0-3 last night .. ouch.
39-17 overall (70%), two tonight.
NBA: Chicago Bulls +4
My predicted line: Chicago +2
The Orlando Magic head to Chicago to take on the Bulls.
Orlando is 2nd place in the eastern conference with a 20-5 home record but only a 15-12 SU road record. They have won 8 of their past 10 games and are currently on a two game winning streak, beting New Orleans at home and Boston on the road, but will be playing their 3rd game in four nights and play again tommorow night on the road to face conference leaders, Cleveland Cavaliers. These situations are extremely rare in the NBA, they happen more and have more of an impact in college sports, but this is a letdown/look-ahead game for Orlando. Confidence with two wins in a row and looking ahead to their last game before the break tommorow night in Cleveland. NBA players minds are matured compared to college players, so this is not as big of an impact in professional sports and they stay more focused on the task at hand, but with the all-star game and activities approaching, the superbowl the other night and the Olympics starting in two days, and a game tommorow night against possibly the best team in the league, whom they lost to by 9 points at home in their last game: it is needless to say that these players minds are not as focused on tonights affair, then if this game were played a couple weeks ago.
Vince Carter scored 48 points in the 6 points (123-117) win over New Orleans in their previous game. This offensive performance by VC ranks as the 9th highest in Orlando Magic history (a number that was surpassed six times by cousin Tracy McGrady). When players have big games like this it is tendency for them to come out the next game, and try and build on their previous games performance. This however typically leads to forced shots and trying to do too much, which is never good on the road; and this player becomes more of a distraction to the team. Carter taking most of the shots is not this teams game plan and if he does try and do too much, like I expect him too, this quickly will change the fabric of Orlando's offense and will in turn change how they play on defense as well, if he tries to keep a tempo on offense that Orlando is not accustomed too. Case by point: even though he had a strong performance and scored an amazing 48 points, they only won by seven points. If he puts the pressure on him again, he will not score 48 points but once again it will disrupt the makeup of this team and being on the road, this would put them in lots of trouble. On the road this season Orlando has only beat opponents on average by 0.7 points .. has been out-shot from 3pt range and rebounds for/against are equal. Orlando is a very popular public team and I expect the public to be on them all day, which could drive the line up as high as 4.5/5 points, but before tip-off the sharps will bring the line back down to +4 or lower. I am very comfortable with +4, and feel that Chicago can take Orlando by surprise tonight for a SU victory.
At home Chicago outscores their opponents by just over a point per game and out-rebounds them by five rebounds per game. They also have won two straight games (@ IND and vs. Miami), beting Indiana on the road last night 109-101. Their defense is much better than this and I expect them to play tighter and more aggressively at home. They are 7-3 in their last 10 games, with surprisingly eight of those games being on the road .. they are a very good basketball team and are rounding into form nicely and should have a very good 2nd half of the season. Although Chicago played last night, this is only their 2nd game in the past four nights; so fatigue should not be a problem, especially with home motivation
Chicago will be without third year center Joakim Noah for the fourth straight night. They are 2-1 straight up without him and are 7-3 in their past 10 games. They have won 65% of their home games this season, with a record of 15-8. In Noah's absence, eight year veteran center Brad Miller has filled the role very nicely. He has always been a great player,averaging over 13 points per game in his career, but because of the play of Noah, he has not had much time to settle in until later. With that said he is averaging 7.5 points per game but 12 pts per game in his last 10, and is averaging 13 points and 6 rebounds per game since Noahs injury. Miller is actually an inch taller then Noah and Orlando's center Dwight Howard .. standing at 7 feet tall. He will have a very difficult matchup in tonights game with Howard, but I feel as though he will give everything he has for Chicago tonight on both ends of the court, in what is Chicago's final game before the all star break. The public is very weary to bet Chicago without Noah, giving us extra value in the points the bookmakers gave us.
