Bettors fading Saints early

Lumi · Jan 25, 2010

Bettors fading Saints early

The stage is set.

The Super Bowl now has its two contestants and it couldn?t be more appropriate that it comes down to the two best teams in the league. Both the Colts and Saints matched each other win for win throughout the regular season without a loss through Week 13 and now they?ll match up in what has become a rarity in pro football, the top teams from each conference facing each other.

The No. 1 seeds from each conference will square off for the first time in the Super Bowl since 1993 when the Bills played Dallas. The matchup on paper looks to be one of the better ones in years matching up the Saints and Colts passing offenses against each other.

There is also plenty of intrigue in the game led by the story of this being the Saints first trip to the Super Bowl ever. Peyton Manning will be making his second visit to the Super Bowl, a game won in Miami, the site of this year?s game. In fact, now, all four of the Colts Super Bowl games will have been played in Miami.

Then there?s the story of Manning growing up in New Orleans who is the son of Saints legend Archie Manning. We?ll have two weeks to sift through all the Super Bowl stories and hype, but the top immediate story rests with the Las Vegas line; what was offered to the public and how they responded.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants sent a recommendation with the Colts as a 4-point favorite and a total of 52. The Las Vegas Hilton was the first Las Vegas Sports Book to offer the Super Bowl posting the Colts at -4, but bumped their initial total offering to 56.

When the other Sportsbooks opened the game up, they all began with the Colts -3.5 and the high total like the Hilton posted. As soon as the NFC Championship game was over and the lines were posted, the bets started coming in on the Colts. Within the first few minutes the spread had been pushed up everywhere until finally settling at 5.5 at the Hilton and 4.5 everywhere else.

The initial rush on the Colts is likely because 60% of the bettors who had the Saints Sunday had lost laying the four points, compounded by the fact that the Saints were lucky in many folks eyes during their overtime win against the Vikings. Bettors who had the Vikings felt Minnesota should have won straight up and didn?t believe immediately following NFC title game that the Saints can keep up with the Colts.

The Colts were very impressive on both sides of the ball. They didn?t seem too affected by the Jets top-ranked defense and were merely slowed in the first half during their 30-17 win in the AFC Championship. The feeling is that the Saints defense will have a tough time stopping Manning.

Opinions will surely vary for the next two weeks and some of those early thoughts on the Saints will be buried when people start feeling nostalgic and sentimental about the city of New Orleans. Everyone has a soft spot for the city and their fans following the tragedies of Hurricane Katrina.

When the masses come out to bet the game who are unsure who to take -- the folks who don?t bet all year but have to because it?s the Super Bowl -- they?ll likely side with Saints. The public will also opt to go with the money line, forsaking the points to win straight up as is always the case with the underdogs in the Super Bowl.

As far as the Sharps go, their opinion will matter less for this game than any other sporting event all year. This is the ultimate public game where Sharp money is barely noticed because of all the public funds dropped for the game.

The Sportsbooks are hoping that the game stays around the dead numbers of 5 or 5.5, rather than having it bumped or lowered to the key numbers of 7, 4, or 3 to avoid getting sided.

This will be an attractive game for the public that could possibly set a Nevada record for handle. The previous high was in 2006 when $94 million was wagered for the Steelers-Seahawks game. Despite the current economic climate, the Sportsbooks have been one area that haven?t been affected as much, with many books stating they?re flat in year-over-year football numbers.

The Sportsbook numbers are more a reflection of locals still playing sports regularly, but the Super Bowl handle will be more of a reflection of what visitors bring in from out of town. Start making plans America! If you can?t be in Miami, there is no better place to be for Super Bowl weekend than Las Vegas.

Books Do Well on Championship Games

The favored teams had about a 60%-40% edge in handle on Sunday making both games pretty balanced. The Colts winning and covering wasn?t all that bad just because the larger risk was any scenario that had the Jets winning on the money line which was one of the favorite bets of the weekend by the public.

The Saints outcome was a bookmakers? best friend when the favored team won but didn?t cover, negating all point-spread wagers on the Saints and terminating all wagers on the Vikings money line.

Not all books carry teasers during the playoffs, but those who do probably wish they hadn?t for Sunday. Just about every side covered if playing 6-point teasers going 7-1. If playing a 7-point teaser, every side won. The Colts game landed on 47 with a total that was hovering around 40 to 41 points.

Super Bowl Props

The Las Vegas Hilton Super Book has been the leader in Las Vegas with innovative and very opinionated Super Bowl propositions for almost a decade. The same crew at the Hilton used to run the Imperial Palace, which then too was the industry leader in props.

The crew was hard at work analyzing every stat angle from the moment the game was set and will likely have their first wave of props up early this week before the unveiling of their massive 15 page prop sheet later next week.

Look for all the fun stuff dealing with Super Bowl stats going against stats from the NHL, NASCAR, Premier League Soccer, NBA, and College Basketball events going on that weekend.

Unlike just about every Sports Book in Nevada, the Hilton offers parlays on the props that aren?t correlated.

Lumi · Jan 25, 2010

Colts, Saints alive, kicking - Wise wagerers quickly back Colts

Colts, Saints alive, kicking - Wise wagerers quickly back Colts

Colts, Saints alive, kicking - Wise wagerers quickly back Colts

Colts, Saints alive, kicking

Wise wagerers quickly back Colts

Betting against Peyton Manning is rarely advised. It's not as dumb as staring into the summer sun, which is a no-win situation, but it does fall in the category of playing with fire.

Spot the opposing team a double-digit lead, dare Manning to rally and cover as a big favorite, and he puts up 24 unanswered points. If you're on the other side, he burns your bankroll and your eyeballs.

So it's no surprise the Indianapolis Colts are 4 1/2-point favorites over the New Orleans Saints in the Super Bowl on Feb. 7 in Miami. Of the four teams playing Sunday, the Colts were easily the most impressive.

"After watching the games," said Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sports books, "I would suggest the Colts are the better team. The Manning kid is incredible."

Manning started slowly, picked up the pace and then completely picked apart the New York Jets' defense to lead the Colts to a 30-17 victory in the AFC Championship Game.

Before the first pass was thrown Sunday, the projected line at Lucky's for a Colts-Saints matchup was Indianapolis minus-3. By the end of the night, it was obvious that was not the right price.

The Saints were extremely lucky to dodge elimination in a 31-28 overtime victory over the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC championship.

"At the beginning of the day, I had a couple numbers in mind in terms of matchups," MGM Mirage sports book director Jay Rood said. "If the two teams played well and looked good, I was thinking Colts about minus-1 1/2 over the Saints."

New Orleans did not look so good, so Rood opened the line 31/2 and said bettors lined up "right away" to wager on Indianapolis. The high percentage of early Colts bets pushed the number to 4 1/2, and it might creep up in the next two weeks.

The Saints, you get the sense, are just happy to be in their first Super Bowl. Manning already has been there, and he expects to win it again.

The NFL, Las Vegas sports books and the bettors all can agree on this: Indianapolis-New Orleans is about as good as it gets in terms of a Super Bowl matchup. Two great quarterbacks, Manning and Drew Brees, and two teams that at one point were a combined 27-0.

There should be offensive fireworks -- the total is 56 -- and proposition betting will turn the game into a wagering circus.

A record $94.5 million was wagered at Nevada sports books on the 2006 Super Bowl, but the state's handle has declined slightly each year since. Expect a spike in business for Super Bowl XLIV.

The impact of a sagging economy was more dramatic last year, when the state's handle of $81.5 million for the game was an 11.5 percent decrease from 2008.

"I hope we beat the record. I feel we're going to snap out of our little slump," Vaccaro said. "Even in bad times, I'm looking for the best (handle) we've had on the Super Bowl in the past four or five years."

Vikings quarterback Brett Favre was so close to earning an invitation to the party. Minnesota was at the New Orleans 33-yard line -- and within field-goal range for Ryan Longwell -- with 19 seconds remaining in regulation before two inexcusable mistakes.

First, the Vikings drew a 5-yard penalty for having 12 men in the huddle. Next, Favre rolled to his right and, instead of running for a crucial 5 to 7 yards that appeared available, he threw late across the middle and was intercepted by the Saints' Tracy Porter.

"The two biggest gaffes of the year," Vaccaro said. "How do you get a penalty out of a timeout? Favre's pass across his body was ridiculous."

Vaccaro credited Favre, who passed for 310 yards and a touchdown, for being "pretty courageous" and playing through injuries. "I didn't think he was getting up a couple times," Vaccaro said.

Minnesota also was hurt by six fumbles (three lost) and a dubious pass-interference call in overtime.

Brees, who threw for three TDs, was good enough but not spectacular. New Orleans, favored by 3 1/2, failed to cover.

Manning passed for 377 yards and three TDs to rally the Colts, who covered as 81/2-point favorites after trailing 17-6.

"We took a ton of Colts money. We got hurt on that game, but not too bad," Rood said. "We had a lot of parlays going from the Colts to the Saints, so we avoided that bullet. We needed the Saints to win but not cover, so it was the ideal scenario for us."

The Jets had a great run, and coach Rex Ryan need not apologize for predicting a win. He got beat by the NFL's best quarterback.

This Super Bowl matchup is ideal. Manning is not the guaranteed winner, but if you bet against him, prepare to get burned.

Lumi · Jan 25, 2010

Indy favored to win SBXLIV over Saints

Indy favored to win SBXLIV over Saints

Indy favored to win SBXLIV over Saints
January 24, 2010

LAS VEGAS (AP) -Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts opened as a four-point favorite to beat New Orleans in the Super Bowl.

Oddsmaker Sean Van Patten of Las Vegas Sports Consultants said the firm gave that line after watching New Orleans struggle to beat the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC championship game Sunday night. Las Vegas Sports Consultants provides betting lines for roughly 90 percent of sports books in Nevada.

``The big factor here is that Indy has been there,'' Van Patten said. ``The experience factor is such a huge thing when it comes to the Super Bowl.''

Manning and the Colts won the Super Bowl in 2007 over the Chicago Bears.

Patten said oddsmakers like that Indianapolis has succeeded against two top NFL defenses in consecutive games. The top-seeded Colts beat the New York Jets 30-17 Sunday in the AFC championship.

Indianapolis was a 4 1/2-point favorite in the Glantz-Culver line, with the over-under at 55 1/2 points.

Sports books gave Indianapolis 8-1 odds to win the Super Bowl at the start of the season, compared with 18-1 for New Orleans.

