College Plays from 9/2-9/6....

[AR182]

I'm putting this play in before the line goes any further down....

Under 45 (120) NW / Vandy....

NW is bringing back 7 starters from offense (new QB) & 6 starters from the defensive team....Vandy is bringing back 6 (including the QB) & 5 respectively. But more important is that their long time coach, Johnson quit on them just a few weeks ago....

Imo the strength of the NW team is their front 7 on defense, which matches up well vs. the predominantly running attack from Vandy....I also think that the Vandy defense will be able to slow the NW offense that had an offensive line that didn't play well last year & is missing their starting QB & top 2 receivers from last year.

A few trends that support this play....

NW is 8-1 under in road games over the last 3 seasons....The average score was NW 22.3, Oponent 19.7....

Vandy is 8-1 under as a dog of 3.5 to 10 points over the last 3 seasons....The average score was Vandy 16.8, Opponent 19.8....

Vandy is 9-1 under as a home dog of 7 points or less since 1992....The average score was Vandy 14.4, Opponent 22.8....

I don't think that the total score in this game gets into the 40's....


Good luck....

 

[#cruncher]

That may be a good one AR, I'll be pulling for you!

 

[rrc]

Some more NU info for you Al...

Even though Persa played when Kafka was injured he only was able to throw for 224 yds. Kafka now gone was heart and soul of team.

The entire offensive line returns, though it wasn't that strong last year. 3 jrs 2 sophs

Offense out of the spread only ave 118 ypg rushing.

Two leading receivers gone..which you mentioned.

Secondary lost 2 all conf players.

All 3 LBs return.

D coord, formerly at UW (little plug) has had the def definitely on the upswing since his arrival.

Wooten big loss to def.

Summary...Fitz is a great young coach who won't ask Persa to do too much in the opener on the road.

Nu takes it 24-17.

Gl this year, always enjoy reading your stuff.

 

[LDB]

Hope you have a great season Ar. :toast:

 

[AR182]

Thanks guys....appreciate it.

 

[AR182]

Some more NU info for you Al...

Even though Persa played when Kafka was injured he only was able to throw for 224 yds. Kafka now gone was heart and soul of team.

The entire offensive line returns, though it wasn't that strong last year. 3 jrs 2 sophs

Offense out of the spread only ave 118 ypg rushing.

Two leading receivers gone..which you mentioned.

Secondary lost 2 all conf players.

All 3 LBs return.

D coord, formerly at UW (little plug) has had the def definitely on the upswing since his arrival.

Wooten big loss to def.

Summary...Fitz is a great young coach who won't ask Persa to do too much in the opener on the road.

Nu takes it 24-17.

Gl this year, always enjoy reading your stuff.

rr....

Thanks for your comments but don't see Vandy scoring 17 points in this game....

 

[AR182]

I just read this at another forum & will let you decide if this info is useful....

Trends....

So Miss is 11-5 ATS in last 16 road games.

Iowa St is 6-2 ATS in last 8 games overall.

Utah is 27-12-1 ATS in last 40 non.conference games.

Missouri is 13-5 ATS in last 18 Non-Conference games.

Oregon is 15-7 ATS in September games. Clemson is 4-1 ATS vs Sun Belt teams.

UConn is 34-16-1 ATS in last 51 non-conference games.

Kentucky is 5-1 ATS in last 6 road games.

BYU is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 games in Sept.

Oklahoma is 11-2-1 ATS in the last 14 games in Sept.

Oregon St is 23-8 ATS in last 32 games overall.

LSU is 15-7 ATS in last 32 Non-conference games.


Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Had some time today to take an additiional look at the lines & made another under total play where imo the defense usually has an edge over the offense during the early part of the year....

Under 48 (130) So. Miss. / So. Car.....

Sm returns 3 starters (including the QB) from last year's offense & 9 from the defensive side of the ball....And although the SM defense played well below SM defenses of the past, big things are expected from this unit....The following was taken from an SM blog where the coach is talking about what's expected from the defense this year....

"Southern Miss returns ever starter on the defensive front seven from a year ago. Southern Miss head coach Larry Fedora inherited a defensive front that was short on experience when he took the reigns just over two years ago and has watched the unit struggle the past two seasons. He now feels that the unit has the depth and experience to become a strength of the team.

