1/1 Bowls

[Smitty]

a very happy 2025 to all.

my 2025 is off to a very late start. i'm told i have about 20 minutes until we eat. so here goes nothin'...

Peach Bowl
i keep going back and forth on this one. on one hand, texas is sooooo much better. they're undefeated against everyone but georgia. of course, as i think we all know, georgia is certainly a notch or two below where they've been the last few years. that said, arizona st is no georgia.

these teams have one common opponent. az st beat mississippi st by 7 early in the year, but they were up 27-3 at halftime, so it really wasn't as close as the final score indicates. texas beat the bulldogs 35-13.

i was leaning heavily towards texas, until i noticed this... their offense has been pretty anemic away from home. the source i use for yards/play only breaks it down home/away games, so i don't know what they do with neutral site games. which means these numbers may be slightly incomplete, and i don't have time to run the #s myself. but they show Texas averages 6.7 yards/play at home and 5.4 on the road. that's a huge difference. and just looking at how many they've scored away from home...

31 at michigan (ok, impressive. solid start.)
34 against oklahoma in the red river rivalry. they won 34-3 despite having fewer first downs than that powerful oklahoma offense.
27 at vanderbilt (but only 6 after halftime)
20 at arkansas
17 at texas a&m (zero after halftime)
19 against georgia in atlanta (16 in regulation)

AZ St is solid defensively, allowing 5.0 yds/play.

AZ St actually averages more yards/play on the road (6.4) than at home (5.9). But Texas' defense is stout, only giving up 4.0 yards/play, which is second in the country. obviously they've been good, since they're usually winning even when the offense struggles.

and i've just been told "the eggs are going in the pan", which is my cue to wrap things up. so i'm just going to post what i have so far. i'm now strongly leaning towards arizona st. which i'm kinda not happy about. but i may have to take nearly 2 TDs from a team that struggles to score away from home.

it may be only about 30 minutes 'til kickoff by the time i can pick this up. so probably gonna play az st (+ the points and ML) and some under.

 

[rocky mountain]

Smitty,. WR Jordyn Tyson out for Arizona State is not good against this defense. Check out his stats below against some very good competition. Also, missing a top DB for the first half, and will have an 18 yr old trying to cover Texas in his place till the 2nd half.

Sat 11/30	@ ARIZ	W 49-7	8	143	17.9	1	59
Sat 11/23	vs 14BYU	W 28-23	9	125	13.9	0	54
Sat 11/16	@ 16KSU	W 24-14	12	176	14.7	2	41
Sat 11/9	vs UCF	W 35-31	7	99	14.1	2	29
Sat 11/2	@ OKST	W 42-21	8	81

 

[Smitty]

ok, we wrapped up breakfast a little quicker than expected.

rocky, thank you for the info. this is what happens when you sleep in way too late and don't have proper time to dig in. tyson is absolutely a huge loss for that offense. he had 75 catches. the 2nd-most on the team is skattebo, with 37. next is TE who had 29. so their leading WRs coming into this game are Guillory (19 receptions) and Stovall (17). not ideal, especially against a very good texas defense that will be geared up to stop the run. they may just put 10 in the box and let one safety cover all the WRs.

and i forgot about Simmons missing the 1H. he's their 4th-leading tackler.

AZ St's qb, Leavitt, is a freshman. certainly not ideal in a big game. he did throw 23 passes last year at Michigan St. and he had an excellent 2024, completing 63% of his passes with 24 TDs and only 5 INTs, while averaging 8.8 yards/att. he was very good in the big12 championship game... 12 of 17 for 219 and 3 TDs, but obviously he didn't face any game pressure. little different story today against a texas defense that led the country, allowing only 5.4 yards/att.

i still think ewers is a question mark against good teams, but the question is the same as last week against clemson... is az st a good team? if this game stays close, i don't like ewers to handle the pressure. but that is a big if.

ok, somehow made it this far and i've barely mentioned skattebo. of course, watching that human bowling ball is fun. and not just in the run game. as i mentioned, he's their 2nd-leading receiver. and, this is impressive for a running back... he averages 13.7 yards/catch. obviously they need to get him the ball any way they can. texas is probably aware of that. so we'll see if they are able to get him the ball in any space. because between the tackles is gonna be tough.

alright, still nothing crazy on this game. it wouldn't be surprising if texas jumps on top 21-0 and coasts from there. and with simmons out for the 1H, maybe that will happen. but i gotta trust what i found on that texas offense away from home. i don't love it, but i'm gonna ride with the underdogs. that's worked so well in the first playoff games. *sigh*

AZ St (+13.5) 2X
AZ St (ML) 1 to win 4.5

given texas' 2H offensive struggles, plus the return of simmons, i may look for some live opportunities on AZ St and the under. of course, that would me i need to actually WATCH the game live, which pains me.

 

[Smitty]

just saw this prop. kinda like it, but it's a little pricey.

Both teams to score in 3rd quarter - No. 3.1 to win 2.

 

[rocky mountain]

Smitty I played Arizona State Skatteboos +13.5
First half Texas under 17.5
Game under 52.5
Hoping the A State DB rookie can hold up in first half vs Texas deep ball shots. Counting on lots of successful running that moves the clock and a turnover or two and couple red zone stops. Lets get A LIVE today

 

[Smitty]

Smitty I played Arizona State Skatteboos +13.5
First half Texas under 17.5
Game under 52.5
Hoping the A State DB rookie can hold up in first half vs Texas deep ball shots. Counting on lots of successful running that moves the clock and a turnover or two and couple red zone stops. Lets get A LIVE today

yeah, i was very close to betting the under. and, of course, i'm going to start my rose bowl write-up now, which means i'll be playing catch-up.

if texas puts up a couple early scores, that should be a good time to play their TT under.

