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    Two words...

    Mack Brown Go MICHIGAN!
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    PHL/MIN Total: How high is up?

    Under is the play tonight in the MIN/PHL game, and here's why: Six of MIN's 16 games last year went over 50 points, and only four of the Eagles games did. That's only 10 of 32 games. In such a game, where everyone is expecting a shootout, it is logical to expect the coaches to try to play...
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    Derby Week Handicapping Need

    My heavy-duty horse handicapping is now limited to Derby week (this will be my 19th), and I always like to have a different set of decent speed/pace figs to use rather than relying on the Beyers like every other Tom/Dick/Harry. Had great success for several years with Bill Olmsted's figs, but...
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    Hilton vs. ********* System

    Started tracking this system two years ago, and has been consistently pretty successful. Last year was 57% and prev. year was 55%. Week 1 last year was 5-2. In short, it views the Hilton players as the "smart money" and when there's a big differential between the percentage of Hilton players...
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    Handicapping for Idiots

    This is one of the few weeks where the public perception is so easily identifyable and so blatantly wrong. We're all more fired up about Week One than just about any other week of the season, and we all have probably spent more time handicapping this week, both because we've been doing our...
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    Friday Night Halftimes

    ATL/MIA: Nolan rules 4 & 6 both apply on the under. Not sure they're battletested on preseason, but WTF.
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    Tourney Time Power Rating System

    A power rating system that was good for me at tourney time last year, but sucks during the regular season, was 18-5 yesterday! No, I didn't use them all. Definitely an aberration, but here are the ones this system flags for today: WISC ILL MICH DUKE MD COL LSU KY TN UCONN TULS UNLV UCI CAL...
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    May have a chance...

    ... to win $12,500 on a $50 prop bet: TB to win by 43 or more. Two TDs away is still a lot from here.
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    How the heck did Corollo get the Super Bowl?

    I thought the NFL had some kind of ranking system to pick the best ref /crew for the Super Bowl. Corollo can't even be in the top 50 percentile. Unless the guy with the broomstick up his butt (Jerry Seeman) is still running the refs. But I thought he retired.
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    Smarter Money System

    Week 1: 11-9 55% Week 2: 16-8 67% Week 3: 16-11 59% Week 4: 13-9 59% Week 5: 9-9 50% Week 6: 9-7 56% Week 7: 9-9 50% Week 8: 9-8 53% YTD: 92-70 57% Early Games: WV BALL OHIO
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    Smarter Money System

    Week 1: 11-9 55% Week 2: 16-8 67% Week 3: 16-11 59% Week 4: 13-9 59% Week 5: 9-9 50% Week 6: 9-7 56% Week 7: 9-9 50% YTD: 83-62 57% Early Games: ND
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    Smarter Money System

    Week 1: 11-9 55% Week 2: 16-8 67% Week 3: 16-11 59% Week 4: 13-9 59% Week 5: 9-9 50% Week 6: 9-7 56% YTD: 74-53 58% Early Games: NC ST MINN IND MICH LA-L
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    Smarter Money System

    NFL: Week 1: 7-6 54% Week 2: 3-0 100% Week 3: 4-5 44% Week 4: 5-2 71% Week 5: 2-1 67% YTD: 21-14 60% Early games: WAS CIN HOU Also, Hilton system was 1-2 last week and 18-7 YTD. This week: CIN HOU NE SEA
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    Smarter Money System

    Week 1: 11-9 55% Week 2: 16-8 67% Week 3: 16-11 59% Week 4: 13-9 59% Week 5: 9-9 50% YTD: 65-46 59% Tuesday play: LOUIS
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    Smarter Money System

    NFL: Week 1: 7-6 54% Week 2: 3-0 100% Week 3: 4-5 44% Week 4: 5-2 71% YTD: 19-13 59% Sunday early games: AZ DAL CIN
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    Smarter Money System

    CFB: Week 1: 11-9 55% Week 2: 16-8 67% Week 3: 16-11 59% Week 4: 13-9 59% YTD: 56-37 60% Thursday Night: MINN
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    Smarter Money System

    For methodology explaination, see CFB forum, post 57092. YTD Record: 56% NFL, 60% CFB Morning plays: KC DET CLE
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    The Smarter Money?

    In the elusive hunt for a reliable indicator using consensus statistics from various sources, I am having pretty good success thus far in the College Football season on games where opinions are line up largely on one side, and then comparing the Wagerline and BigGuy consensuses on these games...
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    Contest Consensus

    The Mad Jack's contest consensus is proving to be a good (but not perfect) contrary indicator so far in the tournament: Thursday 6-8 Friday 2-9 Saturday 5-3 Cumulative 13-21 = 38% I don't count games where the number of picks on each side is pretty close. The record on BIG consensuses (more...
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