``I think the Saints are very fortunate to be in there,'' said Jay Kornegay, executive director of the race and sports book at the Las Vegas Hilton. ``To get five turnovers at home and having to go to overtime to win it, I don't think they were playing that well.''

New Orleans outlasted Minnesota 31-28 in overtime, even though the Vikings gained 218 more yards and had nearly twice as many first downs as the Saints.

Jay Rood, race and sports book director for casino operator MGM Mirage, said bettors began favoring Indianapolis soon after New Orleans won and the odds were posted.

Rood said that was because the Colts have been consistent all year, while Saints bettors who lost Sunday because New Orleans didn't cover the spread didn't want to take the team again so soon.

``They don't usually come right back on the team that just burned them on a bet,'' Rood said

Lumi · Jan 25, 2010

Super Bowl odds breakdown

Super Bowl odds breakdown

Super Bowl odds breakdown

The last pairing of playoff games ended up being the most exciting of the entire postseason.

It?s a damn shame we have to wait two weeks for the grand finale.

Super Bowl XLIV will commence in Miami on February 7, with the Indianapolis Colts squaring off against the New Orleans Saints.

**** caught up with oddsmaker Pete Korner late Sunday night and bombarded him with a cavalcade of questions regarding the Super Bowl matchup.

?The two best teams in the NFL made it,? said Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas. ?This looks like it?s going to be a great game and I think you have all of the necessary ingredients, but a lot of times there is a lot of build up for these big games and they go flat. This looks like it?s going to be a real super game and I can?t wait to see it, but who knows.?

Neither team stumbled into this game as we?ve seen in recent Super Bowls. The BCS should take a lesson because as Korner mentioned, this postseason tournament produced the two best teams in the league.

These squads were favorites to reach Super Sunday six games into the 2009 season. Each team was convincingly undefeated at that point ? the Colts outscoring opponents by 17.2 points per game while the Saints? margin of victory was 18.5 ppg.

Both offenses were consistently prolific as well. Although Indianapolis appeared to walk through games at times during the regular season, the offense finished ranked 13th in scoring at 23.6 ppg. New Orleans was the top-ranked offense at 28.9 ppg.

While the three highest totals in Super Bowl history are 55, 53.5 and 53 points, the offensive personnel these teams boast prompted a high total.

Korner and his Club sent out a total of 55, but most shops are currently working with a half point higher and some as high as 56 points.

?We?ve got two high-powered quarterbacks so this total definitely warranted a mid-50s number,? Korner said. ?The Super Bowl becomes more or less a public game. Wiseguys? money is usually washed out with all the money that comes in from everybody else and when we have a public game we know the tendency is to bet the over.?

Korner expects the total to keep rising during the early part of the week.

?We haven?t seen this type of total in a Super Bowl before so it?s going to be interesting,? he said. ?If you are an under player I would just wait and see how high this number is going to get, and if it gets to 57 that probably is going to be the apex.?

The spread for the game opened at 3.5 or 4 at many offshore markets and almost instantaneously, sharp action inflated the number to 5 or 5.5.

Korner mentioned the Sports Club had an incredible season establishing lines, but admitted his team was well off when making the Super Bowl number.

?We put out the worst number we could have, we never thought it would be over 3,? stated Korner, who sent out the Colts at 3-even but believes the spread?s early fluctuation is a bit of an overreaction.

?As a group we were very surprised it went up that quickly, but I think it was because of the loose defense of New Orleans and how the Colts scored 30 on the NFL?s best defense,? he said. ?I think the quick knee-jerk reaction was to put all the money on the Colts.?

Korner pointed out that less than one percent of the total bets the Super Bowl will incur were placed Sunday evening and estimates that only 10-15 percent of the handle will come in the first week of wagering.

?We?ll know by tomorrow or Tuesday where this thing?s just going to sit for a week to nine days,? said Korner, who predicts the line will eventually settle around 4.

Moneylines, team totals and halftime lines have already been posted for Super Bowl XLIV. Proposition bets, a Super Bowl favorite for the casual bettor, are scheduled to be released no later than Thursday.

A few historical Super Bowl stats to wet your whistle:

- The NFC narrowly holds the edge in Super Bowl history, winning 22 championships, but that conference?s representative has only emerged victorious once in the last six years.

- Since playoff seeding began in 1975, there have been eight occasions where the same numbered seeds reached the Super Bowl and the NFC won six of those games.

- In the 43-year history of the Super Bowl, only nine times has the favorite won the game, but failed to cover the spread

Lumi · Jan 27, 2010

Who will own Super Bowl XLIV?

Who will own Super Bowl XLIV?

Who will own Super Bowl XLIV?

The long NFL season that began last summer has but one game yet to be played. That final act will take place in Miami on February 7 when Super Bowl XLIV kicks off late that Sunday afternoon.

And while the two participants have now been determined there remains one question that needs to be answered in order for the winner of that game to be proclaimed.

Where is Vanna White when you need her?

You may be asking ?What has Ms. White got to do with this season?s Super Bowl??

Well, practically everything in terms of crowning the winner.

After all, Ms White is the purveyor of vowels on the long running game show ?Wheel of Fortune.? Thus she may need to be called upon to provide the missing vowel, either an ?A?? or an ?E.?

White?s services will be needed because Sun Life Stadium shall either be ??Peyton?s Place? if the Indianapolis Colts are victorious or ?Payton?s Place? if the New Orleans Saints pull the upset.

QB Peyton Manning has been the key to the Colts success for much of this past decade.

Coach Sean Payton is the architect behind New Orleans? league leading offense this past season.

Will Super Bowl XLIV indeed be a soap opera filled with twists and turns, highs and lows, ebbs and flows?

Or will the NFL?s final showcase be a wire to wire affair with the winner clearly stamping itself as the team to remember from the 2009 season.

Both the Saints and Colts were the top seeds in their Conferences entering the post season and for the first time in 16 seasons the top seeds both advanced to the Super Bowl.

That alone should show you just how hard it has been for form to hold up throughout the NFL Playoffs. Since the NFL increased the Playoffs from 10 to 12 teams in 1990, this is only the third time that both No. 1 seeds have made it to the big game. Of the 19 Super Bowls since that change only three times has at least one No. 1 seed not made the Super Bowl, including last season when Pittsburgh, the No. 2 AFC seed defeated the NFC No. 4 seed, Arizona.

Prior to last season there had been four straight Super Bowls in which the lone No. 1 seed involved actually was the team that lost. Three of those four top seeds were NFC teams, including Chicago which lost to the Colts in SB XLI. The lone AFC top seed to lose in this period was the 2007 New England Patriots who lost to the New York Giants, the NFC?s No. 5 seed.

The last No. 1 seed from either conference to win a Super Bowl was the 2003 Patriots who defeated Carolina in SB XXXVIII. That marked the only time in nine Super Bowls that a No. 1 seed won. During this nine-year stretch, seven Super Bowl losers were No. 1 seeds.

Of course, that will end this season as a top seed will both win and lose Super Bowl XLIV.

After impressive wins in the Divisional round of the Playoffs both Indianapolis and New Orleans struggled to win the Conference Championship games.

First, Indianapolis spotted the upstart New York Jets a 17-13 halftime lead before shutting out the Jets 17-0 in the second half to win 30-17, defeating the league?s top ranked defense and outrushing the league?s top ranked rushing offense.

A few hours later, New Orleans? Garrett Hartley kicked the game winning field goal nearly five minutes into overtime to send the Saints to Miami. Although entertaining and dramatic the NFC Championship game was a sloppy contest with a total of six turnovers, five by the Vikings. Credit is given to the Saints for making the plays needed to prevail but the Saints should be concerned that they needed overtime to win a game in which they were plus-four in turnovers during regulation.

The Colts were more dominant in their win over the Jets with only a poor second quarter -- in which the Jets scored all 17 of their points -- marring an otherwise solid effort.

Perhaps as a result of what was witnessed on Sunday the Colts opened up as 3 ?-point favorites over the Saints in Super Bowl XLIV. The Total opened up at 56.

Within a few hours Sunday evening the line had climbed to as high as 5 ? at the Las Vegas Hilton but was only 4 ? at most other Las Vegas and offshore sportsbooks. The total remained steady at 56.

In next week?s column a selection for both the side and total shall be dispensed along with a look at some of the many numerous proposition bets, or ?props,? that will be available in varying amounts at virtually every sports book in the state.

For now, here are some more general facts and observations about the Super Bowl.

Under the current Playoff format there have been 19 previous Super Bowls and the winning team has also covered the pointspread in 13 of those wins, with 4 ATS losses and a pair of pointspread pushes. Interestingly, three of the four games in which the Super Bowl winner lost to the spread have occurred over just the past six Super Bowls, including last season when Pittsburgh defeated Arizona 27-23 but failed to cover as a 6 ?-point favorite.

Although last season?s Super Bowl went ?over? the total, the prior editions each stayed ?under.? Each of the past five Super Bowls has totaled 50 or fewer points including two games that produced just 31 total points. Of the last 19 Super Bowls only five would have gone ?over? the current game?s total of 56 with three of those being in the early 1990s. One game (SB XXX!) produced exactly 56 total points.

The favored team has won 14 of the last 19 Super Bowls. To be fair, however, only three times has the favored team been less than a six-point choice. In seven of these games there has been a double digit favorite and each of the last four double-digit underdogs has won outright, the most recent having been the 2007 Giants who ended New England?s quest of 19-0.

Here are two more indications of the parity (some would say unpredictability) that has developed in recent seasons.

In each of the past six Super Bowls the team with the better regular season record has failed to cover the spread, with three of those teams losing outright. You have to go back to Super Bowl XXXVII when Tampa Bay defeated Oakland to find a team with the better record hoisting the Vince Lombardi trophy and also rewarding their backers at the betting windows.

And the old adage that avoiding turnovers is vital to victory has been challenged in recent seasons as three of the last six Super Bowl winners lost the turnover battle in the big game with one game producing an equal number of miscues. Yet in Super Bowls XXV through XXXVII the team committing fewer turnovers won nine times and in four games the turnovers were equal.

So enjoy the buildup to the ?Big Game.? Coverage will be virtually non-stop and many angles will be explored, some of which may actually have a bearing on the game itself.

Certainly the matchup of the Colts and the Saints has the potential for a wide open and entertaining game. But that?s been true of many other Super Bowl matchups over the years and only a handful of such games have unfolded.

Will this year?s matchup live up to billing? Or will factors other than the obvious play critical roles in deciding the outcome?

