ALDS Game One

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Stadium ? Tropicana Field plays completely opposite compared to the hitters paradise of Rangers Ballpark in Arlington. Tropicana is a pitcher?s dream with a spacious center field.


What to look for when the Rangers take the field?

Cliff Lee is getting the call for game one of the series, which is huge for the Rangers to start the series with a legitimate ace.

Against the Rays this season Cliff looks like he has not had his best stuff, going 0-3 with a 4.56 ERA. Looking a little deeper, he has pitched decently by striking out 25, walking two, and not allowing any home runs in 23.2 innings.

The Rangers bullpen is adequate with Darren Oliver and Darren O?Day setting up Neftali Feliz. If the Rangers have a lead after the sixth inning, they should feel confident that the pen should hold onto it.

Defensively, the Rangers are fairly solid. The Ranger?s outfield has the 5th best UZR total for the season at +20.8 UZR. All the outfielders play above average defense with the exception being David Murphy, who is probably only league average. The infield?s UZR over the season is -5.8 UZR. The infield would have been exactly average, except for Michael Young and his -5.8 UZR. While not a great defense, the teams defense ended up as 11th overall in the league according to UZR.

What to look for when the Rangers are batting against David Price?

The Rangers have a couple of key injuries in the outfield that will effect the team. David Murphy looks like he won?t be able to go in game one, but Josh Hamilton will be back to patrol center field. It is tough to know the exact the lineup the Rangers are going to use, but here is my best SWAG using previous game information.

Andrus-SS
Young-3B
Hamilton ? CF
Guerrero-DH
Cruz-RF
Kinsler-2B
Francoeur-RF
Cantu-1B
Molina-C

The order toward the bottom may be changed around, and I think Ron Washington will go with Cantu because he wants to use a right handed bat versus the left handed starter, David Price. The offense has been a strong point of the team this year. Hopefully, Hamilton can remain healthy and re-anchor the lineup after missing the past month.

....thoughts

The Rangers are not receiving as much media love as the other teams in the playoffs . The team is well rounded and, when they acquired Cliff Lee during the season, the Rangers got a much needed ace to match up against the opponent?s ace. This game is not in anyway a must win for the Rangers, but a game one victory would go a long way in helping Texas to their first ever post season series win.


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The playoffs get underway in a few hours live from St. Petersburg. David Price will make his first career postseason start against the Rangers while Cliff Lee declares war . Lee?s tendency to give offenses a collective Glasgow smile raises the importance of Price holding the Rangers off the board. It also makes one wonder how the Rays will possibly score.

One cannot spill ink over this game without mentioning the Rays? 3-0 record versus Lee. But Lee held them to a line of .253/.265/.347 while striking out 25 batters in just 24 innings pitched and did not allow a home run while ? and perhaps more startling for this particular lineup ? walking only two batters. Nearly all of the Rays? runs were created in an emasculating manner for one of the better offenses in the American League, yet credit their run prevention unit for keeping Lee?s squads (twice Seattle, once Texas) silent on the boards long enough to scratch paint off the Titanic?s deck.

Assuming Joe Maddon stays consistent in his approach to southpaws, then B.J. Upton and Jason Bartlett will bat first and second. This is relevant because when Upton delivers offensively, it usually comes at the expense of a lefty. In fact, his .268/.381/.538 line results in the 20th best ISO against lefties this season, ahead of names like Mark Teixeira, Nelson Cruz, Miguel Cabrera, and all of his teammates. Bartlett?s .355 on-base percentage against lefties this year is no fluke and while he provides no pop, he does a nice job of making contact, leading to some potential hit-and-run opportunities if they so present themselves.

Evan Longoria will finally return and one has to think Kelly Shoppach (owner of a .455 slugging percentage versus lefties this season) and Sean Rodriguez (.292/.375/.442 in his first full major league season against lefties) will find themselves taking swings at Lee tomorrow as well. Perhaps the biggest question mark is Carlos Pena, who hit .179/.316/.359 against same-handed pitchers and looked awful while doing so. The Rays? roster guarantees to be flexible when it comes to dexterity and position, but even they cannot platoon every position.

