West Coast Aces

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LOKI
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West Coast Aces
September 8, 2009


Three of the best pitchers in baseball are playing late Tuesday games on the West Coast.


Chad Billingsley (L.A. Dodgers) -200 at Arizona Diamondbacks ? 9:40 pm ET

Billingsley and the Dodgers are -200 ?chalk? for the second in a four-game series. The Dodgers won the opener 7-2 and lead the season series 10-6.

L.A. only has a 3.5 game lead over Colorado in the NL West so they need to keep on winning.



Billingsley (12-9, 3.86 ERA) has lost his last three starts with a 5.29 ERA. His splits are pretty even between home and away, and this is his first meeting against Arizona this season. Billingsley was 6-4 with a 3.36 ERA against the Diamondbacks from 2006-2008.

Billy Buckner (2-6, 8.29 ERA) is the opposing pitcher and Red Sox fans cringe at even hearing that name. This Buckner has made eight starts, but only one since being sent to AAA in June. That start was last Thursday night at the Dodgers when he gave up four runs in six innings.

Felix Hernandez (Seattle) +110 at L.A. Angels ? 10:05 pm ET

Hernandez and Seattle are +110 underdogs as they open up a three games series. The Angels are only 7-9 versus Seattle this year, but they lead Texas by five games in the AL West.

Hernandez (14-5, 2.65 ERA) is a Cy Young candidate who is pitching with plenty of motivation. His last start was against these Angels, and all he did was shut-out their potent lineup over eight innings in a 3-0 win. Hernandez is a mind-blowing 8-2 with a 2.06 ERA away from home.

Scott Kazmir (8-8, 5.68 ERA) was Hernandez?s opposition last week and tonight as well. That was Kazmir?s first start after being traded from Tampa and he pitched very good with one run allowed in 6 1/3rd innings. Look for another good outing from Kazmir.

Tim Lincecum (San Francisco) -270 vs. San Diego ? 10:15 pm ET

Lincecum and the Giants are huge -270 home favorites in the middle of this three-game series. The Giants won yesterday 9-4 and are 6-1 at home versus San Diego and 0-6 on the road. San Fran trails Colorado by two games in the NL Wild Card.

Lincecum (13-5, 2.34 ERA) is 1-2 in his last three starts even though he has a 2.04 ERA. His home numbers are ridiculous at 8-1 and a 1.83 ERA. That fact, plus the Giants success against San Diego at home, is why the spread is so large.

San Diego?s Kevin Correia (10-10, 4.29 ERA) is a former Giant who has pitched solidly overall this year. Correia has a 3.00 ERA in two starts versus San Francisco this year, including one on the road. The Padres won both contests.
 

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LOKI
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Monday's best MLB bets


Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-230, 10)

The Rays are done.

Tampa Bay arrives at Yankee Stadium having lost four in a row, including Sunday's 5-3 setback to Detroit where it used five relievers in a four-run ninth and wasted a sparkling major league debut by Wade Davis. It was the second straight game in which Tampa Bay blew a late lead.

"When you have leads and when you can't hold leads late, that's the part of the game that's most difficult to endure," manager Joe Maddon told the team's web site.

The Rays are 6 1-2 games behind Boston for the American league wild card - seven in the loss column - and begin a stretch of 11 games on the road, where they are just 29-38 this season.

Matt Garza starts the nightcap of a day-night doubleheader. His current stretch of seven starts without a win began with a loss to the Yankees on July 29.

Pick: New York

Cincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies (-250, 9.5)

It doesn't matter where Ubaldo Jimenez pitches, or whom he faces. He knows how to keep the score down.

One of the better pitchers in the National League this season, Jimenez has made seven consecutive starts in which the total was under.

In his last seven starts - four on the road and three at home - Jimenez is 6-1. He has worked at least 6 2-3 innings and allowed no more than two runs in each of those outings, while the total has not climbed above eight.