Lumi · Jan 27, 2010

Nevada Super Bowl Handle

Nevada Super Bowl Handle (State Began Keeping Records in 1991)
Year Handle Result Win/Loss Hold %
2009 $81,514,748 Steelers 27, Cardinals 23 $6,678,044 8.2
2008 $92,055,833 Giants 17, Patriots 14 ($2,573,103) -2.8
2007 $93,067,358 Colts 29, Bears 17 $12,930,175 13.9
2006 $94,534,372 Steelers 21, Seahawks 10 $8,828,431 9.3
2005 $90,759,236 Patriots 24, Eagles 21 $15,430,138 17.0
2004 $81,242,191 Patriots 32, Panthers 29 $12,440,698 15.3
2003 $71,693,032 Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21 $5,264,963 7.3
2002 $71,513,304 Patriots 20, Rams 17 $2,331,607 3.3
2001 $67,661,425 Ravens 34, Giants 7 $11,002,636 16.3
2000 $71,046,751 Rams 23, Titans 16 $4,237,978 6.0
1999 $75,986,520 Broncos 34, Falcons 19 $2,906,601 3.8
1998 $77,253,246 Broncos 31, Packers 24 $472,033 0.6
1997 $70,853,211 Packers 35, Patriots 21 $2,265,701 3.2
1996 $70,907,801 Cowboys 27, Steelers 17 $7,126,145 10.1
1995 $69,591,818 49ers 49, Chargers 26 ($396,674) -0.6
1994 $54,483,221 Cowboys 30, Bills 13 $7,481,541 13.7
1993 $56,811,405 Cowboys 52, Bills 17 $7,174,869 12.6
1992 $50,334,277 Redskins 37, Bills 24 $301,280 0.6
1991 $40,080,409 Giants 20, Bills 19 $3,512,241 8.8

Lumi · Jan 27, 2010

King for a day: Who'll win the MVP in Super Bowl XLIV?

King for a day: Who'll win the MVP in Super Bowl XLIV?

King for a day: Who'll win the MVP in Super Bowl XLIV?

Super Bowl proposition bets are the appetizer before the main course, the stretching before the game, the opening band before the headliner.

Gamblers love to play props, and predicting the Super Bowl Most Valuable Player is one of the hottest wagering options on the card.

A total of 22 quarterbacks have garnered the Super Bowl MVP award so it?s no surprise the two favorites this year are the gunslingers under center.

If you elect to only make one pick in this prop option, you better select a player from the team you think will win because only once in the 43-year history of the Super Bowl has the MVP been given to a player on the losing team (Chuck Howley, 1971).

But if you are looking to have some fun with your MVP hopeful, nab a couple of longshots from each team because you never know who will emerge as the Super Bowl hero. Santonio Holmes was selected as last year?s MVP with +1500 odds.

Covers.com dissects a few candidates that could hoist the Pete Rozelle Trophy and become enshrined in the lore of Super Bowl history with legends like Joe Montana, Lynn Swann and Emmitt Smith.

Peyton Manning +100

With the Colts listed as 5.5-point favorites and one of the greatest quarterbacks to ever play the game leading the offense, you?re only getting even money on this MVP option. Peyton Manning became the seventh player in league history to win the Associated Press MVP and Super Bowl MVP in the same season when he won his first title in 2006. Six of those seven players were quarterbacks and three of them (Bart Starr, Joe Montana, Terry Bradshaw) won the championship MVP at least twice, so why not a second helping for Manning?

Drew Brees +250

If the Saints can pull off the upset in Super Bowl XLIV, the MVP recipient will most likely be Drew Brees. Joe Namath, Len Dawson, Jim Plunkett, Doug Williams, Tom Brady and Eli Manning guided their teams to championships as underdog quarterbacks and earned Super Bowl MVP hardware in return. Brees torched four AFC opponents this season for 1,031 yards and six touchdowns and could find similar success against the Colts secondary.

Reggie Wayne +1000

Only six receivers have collected the Super Bowl?s MVP award but three of past five recipients have been wideouts. This trend is congruent with the air-it-out league that is becoming the NFL. If Reggie Wayne puts up the same kind of stats he did against the Saints during the opening week of the 2007 season, he is sure to claim the Rozelle Trophy. Wayne posted seven catches for 115 yards with receiving touchdowns of 28 and 45 yards in the 41-10 blowout.

Dallas Clark +1400

A tight end has never been adorned with the coveted MVP honor, so why not this year? Dallas Clark is Manning?s go-to guy and can put up wide receiver-esque numbers any given Sunday. An outing like Clark?s Week 2 performance when he hauled in seven passes for 183 yards and a score could be enough for the MVP. Clark tied for the team lead in catches (100) and touchdowns (10) this season and eclipsed the 1,000-yard barrier for the first time in his career.

Reggie Bush +1600

If the electrifying Reggie Bush returns a punt for a touchdown, has a decent day on the ground without any fumbles, snatches a handful of passes and the Saints win, the MVP is his. If he does capture the accolade, Bush would become the fifth player in NFL history to win the Heisman Trophy and Super Bowl MVP, joining Roger Staubach, Plunkett, Marcus Allen and Desmond Howard.

Darren Sharper +2500

This is the dark horse pick of the group. Only eight defensive players have won the championship MVP but a safety took it as recently as 2003 (Dexter Jackson, Buccaneers). Darren Sharper recorded nine interceptions this season and returned three of them for 99, 97 and 42-yard touchdowns. The veteran made big play after big play in 2009 and if this Super Bowl comes down to the wire and Sharper picks off Manning for a game-winning score or gets his second to seal the victory, he will be named the MVP.

The pick: We like Wayne to grab the game?s top individual honor. If you?re down on him because of a so-so performance against the Jets, check out the head-and-shoulders juke he put on All-Pro cornerback Darelle Revis at the 2:20 mark below.

Others in the running: Joseph Addai (+800), Pierre Thomas (+800), Marques Colston (+1200), Devery Henderson (+2000), Jeremy Shockey (+2500), Gary Brackett (+4000), Dwight Freeney (+4000), Robert Mathis (+4000), Will Smith (+4000) and Jonathan Vilma (+4000).

Odds provided by BetUS.com.

Lumi · Jan 28, 2010

Super Bowl XLIV

Lumi · Jan 28, 2010

Super Trends for Miami

Super Trends for Miami

Super Trends for Miami
January 27, 2010

Even though the Sportsbooks in Nevada turned a profit last year on Super Bowl XLIII between Pittsburgh and Arizona, the $81 million wagered was the biggest drop since the stat started tracking the Betting Handle in 1991. With only one game left, the books are hoping to have an increase and get back into the $90 million range, which is what the previous four Super Bowls accounted for.
This year?s pro football season concludes with Super Bowl XLIV on Feb. 7, 2007 from Sun Life Stadium in Miami, Florida when Indianapolis and New Orleans clash in the finale. Ironically, the Colts' fourth trip to the league?s finale will be in the same exact venue as the previous three visits, South Florida. The franchise has gone 2-1 in those first three battles from Miami.

While the games within the games will be broken down in detail over the next 10 days, gamblers can point to 43 years of trends that may or may not sway your opinion for the Super Bowl.

So, without further adieu, let?s take a closer look at some numbers for the big game.

Rough Debut

There have been nine teams that have made exactly one trip to the Super Bowl, and New Orleans will be the 10th to join this group. Of those clubs, only the N.Y. Jets, Baltimore Ravens and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been able to notch a victory in its first ever Super Bowl.

Can the Saints push that number to 4-6? Even though Tampa Bay represented the NFC South well with its dominating 48-21 win in Super Bowl XXXVII over Oakland, Carolina and Atlanta failed to win in their only chances for the division. Total players might want to make a note that all three of those teams saw the ?over? cash in their Super Bowl debuts.

Perfect 10

The matchup between the Colts and Saints will be the 10th Super Bowl played in Miami. Fans from New Orleans might not want to hear it but South Beach has been all about the ?chalk.? Favorites have won eight of the nine games straight up, yet the lone upset was the biggest of all-time when New York stunned Baltimore 16-7 in the third installment of the big game as an 18-point underdog.

SUPER BOWL HISTORY in MIAMI
Superbowl Year Winner Winner's Line Loser Total
XLI 2007 Indianapolis Colts 29 -7 Chicago Bears 17 47, UNDER
XXXIII 1999 Denver Broncos 34 -7.5 Atlanta Falcons 19 52.5, OVER
XXIX 1995 San Francisco 49ers 49 -18.5 San Diego Chargers 26 53.5, OVER
XXIII 1989 San Francisco 49ers 20 -7 Cincinnati Bengals 16 48, UNDER
XIII 1979 Pittsburgh Steelers 35 -3.5 Dallas Cowboys 31 37, OVER
X 1976 Pittsburgh Steelers 21 -7 Dallas Cowboys 17 36, OVER
V 1971 Baltimore Colts 16 -2.5 Dallas Cowboys 13 36, UNDER
III 1969 New York Jets 16 +18 Baltimore Colts 7 40, UNDER
II 1968 Green Bay Packers 33 -13.5 Oakland Raiders 14 43, OVER

As far as point-spread numbers go, the favorites haven?t had much trouble covering as well, posting a 6-3 mark versus the spread. Some gamblers may?ve earned a push or a win in 1979, when the Steelers stopped the Cowboys 35-31 as 3 ?-point favorites in Super Bowl XIII. The number on the game opened at 1 ? points and was bet up to 5 at some shops, and all the books in Las Vegas got middled. This big game is often referred to as Black Sunday in the gaming industry since the Sportsbooks lost quite a chunk.

The ?over? has gone 5-4 in the nine games played in Miami but could easily be 6-3 if the Colts and Bears didn?t play in a rainstorm three years ago in Super Bowl XLI. Indy defeated Chicago 29-17 and the closing number was 47.

Sunshine State

Including the nine aforementioned games played in Miami, this will be the 15th Super Bowl played in the state of Florida. Four games have been played in Tampa Bay, and the underdog has gone 2-2 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in those contests, which includes Pittsburgh?s 27-23 victory over Arizona last year.

Super Bowl XXXIX was played in Jacksonville, which saw New England capture its third championship with a 24-21 victory over Philadelphia. The Eagles covered the number as seven-point underdogs and the combined 45 points slid ?under? the closing number of 46 ?.

AFC vs. NFC

The NFC holds a 22-21 straight up edge over the AFC and if you look at the past dozen Super Bowls, the AFC has gone 8-4 straight up. However, they?ve only posted a 5-5-2 mark against the number over this run. The largest margin of victory for the AFC during that stretch was 27 points in Super Bowl XXXV, when Baltimore crushed the N.Y. Giants 34-7 as a three-point favorite from Tampa.