Given what we know about Lee, that depth might be more vital in this game than the rest.

 

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TEX: Cliff Lee

The left-handed Cliff Lee throws a low-90s four-seam fastball and a two-seam fastball (combined 63.6%), a high-80s cutter (19.8%), a mid-80s circle changeup (9.4%), and a mid-70s knuckle curve (5.6%). His curveball has huge downward vertical movement and also moves horizontally toward RHH. The more frequently-used two-seam fastball moves in the other direction toward LHH and away from RHH, as does his changeup. Lee uses his two-seam fastball a lot more often against RHH (46.5%) than against LHH (26.5%). He also uses his changeup much more against RHH (11.9% vs. 2.6%) and his four-seam fastball more against LHH (39.5% vs. 14.7%). RHH whiff on Lee?s changeups (16.9%) and curveballs (17.8%) the most, while LHH are surprisingly more disciplined (Swing% of 48.2% by LHH vs. Swing% of 52.0% by RHH). Of all of his pitches, Lee?s curveball induces the most groundballs from RHH (72.2% of balls put in play being groundballs). Finally, Lee has extremely good control at working the count, where he?s ahead in the count 36.1% of all pitches and behind the count only 18.8% of all pitches.

TB: David Price

The left-handed David Price throws a high-90s four-seam fastball and a low-90s two-seam fastball (combined 74.0%), a high-70s curveball (15.6%), a mid-80s changeup (5.5%), and a mid-80s slider (4.9%). His curveball has more vertical than horizontal movement, which breaks in the direction of RHH. His fastballs go in the opposite horizontal direction toward LHH. Price uses his two-seamer more frequently against RHH and his four-seamer and slider more against LHH. RHH whiff 12.5% of the time against his four-seam fastball and 11.3% of the time against his slider, while LHH whiff 11.1% of the time against his two-seamer. He gets groundballs off RHH through his curveball (65.0%) and off LHH through his four-seamer and slider (53.0% and 64.3%, respectively). Finally, Price also finds himself ahead in the count (31.5%) more often than behind in the count (24.9%).

 

[IE]

playing Lee +119 over Price

good luck everyone this post-season!

 

[IE]

UPDATE, 10:17: Maddon said Soriano returned as scheduled Tuesday night from the Dominican Republic, and that it was to deal with "a personal" matter. Maddon didn't seem too concerned: "It was a personal thing. He asked me for permission, and I just know it was personal, he had to get home for something, and that was it.'' Maddon said Soriano "couldn"t get back" in time for the workout.

DEVELOPING: The promised twist to the Rays lineup wasn't that severe, but it does have a different look, with Jason Bartlett at the top. Also, a slight surprise with Pena at 5th.

The lineup:
Bartlett ss
Upton cf
Crawford lf
Longoria 3b
Pena 1b
Baldelli dh
Zobrist rf
Shoppach c
Rodriguez 2b

Price p

 

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- The lineup that will take the field for the Rangers today in Game 1 of the Division Series will be together for the first time all season. It offers the Rangers the best collection of right-handed hitters to offset Tampa Bay lefty David Price. But it also creates an issue with speed at the back end of the lineup.

The full lineup:

SS Elvis Andrus
3B MIchael Young
CF Josh Hamilton
DH Vladimir Guerrero
LF Nelson Cruz
2B Ian Kinsler
RF Jeff Francoeur
1B Jorge Cantu
C Bengie Molina

Cantu and Molina are the two slowest players on the roster and the chance for rally-killing double plays exist with each one of them, especially if one of them were to reach base ahead of the other. The Rangers could use Molina to bunt Cantu over, as Molina is a good bunter, but it may be where the decision to add Esteban German to the roster really comes into play. German could pinch run and be put in motion to stay out of the double play.