 

[rocky mountain]

yeah, i was very close to betting the under. and, of course, i'm going to start my rose bowl write-up now, which means i'll be playing catch-up.

if texas puts up a couple early scores, that should be a good time to play their TT under.

Now you tell me 🤓.... should I buy out and wait 🤔

 

[rocky mountain]

Now you tell me 🤓.... should I buy out and wait 🤔

I cancelled out my unders for now.

 

[Smitty]

Now you tell me 🤓.... should I buy out and wait 🤔

never! i don't know about you, but every time i do that, i regret it.

 

[rocky mountain]

I cancelled out my unders for now.

Played A State +16.5 -130. Lots of early commotion in Rocky huddle to start the new year..

 

[Smitty]

I cancelled out my unders for now.

well, shit, now i'm rooting for the over.

 

[rocky mountain]

Played A State +16.5 -130. Lots of early commotion in Rocky huddle to start the new year..

Thanks Smitty. I played Texas -8.5 -130 on A State last drive. Both are for about $350. So I have a middle of 9-16. Think it makes sense, not much risk , no stress! Look forward to following more of your plays today. I was really stressed and frustrated yesterday losing $1,340 to Bama chasing that garbage and fought back. Want to relax for this first one..

 

[rocky mountain]

That freshman db is burnt toast over his head

 

[Smitty]

Rose Bowl

this is kinda an easy one for me. hopefully that's a good thing. i simply don't understand all the love for ohio st. granted, both of these teams benefitted from a weak big 10. but the buckeyes couldn't even step up at home to beat a mediocre michigan team. and last week, they got a home playoff game against a freshman qb. it's hard to go into the horseshoe and win when your qb goes 14 of 31 for 104 yards. that's 3.4 yards/att. tennessee was still able to run the ball. RB lewis, who only averaged 5.3 yards/carry, picked up 77 on 10 carries. in the first matchup between these teams, oregon RB James had 115 yards on 23 carries. with all the talk around the qbs (as usual), the key will be establishing the run. at first glance, ohio st had some success on the ground in the first game. well, judkins, their leading rusher, didn't do jack shit, with 11 carries for 23 yards. however, henderson had 87 yards on 10 carries. well, that is pretty good. BUT... he had a 53-yard run, which means his other 9 carries gained 34 yards. so take out the one big run, and ohio st's top two guys picked up 57 yards on 20 carries. sure, they could break off another big one today, but i'll go with the sample size of 20 carries vs the one.

as for those qbs... i think gabriel is the better qb right now. howard still makes too many mistakes. he's thrown 4 INTs in their last 3 games (1 vs Indiana, 2 vs Michigan, and 1 vs Tennessee). he was excellent in the game at oregon (28 of 35 for 326 with 2 TDs and 0 INTs). he did have a fumble that ohio st recovered.

any time you're expecting a close game, you gotta look at the kickers. ohio st's kicker is... meh. he's only 7 of 11 from 30+, and has a long of 46. oregon's kicker (Atticus Sappington!! How is this guy not a lacrosse player at Duke?) is more reliable, making 14 of 16. HOWEVER... his long is 42. he's only attempted one over 50 yards all year.

granted, ohio st has a strong revenge motivation. especially given the way the game ended. but i simply think oregon is the better overall team, and the ability to run the ball is huge.

as far as the total... of course everybody is expecting a shoot-out, and it's hard not to. the total in the first game was 54.5 and these teams put up 43 in the first half, en route to the 32-31 final. i think this one is going to start slow.

Oregon (+2.5) 4X
Under (56) 4X
1H Under (28.5) 6X

i'm also thinking about an interesting middle... DK has the 1Q under 12.5 (-102) while BetMGM has it at 10.5 (-110). normally, that difference is insignificant. but given oregon's propensity to go for 2 after early TDs, the score could easily be 8-3 after 1. think i'll take a shot. having reduced juice on one end certainly helps.

alright, gonna put these in and then go watch some football.

it will probably be at least a few hours until i get to the late game. pretty much has to be georgia or nothing for me.

 

[Smitty]

as disjointed as az st has looked offensively, they've actually moved down the field 3 times already. leavitt is running for his life every time he drops back.

i grabbed a little Texas TT under (37.5). just missed 38.5.

and i just heard that the sugar bowl will be postponed until tomorrow.

 

[Smitty]

certainly an ugly first half for the sun devils. and, still, they've moved into fg range on 4 drives. i'm not adding any more, but kinda kicking myself for not grabbing a little +27.5.

considering all the pressure leavitt has been under... he hasn't been awful. if he was able to put just a little air on that last throw into the end zone, they have a touchdown.

and, yes, i completely forgot about the debacle that is the arizona st kicking situation.

 

[rocky mountain]

certainly an ugly first half for the sun devils. and, still, they've moved into fg range on 4 drives. i'm not adding any more, but kinda kicking myself for not grabbing a little +27.5.

considering all the pressure leavitt has been under... he hasn't been awful. if he was able to put just a little air on that last throw into the end zone, they have a touchdown.

and, yes, i completely forgot about the debacle that is the arizona st kicking situation.

They had some chances and are still playing hard. Ya never know.

 

[rocky mountain]

Targeting!!! If they don't call it they need to get rid of the rule. Defenseless receiver, hit to the head. Longhorn with the sledgehammer at the 50 yard line.

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Targeting!!!

 

[WhatsHisNuts]

Smity, I'll join you on Oregon. LFG!