College Plays from 9/2-9/6....
- Thread starter AR182
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Good luck this year, always enjoy reading!
FWIW, Just looked at the games and was leaning the other way in the Pitt/Utah game, unranked home fave play
FWIW, Just looked at the games and was leaning the other way in the Pitt/Utah game, unranked home fave play
Thanks guys....Appreciate the comments....
Coach_K....
I just came upon this artilce....
By Allen Moody, About.com Guide
College Football's Unranked Favorites
Many sports bettors are aware of the college basketball system that says to play unranked favorites when they are favored over a ranked team. It's one of the oldest college basketball betting systems around.
The rationale is that an unranked team favored over a ranked college basketball team is a pretty good club in its own right and will be ready to knock off an opponent that is supposedly better than they are.
The other reason the system has followers is that is seemingly a case where the oddsmakers know more than the public, as the public is expected to back the ranked team, as it is a better team, at least in the eyes of the public.
Naturally, a bettor would expect the system to transfer over to college football, as it uses the same principles. But that isn't the case.
The Results
Using the new 2010 Stat Attack For College Football program, it soon was obvious that unranked college football teams were horrible bets, going just 3-15 against the spread last year and were a dismal 9-31 over two years.
The dismal spread record wasn't a one- or two-year fluke, as the results show that over the past five years, unranked teams are just 13-73 against the spread when favored over a ranked opponent.
If you want to look back 10 years, it's more of the same, as these teams check in with just a 27-150 ATS record. Going back 15 years, the results are 34-203 against the spread.
Going back 20 years will show these teams are just 43-260 against the spread. Going back 25 years, which is the full Stat Attack database, shows that these teams are 47-301 (13.5%) against the spread.
Money Line Bets
While favored teams have been dismal against the point spread when favored over a ranked team, they haven't fared much better straight up. Naturally, that can lead to some solid money line wagers, where you stand to win more than you risk.
The past two years, these teams are just 12-28 straight up and only 19-67 straight up over the past five years. Over the past 25 years, unranked favorites are just 72-276-1 (20.7%) straight up.
Naturally, just because a method has worked in the past does not mean it will work in the future, but this system has proven to be extremely consistent over a long period of time. I'll definitely be betting that it does continue for the 2010 season.
Remember, the next time you see me gushing about a Stat Attack program, this system is the type of thing that bettors can uncover using the programs. Now you see why I saw they're worth their weight in gold.
Yikes - Thank you for the heads up. Pitt is probably the better team but Utah is also pretty good and dont have to travel. Waiting till thursday to see the line but this article may have just flipped my opinion.
The thing about this article & any other info that we get is the credibility factor of the source of the info....As with this article, I usually don't verify it & tend to rely on it's accuracy....Maybe somebody who reads this thread has the means to verify the artilce....
Those are pretty amazing numbers. Using Phil Steele's preview magazine, I checked the ACC for the last five years, and the unranked teams favoried over ranked teams were 12-7 ATS (unranked pick-'ems were 2-0 ATS). I think the figures in that article are bogus.
By the way, I really like your unders. Good luck.
UConn is the play, but just an FYI, Tate Forcier is returning but not starting Saturday. Denard Robinson will be the guy.
:142smilie
Believe it or not I have another one to go to this weekend....& it gets to be too much sometime. Especially now because of football....
Thanks BBC....good luck also....
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Under 54 (120) Memphis / Miss. St....
Memphis returns 7 from last year's starting offense & 6 from the defense....They have a new head coach & a new QB....& their starting running back recently quit the team....
Miss. St. returns 7 from the offense & 7 from the defense....They have a new intended starting QB (Reif), but he has not been participating in the practices the last few days & I couldn't find out why....They also have to replace Anthony Dixon who was the majority of their offense last season....
With both teams losing their major offensive weapons in their running backs from last year & with both teams starting quarterbacks who have little or no college experience, I don't see how the total scored in this game ever reaches....Not to mention Memphis having to learn a whole new offensive system & MSU having a big game next Thursday against Auburn....
The statistical site that I use tracks past line movements & they state that since 1992, there have been 60 games with similiar totals movement....& out of those 60 games, 40 went under the total, while 20 games went over the total....
Good luck....
Memphis returns 7 from last year's starting offense & 6 from the defense....They have a new head coach & a new QB....& their starting running back recently quit the team....
