Election Odds

[treefrog]

I do not want to get into a political debate, but from a strictly gambling standpoint I do not understand why McCain is 5 points ahead in latest polls but still a +143 dog at WSEX?

I've been following it and it really hasn't changed since Obama had a large lead in polls.

Any idea on what gives?

 

[THE KOD]

Its pretty simple really.

The books know that McCain is going to say or do some really stupid things and then his chances will be doomed before Nov 3 2008.

Go Obama !

 

[Morris]

I do not want to get into a political debate, but from a strictly gambling standpoint I do not understand why McCain is 5 points ahead in latest polls but still a +143 dog at WSEX?

I've been following it and it really hasn't changed since Obama had a large lead in polls.

Any idea on what gives?

What latest poll?

There are thousands of polls and vary by regions and questions.

 

[IntenseOperator]

Reuters/Zogby poll: McCain leads by 5 percent

August 20, 2008

BY SUN-TIMES STAFF
Reuters.com is reporting that a new poll shows John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Barack Obama in the race for President. The poll, conducted by Reuters/Zogby Thursday through Saturday, shows McCain leads 46 to 41 percent.

That would mark a sharp turnaround for McCain, who trailed Obama by seven points in last month's Reuters/Zogby poll.

On the question of which candidate would be the best manager of the country's economy, Reuters reports that McCain leads Obama 49 to 40 percent.

"There is no doubt the campaign to discredit Obama is paying off for McCain right now," pollster John Zogby said. "This is a significant ebb for Obama."

The poll results were announced as speculation heats up about who the candidates will choose as their running mates.

The Obama campaign has said it will announce its vice presidential nominee any day, and will announce the choice via text message to supporters.

Sun-Times Washington Bureau Chief Lynn Sweet first reported in her blog Tuesday that Obama will appear with his choice of running mate in front of the old state capitol building in Springfield Saturday.

McCain plans to announce his running mate Aug. 29.

 

[HUDSON]

I heard Obama leads by 2%......That was this afternoon. If that guy gets in we are DOOMED! Either candidate doesn't really excite me, but Obama scares the crap out of me more than McCain.

 

[bjfinste]

While my personal view is that polls are generally meaningless, national polls are even more so considering the electoral college system.

My assumption is that McCain is still a considerable dog at the books because, if you go with the state-by-state polls, Obama still has a lead in electoral votes. Many states that went for Bush in 2004 have very thin margins, though. Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Montana, North Dakota are all very, very close. If McCain loses either of those first two (which I suspect he will not) he is done.

That said, McCain at +143 definitely has some value.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I do not want to get into a political debate, but from a strictly gambling standpoint I do not understand why McCain is 5 points ahead in latest polls but still a +143 dog at WSEX?

I've been following it and it really hasn't changed since Obama had a large lead in polls.

Any idea on what gives?

Tree- odds few months before conventions do not change much despite ups and downs in polls unless there is some monumental news that comes out.

Most line movement will come day after each convention--also VP's are known factor then also.

Each candidate should have bounce up following their respective conventions.

Personally went with these odds in July--not on confidence of picking winner--but expect to have lucrative scalp/middle.

Ticket#:691068
INTERNET / -1 Jul 15 09:06 AM
TNT
PARTY TO WIN THE PRESIDENCY
[10001] REPUBLICAN PARTY +220

 

[IntenseOperator]

Do the books still have the female from NY as the monster favorite to win the Dem Party and also to win the election?