 

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Scouting ALDS Game Two Starters

- October 7, 2010

TEX: C.J. Wilson

The left-handed C.J. Wilson throws a low-90s four-seamer and two-seamer (combined 49.2%), a high-80s cutter (18.6%), a low-80s slider (12.1%), a low-80s changeup (11.7%), and a mid-70s curveball (8.5%). This is how the classification comes out, but reports say that Wilson claims to throw the gyroball, which in reality is probably a hybrid of some of the more common pitch types. His breaking balls move toward right-handed batters, while his two-seam fastball breaks toward left-handed batters sharply. As a result, Wilson uses his two-seamer much more frequently against LHH (44.8%) than against RHH (20.9%). The changeup is utilized more against RHH (14.5%) than LHH (3.4%).

LHH struggle mightily against Wilson, and part of that has to do with not being able to put the ball in play and whiffing. The slider and cutter are his most effective pitches at getting whiffs. The two-seamer induces groundballs when put into play (52.0% for RHH and 66.1% for LHH), while the cutter results in pop-ups when thrown to LHH (16.7% of pop-ups put in play). Finally, Wilson finds himself behind in the count (31.3% of pitches) more often than ahead in the count (25.6% of pitches).

TB: James Shields

The right-handed James Shields throws a low-90s four-seam fastball and a high-80s two-seam fastball (combined 46.1%), a low-80s changeup (24.9%), a mid-80s cutter (15.5%), and a high-70s curveball (13.5%). His curveballs move down and toward left-handed hitters, while his fastballs and changeups have slight movement to right-handed hitters. His changeup is excellent at getting swinging strikes (27.1% of RHH and 17.4% of LHH), a pitch that RHH especially like to chase at.

A notable split is that his curveball is put in play by RHH (19.5%) more than LHH (13.5%). RHH hit line drives off 29.4% of curveballs put in play (31.4% for LHH), while they hit groundballs off 61.5% of changeups put in play (46.1% for LHH). Finally, Shields finds himself ahead in the count (28.8%) slightly more than he does behind in the count (26.5%).

NYY: Andy Pettitte

The left-handed Andy Pettitte throws a low-90s four-seamer and a high-80s two-seamer (combined 57.0%), a mid-80s cutter (20.4%), a mid-70s curveball (15.4%), and a low-80s changeup (7.2%). His curveball has much more horizontal movement (toward the RHH) than vertical movement, while his two-seamer and changeup can move horizontally in the other direction. Pettitte uses his standard fastballs the same way against both RHH and LHH, but uses far more changeups against RHH (9.6% vs. never) and more cutters against LHH (31.7% vs. 16.6%).

In terms of plate discipline, batters whiff the most on Pettitte?s cutters, especially LHH (whiff on 29.9% of cutters, 17.3% for RHH), which explains the cutter usage split. The changeup is usually a pitch that gets swinging strikes, but RHH put Pettitte?s changeup in play (26.6%) far more than they whiff (9.8%), suggesting that his changeup has not been particularly useful or is more of a setup pitch. When looking at the batted ball splits, curveballs stand out as they induce pop-ups frequently (20.7% of curveballs put in play for RHH, thrown rarely against LHH). The two-seam fastball also induces groundballs. Finally, same as Shields, Pettitte is ahead in the count (28.7% of pitches) slightly more often than behind in the count (26.9%).

MIN: Carl Pavano

The right-handed Carl Pavano throws a low-90s sinker and four-seamer (combined 57.1%), a low-80s changeup (21.9%), and a mid-80s slider (20.5%). His sinker is his most used pitch of all, which breaks sharply toward left-handed batters. Pavano doesn?t own a pitch that can break in the other direction, nor does his slider have particularly large vertical movement.

