BEGINNING THURSDAY MAY 6
Kansas City at Texas (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Rangers have been moving up in the standings (8-3, +$530 last 11 days) thanks to what has emerged as a better than expected pitching staff (3.62 ERA, 3rd best in the AL). They?ve had some difficulty vs. lefthanders, but they should dominate KC?s all-righty rotation without much difficulty (+$490 with 5.3 runs per game in that situation so far). C.J. Wilson is off to the best start of any Texas hurler (1.65 ERA in five starts), and the visitor is only 1-4 vs. southpaws at this point (-$160). BEST BET: C. Wilson.
Baltimore at Minnesota (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Orioles climbed off the canvas and gave a respectable showing vs. tough Boston & New York teams last week (4-2, +$395), but the Twins are very formidable (16-9, +$520) and the road has been very unkind to Baltimore thus far (3-10, -$540). Minnesota has one of the better mound corps in the league right now, with Francisco Liriano re-emerging as one of baseball?s finest southpaws (+$505, 1.50 ERA in five starts). The Orioles are only 1-6 vs. lefties (-$475), averaging a mere 2.6 runs per game in those contests. BEST BET: Liriano.
Toronto at Chicago W. Sox (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
They?ve already split a four game set in 2010, but the White Sox were dominated by the Blue Jays in head to head play last year (only 1-6, -$530) and Chicago?s offense appears as anemic as ever (.225 team BA, lowest in the league). Toronto has struggled at Rogers Centre this year, but they?ve been very profitable as visitors (6-3, +$595 in that situation), so we?ll look for their dominance of this team to continue. Ricky Romero (2.25 ERA) and Shaun Marcum (3.12) have helped the team stay competitive now that Roy Halladay is in Philadelphia. There?s a strong likelihood both will see action at US Cellular. BEST BET: Romero/Marcum.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 7
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Braves picked up some badly needed wins when they swept away the up and down Astros over the weekend. But they are still having a bad year so far (-$530), and struggling to score runs (less than 4.0 per game thus far). The Phillies took 2 out of 3 the first time these teams met this year (+$135) and they?ve been manhandling righthanders (12-6, +$500 with 5.9 runs per game). Big edge to the home team here, but stay away if prices reach unacceptable levels. BEST BET: Phillies at -150 or less.
Florida at Washington (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
After 25 games the Nationals are a respectable club, with a 13-12 record that translates into huge profits for their backers (+$775). Livan Hernandez has been remarkable in his first four starts (+$405, 0.87 ERA) and newcomer Luis Atilano has broken into the scene with a pair for impressive outings (+$300, 2.25 ERA). Florida has lost money on the road vs. righthanders (2-4, -$255) and their bullpen has proven to be one of the NL?s least effective (4.46). We?ll try to cash a couple of tickets with the home team, hopefully at attractive prices. BEST BET: L.Hernandez/Atilano.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Cardinals dominated this team in 2009 (10-5, +$290) but the Pirates are much harder to beat here at PNC Park, where they check in with a 5-4 (+$205). Nevertheless, they currently rank dead last in the league in both pitching (6.67 team ERA) and hitting (.234 team BA) and St. Louis has a staff ERA exactly four runs per game lower (2.67). The Cardinals do struggle vs. lefties, but their numbers vs. righthanders are solid (15-5, +$805), so we?ll play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Cardinals vs. righthanders.
San Francisco at N.Y. Mets (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Mets looked dead in the water a couple of weeks ago, but they?ve come roaring back to life (8-2, +$655 last 10 days) and their much maligned starting rotation now ranks near the top of the NL in team ERA (3.23). The Giants have been awesome on the mound (2.67 ERA) and they have the top BA in the league (.282), though their run production remains average at best. We could get some nice prices against the top line SF righthanders, at least one of whom should see action at CitiField this weekend (NY 10-3, +$635 in that situation). BEST BET: Mets vs. righthanders.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
These clubs started the month of May with comparable records, but the Cubs have much better pitching (3.93 team ERA vs. 5.42 for the Reds) and their run production has picked up in recent days (6.1 per game last 11). Ryan Dempster has flashed excellent form in his first five starts (2.78 ERA) and Carlos Silva (+$305, 2.90 in five outings), is being held back until Saturday due to a sore wrist. We expect to see at least one of them here, if not both, and we?ll get on board when they appear. BEST BET: Dempster/Silva.