Double-digit victories happen often in the big game, 28 times to be exact. The NFC has won an eye opening 17 of its 22 Super Bowl?s by 10-plus points with its most impressive win coming in 1990 after San Francisco crushed Denver 55-10 for an easy 45-point victory in SBXXIV.

Over vs. Under

Whether you fancy the ?over? or the ?under?, you really have no room to complain. The ?under? holds a slight 22-21 edge through the first 43 finales, with no total being listed on the first installment. The ?under? was on a 4-0 run before the Steelers and Cardinals busted up that trend with a 50-point burst last year.

Sticking with the number 50, this year?s total is listed at 56 and could rise even higher by kickoff. According to the past history this will be the eighth Super Bowl that has an ?over/under? listed at 50 or higher. In those seven games, the ?under? has gone 4-3. However two of the seven were played in Miami and both those games went ?over? the number, including the highest-scoring Super Bowl (XXIX) of all-time when the 49ers fittingly routed the Chargers 49-26.

Parlay Combinations

Some might think it?s hard enough to pick the winner in any sport, but try nailing both the side and the total could be viewed as a shot in the dark. Normally, you would expect the books to clean up on the public?s guessing game. However, the combination of ?favorite/over? has occurred in 14 of the 43 Super Bowl games with a listed side and total. That?s an incredible 33 percent for laying the wood in a shootout, which is the highest of all four possible outcomes. The ?underdog/under? takes second place, showing up on 12 different occasions. The two least likely combinations of the four have been the ?favorite/under? and ?underdog/over'. To no surprise, the majority of players at Sportsbook.com have already started to load up on the Colts-Over combination.

Lumi · Feb 1, 2010

SUPER BOWL XLIV - BETTORS PUT FAITH, CASH IN COLTS' CORNER

SUPER BOWL XLIV - BETTORS PUT FAITH, CASH IN COLTS' CORNER

SUPER BOWL XLIV - BETTORS PUT FAITH, CASH IN COLTS' CORNER

MATT YOUMANS: SUPER BOWL XLIV - BETTORS PUT FAITH, CASH IN COLTS' CORNER

Bettors put faith, cash in Colts' corner
Throw out the two games the Indianapolis Colts tanked, a self-sabotage scenario which threatened the integrity of the NFL, and Peyton Manning is 16-0 as a starting quarterback this season.

Manning has won every game the Colts didn't try to lose. In reality, he has a perfect record.

The New Orleans Saints played their best football before December, and they dropped two games in which quarterback Drew Brees played all four quarters.

The Super Bowl is always the most overanalyzed event in sports. On the surface, this one favors the Colts. Dig deeper into the details, and it still favors the Colts. Professional gambler Steve Fezzik cast a sharp eye on both teams and came to a conclusion.

"I like the Colts in the game," Fezzik said. "One team is fat, drunk and happy to be in the Super Bowl."

The happy-to-be-here team would be the Saints. This game, Fezzik said, is about Manning, Dallas Clark, Reggie Wayne and the Colts "cementing their legacy" among the elite.

Already considered one of the all-time great quarterbacks, Manning knows he needs to take that next step. With two Super Bowl wins on his resume, Manning would leap into the class of untouchables.

There is a sense this is the Colts' year, and the bettors are backing up that opinion. Indianapolis is a 51/2-point favorite over New Orleans in Sunday's game at Miami. The line opened 31/2, and it's 6 at a few sports books today.

Las Vegas books are seeing about a 3-to-1 ratio of betting tickets on the Colts, and industry insiders are forecasting more point-spread inflation.

"I really think we're going to see a line that reaches 7 before the game. I didn't think that 48 hours ago, but I do now," Jimmy Vaccaro, director of operations for Lucky's sports books, said Sunday night. "I think this game is going to close 6 or higher."

One way to bet this Super Bowl is to take both sides, playing Indianapolis on the money line, which means laying minus-210 ($210 to win $100) on the Colts to win straight up, and playing New Orleans plus the points at the highest number.

"What I'm hoping is the money line (on Indianapolis) will drop," Fezzik said. "Even though I like the Colts, if I can get the Saints plus-7 and lay minus-120, I certainly would fire on the Saints."

Using that strategy, there is a wide window to win both wagers if the final score falls in the middle.

With the books taking a high volume of Colts money at point spreads of 31/2, 4, 41/2, 5 and 51/2 -- and Saints money coming back at plus-6, 61/2 and possibly 7 -- the books will be exposed and fearing worst-case scenarios.

"I don't want too many dangerous numbers," Vaccaro said. "We're leaving too many wide-open numbers for a side and a middle here. The worst thing for the books would be a 23-17 Colts final.

"You never say it's a one-way attack in a game like this because nobody can see that far into the future. But I think you'll see an unconventional Super Bowl."

The bottom line: If you like the Colts to win, bet them straight up on the money line. If you prefer the Saints, wait for the line to creep a little higher and take the points. Or bet it both ways.

According to reliable sources, the most respected sports bettor in Las Vegas bet $200,000 to win $100,000 on the Colts at a Strip property last week.

New Orleans has an opportunistic defense and a quarterback in Brees who is capable of outgunning Manning. Indianapolis' top pass rusher, Dwight Freeney, is hobbled and his status is questionable. It can be argued the Saints' Sean Payton is the sharper of the two coaches.

A decent case can be made for the underdog.

But the Saints beat only one playoff team on the road, and that was Philadelphia in Week 2, when Donovan McNabb was out. The Saints also lost a home game to lowly Tampa Bay on Dec. 27, and needed a series of breaks to beat Minnesota in the NFC Championship Game.

"I like the Colts because when I break down the road games, the Saints played a very soft road schedule, and they really got lucky in many ways," Fezzik said. "What is particularly troubling to me is they lost that game to Tampa Bay. And we all saw the Vikings outplay them."

Fezzik has a wealth of advice on how to wager on the propositions, including, "Don't bet the needle-in-the-haystack props."

That means shy away from bets such as the player to score the first touchdown. Clark, the Colts' tight end, and top wideout Wayne are each offered at 7-1 odds.

I would rather bet on Brees to pass for more yards in the second half (minus-140) than the first half.

Indianapolis' strategy to rest Manning, Clark, Wayne and other starters -- resulting in late-season losses to the New York Jets and Buffalo -- did not backfire. It just happened to work because the Colts got to face the AFC's lowest-seeded teams, Baltimore and the Jets, in the postseason.

"The fact the Colts were able to tank against the Jets and get to play the Jets again in the playoffs, that was very fortuitous," Fezzik said.

Manning did not want to tank those two games. But he should get what he needs -- a second Super Bowl victory -- and the majority of bettors are banking on it.

Lumi · Feb 3, 2010

4 Key Trends for SBXLIV

4 Key Trends for SBXLIV

4 Key Trends for SBXLIV

Keeping an eye on some crucial trends can be one of the most effective ways for sports gamblers to make profits come Super Bowl 44. Teams play and react to certain scenarios with shocking consistency, so when you know what to look for, it can help give you the edge you need when it comes to profitable Super Bowl betting.

Using those trends to craft a solid argument for a particular wager, though, can be a challenge. That?s the reason I will be analyzing the two most significant trends regarding both the New Orleans Saints and the Indianapolis Colts in this article.

Which team should gamblers wager on in Super Bowl XLIV? A trend analysis will help them make that decision.

Four Significant Trends for Super Bowl XLIV

New Orleans Saints Trends

The New Orleans Saints are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on grass - - This trend is very misleading because the New Orleans Saints simply didn?t play a lot of games on grass during the regular season. One of the games they did play on grass was against the Miami Dolphins in Miami, the site of Super Bowl XLIV. Not only was the Miami game a cover ATS, but it was also a game where the Saints showed that they were good enough to come back from a deficit. The Saints were down 24 to 3 before rallying in the second half to win 46 to 34.

This is big because many turf teams seem to struggle on the surface change. The Saints have won a significant, and hard fought, game on Miami?s grass at the Sun Life Stadium, a site they?ll no doubt have to dig deep again to come out victorious. If you?re leaning towards New Orleans, take comfort in the fact they are able to run their high powered offense on a natural field.

Get in on the action now bet on Super Bowl 44 > > SIGN UP HERE

The Saints are 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game - - This trend is misleading and one that you?ll want to disregard when making a bet. When you dig deeper, you?ll see that their ATS record after getting torched the week before is not because D steps it up the next game.

The Saints gave up 439 yards to the Dallas Cowboys in their first loss of the season. A week later against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Saints gave up 439 yards again. A week after that the Saints gave up 327 yards, which looks like an improvement initially, but in reality of the 327 yards the Saints gave up, 178 came on the ground and the Saints lost the game.

A trend that IS important, is that New Orleans has covered after both of their bye weeks this season. The important thing to note is that the Saints defense dominated two very good offensive teams after those bye weeks. The Saints obliterated the then undefeated New York Giants 48 to 27 as 3 ? point favorites after their regular season bye. They then thrashed the Arizona Cardinals 45 to 14 as 7 point favorites after skipping the NFC Wildcard Round.

That?s something to remember about the New Orleans Saints but what about the Indianapolis Colts?

Indianapolis Colts Trends

** There are a lot of positive trends regarding the Colts going into this game.

The Indianapolis Colts are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games on grass - -

Guess what gamblers? Indianapolis is great on everything! It doesn?t matter if the Indianapolis Colts play on grass or turf. They cover against the super bowl 44 spread. The Colts have gone 10-5-1 ATS so far this season. With one game to play, Indy is assured of a winning ATS record for this season. They?re just a good team that odds makers and gamblers have been leery about betting all season long. What this means is that the fact the Saints and Colts are both good on grass, so neither teams gains a betting advantage because of the surface.

The Colts cover spreads. But do they cover spreads when they are big favorites? Maybe. Analyzing the trend below will certainly help us answer that question.

The Colts are 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorites of between 3 ? to 10 points - - This is another great looking trend but it?s another trend that gamblers need to take a closer look at. The thing that jumps out to me is how many numbers are between 3 ? to 10. There?s a 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 between 3 ? to 10. That?s 6 numbers. To me, 6 numbers are just too many to make this trend significant.

What?s a more significant trend is the fact that the Colts are 6 and 3 ATS out of 9 games where they were favored by 5 ?, the betting line in the Super Bowl, to 14 points. That?s a much more significant trend than 5 and 0 ATS between 3 ? to 10 points.

The trend to remember about the Saints is that they are exceptional after a bye week. The trend to remember about the Colts is that they are terrific ATS when they are big favorites.