"A couple years ago we had less than 100 reps total experience up front," head coach Larry Fedora said. "Now we've got thousands of reps up front, amongst quite a few of them. Starting inside with Anthony Gray and Terrance Pope playing a bunch. Those guys have gotten a lot of reps."

Throughout the summer Fedora has not been shy about his expectations for the defense, and talked about his expectations for the line after practice on Thursday.

"I expect them to be the most talented defensive line in the league," Fedora said. "We have enough talent there and that will be the strength of our team."

The SC team returns 9 (including the QB) from last year's offense that averaged 20.6 ppg on the season & 26 ppg at home & 7 from the defense that allowed an average of 20.4 ppg on the season & 16.7 ppg at home....

Here are a few trends that support this play....

SM is 19-5 under in road games in the first half of the season since 1992....The average score was SM 18.6, Opponent 21.0....

Spurrier is 9-1 under in the first two weeks of the season as the coach of SC....The average score was SC 19.3, Opponent 14.4....

Here is a system that supports this play....

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (SM) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games....

Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....33-10....76.7%....


With a big rivalry game next week against Georgia, I will be interested in seeing how Spurrier's offense will perform for this game....


Good luck....

 

[Irish]

AR
Great to see that fine avartar a$$ for another season of football! Best of luck and hope we are on the same side more than not.

Cheers
Irish

 

[AR182]

Hey Irish....It's good seeing you....Hope things are well with you & yours....

 

[AR182]

The following is a list of returning starters from last year....I got this from someplace else so i haven't verified the accuracy....

* means starting QB from last year is returning....

Special teams list 2 kicker & punter....

OFFENSE / DEFENSE / SPECIAL TEAMS
Air Force 5*6 1
Akron 6* 9 2
Alabama 8* 2 0
Arizona 7* 4 2
Arizona St. 4 4 2
Arkansas 9* 7 2
Arkansas St. 6 5 1
Army 8* 8 2
Auburn 7 8 1
Ball St. 11* 8 2
Baylor 6* 6 2
Boise St. 11* 10 2
Boston College 8* 6 1
Bowling Green 4 4 1
Buffalo 5 9 2
BYU 7 4 2
California 8* 6 2
Cent Michigan 7 5 1
Cincinnati 6 5 2
Clemson 6* 6 2
Colorado 8* 7 1
Colorado St. 2 5 2
Connecticut 8* 7 1
Duke 8 6 2
East Carolina 5 3 0
East Michigan 8* 7 1
FIU 8 5 0
Florida Atlantic 4 9 1
Florida 6 7 2
Florida St. 8* 4 2
Fresno St. 7* 9 1
Georgia 10 6 2
Georgia Tech 7* 9 2
Hawaii 6* 7 2
Houston 9* 6 1
Idaho 6* 10 2
Illinois 5 7 2
Indiana 8* 4 2
Iowa 6* 8 0
Iowa St. 8* 4 1
Kansas 7 7 2
Kansas St. 7 6 2
Kent St 9* 7 2
Kentucky 5* 7 1
LouiSIAna 5* 9 2
LouiSIAna Tech 7* 6 2
Louisville 8* 6 0
LSU 6* 4 2
Marshall 7* 7 1
Maryland 7 4 2
Memphis 7 4 0
Miami (Fla.) 6* 8 2
Miami (OH) 10* 9 1
Michigan 7* 8 0
Michigan St. 7* 7 1
Middle Tenn 8* 6 1
Minnesota 9* 2 1
Mississippi 4 6 1
Mississippi St. 7 8 2
Missouri 9* 9 1
N Carolina 8* 9 2
N Carolina St. 7* 5 1
N Illinois 8* 9 1
N Mexico St. 8* 7 2
N Texas 10* 8 1
Navy 8* 5 2
Nebraska 8* 8 2
Nevada 9* 7 2
New Mexico 5 5 0
Northwestern 8 6 2
Notre Dame 6 9 2
Ohio State 9* 6 0
Ohio University 6 6 2
Oklahoma 9* 4 2
Oklahoma St. 4 4 2
Oregon 10* 7 1
Oregon St. 8 8 1
Penn St. 7 5 1
Pittsburgh 4 6 2
Purdue 6 5 1
Rice 8* 8 1
Rutgers 6* 6 2
Southern Miss 4* 9 2
San Diego St. 9* 6 1
San Jose St. 9* 7 1
SMU 9* 6 2
South Carolina 8* 7 2
Stanford 8* 6 2
Syracuse 8 10 2
TCU 9* 7 2
Temple 9* 8 1
Tennessee 4 7 2
Texas 6 7 1
Texas A&M 8* 9 2
Texas Tech 7* 6 2
Toledo 6 6 1
Troy 7 4 2
Tulane 8* 4 0
Tulsa 9* 4 2
UAB 7 8 2
UCF 7 6 2
UCLA 8* 5 2
ULM 6* 4 1
UNLV 8* 7 0
USC 5* 6 1
USF 9* 4 1
Utah 7* 4 2
Utah St. 7* 8 1
UTEP 7* 4 1
Vanderbilt 6* 5 1
Virginia 7 7 2
Virginia Tech 8* 5 0
Wake Forest 6 7 2
Wash St. 8* 8 2
Washington 10* 8 2
West Virginia 7 9 1
Western Michigan 7 7 2
Wisconsin 10* 6 2
WKU 9* 9 1
Wyoming 8* 7


Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Made another play....

Conn.+3....

First let me say that I'm big fan of Conn's coach Randy Edsall....I have always felt that he is one of the most under-rated coaches in all of college sports....

This season Conn. returns their starting QB & TB (1200 yds rushing) & 3 experienced receivers & have a total of 8 starters on offense & 8 on defense from last season's team returning....Last season these players led Conn. to a 10-2 record (including a bowl win over So. Car.) & 5-0 record on the road....

Mich.is returning 7 from last season's offense & 8 from the defense (allowed closed to 400 yds. per game in Big-10 play last season)....& eventhough they are returning last year's starting QB, they don't seem to be settled on him as the starter....Michigan went 6-7 last season, with 4 of those wins were against E. Mich., W. Mich, Delaware State and Indiana....Against better competition they were 2-7, including losing their last 5 games....

Next week Mich. has a big game vs. N.D., while Conn. is scheduled against Texas Southern....

A trend that I think shows how well coached Conn. is, shows them being 7-0 ats as a dog over the last 2 seasons....

Play Against - Any team (Mich.) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 5 or more straight losses, with an experienced QB returning as starter....

Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....36-10....78.3%....

Over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....11-1....91.6%....

Over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....21-4....84%....


Good luck....

 

[Cie]

I'll be on UConn as well.

 

[AR182]

I'll be on UConn as well.

That's good to see....Just an fyi, Bookmaker has the line 2.5....

 

[Cie]

That's good to see....Just an fyi, Bookmaker has the line 2.5....

Thanks, I just saw my line drifted to +3 -115 at one out, so I just hopped on at +3 -110 at the other. :toast:

 

[layinwood]

Made another play....

Conn.+3....

First let me say that I'm big fan of Conn's coach Randy Edsall....I have always felt that he is one of the most under-rated coaches in all of college sports....

This season Conn. returns their starting QB & TB (1200 yds rushing) & 3 experienced receivers & have a total of 8 starters on offense & 8 on defense from last season's team returning....Last season these players led Conn. to a 10-2 record (including a bowl win over So. Car.) & 5-0 record on the road....

Mich.is returning 7 from last season's offense & 8 from the defense (allowed closed to 400 yds. per game in Big-10 play last season)....& eventhough they are returning last year's starting QB, they don't seem to be settled on him as the starter....Michigan went 6-7 last season, with 4 of those wins were against E. Mich., W. Mich, Delaware State and Indiana....Against better competition they were 2-7, including losing their last 5 games....

Next week Mich. has a big game vs. N.D., while Conn. is scheduled against Texas Southern....

A trend that I think shows how well coached Conn. is, shows them being 7-0 ats as a dog over the last 2 seasons....

Play Against - Any team (Mich.) - in the first week of the season, after closing out last season with 5 or more straight losses, with an experienced QB returning as starter....

Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....36-10....78.3%....

Over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....11-1....91.6%....

Over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....21-4....84%....


Good luck....

I know in another thread people are talking about trends and whether or not to use them, follow them or do anything with them. I think you have to look at the trend and understand why it might really mean something. The last trend you posted here against Mich is the perfect example of why one works so well. We all know QBs are one of if not the most important position in football and when a qb is good even though they're young they will win here and there but be so up and down that they'll also lose. Now when you have a qb that isn't good they just straight lose and just because they're there the next year doesn't mean their experience will help. More than likely they'll just keep being bad and it makes them a great go against.(Hawkins with Colo is a perfect example) I personally think Tate will end up being a good college qb but you can't pick and choose when to follow and when not to follow, otherwise you're just betting on or against the trend instead of the situation.

AR, I always enjoy your post. Heres to having your best season ever. :toast:

 

[AR182]

Thanks layinwood....appreciate your post....

Made another play....

Under 44(120) UCLA / Kan. St....

Liked this play from the start & noticed that Pinnacle has it now at 43, so grabbed the 43.5 & bought 1/2 point....

UCLA returns either 7 or 8 from last year's starting offense. Their QB, Prince has been battling injuries & latest report that I read is that he may miss this game. In addition UCLA is switching their offense & according to what I have read, the offense is not doing too well with it. One reason may be that their QB's are not athletic enough to run the new pistol offense.In fact, the reports say they have been terrible in practices. Also their offensive line play has been hit by injuries & has looked shaky in practices.Their best players on offense may be their running backs...On defense, UCLA returns 5 from last year's defense & according to reports their back 7 looks pretty good....

K-St. returns 5 from last year's offense & will try to run the ball because from what I have read, their QB play & receivers haven't looked too sharp so far in practices & 6 from the defense....

Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (K-St) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games....

Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....33-10....76.7%....

The average total posted in these games was: 45.7....The average score in these games was.... Team 19.9, Opponent 18....Total points scored.... 37.9....The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 27....62.8% of all games....


Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Pitt+3....

Pitt. is returning 5 offensive starters from last year's team & 6 from the defense....While Utah is returning 8 (including the QB) from the offense & 4 from the defense....

I have read numerous opinions on this game & some say that they are taking Utah because they are playing at home....& if you quickly looked at Utah's record last year, you would be impressed with their home record of 6-0 SU / 3-3 ATS.... But looked more carefully, you will notice that those 6 home games were against opponents who had a combined 2009 W/L record of 28-46 (37.8%)....They were Utah St (4-8), Louisville (4-8), AF (8-5), Wyom (7-6), NM (1-11), & SD State (4-8).....

Pitt has one of the best running games in the nation & is led by Dion Lewis.....Last year they ranked 34th in the nation in rushing & averaged a little over 180 ypg....On defense last year, Utah allowed about 138 ypg rushing & ranked 53rd in the nation....Since Utah is returning 4 starters from last year, this should spell trouble for the Utes....

On the other side of the ball, Utah does bring into this game a pretty good passing game, but should struggle against the Pitt defense that has an experienced linebacking corp & 2ndary along with top pass rusher Greg Romeus....

I'll take the dog that has the better rushing attack & better defense & should win the war in the trenches....

Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Under 44(120) Syracuse / Akron....

These 2 met last Oct. with Syr. winning 28-14....In that game, Syr. gained 234 yds. rushing & 105 through the air....Akron gained 0 yds. on the ground & 191 passing....

This year, the Cuse returns 5 starters from the offense, but will have a new QB (got some playing time last year) & 10 starters on defense returning....Akron has 6 starters, including the QB returning on offense, while the defense has 7 starters returning....

Reports that I have read from both camps indicate that the respective defenses are ahead of the offenses, which is not surprising considering that the Cuse is starting a new QB & have no homerun threat at the receiver position & Akron has a new head coach with new schemes to learn....

The opening total for this game started at 46.5 & is now down to 43-44....& it's interesting to note that the betting public is correct when moving the total in Akron games 76.2% (16-5) of the time over the past 3 seasons....


Good luck....

 

[elmer fudd]

thanks