- Mar 19, 2006
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Andrew Skwara
Rivals.com College Basketball Staff Writer
Game of the Week: North Carolina at Duke
Ty Lawson vs. Greg Paulus
EDGE: North Carolina
Lawson isn't a lock to start, but he should play about 30 minutes. The 5-11 sophomore is working his way back from a sprained ankle, and he came off the bench to dish out five assists in North Carolina's 90-80 win at Boston College on Saturday. Lawson added 10 points in North Carolina's 90-77 triumph over Florida State on Tuesday. That's great news for the Tar Heels, who were without Lawson when Duke won 89-78 in the Smith Center on March 6. One of the fastest players in college basketball, Lawson will be able to take the much slower Paulus off the dribble and attack the basket. Paulus, a 6-1 junior, isn't playing as big a role on offense as last season, but he remains a major 3-point threat. Paulus is shooting 42.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Wayne Ellington vs. Gerald Henderson
EDGE: North Carolina
Neither Ellington nor Henderson needs a scouting report on one another. These former five-star recruits were high school teammates at Episcopal Academy in the Philadelphia suburbs. Both are 6-4 with similar frames and will be playing in the NBA. Ellington is the more polished of the two, a true shooting guard who relies heavily on his 3-point shot and a mid-range jumper. Henderson is more athletic and a good finisher around the hoop, but he's not nearly as good a shooter as Ellington.
Marcus Ginyard vs. DeMarcus Nelson
EDGE: Duke
Ginyard, a 6-5 junior, is a defensive specialist who always guards the opponent's top perimeter player. In this case, that means matching up with the versatile Nelson, a powerfully built 6-4 senior who plays just about every role imaginable. Nelson leads the Blue Devils in scoring (15.5 ppg) and steals (1.7 spg) and is second in rebounding (5.8 rpg) and assists (3.0 apg). Nelson has steadily become a better outside shooter, but his strength still is penetrating and overpowering defenders around the basket. Ginyard rarely looks to create his own shot, although he did score a career-high 16 points in the Tar Heels' last meeting with the Blue Devils.
Deon Thompson vs. Lance Thomas
EDGE: North Carolina
Thompson, a 6-8 sophomore, hasn't had the breakout season many predicted, but he has developed into a steady contributor. Thompson is averaging 6.8 points and 4.8 rebounds, but he probably won't be much of a factor in this matchup. The Blue Devils will spend much of the game using a four-guard lineup, which makes Thompson a defensive liability. Thompson fouled out in 18 minutes in the first meeting between these rivals. Thomas, also a 6-8 sophomore, provides size and post defense. Any offense he adds is a bonus, because he averages just 4.5 points.
Tyler Hansbrough vs. Kyle Singler
EDGE: North Carolina
Hansbrough, a 6-9 junior who is a candidate for national player of the year, is riding the best streak of his career. He has scored at least 20 points in nine consecutive games. Hansbrough shouldn't have any trouble extending that streak to 10. He is far too strong for Singler, a 6-8 freshman who is more suited for the wing. Hansbrough had 28 points and 18 rebounds in his last meeting with Duke. But Singler creates matchup problems of his own offensively. A good 3-point shooter who can handle the ball, Singler will pull Hansbrough away from the basket and use his quickness.
BENCH
EDGE: Duke
North Carolina has one of the nation's top sixth men in the multi-dimensional Danny Green, a 6-5 junior who ranks fourth on the team in scoring (11.8 ppg), second in rebounding (5.3 rpg) and third in steals (1.2 spg). Duke's Jon Scheyer, a 6-5 sophomore who averages 11.2 points and shoots 41 percent from 3-point range, plays a similar role. The emergence of senior Quentin Thomas, who dished out 40 assists in the six games Lawson missed, has given the Tar Heels a solid backup point guard. Still, the Blue Devils have more weapons with athletic guard Nolan Smith, 3-point specialist Taylor King and 7-foot-1 center Brian Zoubek.
COACHING
EDGE: Duke
It's tough to pick between two Hall-of-Fame coaches who have more than 1,300 wins combined. Duke's Mike Krzyzewski earned win No. 800 last week, and North Carolina's Roy Williams has 552 career victories. Krzyzewski has done a superb job of utilizing his team's strengths ? backcourt depth and 3-point shooting. Williams managed to guide the Tar Heels to a 5-1 record without Lawson. Krzyzewski holds an 8-6 edge in head-to-head matchups (4-4 since Williams arrived at UNC in 2003), but the real difference is last-minute offensive X's and O's. When the Tar Heels need a basket in the closing seconds, they have a history of not getting quality looks under Williams. The Tar Heels turned the ball over as the buzzer sounded in a 71-70 loss at Cameron in 2005. This season, the Heels also failed to get off a shot in the closing seconds of regulation in an overtime win over Florida State. Against Maryland, with the Terps up by two points and a second on the clock, Hansbrough wound up firing up an errant 3-pointer.
BOTTOM LINE
In rivalries of this magnitude, the home team normally has the edge - especially a team with a home-court advantage like Cameron Indoor Stadium offers. But Duke has been at its worst recently, losing back-to-back games at Wake Forest and Miami in February, then needing a furious rally in the final minutes to edge struggling NC State 87-86 on Saturday. UNC appears to be peaking, ripping off seven consecutive wins since the loss to Duke, all but one by double-digits. Consider the addition of a healthy Lawson, who surely would have made a difference in the first meeting, and the red-hot Tar Heels appear to have the edge in the rematch.
PREDICTION
North Carolina 84, Duke 81
Andrew Skwara is a national writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at askwara@rivals.com.