I put more weight in the fact that the Saints are able to regroup and develop a solid game plan specific to the team they are facing. That speaks volumes about the coaching staff. Having a solid game plan is the most crucial part to any game and I think the Saints will come in the better prepared team.

My Super Bowl 44 pick according to the trend analysis will be on the New Orleans Saints at +5 ?.

Lumi · Feb 3, 2010

Wagers to Watch

Wagers to Watch

Wagers to Watch

It?s February. That might not sound like a big deal from an online sports gambling perspective, but between the Super Bowl and the Winter Olympics, it?s going to be a very busy month indeed. Let?s get our weekly betting preview off on the right foot with a look at the Big Game itself.
1. Saints vs. Colts (Sunday, 6:25 p.m.)

Super Bowl XLIV is only days away. So far, the Colts (16-2 SU, 12-5-1 ATS) have remained relatively stable as 6-point favorites (-115) with a total of 56.5 points. The Saints (15-3 SU, 9-9 ATS) have a lot of public support, but they were also outplayed by Minnesota in the NFC title game. This is the first trip to the Super Bowl for New Orleans. The Colts have been here before; they also have a stellar postseason pedigree, mashing the NFL odds at 6-2 ATS in their last eight playoff appearances. But it looks like star DE Dwight Freeney (13.5 sacks) could miss this game for Indianapolis with torn ligaments in his right ankle.

2. Nuggets at Lakers (Friday, 10:30 p.m.)

The top two clubs in the Western Conference will square off at Staples Center, although we?re not entirely sure whether this must-see game on ESPN will have its full complement of star power. Carmelo Anthony (31.4 points, 6.9 rebounds per 40 minutes) has missed the last four games with a sprained ankle, but Denver won three of those games to improve to 32-15 SU and 22-23-2 ATS. Anthony was expected to return to action sometime this week, possibly Monday against Sacramento. The Lakers (37-11 SU, 22-24-2 ATS) have won their last four games at 3-0-1 ATS and are coming off a 90-89 triumph at the Garden over the hated Celtics (+1).

3. Villanova at Georgetown (Saturday, 12:00 p.m.)

The Big East continues to roll out the marquee matchups. Villanova leads the conference at 19-1 and a very tasty 15-4 ATS; Georgetown is hanging tough at 16-4 SU and 9-7 ATS. These same two teams met January 17 at the Wachovia Center, with the Wildcats (-4.5) getting the win and the cover on an 82-77 final. The rematch is in Washington, D.C., where the Hoyas are 10-1 SU and 4-4 ATS this year. That includes a critical 89-77 win over Duke (-2) to help wash out the taste of last week?s embarrassing 73-56 loss at Syracuse (-5.5).

4. Devils at Maple Leafs (Tuesday, 7:00 p.m.)

The Maple Leafs always draw action from their unwavering fan base, but there will be a special focus on Tuesday?s contest after GM Brian Burke went to the phone lines and acquired both defenseman Dion Phaneuf (22 points in 55 games) and goaltender Jean-Sebastien Giguere (.900 save percentage). These trades will test Toronto?s questionable depth; Matt Stajan (41 points in 55 games) is one of four players headed to Calgary, while underperforming Jason Blake (26 points in 56 games) joins washout goalie Vesa Toskala (.874 SV%) on the plane ride to Anaheim. The OVER was 28-26 for Toronto before the trades were made. The UNDER should get some more play with Phaneuf joining the Leafs; the UNDER is also 32-18 for the Atlantic-leading Devils.

5. Randy Couture vs. Mark Coleman, UFC 109 - Updated Odds

This is old school. Couture (age 46) and Coleman (age 45) were supposed to compete 12 years ago at UFC 17, but Couture was injured and unable to perform. Since then, ?The Natural? has won both the Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight titles on multiple occasions, while Coleman moved on to PRIDE and enjoyed mixed success in Japan. He?s 1-1 since the merger, losing to Mauricio ?Shogun? Rua before beating up on Stephan Bonnar at UFC 100. Couture is 1-1 since losing the Heavyweight strap to Brock Lesnar at UFC 91.

Honorable Mentions

NBA: Orlando at Boston (Sunday, 2:30 p.m.)
NCAAB: Georgia Tech at Duke (Thursday, 7:00 p.m.)
NHL: Pittsburgh at Montreal (Saturday, 2:00 p.m.)
Soccer: Chelsea at Hull City (Tuesday, 2:45 p.m.)
MMA: Matt Serra vs. Frank Trigg, UFC 109 (PPV card begins Saturday, 10:00 p.m.)

Lumi · Feb 4, 2010

Super Bowl Betting Talk

Super Bowl Betting Talk

Super Bowl Betting Talk

The NFL is cranking out the hype machine as only they can for Super Bowl week. The idea of exhaling for a week after the conference championship games only serves to give the consumer a week to breath before being bombarded on all fronts.

By Saturday, we?ll know what Dwight Freeney was eating and drinking to help his injured ankle and speculation will continue to mount as to what impact this will have on New Orleans offense. Personally, I like the old Dave Wannstedt (former Bears and Dolphins coach) approach to injuries, ?He?s got an ankle?.

Super Bowl bettors have immediately stepped in and responded to stories, moving the Saints from +5.5 point underdogs to +5 and even a few sportsbooks are reporting +4.5 with decent action.

Here is what the hardest working man in sports betting journalism (self proclaimed) found concerning wagering on SB XLIV.

Indianapolis is of course the favorite and AFC teams are 7-5-2 ATS the previous 14 contests, and 19-22-2 ATS all time. With the Colts favored, the club giving the points is 2-6 ATS since 2002.

When a team is favored by three to six points, the chalk is 8-2 ATS.
When the total has been 50 and over, the UNDER is 4-3 including 3-1 in last four. (For history buffs, the total was 50 or higher only once in first 27 Super Bowls)

When the game is on grass like this year?s in Miami, the OVER is 17-9.
Teams leading at halftime are 13-1 ATS in last 15 matchups (SB XXXIX was tied); however are 5-9 ATS against the second half line.

In the early years of Super Bowl history, teams frequently returned almost immediately to play again. Teams that made Super Bowl appearance and played again within three years were 9-3 SU and ATS. That led to the common belief of Big Game experience is key, however that has become far from the truth. Since 1984, teams making a second appearance in three year window are 7-11 SU and dismal 5-13 ATS, including 1-7 ATS last the last 16 years.

Teams playing in their very first Super Bowl against opponent with previous experience are 6-11 ATS.

For the excitement this game generates, only four encounters have seen the line under a touchdown since 1994. All time, underdogs are 6-10 against the spread when this occurs.

This is the 10th Super Bowl played in Miami and the favorite is 6-3 ATS.

Lumi · Feb 4, 2010

Key Performance Information

NEW ORLEANS

AS AN UNDERDOG OF 3.5 TO 9.5 PTS
This season
SU: 0-1 | ATS: 0-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 1-4 | ATS: 3-2 Since 1993
SU: 30-57 | ATS: 48-37
IN ALL GAMES
This season
SU: 15-3 | ATS: 9-9 Last 3 seaons
SU: 30-20 | ATS: 25-24 Since 1993
SU: 140-156 | ATS: 142-148
IN ALL LINED GAMES
This season
SU: 15-3 | ATS: 9-9 Last 3 seaons
SU: 30-20 | ATS: 25-24 Since 1993
SU: 140-156 | ATS: 142-148
AS AN UNDERDOG
This season
SU: 0-1 | ATS: 0-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 3-11 | ATS: 5-8 Since 1993
SU: 55-104 | ATS: 79-75
IN ALL GAMES WHERE THE TOTAL IS GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 49.5
This season
SU: 10-1 | ATS: 5-6 Last 3 seaons
SU: 15-6 | ATS: 11-9 Since 1993
SU: 18-13 | ATS: 14-16
WHEN PLAYING WITH 2 WEEKS OR MORE OF REST
This season
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 1-1 | ATS: 1-1 Since 1993
SU: 8-10 | ATS: 9-9
AGAINST AFC SOUTH DIVISION OPPONENTS
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 1-3 | ATS: 1-3 Since 1993
SU: 2-6 | ATS: 3-5
IN GAMES PLAYED ON A GRASS FIELD
This season
SU: 4-1 | ATS: 3-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 9-9 | ATS: 10-8 Since 1993
SU: 43-54 | ATS: 53-42
IN GAMES PLAYED ON A NEUTRAL FIELD
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0 Since 1993
SU: 1-0 | ATS: 1-0
IN NON-CONFERENCE GAMES
This season
SU: 4-0 | ATS: 4-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 8-4 | ATS: 9-3 Since 1993
SU: 34-39 | ATS: 38-33
IN PLAYOFF GAMES
This season
SU: 2-0 | ATS: 1-1 Last 3 seaons
SU: 2-0 | ATS: 1-1 Since 1993
SU: 4-3 | ATS: 2-5
IN THE SUPER BOWL
This season
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Last 3 seaons
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0 Since 1993
SU: 0-0 | ATS: 0-0
AFTER 2 OR MORE CONSECUTIVE WINS
This season
SU: 11-1 | ATS: 6-6 Last 3 seaons
SU: 13-4 | ATS: 9-8 Since 1993
SU: 33-27 | ATS: 30-30
WHEN PLAYING AGAINST A TEAM WITH A WINNING RECORD
This season
SU: 6-1 | ATS: 4-3 Last 3 seaons
SU: 10-7 | ATS: 9-7 Since 1993
SU: 35-66 | ATS: 45-53
WHEN PLAYING AGAINST A TEAM WITH A WINNING RECORD IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE SEASON
This season
SU: 3-1 | ATS: 2-2 Last 3 seaons
SU: 4-6 | ATS: 4-5 Since 1993
SU: 20-44 | ATS: 26-37

Lumi · Feb 4, 2010

Lumi · Feb 4, 2010

Past Super Bowl Handicapping Trends & Stats

Past Super Bowl Handicapping Trends & Stats

Past Super Bowl Handicapping Trends & Stats

Miami hosts this year?s Super Bowl XLIV matchup between New Orleans and Indianapolis, and being as how the Colts? Super Bowl win in the same city three years ago was marred by quagmire-like conditions, a game that went under the total, it would be a wise move to check the forecasts on Sunday morning before hitting the confirm button on you wagers. Ironically, the pointspread for that game (Colts -6.5 over Bears) is similar to this year?s contest (Colts -5.5 over Saints), despite the fact that again, the NFC team boasts better all-around stats from the season. Does that mean we should expect a repeat of that game, or is New Orleans fully capable of pulling the upset? While we?re thinking of it, is there anything else from past Super Bowl action that can be used to handicap this year?s game? Let?s dig through the history of the Super Bowl and see what we can come up with.