San Diego at Houston (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
Tremendous start to the season for the Padres (16-9, +$850), taking 3 out of 4 from the Brewers at Petco Park last weekend, outscoring the visitor 21-2 in that series. Their team ERA is third best in the league (3.08) and now they get to take on an erratic Houston team that is in the midst of another major tailspin (8-16, -$680 so far in 2010). Houston has scored the fewest runs in the league by far (only 3.0 per game) so the visitor has a good chance at taking at least 2 out of 3 at Minute Maid Park. BEST BET: Padres in all games.
Milwaukee at Arizona (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
These teams come into Chase Field with similar records, and are surprisingly even statistically (Brewers .273 BA, 4.98 ERA . . . Diamondbacks .275 BA, 5.70 ERA) so it?s hard to get a sense of who?s better at the moment. Danny Haren has not found his form as of yet (-$155, 4.50 ERA in six starts) but he?s likely to go off as a heavy favorite over Milwaukee. Edwin Jackson is also struggling since joining the club (-$450, 8.07 ERA) and is also slated to make an appearance. We?ll back the visitor vs. this pair, no doubt at attractive underdog prices. BEST BET: Brewers vs. Haren & E. Jackson.
Colorado at L.A. Dodgers (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Rockies could be very competitive this year, but at the moment they have one outstanding starter (Jimenez +$510, 0.052 ERA in five starts) and not much else. But LA is headed for a grim season the way it looks now (-$795) as they struggle to cobble together a rotation they can rely on (4.68 ERA, 5th worst in the league). LA did dominate head to head play last year (14-4, +$1070), but we?re not confident enough to jump in at this time. BEST BET: None.
Detroit at Cleveland (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Tigers engineered a sweep of a quality Angels team at Comerica last weekend, giving them 9 wins in their last 12 games (+$780). They swept an earlier series for the beleaguered Tribe (+$300) and they are scoring plenty of runs so far (.280 BA, just under 5.0 per game). Couple that with the 14-4 mark they posted in 2009 head to head play (+$880) and it looks like a perfect setting for the visitor. BEST BET: Tigers in all games.
N.Y. Yankees at Boston (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Yankees opened the season at Fenway Park and promptly took 2 out of 3 (+$155). We expect more of the same. Boston has been a huge money-burner in 2010 (-$935) and after watching Tampa sweep a four game set here, you would expect New York to enjoy success as well. The Bombers are in top form (16-8, +$480) and look like a good value with Phil Hughes , who looks very comfortable in the starting rotation (1.44 ERA in four starts). BEST BET: Hughes.
Tampa Bay at Oakland (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Tampa rotation has looked awesome so far this year, with all five starts checking in with ERA?s under 3.38. They?ve also scored more runs than any team in MLB (6.1 per game) and appear poised to give the Yankees a serious run in the AL East. The Athletics got out of the gate quickly, but they?ve faded in recent days (4-6, -$190 with a 6.79 ERA among starters), and they dropped a two game set to the Rays earlier this year (-$200). Unlike 2009, Tampa Bay is sizzling hot outside of Tropicana Field (+$965), so we?ll look for them to stay that way. BEST BET: Rays in all games.
L.A. Angels at Seattle (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
If the Mariners can score a few runs they could run away with the AL West. Unfortunately, that has not been the case in recent days (only 2.9 per game last 10 days). They wasted a stellar debut by Cliff Lee vs. the Rangers last week, and they had one of the best team ERA?s in the league when he was still on the DL (3.33, 2nd best in the AL). The Angels have been inconsistent thus far, going from cold streak to hot streak and back (4-6, -$235 last 10). We?re going to see what pitching matchups develop before we venture an opinion on this series. BEST BET: None.