Still, Pavano has enjoyed success this season, a lot of it due to his mix of sinkers and changeups. His changeup gets 15.7% of RHH and 16.1% of LHH to whiff, while his sinker is used to pitch to contact (28.4% of RHH and 24.1% of LHH put sinkers into play). 57.1% of sinkers put in play are groundballs for RHH (45.2% for LHH). But his changeup induces even more groundballs (59.2% for RHH, 66.7% for LHH). Not only does his changeup induce the most whiffs of any pitch, but when put in play, they are more often groundballs than any other batted ball type. Finally, the key to Pavano?s revived success this season, he has steered clear away from being behind in the count (22.5% of pitches), finding himself with an advantage ahead in the count (32.5%) much more often.

 

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ALDS Game Two Preview: Tampa Bay

by R.J. Anderson - October 7, 2010

Many pundits will label this as a must-win affair for the Rays. That is not entirely correct since this is only a must-win in order to avoid must-win games in this series until the weekend. For this must-win-to-avoid-a-must-win, the Rays turn to their most experienced starter, the elderly James Shields.

Shields is not without his own childish controversies. Just ask the local radio caller who suggested the Rays? braintrust turned to him in game two only because of his Jewish beliefs. You see, the Rays management includes some names that end in ?man? and ?stein? and therefore they are just part of one large Zionist conspiracy to overtake the world. Shields, being from California with curly hair, is just another example of the Jewish-based agenda. The host dispatched Mr. Rick Sanchez?s concerns by pointing out that Gabe Kapler ? a member of the Rays who is actually, um, Jewish ? is nowhere to be found on the roster despite his beliefs.

Matt Garza is so much better than Shields that it?s evident why some would resort to truth telling like our friend on the radio. Garza had the better FI ? well, not quite, but his xFIP was ? not better either. He did have the better ERA though, and hey he throws harder. Shields didn?t even have a better ERA during the 2008 playoffs than ? well, gosh, yes he did.

Shields? problems this season are rooted in home runs and batting average on balls in play inflation. There?s no need to hand wave those away as just flukes because Shields has always had a slightly above league average rate in both, but not to this extent. Color me skeptical on Shields? supposed flaring hittability given his career best strikeout rates. There are some thoughts that his fastball command has slipped, perhaps due to overthrowing, but at the end of the day that stuff is pretty hard to prove.

In reality, Shields over Garza means next to nothing unless the Rays have to go to David Price in game four. It?s the next series where the two slot tends to ensure two starts. Besides, Shields appears to match up with the Rangers well, as Jason Hanselman shows here, using the Rangers? contact and slugging percentages based on pitch types. That will only come into play if Shields uses his changeup, something he did little of last time out in a truly weird outing against Kansas City.

Expect the Rays to roll with mostly the same lineup against C.J. Wilson, who ? at least check ? is not Cliff Lee. That should boost offensive expectations and morale, even if only a little bit.

 

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ALDS Game Two Preview: Texas

by Jeff Zimmerman - October 6, 2010

It was a nice win for the Rangers today and they look to go up 2-0 with another win tomorrow. The only major change from game one to game two is that James Shields and C.J. Wilson get the call as the starters.

One knock against Shields is that he has been inconsistent this season.


Wilson has put up better Game Scores across the entire season when compared to Shield?s starts. Wilson had fifteen Game Scores over sixty, while Shields only put up six over sixty. Besides have more good games, Wilson?s bottom 5 performances don?t drop off like Shield?s bottom 5.

Each game that a starter does better, he gives he team a better chance of winning, no matter if he offically gets the win or the loss. Here are the team?s Win/Loss records when each pitcher pitched to a certain level of Game Score:



The pitcher?s team usually won when the pitcher was able to achieve a game score of 56 or higher. If Shields can post Game Scores like his regular season numbers, he has about a 25% chance of throwing a great game, 50% of the time the game will be a toss up and 25% of the time it will be clunker. Wilson on the other hand had 50% of his game great, 30% in the toss up range and 20% in the bottom range. Shields season was consistently inconsistent over the season, while Wilson was generally consistently good.