Before beginning, one word of caution always has to accompany an article surrounding Super Bowl handicapping, and that is to remember that it is simply one game, the singular most wagered event in all of sports, and thus heavily weighted by oddsmakers to attract public action. How else could one explain that Indy is the favorite of 5.5-points, despite having a lesser scoring differential against a weaker schedule? Let?s face it, the line was initially set up at Indy -4 because of the ?Peyton Manning Factor?, and has been bet upward since due to bettors? fascination with him. Still, being as how it is just one game, I caution you to wager wisely, as no one game should outweigh a season?s worth of hard work or a springtime of gambling debt.

The Super Bowl game line is set up differently than one in the regular season, simply because of the vast number of amateurs partaking in the betting festivities for perhaps their only time all year. It?s kind of like going to church on Christmas, with the priest adjusting his message for the rare visitors. In the same way, oddsmakers adjust their line-setting policies. In other words, a ?square? line typically becomes even more square. If you do a search on ?NFL Power Ratings? currently, you?ll find that most sites indicate the line for this year?s game should be between Indy -2 and New Orleans -2. The current line is much higher. With so much money on the line for the Super Bowl, this may be the one game each year where the HOUSE truly is looking for balanced action rather than taking a side. That is the reason for the inflated line.

The other challenge that faces bettors is that the Super Bowl offers some variation from the normal handicapping routine. Two weeks of rest, a neutral field, and hundreds of available proposition bets, all of which can make for a sometime overwhelming task of handicapping. If you choose to wager on numerous different options, be prepared to find yourself conflicted near the end of the game. As always, it does pay off to do your homework.

Hopefully, with everything we?re offering for Sunday?s New Orleans-Indianapolis showdown, you will at least go into the betting process prepared. Part of that preparation should always involve looking at the history of the game. That is what I?m here to do now, as I look back at 43 years of Super Bowl action, uncovering the stats, trends, and systems you?ll need to make educated selections.

Super Bowl Stat Angles
Because of the extra week of preparation and the neutral field environment, neither team in a Super Bowl game will have any artificial advantages. Both are quality teams with exceptional coaching staffs, so they will be prepared to play. As was proven two years ago in the Giants mega-upset of the Patriots, there is no such thing as a physical mismatch in the Super Bowl. What I?m getting at is that winning games of this magnitude comes down to execution. Some teams might show up planning to pull a few gimmicks, but they won?t be able to do so for the full 60 minutes. The eventual winner is the team that best controls the line of scrimmage, makes the most big plays, and avoids catastrophic mistakes like turning the ball over. In past Super Bowls, the team that accomplished these goals has nearly always came out on top. Those familiar with the StatFox FoxSheets know that these factors figure prominently in our computerized game projections.

Rushing yards, passing yards per attempt, turnovers, and time of possession are four key statistical categories that I like to use to determine their relationship to winning, both SU & ATS. The following trends will demonstrate the importance of these statistics.

Teams that rush for more yards in the Super Bowl are 35-8 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).

Teams that average more passing yards per attempt in the NFL title game are 38-5 SU & 32-8-3 ATS (80%).

In the 42 previous Super Bowls, the team that has more turnovers has won just four times SU and six times ATS (85%). Amazingly, the last three times it happened straight up were the Steelers? last three world championships.

Teams that win the time of possession battle are 31-12 SU & 30-10-3 ATS (75%).

Teams that hold an edge in at least three of these four key statistical categories are 36-2 SU & 32-5-1 ATS (86%). In ?09, Arizona ran for more yards, turned the ball over fewer times, and possessed the ball longer than Pittsburgh to cover the pointspread, yet lost on the scoreboard.

Teams that win all four categories are 23-0 SU & 21-1-1 ATS. The only ATS loss occurred in Super Bowl XXXIX in Philadelphia?s ATS win versus the Patriots.

Past Super Bowl Trends and Systems
Last year I cited the 2006 Super Bowl run by Pittsburgh as the game that dramatically changed the route to becoming a champion in the NFL. That was the first time a #6 seed emerged to win the Lombardi Trophy. Since then we have seen wildcard teams Indianapolis & the Giants win titles. In last year?s game, we had a team that won just nine games in the regular season come within seconds of winning the Super Bowl. While the Cardinals lost in heartbreaking fashion, they still managed to cover the pointspread, again defying all that we had come to learn about Super Bowl handicapping prior to ?06. This has naturally made it difficult on handicappers who rely on such things as strength ratings, and past templates that have demonstrated the best teams excelling when it mattered most, the playoffs. Well, thankfully, order has been restored to the NFL playoff system, as two #1 seeds will be playing for all the marbles on Sunday, for the first time in 16 years.

With that cautionary note out of the way, here are some historical Super Bowl trends, stats, and other tidbits that you can either use to handicap Sunday?s game, or at the very least, offer up at your parties to show off in front of game-watching friends. While on that subject, you can start off by ?wow-ing? your company with this bit of interesting Super Bowl history: In the last nine Super Bowl games, there have been NINE different NFC representatives, but just four from the AFC. Enjoy the trends, where appropriate I will give the most recent game trend.

ATS and Money Line Trends

Favorites in the Super Bowl are 30-13 SU and own an ATS mark of 21-19-3 (52.5%). However, over the past eight years, the underdog owns a 6-2 ATS (75.0%) edge. The only two favorites to win and cover in that span were Indy in ?07 and Pittsburgh in ?06.

Favorites of a touchdown or more are 3-2 SU but 0-4-1 ATS (0%) since the millennium. It doesn?t appear that this year?s line will reach that high, but be sure to follow throughout the week.

The straight up winner is 34-6-3 ATS (85%) in the 43 previous Super Bowls, but just 3-3 ATS the past six years.

The NFC holds a 22-21 SU and 22-18-3 (55%) ATS edge all time, and is on a 2-5 SU but 5-2 ATS run since Tampa Bay?s win over Oakland in ?03.

#1 seeds from the NFC are on a 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS slide since 2001 in the Super Bowl.

The team that is the higher, or better, playoff seed is just 1-11-2 ATS (8.3%) in the last 14 Super Bowl games! This would be our golden nugget except for the fact that both Indianapolis and New Orleans were #1 seeds out of their respective conferences.

The team with the better record going in to the game is 28-12 SU. (note: three times the teams had identical won-loss marks)

Teams playing in their first Super Bowl against an experienced club are 5-2-1 ATS in their L8.

In terms of scoring, the average winning score is 30.1 PPG, with the average losing score being 15.4 PPG, an average winning margin 14.7 PPG. The Giants of 2008 became the first team in 33 years to win the Super Bowl without hitting the 20-point mark.

There have been 17 previous Super Bowl teams that have failed to reach the 14-point mark. Their record?0-17 SU & ATS (0%).

Over/Under Trends

The most important point to note about the total for this year?s Super Bowl, set at 56.5 at presstime, is the HIGHEST EVER in the history of the game.

Overall, in the 25 Super Bowl games that have had totals, the OVER is 15-9-1.

There have been 45.4 PPG scored in the Super Bowl on average, however, over the last five years, that figure is just 40.6. In fact, last year?s game snapped a string of four straight UNDER?s, and was the highest scoring Super Bowl since ?04, despite having the lowest total.

The last five Super Bowl games that have had a posted total of 47 or higher have gone UNDER.

The ?09 Super Bowl was one of only 10 in history that saw both teams reach the 20-point mark. All seven that had totals were OVER?s.

The competiveness of the game has dictated the totals result historically. In the nine Super Bowl games that went UNDER the total, the average victory margin was 7.8 PPG. In the 15 OVER games, the average margin was a whopping 21.5 PPG. However, a caveat, the last two OVER games (?04 & ?09) were decided by 3 & 4 points.

NFL Playoff Statistical Analysis
In continuation of the series I started a few weeks back, analyzing some statistical angles by round in the playoffs, here are some trends and the qualifying play for this Sunday?s game based upon teams? stats headed into the big game. If the stat isn?t listed here, there wasn?t any significant trend forming.

Teams with the edge against the line on the StatFox Outplay Factor Rating have lost four straight games against the spread.
- Qualifier for ?10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS

The team with the better won-lost record headed into the Super Bowl is on a 4-9-2 ATS (31%) slide.
- Qualifiers for ?10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS

The team that averages more points per game offensively headed into the Super Bowl is just 1-8-1 ATS (10%) over the last decade.
- Qualifier for ?10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS

The team that converts a better percentage of 3rd down attempts headed into the Super Bowl is just 2-7-1 ATS (20%) in the L10 years.
- Qualifier for ?10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS

The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per rushing attempt on offense is 9-5-2 ATS (64%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ?10 SB: On NEW ORLEANS

The Super Bowl team that averages more yards per passing attempt on offense is just 4-8-2 ATS (64%) in the L14 games.
- Qualifier for ?10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS

The team with the edge in offensive yards per point is on a 2-6 ATS (25%) slide in the L8 Super Bowl games.
- Qualifier for ?10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS

The team with the better turnover differential heading into the Super Bowl is 0-6 ATS (0%) over the L6 years.
- Qualifier for ?10 SB: Against NEW ORLEANS

The Super Bowl team that allows yards per rushing attempt on defense is 3-8-2 ATS (27%) in the L16 games.
- Qualifier for ?10 SB: Against INDIANAPOLIS

If you were counting, that was five Against New Orleans, and four either Against Indianapolis or On the Saints. Is that a hint of what?s to come?

Lumi · Feb 4, 2010

NFL | (101) NEW ORLEANS @ (102) INDIANAPOLIS | 02/07/2010 6:25 PM
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using the money line in All games as a favorite
The record is 15 Wins and 1 Losses this season (+13.50 units)
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NFL | (101) NEW ORLEANS @ (102) INDIANAPOLIS | 02/07/2010 6:25 PM
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using the money line in All games as a favorite
The record is 15 Wins and 1 Losses this season (+13.50 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL | (101) NEW ORLEANS @ (102) INDIANAPOLIS | 02/07/2010 6:25 PM
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using the money line in All games as a favorite
The record is 15 Wins and 1 Losses this season (+13.50 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL | (101) NEW ORLEANS @ (102) INDIANAPOLIS | 02/07/2010 6:25 PM
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using a teaser in All games in games where the 6 point teaser line is +0.5 to -5.5
The record is 24 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+24.00 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL | (101) NEW ORLEANS @ (102) INDIANAPOLIS | 02/07/2010 6:25 PM
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using a teaser in All games in games where the 6 point teaser line is +0.5 to -5.5
The record is 24 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+24.00 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL | (101) NEW ORLEANS @ (102) INDIANAPOLIS | 02/07/2010 6:25 PM
Play ON INDIANAPOLIS using a teaser in All games in games where the 6 point teaser line is +0.5 to -5.5
The record is 24 Wins and 0 Losses for the last three seasons (+24.00 units)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NFL | (101) NEW ORLEANS @ (102) INDIANAPOLIS | 02/07/2010 6:25 PM
Play ON NEW ORLEANS against the spread in All games in non-conference games
The record is 8 Wins and 0 Losses for the last two seasons (+8.00 units)

Lumi · Feb 4, 2010

Is Super Bowl Pointspread Correct?