Kansas City at Texas (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Rangers have been moving up in the standings (8-3, +$530 last 11 days) thanks to what has emerged as a better than expected pitching staff (3.62 ERA, 3rd best in the AL). They?ve had some difficulty vs. lefthanders, but they should dominate KC?s all-righty rotation without much difficulty (+$490 with 5.3 runs per game in that situation so far). C.J. Wilson is off to the best start of any Texas hurler (1.65 ERA in five starts), and the visitor is only 1-4 vs. southpaws at this point (-$160). BEST BET: C. Wilson.
Baltimore at Minnesota (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
The Orioles climbed off the canvas and gave a respectable showing vs. tough Boston & New York teams last week (4-2, +$395), but the Twins are very formidable (16-9, +$520) and the road has been very unkind to Baltimore thus far (3-10, -$540). Minnesota has one of the better mound corps in the league right now, with Francisco Liriano re-emerging as one of baseball?s finest southpaws (+$505, 1.50 ERA in five starts). The Orioles are only 1-6 vs. lefties (-$475), averaging a mere 2.6 runs per game in those contests. BEST BET: Liriano.
Toronto at Chicago W. Sox (4) 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th
They?ve already split a four game set in 2010, but the White Sox were dominated by the Blue Jays in head to head play last year (only 1-6, -$530) and Chicago?s offense appears as anemic as ever (.225 team BA, lowest in the league). Toronto has struggled at Rogers Centre this year, but they?ve been very profitable as visitors (6-3, +$595 in that situation), so we?ll look for their dominance of this team to continue. Ricky Romero (2.25 ERA) and Shaun Marcum (3.12) have helped the team stay competitive now that Roy Halladay is in Philadelphia. There?s a strong likelihood both will see action at US Cellular. BEST BET: Romero/Marcum.
BEGINNING FRIDAY MAY 7
Atlanta at Philadelphia (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Braves picked up some badly needed wins when they swept away the up and down Astros over the weekend. But they are still having a bad year so far (-$530), and struggling to score runs (less than 4.0 per game thus far). The Phillies took 2 out of 3 the first time these teams met this year (+$135) and they?ve been manhandling righthanders (12-6, +$500 with 5.9 runs per game). Big edge to the home team here, but stay away if prices reach unacceptable levels. BEST BET: Phillies at -150 or less.
Florida at Washington (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
After 25 games the Nationals are a respectable club, with a 13-12 record that translates into huge profits for their backers (+$775). Livan Hernandez has been remarkable in his first four starts (+$405, 0.87 ERA) and newcomer Luis Atilano has broken into the scene with a pair for impressive outings (+$300, 2.25 ERA). Florida has lost money on the road vs. righthanders (2-4, -$255) and their bullpen has proven to be one of the NL?s least effective (4.46). We?ll try to cash a couple of tickets with the home team, hopefully at attractive prices. BEST BET: L.Hernandez/Atilano.
St. Louis at Pittsburgh (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Cardinals dominated this team in 2009 (10-5, +$290) but the Pirates are much harder to beat here at PNC Park, where they check in with a 5-4 (+$205). Nevertheless, they currently rank dead last in the league in both pitching (6.67 team ERA) and hitting (.234 team BA) and St. Louis has a staff ERA exactly four runs per game lower (2.67). The Cardinals do struggle vs. lefties, but their numbers vs. righthanders are solid (15-5, +$805), so we?ll play this series accordingly. BEST BET: Cardinals vs. righthanders.
San Francisco at N.Y. Mets (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Mets looked dead in the water a couple of weeks ago, but they?ve come roaring back to life (8-2, +$655 last 10 days) and their much maligned starting rotation now ranks near the top of the NL in team ERA (3.23). The Giants have been awesome on the mound (2.67 ERA) and they have the top BA in the league (.282), though their run production remains average at best. We could get some nice prices against the top line SF righthanders, at least one of whom should see action at CitiField this weekend (NY 10-3, +$635 in that situation). BEST BET: Mets vs. righthanders.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
These clubs started the month of May with comparable records, but the Cubs have much better pitching (3.93 team ERA vs. 5.42 for the Reds) and their run production has picked up in recent days (6.1 per game last 11). Ryan Dempster has flashed excellent form in his first five starts (2.78 ERA) and Carlos Silva (+$305, 2.90 in five outings), is being held back until Saturday due to a sore wrist. We expect to see at least one of them here, if not both, and we?ll get on board when they appear. BEST BET: Dempster/Silva.
