two even teams at a neutral site problem

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Pretend the teams are virtually identical.
Rarely happens but assume it is true.

What kind of line are you looking for?
Take +120?
Need +130?
Maybe if you have a 50% chance of losing you'd want something even higher.

At +150 I think I'd be hoppy.
Lower than that and I might compare it to whatever else is available.

Wondering what everyone knows.
--Budgie

Or at least thinks.
Small difference.

I'll tell you right now that the +150 gives an ROI of 25%.
ROI is quickly becoming one of my least favorite tools.
Value indicator is +10 as probability (50%) minus break-even mark (40% for +150's) is 10.
A VI of +10 usually turns me on.

neutral team at +120
50x1.2=60
50x-1=-50
========
10% ROI and +4 VI (45.5% break-even)

at +150
50x1.5=75
50x-1=-50
========
25% ROI and +10 VI


Is +120 worth it or not?
What other assessments can be made?

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

Another way to think about it.

Suppose you found two games that looked to be total coin-tosses.
One pays +140 while the other pays +150.
Do you forego any value on the 140 and just try the 150 or split up your risk?
There would be "value" on both but obviously a bit more at 150.
I might be tempted to try both and at least profit from a split.
Maybe the 150 calls for greater risk.
Maybe no right answer but certainly a wrong one.

Time for a trippy shower.
Maybe give me some inspiration.
Word.

 

[smurphy]

Drugs are bad. Mmmkay?

 

[MadJack]

Drugs are bad. Mmmkay?

i was thinking the :weed: has him thinking too much lately :mj07:

EXTRAPOLATER, you sure are on a strange schedule lately

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

so...do you play just the +150 or do you split it up and try the +140? 50-50, 60-40 (of your bankroll)?

can't decide without a specific example?

and who said anything about :weed: ?

I really wanna know
--Who(?)

:weed:

besides...let's do a test and see whether or not it impairs my baseballingaling. I'll do 27 weeks with and somewhere go the other 2 without. we'll compare the results.

maybe time it for interleague.
maybe a write-off anyways.

 

[Kanuck]

:weed: :nono:

:grins:

 

[gjn23]

if 2 teams are identical and absolutely even and playing at a neutral field, i defy you to find +140/+150/+160 anywhere.....and if you do, then the two teams ARE NOT EQUAL.

-115 vs -115
equals two even teams at neutral field.

think i'll tell my book that i want 4-1 on my 2 team parlays so that my roi works out.

 

[SixFive]

do u have to be under the influence to understand these posts? I thought I was semi-intelligent until the Extrapolator posts. Not too sure now! I don't think I've understood any of them? :scared :mj07:

 

[IntenseOperator]

Another way to think about it.

Suppose you found two games that looked to be total coin-tosses.
One pays +140 while the other pays +150.
Do you forego any value on the 140 and just try the 150 or split up your risk?
There would be "value" on both but obviously a bit more at 150.
I might be tempted to try both and at least profit from a split.
Maybe the 150 calls for greater risk.
Maybe no right answer but certainly a wrong one.

Time for a trippy shower.
Maybe give me some inspiration.
Word.

There's got to be a better way to look at this. The idea of making more plays, esp with dogs, probably isn't the way to go. You end of hoping for one of two +$$ teams to win with the very possibility of both going down. Vegas always wants you making more bets.


I like Jimi Hendrix cereal

 

[CANADA MAN]

:canada1

 

[Jabberwocky]

Pretend the teams are virtually identical.
Rarely happens but assume it is true.

What kind of line are you looking for?
Take +120?
Need +130?
Maybe if you have a 50% chance of losing you'd want something even higher.

At +150 I think I'd be hoppy.
Lower than that and I might compare it to whatever else is available.

Wondering what everyone knows.
--Budgie

Or at least thinks.
Small difference.

I'll tell you right now that the +150 gives an ROI of 25%.
ROI is quickly becoming one of my least favorite tools.
Value indicator is +10 as probability (50%) minus break-even mark (40% for +150's) is 10.
A VI of +10 usually turns me on.

neutral team at +120
50x1.2=60
50x-1=-50
========
10% ROI and +4 VI (45.5% break-even)

at +150
50x1.5=75
50x-1=-50
========
25% ROI and +10 VI


Is +120 worth it or not?
What other assessments can be made?

No offense, but all of your premises are so flawed there is no way to even address them. At a 50% chance, you would be happy with +150? Yeah Ummm, what do you suppose would be the odds on the other team that has a 50% chance. It's just silly. You might want to get some sleep, and put the pipe down for a bit. Could do wonders.

 

[IntenseOperator]

No offense, but all of your premises are so flawed there is no way to even address them. At a 50% chance, you would be happy with +150? Yeah Ummm, what do you suppose would be the odds on the other team that has a 50% chance. It's just silly. You might want to get some sleep, and put the pipe down for a bit. Could do wonders.

 

[boilermaker]

That picture is very disturbing IO. At first glance I thought that she had a long beard for a muff.:mj07:

 

[SixFive]

:shrug:

That picture is very disturbing IO. At first glance I thought that she had a long beard for a muff.:mj07:

me 2. still trying to figure it out?

 

[MadJack]

That picture is very disturbing IO. At first glance I thought that she had a long beard for a muff.:mj07:

I THINK IT'S A CROW :shrug:

opps on the caps

 

[boilermaker]

I THINK IT'S A CROW :shrug:

opps on the caps

So you mean she has bird seed in her snatch?:shrug:

 

[IntenseOperator]

:142smilie

 

[MadJack]

So you mean she has bird seed in her snatch?:shrug:

no sir. i think she has WORMS in there :scared

 

[boilermaker]

no sir. i think she has WORMS in there :scared

Well they say the early bird gets the worm. It's probably a big fat night crawler.:scared

 

[EXTRAPOLATER]

if 2 teams are identical and absolutely even and playing at a neutral field, i defy you to find +140/+150/+160 anywhere.....and if you do, then the two teams ARE NOT EQUAL.

-115 vs -115
equals two even teams at neutral field.

think i'll tell my book that i want 4-1 on my 2 team parlays so that my roi works out.

So you're suggesting that the books lines never include any mistakes? There WILL be mistakes of such a magnitude coming this season. Bet you anything. May not come twice on one day but we've got a hypothetical situation here.

Let me tackle one other and then reformulate the question more palatable to this line of skepticism.