Chicago will also look for a strong home performance for their fans, for that same reason .. you don't want to leave your fans on a sour note. Chicago has a very deep and talented team, full with players who give it all they have each night like Luol Deng, Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich; and although they are only 25-25 on the season I expect a very strong home performance from them tonight, and I expect them to go finish with a positive record before the all-star break. This game has the makings of a team set-up for a letdown before a more important game tommorow and a team who would like to finish off the first half of the season above .500, and likely to give it all they've got as this is their last game before the All-Star break. I expect Chicago to get it done for the home fans tonight, and a 3-5 point straight-up win.
Richmond +5.5
My predicted line: Richmond +3
The 18-6 Richmond Spiders (7-2 in league play) head on the road where they
have a better then average straight up record, all be it under .500 at 4-5.
They have won 4 of their past five road games however, in which span they are a total of 8-2 (4-1 at home and 4-1 on road past 10 games). Richmond is off a win over ranked, divisional foes Temple Owls. Richmond won by 17 and many think that this will be a letdown game for Temple but I see different. Richmond is a very skilled team and earlier in the season the wen't on the road and beat then ranked #13 Florida Gators, and won their next game three days later by 26 points. Richmond will play three of the worst teams in the league their next three games and will be more then up for their challenge tonight with no reason to ook forward. Let down games tend to only be validated when they are complimented with a game for the opposing team to look ahead too .. with three bad opponents, and being in a division where the top seven teams are all within four wins of eachother, Richmond knows that they cannot have a let down game and you won't see that out of this team tonight. This assumption of a let down added to Rhode Island's 10-1 home record, has Rhode Island highly overvalued in what looks to be a very close game .. giving Richmong tons of value as a live dog.
Richmond is battling with Rhode Island and four other teams for top spot in their conference, in which 4 or 5 of these six teams will likely make it into the March Madness tournament. This game is very crutial for both teams. Richmond has an RPI in the top 40, and currently has the 8th ranked defense in the entire country (better then teams like Pittsburgh, who are known for their outstanding defense). Richmond leads the Atlantic 10 in steals and has three players in the top-10 of the league with Kevin Anderson t-2nd, while David Gonzalvez and Ryan Butler are tied for 4th. All these players are great passers, and the team chemistry is unbelieveable. Anderson and Gonzalvez are two very solid guards for Richmond and have been avering a combined 30 points per game, combined with 8 rebounds per game, combined 4 steals per game and a combined 8 rebounds per game. These players have been consistently great this year and recently Justin Harper has been the key X factor for this Richmond team. He is a very under the radar player but is averaging over 10 points this season, with 6 rebounds per game and 48% FG shooting. The 6-10 junior forward has scored double digits in 5 of his past seven games, but only scored eight in their game vs. Temple the other day. Look for a very strong performance from him if Rhode Island overlooks his abilities and focus on Richmond's guards.
Rhode Island has great numbers just as Richmond, but they are not 5.5 points better then Richmond even being at home, where they have the (GET THIS) 975th best home advantage in the country .. all be it they are 10-1 at home this season. Their fan support is very weak .. and Richmonds fans are likely to fill 30-40% of the crowd in tonights game. Rhode Island does have capable scorers, and have the 20th ranked onfense in the country but have the 170th ranked defense. The fact that Rhode Island's home advantage is so low and that their defense is susceptible to being taken advantage is not something in their favor vs. a strong, confident Richmond team. Another thing not in their favor tonight is the fact that they will also be facing Temple in their next game, and then another team in the top 6 of their league. They have a tough road ahead of them and it starts with Richmond tonight. Rhode Island lost earlier in the year to Temple, at home, by four points .. and without having a prior game against Richmond or much of a rivalry for that matter, they could look ahead to their next game .. at least enough to slip up and let Richmond control the pace. Rhode Island only has one strong guard but have two very good forwards. Rhode Islands two top players however average less per game then Richmonds top two.
These teams have yet to meet eachother this season and when teams first meet the underdog is more times then not the better bet. When teams have played more the better team is able to pick up on the worse off teams tendencies and then exploit them. When teams have yet to face eachother the games usually remain tighter and more back and forth. That is what I see in tonights game, and I would not be surprised if we saw a Richmond victory of 5+ points. This game could come down to the wire and I am confident that 5.5 points is more then safe to win us this bet. This game has all the makings of a barn burner.
GL to all today.
BOL
PV