The chances for the Rangers to win tomorrow?s game look good considering the scheduled pitchers. The Rays need to hope the ?Good? Shields shows up to have a chance to even up the series.

 

[IE]

The Rays didn't start the playoffs the way they wanted to Wednesday, not with David Price pitching poorly, the defense askew and the offense again unproductive in a 5-1 loss.

And as they go into Game 2 against the Rangers this afternoon, they acknowledge that without a better effort they could be all but done.

"This is a must win," third baseman Evan Longoria said. "It's tough to win on the road, let alone being in a playoff atmosphere and winning on the road. So (today) is the biggest game of the year."

There is more of a margin than that, of course ? the Rangers would need to win another game, with the American League division series shifting to Texas for the weekend ? but not much: Of the 45 teams that lost the opener of a best-of-five postseason series at home, only 12 have come back to win. And only one, the 2001 Yankees, did so after losing the first two games at home.

Manager Joe Maddon wouldn't put any more importance on today's game, saying he wants the Rays to treat it like any other, but he is expected to make some lineup changes, such as sitting down struggling Carlos Pe?a against tough lefty C.J. Wilson, with Ben Zobrist moving to first. Also, there is some question if Rocco Baldelli will be able to play.

The Rays will put the ball, and their hopes, in the right hand of James Shields, the struggling veteran determined to prove his Big Game nickname is more applicable than his big-number (13-15, 5.18) stat line.

"This is the time," Shields said. "The team needs me. This is definitely the game they need me to go out and pitch my game, and I definitely have enough confidence right now to be able to do that. I want the ball. I thrive to be in this type of situation. I've done that ever since I got called up to the big leagues."

There was discussion over where the Rays would slot Shields into the rotation, and they chose Game 2 primarily so he would pitch in the more-friendly confines of the Trop than homer-happy Texas.

But now the Rays say they set it up exactly for this potential scenario, needing, well, a big game from Big Game.

"Definitely, it wouldn't be a bad time for him to live up to that name," said leftfielder Carl Crawford, who could be playing his final home game as a Ray today.

"It's almost like he sees a shot at redemption, though that may be a bit dramatic," pitching coach Jim Hickey said. "But it's one of those things where one good start in the postseason can erase a lot of regular-season memories and woes."

Shields can't do it alone ? though Roy Halladay pretty much did for the Phillies on Wednesday night ? and the rest of the Rays need to step up, too.

The game they played before a national television audience and a soldout plaid-wearing crowd of 35,474 was nothing like what they did to win 96 games ? except for maybe the minimal offense.

Longoria said he thought they were "a little bit tight" and hoped they addressed that today. Shields said they "need to focus on playing our game a little bit better."

Price, a 19-game winner, Cy Young candidate and Sports Illustrated cover boy, wasn't sharp in his first postseason start, and it showed early as he allowed runs in four of the first five innings. The nine hits he allowed were his second most of the season, and the two home runs (Nelson Cruz and Bengie Molina) were his most in a game since May.

"Very frustrating," Price said.

The defense wasn't crisp, with two errors on throws that Pe?a didn't scoop, and there were a few other plays that weren't made, as balls dropped in or scooted by.

"We didn't play our game on defense," Maddon said.

And the offense wasn't opportunistic, which is the worst thing to be against Cliff Lee, who doesn't give a team many chances. So it wasn't a good sign when the Rays wasted a prime one in the first inning, loading the bases with three singles ? though a questionable foul-ball call on Pe?a by home-plate umpire Tim Welke factored in ("The wrong call," Pe?a said), as did a conservative decision by third-base coach Tom Foley to hold up Jason Bartlett at third and not try to score from second on Longoria's single.

And they wasted another opportunity in the second after a Zobrist leadoff double.

"Kind of a no-brainer. You get a chance to score runs off (Lee), you've got to capitalize," catcher Kelly Shoppach said.