Miss. St. returns 7 from the offense & 7 from the defense....They have a new intended starting QB (Reif), but he has not been participating in the practices the last few days & I couldn't find out why....They also have to replace Anthony Dixon who was the majority of their offense last season....
With both teams losing their major offensive weapons in their running backs from last year & with both teams starting quarterbacks who have little or no college experience, I don't see how the total scored in this game ever reaches....Not to mention Memphis having to learn a whole new offensive system & MSU having a big game next Thursday against Auburn....
The statistical site that I use tracks past line movements & they state that since 1992, there have been 60 games with similiar totals movement....& out of those 60 games, 40 went under the total, while 20 games went over the total....
Good luck....
N. Illinois+4....
This may be a sucker bet because imo this matchup doesn't warrant the line to be this high....
N. Illinois returns 7 on offense & 8 on defense from last year's starters....Although NI was inconsistent last season, they did win at Purdue & lost by 1 score at Wisconsin....Last season they averaged 4.8 ypr & 198 ypg on the ground & they may be even be better this year because they added last season's #1 Juco rusher....
Iowa St. returns 8 & 4 respectively, but lost 5 of their top 7 tacklers from last season's team....A defense that allowed 4.9 ypr on the ground....
Iowa St. has a big game next week vs. Iowa, while N.Ill's next game is against N. Dakota....
A system that supports this play....
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N. Illinois) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season.....
Since 1992 the ATS record for this system is....28-6....82.4%....
Over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....6-1....85.7%....
Over the last 10 seasons the system's record is....20-3....86.9%....
Good luck....
This may be a sucker bet because imo this matchup doesn't warrant the line to be this high....
N. Illinois returns 7 on offense & 8 on defense from last year's starters....Although NI was inconsistent last season, they did win at Purdue & lost by 1 score at Wisconsin....Last season they averaged 4.8 ypr & 198 ypg on the ground & they may be even be better this year because they added last season's #1 Juco rusher....
Iowa St. returns 8 & 4 respectively, but lost 5 of their top 7 tacklers from last season's team....A defense that allowed 4.9 ypr on the ground....
Iowa St. has a big game next week vs. Iowa, while N.Ill's next game is against N. Dakota....
A system that supports this play....
Play On - Road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points (N. Illinois) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, team that had a winning record last season.....
Since 1992 the ATS record for this system is....28-6....82.4%....
Over the last 3 seasons the system's record is....6-1....85.7%....
Over the last 10 seasons the system's record is....20-3....86.9%....
Good luck....
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Thanks Joe....Same to you....
Purdue+11.5....
Purdue returns 5 starters from last year's offense & 6 from the defense....Their new QB is Miami transfer Robert Marve....Last year Purdue beat both Ohio St. & Michigan & almost beat Oregon....
ND returns 5 from last year's offense & 9 from the defensive side of the ball....They have a new coach in Kelly, who imo will bring ND back to elite status....but it will take time....Think ND will go through the learning pains other schools go through when a new coach is brought into the program....
Here are a 2 systems that support this play....
Play Against - A home team (ND) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 58% or worse, with 5 offensive starters returning.
Over the last 10 seasons the ATS record for this system is....33-4....89.2%....
Over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....23-1....95.8%....
Play Against - A home team (ND) - first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, with 5 offensive starters returning....
Over the last 10 seasons the ATS record for this system is....30-8....78.9%....
Over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....16-3....84.2%....
Good luck....
Purdue+11.5....
Purdue returns 5 starters from last year's offense & 6 from the defense....Their new QB is Miami transfer Robert Marve....Last year Purdue beat both Ohio St. & Michigan & almost beat Oregon....
ND returns 5 from last year's offense & 9 from the defensive side of the ball....They have a new coach in Kelly, who imo will bring ND back to elite status....but it will take time....Think ND will go through the learning pains other schools go through when a new coach is brought into the program....
Here are a 2 systems that support this play....
Play Against - A home team (ND) - poor passing defense from last season - allowed a comp pct of 58% or worse, with 5 offensive starters returning.
Over the last 10 seasons the ATS record for this system is....33-4....89.2%....
Over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....23-1....95.8%....
Play Against - A home team (ND) - first month of the season, after closing out last season with 4 or more losses in last 5 games, with 5 offensive starters returning....