Jimenez hasn't exactly been matched up with aces, either. Some of the guys he has faced were Tim Redding, Craig Stammen, Kevin Hart and Sean Marshall.

He also has made two starts against San Francisco ace Tim Lincecum, with the totals coming in below 8.0 in the first matchup and under 6.5 in the second meeting.

Pick: Under
 

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Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers

Monday's streaking and slumping starting pitchers
Streaking

CC Sabathia (16-7, 3.48 ERA), New York Yankees

CC Sabathia is showing Yankees fans why he was worth the millions of dollars New York paid to get him. The Yanks are 9-1 in the big lefty?s last 10 starts, including last week?s 10-2 'W' over the Orioles.

?I?ve been saying it for a long time, I?ll take a World Series trophy over a Cy Young any day,? Sabathia told Newday after allowing one run and striking out nine against the Orioles. ?That?s my goal, to win a World Series.?

If you think the price is too steep to back the Yanks Monday, consider the runline. The Bronx Bombers have covered the number in seven straight Sabathia starts.

Brian Moehler (8-10, 5.11), Houston Astros

Value hunters pay attention to this journeyman righty. The 37-year-old big league vet has strung together three consecutive impressive starts for the Astros. Although he came up on the losing end of Tuesday?s 4-1 setback to the Cubs, Moehler gave his club a good chance for the win.

?I thought [Moehler] deserved a better fate,? Houston manager Cecil Cooper told the club?s web site. ?I thought he threw the ball well, hit his spots well and moved the ball around. He did a good job.?

The Astros are still 2-1 in Moehler?s last three appearances. The under is 4-0 in his last four trips to the mound.

Slumping

Josh Beckett (14-5, 3.87), Boston Red Sox

We took some slack for not including Beckett in the slumping section in his last start and the criticism was validated soon afterwards.

The former World Series MVP went six innings and struck out nine without issuing a walk, but the long ball was the big story again. Beckett was tagged for four earned runs along with two solo bombs.

It marked the fifth straight start that the righty allowed multiple homers. Opposing batters have taken Beckett out of the park 14 times over his last 26 1-3 innings pitched.

?He?s not hurt. He?s not throwing 79 mph,? Red Sox manager Terry Francona told reporters a little over a week ago. ?He?s had a couple of outings that aren?t up to his standards.?

Betting against the Sox with Beckett on the bump is still risky (Boston is 3-2 in his last five starts). If you?re looking for a more reliable bet, as far as trends are concerned, take a peek at the total. The over is 5-0 in Beckett?s last five outings.

Scott Richmond (6-8, 4.61), Toronto Blue Jays

If you are looking for a possible parlay pitcher, the young righthander may fit the bill.

In his last six starts, Richmond is 0-4 with a 6.81 ERA. He has 18 walks in that span, inflating his WHIP to 1.85.

And in his last five outings, the total has gone over, with a minimum of 10 runs scored in each game.

Dave Bush (3-6, 6.47), Milwaukee Brewers

The righthander is listed as questionable with a triceps injury. Questionable is also a good word to describe his recent performances.

Bush was sidelined nearly two months with arm woes before returning late last month. He has lost both his starts, allowing 13 runs, 15 hits and five walks in eight innings. That's a staggering 2 1-2 baserunners per inning.

Going back to before his injury, Bush is winless in his last seven starts, lasting more than five innings just once.

This is his second straight start against the Cardinals, who tattooed him for 11 hits and eight runs in 3 1-3 innings last time.
 

Lumi

LOKI
Forum Member
Aug 30, 2002
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Top 5 Trends

Top 5 Trends

Top 5 Trends
CIN
COL CIN are 9-0 in their last 9 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
OAK
CHW Under is 8-0 in CHW last 8 games following a win.
LA
ARI Under is 8-0 in LA last 8 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
MIN
TOR Under is 8-0 in MIN last 8 games vs. a right-handed starter.
MIN
TOR Under is 7-0 in MIN last 7 games vs. a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30.
 
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