NFLX....Week #3....

[AR182]

4-1....

Have 3 plays so far for this week....

Over 36 (120) Az. / Chi....

Very rarely do I bet overs, & never do in pre-season, but just think this is a good spot for a game to go over. Everybody saw on MNF how putrid Az's offense looked against Tenn., but Chi.'s defense has been just as bad during pre-season & has allowed 28.5 ppg so far....

There is 1 trend for over & 1 for under pertaining to this game....The one for over makes more sense to me than the under trend....

Az. is 11-2 over after scoring 7 points or less in the first half in 2 straight games since 1993....The average score was Az. 20.5, Opponent 27.4....


SF+1....

Both teams look like they want to erase the losing mentality of the last few years, but really like what Singletary is doing with SF....

Play On - Road underdogs or pick (SF) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in week four ( HOF game is considered week #1) of the preseason....

Since 1993 the ATS record for this system is....28-8....77.8%....

Over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....6-0....100%....

Over the last 10 seasons the system's record is....16-2....88.8%....


Pitt.-1....

Big Ben should play more than he did last week & the Pitt. defense has played well during the preseason....

Play On - Road teams (Pitt.) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in week four of the preseason....

Since 1993 the ATS record for this system is....36-13....73.5%....

Over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....6-0....100%....

Over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....8-1....88.8%....


Good luck....

 

[AR182]

I may be pushing my luck but I went ahead & played another over....

Over 42 (120) SD / NO....

SD is 9-0 over after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game since 1993....The average score was SD 26.3, Opponent 22.3....

SD is 11-1 over after allowing 4 or less yards/play in their previous game since 1993....The average score was SD 24.8, Opponent 21.6....


Good luck....

 

[Hooks]

AR ...

Are these stats for the preseason or the real deal. Just makin sure :shrug:

 

[AR182]

AR ...

Are these stats for the preseason or the real deal. Just makin sure :shrug:

Hooks....

Some info state that the it pertains to the preseason, while others don't....But since this week teams usually play pretty seriously, I am using them....It's up to each reader if they want to use them or not....

Good luck....

 

[Hooks]

Gotcha, good luck

 

[AR182]

Phil....ML....

Phil's first team offense hasn't scored a TD yet in this preseason. So I look for them to perform at the top of their game in this matchup....& think that their defense should be able to contain the KC offense....

Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (Phil)- after 1or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the preseason....

Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....38-8....82.6%....

Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Final play for the week....

Over 36 (120) Jax / TB....

Sorry that I don't have any writeup for this game....


Summary of my plays....

Over 36 (120) Az / Chi....
SF+1....
Pitt-1....
Over 42 (120) SD / NO....
Phil....ML....
Over 36 (120) Jax / TB....

Good luck....

 

[freelancc]

good luck my friend. :0008

 

[AR182]

Thanks Lance....

Adding 2 more plays....

Atlanta+2....

Atl. is 11-0 ATS after a loss by 14 or more points since 1993....

Play On - Underdogs or pick (Atl.) - after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards/attempt in last game against opponent after gaining 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game....

Since 1993 the record for this system is....23-6....79.3%....

The system's record this pre-season is....1-0....


Over 34 (120) Wash / Jets....

Play Over - Road teams against the total ( Wash) - after scoring 6 points or less last game.....

Since 1993 the record for this system is....38-13....74.5%....

Over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....9-1....100%....


Good luck....

 

[MrChristo]

BOL as always AR...

...but having some math problems...(every chance it's all wrong this end! :142smilie )

The only difference between SF and Pits systems is that SF are dogs, yeah?

So if dogs specifically are 28-8 [since '93]...makes the rest (ie. Pits as favs) 8-5 [given the 36-13]...

So, not sure how they can be (system-wise of course) 8-1 last 10 years... :shrug:

I could easily be way off in my current condition tho!! :facepalm:

:toast:

 

[AR182]

Mr C....yeah it can be confusinng....

The Pitt.system pertains to all road teams, whether favorites or dogs in this situation, while the SF system pertains only to road dogs....


Good luck....

 

[AR182]

Boy I can't believe how the Dallas / Houston line took off with some books having Houston favored by 5....

Went 3-1 yesterday which brings my preseason record to 7-2 for the year....

I still have these plays pending....

Over 36 (120) Az / Chi....
SF+1....
Pitt-1....
Over 36 (120) Jax / TB....

Good luck....

 

[FirstnGoal]

Phil....ML....

Phil's first team offense hasn't scored a TD yet in this preseason. So I look for them to perform at the top of their game in this matchup....& think that their defense should be able to contain the KC offense....

Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (Phil)- after 1or more consecutive losses against the spread, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% in the preseason....

Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....38-8....82.6%....

Good luck....

I didnt see your writeup on the game till this morning but I put a little change on the Eagles -1.5 with the local yesterday...I would have increased my wager with him had I known about the system.

Either way = :toast:

 

[AR182]

Thanks First....Good luck also....:toast:


Adding another play....

Carolina....ML....

Tenn. played last MNF & now has an unusual 5 day turn-around to play their next game....Carolina has scored a total of 15 points in their 2 preseason game, so i look for more urgency from them tonight than from Tenn....

2 systems....

Play On - Any team vs the money line (Car.)- after gaining 4.5 or less passing yards/attempt in 2 straight games....

Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....81.5%....

The systen's record this season is....1-0....


Play Against - Any team vs the money line (Tenn.)-after allowing 14 points or less last game against opponent after scoring 6 points or less last game....

Over the last 10 seasons the record for this system is....77.8%....

Over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....7-0....100%....


Good luck....

 

[T OFF]

tailed ur atl play

tailed ur atl play

again AR appreciate all you do for us bud

:0008

 

[AR182]

again AR appreciate all you do for us bud

:0008

My pleasure T OFF....Appreciate your post....

 

[Tiny]

very AR182, keep up the great capping!

 

[MadJack]

....

:0008

 

[AR182]

Thanks guys....

Final play....

Balt.-4....

Giants are out of sync on their offensive line with players playing out of position & since they are a timing offense, think they will have trouble in this game with the Balt. defense....Also Harbaugh has stated that they will play every game to win....

Giants are 3-13 ATS in week four of the preseason since 1993....

Giants are 9-23 ATS in the last two weeks of the preseason since 1993.


Good luck....

 

[eeeerock]

Of course I missed seeing your Balty play,the easy winner.I'm the worst tailor.