Is Super Bowl Pointspread Correct?

Is Super Bowl Pointspread Correct?

Any coach past or present will tell you the game of football is about two things, blocking and tackling. While that is absolutely true in its simplest form, Super Bowl XLIV is completely different from its past with the possible exception of just a handful of contests for the Lombardi Trophy. Start with the total of this Roman numeral confrontation. The total of 56.5 is the highest ever, surpassing the Giants and New England figure of 54 points two years ago. This number could well come down by game time this Sunday; nevertheless it stands a very good chance of being the largest total ever.

Why would this be, the NFL rules are geared toward offenses to score points. The two best quarterbacks this season are facing off in the Super Bowl and each organization has drafted in a manner to assure their pigskin passers have the necessary weapons to maximize their abilities and put pressure on defenses. This season, Indianapolis has averaged 38 passes per game and New Orleans averaged 34 passes per contest. For those old enough to remember, Super Bowl XII had the unbeaten Miami Dolphins as surprisingly one-point underdogs to George Allen?s ?Over the hill gang? Washington Redskins. In one of the duller Super Bowl?s, the Dolphins completed the still one and only undefeated season, winning 14-7. In the contest, Hall of Fame quarterback Bob Griese was 8 for 11 passing, for all of 88 yards. Figure Peyton Manning and Drew Brees to have the attempts and yardage surpassed that Griese threw for on that day sometime relatively early in the second quarter.

After the Colts solved the Jets defense in winning the AFC Championship, most educated oddsmakers were thinking Indianapolis as three-point favorite against the winner of the NFC contest. However, since New Orleans was dominated statistically in their matchup by Minnesota, most thought 3.5 or four points would draw relatively divided action. With roughly 15-20 percent of the dollars wagered on the side of the Super Bowl by this past Sunday, the vast majority of the action had been on Indy, moving them to -5.5 points , but the Dwight Freeney news shoved to number back down to -4.5 or 5. In breaking down the two teams, is the number accurate?

Peyton Manning vs New Orleans pass defense

On paper this looks like the biggest mismatch since Conan O?Brien taking on NBC. Manning has arguably been the best quarterback in football the last eight years, except when Tom Brady had a better New England club. The Colts have averaged 283 yards passing against teams that allowed 218, that?s almost a 30 percent difference vs. any defense they have taken on this year. Manning makes uncommon sight adjustments to blitzes and gets rid of the ball quickly. New Orleans on the other hand can be riddled by opposing teams via the pass. Take away games this season in which the Saints faced teams who preferred to run like Carolina, Detroit, Buffalo, Miami and the Jets, and the New Orleans secondary surrendered 277.6 yards in the 12 other contests or roughly what the Colts totaled all season. Granted, some the yardage allowed was after New Orleans had built big leads in several early games, but there were a number of late season contests in which they were also torched.

Nobody in football makes better in-game adjustments than Manning and his offensive coordinator Tom Moore and nobody this season did a better job in stopping opposing teams by forcing turnovers than the Saints. Defensive coordinator Greg Williams is on record as saying how they attacked Brett Favre is similar to how they want to get after Manning. The Jets had Darrelle Revis to at least take away Reggie Wayne and they did a good job in limiting Dallas Clark. It does not appear Manning will face those same obstacles against Saints secondary.

Spread Differential ? Indianapolis -7

Drew Brees vs Indianapolis pass defense

Brees might not have All-Pro type receivers like Manning has in Wayne and Clark; however he has a stable full any Kentucky thoroughbred barn would be proud of. No team in professional football had a more diverse passing attack than New Orleans. The Saints had seven different players catch 35 balls or more during the regular season. Coach Sean Payton has set up offense very much like a basketball team that has exceptional depth and has the skill to score points. Only Manning has the ability to scan the field as quickly to find an open receiver as Brees, who also has keen understanding of taking what the offense gives as well as wanting to dictate the tempo to keep the defense guessing. The Colts are better equipped to limit or contain the New Orleans passing game. Bookend defensive ends Freeney and Robert Mathis can bring a heap of trouble off the edges. Freeney in particular is going to demand a double team, unless his troubled ankle proves otherwise, as normal backup tackle Jermon Bushrod is not equipped to make this a solo project. Mathis? edge over right tackle Jon Stinchcomb isn?t as definitive; just the same the Colts DE is the better player. Antoine Beathea is an emerging star at safety for the Colts, with the rest of the secondary somewhat dependant on what happens up front.

Spread Differential ? New Orleans -3

Indianapolis running game vs. New Orleans front seven

For two teams in the Super Bowl, this is one area that is about as unusual as you will find. The Colts running game is reminiscent of Bill Walsh?s and Joe Montana?s first winning Super Bowl team from the 1982 season. The 49ers were a pure passing team and ran the ball just to give the defense something to preoccupy from time to time. The Indianapolis front office had not been impressed with Joseph Addai since they won the Super Bowl in 2006 season and drafted Donald Brown from Connecticut. Addai doesn?t hit the edges as well on the stretch plays, working better between the B-gaps and making cuts. Indy posts a laughable 3.5 yards per carry against teams that permitted 4.1. The offense line seldom gets a chance to go out and drive block, however does appear less potent in this aspect of the game from the Super Bowl team from three years ago. Beyond Sedrick Ellis, the Saints defense front absorbs more punishment than it creates. New Orleans gives up 4.6 yards per carry, since their linebackers lack extensive speed to quickly fill gaps. It would seem Indianapolis could do business here, but has shown no inclination to commit to the run, rushing over 100 yards twice on last 12 contests. Expect the Colts to be satisfied carrying the ball their usual 23 times and leave it to their MVP to close the deal.

Spread Differential ? Even

New Orleans running game vs Indianapolis front seven

Besides turnovers, if the Who Dats are going to upset the Colts, this is where it has to come from. Guards Carl Nicks, Jahri Evans and center Jonathan Goodwin must have special day opening up holes for Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush. Saints coach Payton needs to show restraint here and get physical upfront with the Colts. Gouging the Indianapolis defense for four to five yards a pop opens up tight end Jeremy Shockey and slot receiver Robert Meacham in the passing game. Payton may try the screen game, however few have had successful against linebackers Clint Session, Gary Brackett and safety Beathea, who can all run and are sure tacklers. Instead, as part of the running game, they should include trips (three receivers) to the short side of the field, with Bush standing behind them and sending him into motion to wide side of the field, hopefully drawing linebacker. This gets Bush in the open field for essentially a screen pass or comeback slant route underneath with blockers, more or less a run play in Saints offense.

Spread Differential ? New Orleans -1

Special Teams

Reggie Bush gives the Saints a home run hitter in returning punts, however the way to stop him is what Minnesota did, have the punter sacrifice a few yards to increase kick coverage and get right in his grill upon the catch. Indianapolis continues to spend little time in this area and is strictly run of the mill. Where the Colts have edge is at place-kicker. Matt Stover came in when Adam Vinateri was injured. The 42-year old Stover will be the oldest player ever participate in the Super Bowl and has 20 years experience, including being the Ravens kicker during the 2001 Super Bowl campaign. Stover?s range is limited to about 45-yards, especially outdoors and has made 80 percent (20 of 25) of field goals in his postseason career. Kicker Garrett Hartley is young enough (23) to conceivably be Stover?s son. Hartley has made 24 of 26 field goals in his two years, but the pressure is all together different on the game?s biggest stage. Plus, Hartley has kicked in a dome the last two seasons and realistically is untested, though his game winner over Minnesota was impressive.

Spread Differential ? Indianapolis -1

Coaching

It would seem these two coaches couldn?t be any more different with each facing unprecedented scrutiny for the first time. Jim Caldwell, to the chagrin of his team gave up 14-0 season and a chance for perfection to be in this position and it worked. Caldwell?s strength is in his beliefs and defensive. He altered the mechanics of the Colts defense, still playing a lot of Cover 2, but blitzed twice as much as his predecessor Tony Dungy. With young players at corner due to injury, he followed the Colts? ideologies of players are expected to step up and perform. Low key leader who trusts assistants and his team.

Sean Payton?s arrival into the NFL showed a fertile offensive mind who couldn?t devise enough trick plays and use them quickly enough. Like many great offensive teams, the coach and quarterback become one on various levels and Payton trusted Brees from the beginning. Payton took some lumps the last couple of seasons, which has brought about a new found maturity, giving his offense a chance to succeed on almost every play and toned down the risk taking. As opposed to Caldwell, he embraced the notion of a perfect season when his team was 13-0. He makes no bones about playing to his strength (offense) and turned the defense over this season to Gregg Williams. His biggest task this game is not letting his emotions affect his play calling.

Spread Differential -None

Intangibles

There have been a number of teams that have won their first Super Bowl without having been involved in this maniacal environment, but having the experience is certainly a plus. Teams? playing in this contest for the first time against experienced foe are desultory 6-11 ATS. Though players say they understand, sometimes its months later in reflection they realize they were satisfied to make the Big Game as opposed to truly desiring to win it. Payton and Brees have the heart of an assassin, thus their preparation and desire is predicated on going home champions. The city of New Orleans, with all that has happened once Hurricane Katrina made land, feels like it playing with house money and welcomes the idea of their football team playing for the city?s first championship, instead of craving it. The team had better listen to their coach and field general.

Though it seems Manning has been around forever, it?s still kind of hard to believe he?s 33 years old and is facing the possibility of having diminishing skills. He admits to sometimes barely getting out to make handoff on stretch plays and unlike Brett Favre, doesn?t spend much time thinking about his place in history in the NFL, he?s more consumed with winning and letting others determine where he belongs.

The Indianapolis team that was at this same location in 2007 was probably the worst of the four previous (2003-06) Colts playoff teams. That club found a hot rookie running back in Addai and the offensive line got into a bull-dozing mode and they plowed their way to championship. That experience gives the Colts an edge knowing what to expect and what level of performance is necessary. Teams favored by three to six points in this truly American game are 8-2 ATS.