Over the last 10 seasons the ATS record for this system is....30-8....78.9%....
Over the last 5 seasons the system's record is....16-3....84.2%....
Good luck....
Northern Illinois is a solid play. They are one of only two teams in the MAC that play solid football on both sides of the ball, the other being Temple. I really like coach Kill and think they get it done. Like the under there as well as this game should be heavily played on the ground resulting in a quick clock.
Saw you mentioned the Akron game so I'll chime in. I am on both the ML and spread but just small plays as I will be there to watch it. My reasons being that the Cuse has a lot of inexperience on the field and the Zips will be very highly motivated for a rare home game vs. a team from a power conference.
There will be some growing pains for Akron, no doubt, but I think Rob Ianello will be a damn good coach and will find a way to keep it close. Nicely should develop into a pretty good QB. and the Zips were really banged up when they faced the orange last year.
Ianello is reputed to be a great recruiter so in a couple of years this often suffering program may well be on the rise
.
Lean to the under here as well.
Always love reading your stuff Al , hope you have a great season.
Saw you mentioned the Akron game so I'll chime in. I am on both the ML and spread but just small plays as I will be there to watch it. My reasons being that the Cuse has a lot of inexperience on the field and the Zips will be very highly motivated for a rare home game vs. a team from a power conference.
There will be some growing pains for Akron, no doubt, but I think Rob Ianello will be a damn good coach and will find a way to keep it close. Nicely should develop into a pretty good QB. and the Zips were really banged up when they faced the orange last year.
Ianello is reputed to be a great recruiter so in a couple of years this often suffering program may well be on the rise
.
Lean to the under here as well.
Always love reading your stuff Al , hope you have a great season.
Thanks fcp....Same to you & enjoy the game....
Under 43 (120) N. Carolina / LSU....
I think the total is too high even with the suspensions.... LSU's total offense last year was ranked #112 in the country....Don't know what NC's was but it couldn't be much better....I also think that the suspensions will be stretched out over a few games if there are many....
Also have read that the betting public is correct when moving the total upward in LSU games 38.7% (48-76) of the time since 1992....
Good luck....
Under 43 (120) N. Carolina / LSU....
I think the total is too high even with the suspensions.... LSU's total offense last year was ranked #112 in the country....Don't know what NC's was but it couldn't be much better....I also think that the suspensions will be stretched out over a few games if there are many....
Also have read that the betting public is correct when moving the total upward in LSU games 38.7% (48-76) of the time since 1992....
Good luck....
Really like the Purdue play. Just to add, the underdog in this series is 11-5 ATS since 1993. Agree with the write up completely .
Good luck
Good luck
Thanks Benny....Good luck also....
Went 0-2-1 yesterday....Luckily for me yesterday's preseason plays lessened the loss somewhat....Onward & upward....
Under 50 (120) Kentucky / Louisville....
Both teams have new coaches this year....The Kentucky coach was an ass't. on last year's Kent. staff, so he should know the team somewhat....The Lou. coach was defensive coordinator on Fla. so he should be familiar with the Kentucky players....Kent. has an inexperience offensive line that lost 2 all-SEC 2nd teamers from last season....
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Kent.) (The total is 49 now) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games....
Over the last 10 seasons the ATS record for this system is....34-11....75.6%....
The average total posted in these games was: 45.8....The average score in these games was.... Team 19.8, Opponent 18.4 (Total points scored = 38.3)....The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28....62.2% of all games.....
Good luck....
Went 0-2-1 yesterday....Luckily for me yesterday's preseason plays lessened the loss somewhat....Onward & upward....
Under 50 (120) Kentucky / Louisville....
Both teams have new coaches this year....The Kentucky coach was an ass't. on last year's Kent. staff, so he should know the team somewhat....The Lou. coach was defensive coordinator on Fla. so he should be familiar with the Kentucky players....Kent. has an inexperience offensive line that lost 2 all-SEC 2nd teamers from last season....
Play Under - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 (Kent.) (The total is 49 now) - in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses, average team from last season that won between 45-55% of their games....
Over the last 10 seasons the ATS record for this system is....34-11....75.6%....
The average total posted in these games was: 45.8....The average score in these games was.... Team 19.8, Opponent 18.4 (Total points scored = 38.3)....The number of games in which this system covered the total by 7 or more points was 28....62.2% of all games.....
Good luck....
