1
reedsdesert 8 4 1
PLAYBALL403 8 2 3
inky1370 7 5 1
spartacus14 7 4 2
kluelesskeith 7 4 2
GGROCK4 7 3 3
omaha 7 3 3
Just SHOW Baby - 1A 7 3 3
mr vig 6 4 3
Hold That Tiger 6 3 4
ROCKINABBE A 5 7 1
joepalooka 5 5 3
SLICK 5 4 4

 

[Pick 4 Guy]

Good Luck !!!!

Good Luck !!!!

Nice work.
I made it to the final 50 entries a couple of years ago.
What strategy do you use?
I had 3 entries and was knocked out early on this time around.
How many entries did you have?
Looks like inky has 2 entries, that gives him an edge.
Good Luck !!!

 

[post1958]

The first week I just picked off the online program. After the first week when many were knocked out, I buy the pp's the night before. I tried to stay away from short priced horses that have big questions - like Daaher on Sat at 2-5 coming off his 19 length loss, although he did manage 3rd in a 4 horse field. I've been lucky. My 3rd was by a nose over 4th in a 4 horse field. Sunday I was very close to picking the horse in the 4th that eliminated 19.

I just entered once. From the alpha listing Inky looks like he entered 28 times. Even so, 2 left in the final 15 is very good.

 

[post1958]

Here are today's picks. I was going to go with Ghost Dancing, but when the 7th scratched down to 4 horses I switched to Spurrier.

Race No. Program No. Runner Count %
8 1 Ghost Dancing 5 33%
7 7 Spurrier 2 13%
6 6 Pure Devil 2 13%
3 2B I Ain't No Saint 2 13%
3 3 Callmetony 2 13%
2 1 Runaway Star 1 7%
1 2 She Belongs to Us 1 7%

 

[Pick 4 Guy]

Just got home and put the races on. I didn't handicap the card but you probably made a good move using a 4 horse field. I don't know anything about Ghost Dancing.

1 minute to post

Good luck!

 

[Pick 4 Guy]

Way to go!

What was the deal with the 6?

Was he loaded and blocked or was something wrong?

Whatever, you advance.

 

[Pick 4 Guy]

3/6/08

3/6/08

Note: I do not have the scratches for today. And remember, I got knocked out early and you are still alive so go with your best thought.
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Looks like HOLD THAT PROSPECT is much the best in the 4th.

GOLDEN TABLET in the 1st is tempting but these claimers (20K) often take turns beating each other.

The 3rd race is a field of 6 but could be tricky.

HUGE PARTY looks good in the 7th but I never like horses going for 3 wins in a row.

I have no idea about the 8th race, too many variables.

Good Luck.

 

[post1958]

I thought this was the toughest day yet.

I'm considering Golden Tablet, Huge Party and Wildcat Warning in the 6th.

There's so much other pace in the 4th and the PP's I use show Hold that Prospect struggling to get the lead.

Very, very tough day to find a show horse - Lots of shippers, horses off layoffs, horses with inconsistent form. I'm hoping for a race with a bunch of scratches.

Thanks for your thoughts.

 

[post1958]

Here are the picks for the day. I'm out. I went Golden Tablet. I need 2 others to go out to finish in the money.

Race No. Program No. Runner Count %
4 3 Hold That Prospect 5 36%
1 1A Golden Tablet 3 21%
5 7 Bill Place 2 14%
8 4 Rite Moment 1 7%
7 6 Huge Party 1 7%
3 4 Doodlin 1 7%
3 3 Anlyn 1 7%

 

[Pick 4 Guy]

BUMMER !!!

BUMMER !!!

That sucks !!!

You must be sick getting so close. I remember when I was knocked out when I made it to the final 50 a couple of years ago. It was a HORRIBLE feeling. I was so depressed.

You did a great job lasting so long.

Belmont Showdown is not that far away.

Take care.

 

[Pick 4 Guy]

Chance To Get Healthy

Chance To Get Healthy

A little pick-4 action to get healthy.

AQU 6th -- 5 / 5,6,7 / 4 / 5,6

 

[post1958]

It is depressing. Not so much about the $$$, but it was a rush rooting for my pick and against eveyone elses.

Looks like 2 more did go out so I should slip into the 10th place money slot for $287.

Belmont showdown starts 4/30.