Because the New Orleans defense is decidedly inferior, they have to continue to force turnovers. The oddsmakers are telling us Indy is your winner 31-25, based on spread and total. The Saints need to force no less than three turnovers and convert those into a minimum of 14 points, since the offense would be expected to generate 14 to 17 points on their own.

With Manning and Brees rightfully garnering the lion?s share of attention, four Colts youngsters could have direct impact on outcome. Receivers Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie played like seasoned vets against the blitzing Jets, as each was primary target thanks to Rex Ryan?s defensive scheme and they passed the test amazingly well. The New Orleans secondary will have far different coverages, yet their ability to ?come thru? will be no less important.

Corners Jerraud Powers and Jacob Lacey have given Colts fans a few anxious moments on occasion, but have played beyond reasonable expectations. They can study film from morning till night, but undoubtedly they will be faced with things they haven?t seen before against the Saints and every New Orleans receiver is big with good speed. If they think their quarterback gets rid of the ball in a hurry, wait until they see Brees. Their play under pressure will define how many points the Saints total.

Spread Differential ?Indianapolis -3

Bottom Line - Having the best quarterback in the game who doesn?t make many mistakes, a better defense and better than half the roster having Super Bowl experience leads to figure below.

Cumulative Spread Differential ? Indianapolis -7

Lumi · Feb 4, 2010

Saints' Payton steps away from sanctity

Saints' Payton steps away from sanctity

Saints' Payton steps away from sanctity

Mother Teresa, the men and women of our Armed Forces and perhaps even Sully Sullenberger are all worthy of canonization for their impact on society. If New Orleans Saints head coach Sean Payton brings a Super Bowl title back to the Big Easy, he may be declared an individual with exceptional holiness too.

And that's not just because of the team name, but what it would mean to the community if the Saints march back to the bayou with their first NFL championship. In times of duress, many look to a higher being or people of prominence to help them cope. After Hurricane Katrina ravaged Louisiana and the displaced community was forced to use the Superdome as a temporary residence, there was always hope with the Saints.

It was soon after the levee system catastrophically failed during the storm, much like the football team often has since the late 60's, that team owner Tom Benson made the move to hire Payton before the 2006 season. The two have been to the NFC Championship game twice in the past four years, finally winning it just a few weeks ago in the Superdome in front of the allegiant fan base. Payton surely knows how important a championship would be to the fans and the Crescent City.

"It's hard (to explain)," Payton said earlier on the significance of an NFC title. "Four years ago, there were holes in this roof. The fans in this city and this region deserve it. Like I said before, I'm just proud to be a part of it, to be part of something that is so special for this city and well deserved."

It's only fitting the Saints are in the Super Bowl against the AFC's best in Indianapolis after ripping off 13 straight wins to start the season. Payton and offensive coordinator Pete Carmichael, Jr. were fortunate enough to coach one of the top offensive units in NFL history, as the Saints finished first in yards per game (403.8), first in points per contest (31.9) and tied for first with the Colts and Vikings with 34 touchdown passes. The job has been a bit easier with Drew Brees under center, and the All-Pro quarterback has only Payton and his staff to thank. Under Payton and Carmichael, Brees was the main reason why New Orleans fans forgot the likes of former signal-callers like Bobby Hebert, John Fourcade and Aaron Brooks.

Payton, who has posted a record of 38-26 in the regular season and 3-1 in the postseason, helped former Saint Kerry Collins and the New York Giants get to Super Bowl XXXV when he served as offensive coordinator, and his work with Brees has further solidified his reputation as being a successful tutor to quarterbacks. The former NFL Coach of the Year, who has also worked with Drew Bledsoe and Vinny Testaverde, has extensive knowledge in this field and the Saints are better for it. With a football I.Q. higher than that of Elaine Benes in a classic episode of Seinfeld, Payton has a chess match for the ages ahead of him against Colts All-Pro quarterback and four-time MVP of the league Peyton Manning.

Manning has not only been on the mind of Payton the past few weeks, but on that of defensive coordinator Gregg Williams, and that's not necessarily a bad thing.

Or is it?

One mental picture worth painting in the mind of any defensive coordinator is Manning performing surgery with his mind and arm at the line of scrimmage. If those delusions aren't proof that scheming for Manning should take the allotted two weeks before the Super Bowl, take a look at the film from Indy's win over the New York Jets in the AFC Championship game. The only thing Manning didn't have was an exacto knife against the Jets' 4-6 blitz package, and Williams can only hope Carmichael can keep his offensive unit on the field for a lengthy period of time. But before counting out Williams and his staff, one has to show respect for the pioneer of tough defenses. Williams' units in Washington and Tennessee made a steady climb near the top of the NFL's defensive charts in his years there, but this year's Saints still have some kinks in the system.

The New Orleans defense finished 13th in the league in sacks (35.0), 21st against the rush (122.2 ypg), 25th in total yards (357.8 ypg) and 26th in pass coverage (235.6 ypg). In the win over Minnesota in the NFC title game, the Vikings racked up 475 yards of offense, including 310 thanks to the aging right arm of future Hall of Fame QB Brett Favre. The secondary will be in for a long day and a rough trip back to New Orleans if Manning has his way as usual.

"I think the key is alignment, assignment and knowing with each play your call on defense, your responsibility on defense and just executing your job," Payton said last week. "Obviously it's a lot easier said than done. Not only is Peyton on top of what he wants to get to, but you can see that same awareness with the receivers in Dallas Clark and the running backs. It's a team that's very intelligent, very smart as well as talented, and at times they make it look easy."

Payton has made coaching look easy ever since Benson handed him the keys to the organization back on January 18, 2006. Now in his 21st year in coaching, Payton is a veteran of the game and has a chance to become even more of an exemplary figure in the hearts of Saints fans across the nation.

Lumi · Feb 4, 2010

Saints' Brees a hero in more ways than one

Saints' Brees a hero in more ways than one

Saints' Brees a hero in more ways than one

Faith runs deep in New Orleans, a city steeped in Jesuit traditions that belie its reputation for excess and indulgence. And never were its citizens more in need of a savior than in March of 2006, when the devastating effects of Hurricane Katrina a few months prior had left the community's spirit in as much repair as the homes and businesses the storm had ripped apart.

Drew Brees was looking for someone to believe in him as well during that time period. A free agent who sustained an ill-timed and potentially career- threatening injury to his throwing shoulder in the final game of the 2005 season, the gritty quarterback garnered only lukewarm interest on the open market despite throwing for a career-best 3,576 yards and 24 touchdowns as a member of the San Diego Chargers. Returning to his old team wasn't a viable option either, with the Bolts already possessing a viable and younger replacement in first-round draft choice Philip Rivers.

The Saints weren't scared off by Brees' health issues, or by the former Purdue star's generously-listed six-foot frame that scared off many a college recruiter during his days as a decorated prepster in his native Texas. They signed Brees to a six-year, $60-million contract, a deal that raised a few eyebrows at the time but has since proven to be a virtual bargain.

The benefits from New Orleans' bold decision were instantaneous. With Brees expertly directing the creative offense installed by new head coach Sean Payton, the 2006 Saints orchestrated one of the most unbelievable turnarounds in NFL history. The new-look club won 10 games during the regular season, seven more than its calamity-filled 2005 campaign, and reached the NFC Championship Game for the first time in the franchise's 40-year tenure.

And most importantly, the Saints' sudden resurgence restored hope and pride to a city that had only begun to pick itself off the canvas from the knockout punch that Katrina had delivered.

Brees certainly did his part during that magical season, amassing a team- record 4,418 passing yards and 26 touchdowns in addition to the invaluable leadership he provided to the huddle and locker room. Those contributions still paled in comparison to what the fiery field general brought away from the playing field, however.

Immediately after signing with the Saints, Brees and his wife, Brittany, made it a point to ingrain themselves in the fabric of New Orleans' ravaged community. The couple purchased and restored an old home in the historic Uptown district of the city, spent countless hours helping rebuild other houses damaged by Katrina through the Habitat for Humanity program, and raised millions of dollars towards the construction and refurbishment of local schools, parks and athletic facilities through their Brees Dream Foundation.

Those efforts earned Brees what he considers one of the most cherished of the numerous honors he's attained over his outstanding nine-year career, the 2006 NFL Walter Payton Man of the Year Award. The All-Pro triggerman shared the accolade with LaDainian Tomlinson, his former teammate with the Chargers.

For all he's already given to a city that's endured its share of hard times over the years, Brees knows there's one gift he and his teammates can still bestow upon New Orleans' long-suffering fan base. When the Saints take the field against the Indianapolis Colts for Super Bowl XLIV, they'll be competing for a world title for the first time since joining the NFL in 1967. Prior to its victories over Arizona and Minnesota in this year's playoffs, New Orleans had won a mere two postseason games in its existence.

"We know what it's meant thus far to this community," Brees said shortly after the Saints' 31-28 overtime triumph over the Vikings in the NFC Championship Game. "Not only the regular season, but also being able to host two playoff games...what it did for this economy and what it did for the spirit of this city and these people."

While Brees' primary goal may indeed be to bring his adopted city its first- ever championship in a major professional sport, there's a bit of personal validation involved as well. Although he's solidified his standing as one of the NFL's premier signal-callers of this era with four amazingly-prolific seasons as the Saints' triggerman, the 31-year-old still lacks the coveted championship that separates the great quarterbacks from the legendary ones.

In some minds, Brees is viewed as a modern-day Dan Marino, a player whose extraordinary individual accomplishments were overshadowed by his inability to win a Super Bowl. Albeit an unfair label to be saddled with, championships are still the measuring stick by which quarterbacks are judged.

Brees' other numbers are pretty darn good, though. No player has thrown for more yards (18,298) since he joined the Saints prior to the 2006 season, while his 122 touchdown passes over that span are tied with Peyton Manning -- the man who'll be leading the Colts into battle in Super Bowl XLIV. Brees set an NFL record with 440 completions in 2007, then came within 15 yards of matching Marino's league single-season mark of 5,084 the following year.

The four-time Pro Bowl selection established a new NFL standard for accuracy this season, completing a pinpoint 70.6 of his attempts while matching a career-high with 34 scoring strikes.

Only time will tell whether or not he'll be able to obtain football's ultimate prize. But regardless of the final outcome on Super Bowl Sunday, Drew Brees will forever be a winner in the eyes and hearts of the people of New Orleans.

Bettors fading Saints early

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