Rivals.com College Basketball Staff Writer
Game of the Week: North Carolina at Duke
Ty Lawson vs. Greg Paulus
EDGE: North Carolina
Lawson isn't a lock to start, but he should play about 30 minutes. The 5-11 sophomore is working his way back from a sprained ankle, and he came off the bench to dish out five assists in North Carolina's 90-80 win at Boston College on Saturday. Lawson added 10 points in North Carolina's 90-77 triumph over Florida State on Tuesday. That's great news for the Tar Heels, who were without Lawson when Duke won 89-78 in the Smith Center on March 6. One of the fastest players in college basketball, Lawson will be able to take the much slower Paulus off the dribble and attack the basket. Paulus, a 6-1 junior, isn't playing as big a role on offense as last season, but he remains a major 3-point threat. Paulus is shooting 42.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Wayne Ellington vs. Gerald Henderson
EDGE: North Carolina
Neither Ellington nor Henderson needs a scouting report on one another. These former five-star recruits were high school teammates at Episcopal Academy in the Philadelphia suburbs. Both are 6-4 with similar frames and will be playing in the NBA. Ellington is the more polished of the two, a true shooting guard who relies heavily on his 3-point shot and a mid-range jumper. Henderson is more athletic and a good finisher around the hoop, but he's not nearly as good a shooter as Ellington.
Marcus Ginyard vs. DeMarcus Nelson
EDGE: Duke
Ginyard, a 6-5 junior, is a defensive specialist who always guards the opponent's top perimeter player. In this case, that means matching up with the versatile Nelson, a powerfully built 6-4 senior who plays just about every role imaginable. Nelson leads the Blue Devils in scoring (15.5 ppg) and steals (1.7 spg) and is second in rebounding (5.8 rpg) and assists (3.0 apg). Nelson has steadily become a better outside shooter, but his strength still is penetrating and overpowering defenders around the basket. Ginyard rarely looks to create his own shot, although he did score a career-high 16 points in the Tar Heels' last meeting with the Blue Devils.
Deon Thompson vs. Lance Thomas
EDGE: North Carolina
Thompson, a 6-8 sophomore, hasn't had the breakout season many predicted, but he has developed into a steady contributor. Thompson is averaging 6.8 points and 4.8 rebounds, but he probably won't be much of a factor in this matchup. The Blue Devils will spend much of the game using a four-guard lineup, which makes Thompson a defensive liability. Thompson fouled out in 18 minutes in the first meeting between these rivals. Thomas, also a 6-8 sophomore, provides size and post defense. Any offense he adds is a bonus, because he averages just 4.5 points.
Tyler Hansbrough vs. Kyle Singler
EDGE: North Carolina
Hansbrough, a 6-9 junior who is a candidate for national player of the year, is riding the best streak of his career. He has scored at least 20 points in nine consecutive games. Hansbrough shouldn't have any trouble extending that streak to 10. He is far too strong for Singler, a 6-8 freshman who is more suited for the wing. Hansbrough had 28 points and 18 rebounds in his last meeting with Duke. But Singler creates matchup problems of his own offensively. A good 3-point shooter who can handle the ball, Singler will pull Hansbrough away from the basket and use his quickness.
BENCH
EDGE: Duke
North Carolina has one of the nation's top sixth men in the multi-dimensional Danny Green, a 6-5 junior who ranks fourth on the team in scoring (11.8 ppg), second in rebounding (5.3 rpg) and third in steals (1.2 spg). Duke's Jon Scheyer, a 6-5 sophomore who averages 11.2 points and shoots 41 percent from 3-point range, plays a similar role. The emergence of senior Quentin Thomas, who dished out 40 assists in the six games Lawson missed, has given the Tar Heels a solid backup point guard. Still, the Blue Devils have more weapons with athletic guard Nolan Smith, 3-point specialist Taylor King and 7-foot-1 center Brian Zoubek.
COACHING
EDGE: Duke
It's tough to pick between two Hall-of-Fame coaches who have more than 1,300 wins combined. Duke's Mike Krzyzewski earned win No. 800 last week, and North Carolina's Roy Williams has 552 career victories. Krzyzewski has done a superb job of utilizing his team's strengths ? backcourt depth and 3-point shooting. Williams managed to guide the Tar Heels to a 5-1 record without Lawson. Krzyzewski holds an 8-6 edge in head-to-head matchups (4-4 since Williams arrived at UNC in 2003), but the real difference is last-minute offensive X's and O's. When the Tar Heels need a basket in the closing seconds, they have a history of not getting quality looks under Williams. The Tar Heels turned the ball over as the buzzer sounded in a 71-70 loss at Cameron in 2005. This season, the Heels also failed to get off a shot in the closing seconds of regulation in an overtime win over Florida State. Against Maryland, with the Terps up by two points and a second on the clock, Hansbrough wound up firing up an errant 3-pointer.
BOTTOM LINE
In rivalries of this magnitude, the home team normally has the edge - especially a team with a home-court advantage like Cameron Indoor Stadium offers. But Duke has been at its worst recently, losing back-to-back games at Wake Forest and Miami in February, then needing a furious rally in the final minutes to edge struggling NC State 87-86 on Saturday. UNC appears to be peaking, ripping off seven consecutive wins since the loss to Duke, all but one by double-digits. Consider the addition of a healthy Lawson, who surely would have made a difference in the first meeting, and the red-hot Tar Heels appear to have the edge in the rematch.
PREDICTION
North Carolina 84, Duke 81
Andrew Skwara is a national writer for Rivals.com. He can be reached at askwara@rivals.com.