San Diego at Houston (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
Tremendous start to the season for the Padres (16-9, +$850), taking 3 out of 4 from the Brewers at Petco Park last weekend, outscoring the visitor 21-2 in that series. Their team ERA is third best in the league (3.08) and now they get to take on an erratic Houston team that is in the midst of another major tailspin (8-16, -$680 so far in 2010). Houston has scored the fewest runs in the league by far (only 3.0 per game) so the visitor has a good chance at taking at least 2 out of 3 at Minute Maid Park. BEST BET: Padres in all games.
Milwaukee at Arizona (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
These teams come into Chase Field with similar records, and are surprisingly even statistically (Brewers .273 BA, 4.98 ERA . . . Diamondbacks .275 BA, 5.70 ERA) so it?s hard to get a sense of who?s better at the moment. Danny Haren has not found his form as of yet (-$155, 4.50 ERA in six starts) but he?s likely to go off as a heavy favorite over Milwaukee. Edwin Jackson is also struggling since joining the club (-$450, 8.07 ERA) and is also slated to make an appearance. We?ll back the visitor vs. this pair, no doubt at attractive underdog prices. BEST BET: Brewers vs. Haren & E. Jackson.
Colorado at L.A. Dodgers (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Rockies could be very competitive this year, but at the moment they have one outstanding starter (Jimenez +$510, 0.052 ERA in five starts) and not much else. But LA is headed for a grim season the way it looks now (-$795) as they struggle to cobble together a rotation they can rely on (4.68 ERA, 5th worst in the league). LA did dominate head to head play last year (14-4, +$1070), but we?re not confident enough to jump in at this time. BEST BET: None.
Detroit at Cleveland (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Tigers engineered a sweep of a quality Angels team at Comerica last weekend, giving them 9 wins in their last 12 games (+$780). They swept an earlier series for the beleaguered Tribe (+$300) and they are scoring plenty of runs so far (.280 BA, just under 5.0 per game). Couple that with the 14-4 mark they posted in 2009 head to head play (+$880) and it looks like a perfect setting for the visitor. BEST BET: Tigers in all games.
N.Y. Yankees at Boston (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Yankees opened the season at Fenway Park and promptly took 2 out of 3 (+$155). We expect more of the same. Boston has been a huge money-burner in 2010 (-$935) and after watching Tampa sweep a four game set here, you would expect New York to enjoy success as well. The Bombers are in top form (16-8, +$480) and look like a good value with Phil Hughes , who looks very comfortable in the starting rotation (1.44 ERA in four starts). BEST BET: Hughes.
Tampa Bay at Oakland (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
The Tampa rotation has looked awesome so far this year, with all five starts checking in with ERA?s under 3.38. They?ve also scored more runs than any team in MLB (6.1 per game) and appear poised to give the Yankees a serious run in the AL East. The Athletics got out of the gate quickly, but they?ve faded in recent days (4-6, -$190 with a 6.79 ERA among starters), and they dropped a two game set to the Rays earlier this year (-$200). Unlike 2009, Tampa Bay is sizzling hot outside of Tropicana Field (+$965), so we?ll look for them to stay that way. BEST BET: Rays in all games.
L.A. Angels at Seattle (3) 7th, 8th, 9th
If the Mariners can score a few runs they could run away with the AL West. Unfortunately, that has not been the case in recent days (only 2.9 per game last 10 days). They wasted a stellar debut by Cliff Lee vs. the Rangers last week, and they had one of the best team ERA?s in the league when he was still on the DL (3.33, 2nd best in the AL). The Angels have been inconsistent thus far, going from cold streak to hot streak and back (4-6, -$235 last 10). We?re going to see what pitching matchups develop before we venture an opinion on this series. BEST BET: None.