The Rays talked about their resiliency, about how they bounced back after losing the first two games of a big series in New York last month, about how despite being frustrated and disappointed they remain confident they could rebound, starting with Shields.

"We've got to use exactly what got us here," Pe?a said. "We've gone this far, and we're going to go down or all the way to the World Series and win it with the guys that got us here. ? I'm looking forward to (today). I like our chances."

 

[IE]

fast facts

Digging a hole

Going into this postseason, there have been 96 five-game playoff series (division series since 1995, league championship series 1969-84). Numbers that could be hopeful or alarming for Rays fans from those 96 five-game series:

? Teams that lost Game 1 at home but won series: 12-33 (.267 winning pct.)

? Last team to lose Game 1 at home but win series: 2005 Angels vs. Yankees

? Since 1995, teams that lost Game 1 at home: 8-20 (.286)

Other five-game series tidbits

? 39 sweeps (41 percent)

? Teams that win Game 1: 70-26 to win series (.729 winning percentage)

? Teams that win Game 2: 76-20 (.792)

 

[IE]

post season to date:

1-0 +1.19

playing:

Wilson +110 over Shields

 

[IE]

Moreland, Treanor, Borbon in Texas lineup


ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - Texas altered its lineup for Game 2 of the American League Division Series with Josh Hamilton moving from left field to center, and Mitch Moreland, Matt Treanor and Julio Borbon inserted in the lineup.

Hamilton started in 87 games in left field and 29 games in center. Moreland, who joined the Rangers on July 27, will start at first base. Treanor will start in place of Bengie Molina. Borbon will start in left.

Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon was examining matchups before submitting his lineup.


Here is the Rangers' lineup:

Andrus ss

Young 3b

Hamilton cf

Guerrero dh

Cruz rf

Kinsler 2b

Moreland 1b

Treanor c

Borbon cf



Wilson p

 

[IE]

post season to date:

2-0 +2.29

Friday:

Cincinnati Reds vs Philadelphia Phillies Over 7.0 -120

 

[IE]

ALDS Game Three Preview: Tampa Bay
- October 9, 2010

Saturday night?s affair marks the first of (potentially) three games where the Rays face elimination in this series. The 2001 Yankees are the only home team to lose the first two games of the series and wind up advancing. History does not bode well for the Rays and nor do simulations or probabilities. Say, for instance, the Rays hold a 60% chance of winning each game. They do not, but say they do. That would result in about a 22% shot of winning the series.

Certain human beings like to say that games are not played on calculators (or spreadsheets) and instead are played on the field. Those human beings are correct, and so here we are, with Matt Garza and Colby Lewis dueling in the Arlington dusk. Words cannot express how tempting the idea of invoking wordplay about gunslingers and the whole Wild West lexicon is ? I mean, I just used dueling and dusk ? but alas, Lewis slings no heated-metal cylinders and ruins the whole scheme.

Even without the Texas heat, Lewis held the superior strikeout rates to Garza, while also besting him in every run metric featured on FanGraphs. That?s a bad sign for Tampa Bay?s chances, but hey, Lewis throws with this right arm. That means the return of Matt Joyce to the starting lineup. Joyce hit .263/.388/.526 against righties this year, and could slide into the lineup behind Evan Longoria. Carl Crawford, who could be playing in his final game while wearing Rays garb, hit .334/.381/.554 versus righties this year too. Carlos Pena, John Jaso, Dan Johnson seem likely to join the starting lineup as well.

Those numbers do not guarantee success in a single game, but you know, after the first two games, can the offense really play any worse? If the Rays do win, it?ll be interesting to see if the Rays stick with Wade Davis in game four or slide to David Price, making James Shields the default starter for a potential game five with the entire staff available in relief. That?s getting ahead of the count though ? something the Rays? offense hasn?t done enough this series.

 

[IE]

post season to date:

3-0 +3.29

playing Saturday:

Lewis -119 over Garza