COLLEGE BASKETBALL
NO. 3 VILLANOVA at NO. 9 LOUISVILLE
Villanova (9-0 straight-up, 4-1 against the spread) takes its unbeaten record to Kentucky for a Big East clash with Louisville (11-1, 2-7 ATS).
The Wildcats are coming off an impressive 75-53 rout at Temple on New Year?s Eve, covering easily as a nine-point favorite in the annual Big Five battle. Villanova has beaten the spread in four of its five lined games this season, the lone exception being a 62-55 win at Penn as a 10?-point chalk.
Louisville has ripped off five straight victories since its 11-point loss at Kentucky on Dec. 17. However, during that stretch, Rick Pitino?s club his just 1-3 ATS, the lone spread-cover coming in the Cardinals? most recent game, a 58-43 rout of Miami (Fla.) as a two-point chalk on New Year?s Eve. That game marked Louisville?s Big East debut.
The Cardinals have played one of the weakest schedules in the country, facing the likes of Fairleigh ****inson, Detroit, Charleston, Middle Tennessee State, Chicago State, Akron, Richmond and Arkansas in its last 10 games alone. Despite that unimpressive slate, the Pitino?s crew has cashed just twice in nine lined games this season.
The Wildcats have faced just one Top 25 team (Oklahoma), and they won 85-74 as a seven-point home chalk.
Louisville is 10-0 at home, but just 1-6 against the oddsmaker. Villanova is 4-0 (2-1 ATS) on the highway.
The Cardinals average 74.6 points and give up 60.5, while the Wildcats are outscoring their opponents, 82-57.
Louisville has stayed under the total in five straight games and eight of nine that have featured a posted number this season. Villanova is 4-1 ?over? the total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA
NO. 7 MICHIGAN STATE at NO. 6 ILLINOIS
Two of the hottest teams in the country open their Big Ten seasons against one another, with Illinois (14-0, 7-3 ATS) hosting Michigan State (12-2, 5-6 ATS).
After steamrolling through the 2004-05 regular season unbeaten, the Illini are off to another perfect start, having defeated the likes of Missouri, Oregon and North Carolina, all on the road. Their two most recent wins came last week against cupcakes Tennessee-Martin (84-46) and Southeast Missouri State, and Bruce Weber?s team is on a 5-1 ATS run.
Michigan State, which survived an early-season slate that featured games against Gonzaga, Arizona and Georgia Tech, brings an 11-game winning streak into Champagne, Ill. After going 1-5 ATS in their first six games, the Spartans have covered four of their last six.
Illinois has owned this series of late, going 4-1 (5-0 ATS). Last year, the Illini rolled 75-51 at home and 81-68 in East Lansing, easily covering the spread in both.
Michigan State is 4-2 on the road (3-2 ATS), where Tom Izzo?s team has outscored its opponents by an average of six points per game.
Illinois is 9-0 on its own floor (3-2 ATS), winning by an average score of 76-55.
Overall, the Spartans are averaging 82.3 ppg, while the Illini are putting up 75.5. Defensively, Michigan State is surrendering 72.5 ppg, while opponents are netting just 55.6 ppg on 38.8 percent shooting against Illinois.
The over is 4-1 in the Spartans? last five and 3-1 in the Illini?s last four.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
NO. 17 UCLA at NO. 21 ARIZONA
Today?s marquee Pac-10 showdown takes place in Tuscon, where Arizona (9-3, 5-6 ATS) entertains UCLA (11-2, 5-4 ATS).
Both teams are coming off upsets Saturday, only at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Wildcats dumped then-No. 7 Washington 96-95 in overtime, winning as a four-point underdog and extending their winning streak to seven (4-3 ATS). Meanwhile, the Bruins followed up an impressive victory over Stanford with a 68-61 home loss to Cal as a seven-point chalk, snapping an eight-game winning streak (4-1 ATS).
Arizona is 2-0 SU and ATS in Pac-10 play, also winning 70-52 at Washington State. UCLA is 1-1 SU and ATS in conference action.
The Wildcats have dominated the Bruins recently, winning four straight meetings and six of the last seven (5-2 ATS). Last year, Arizona won 76-73 at home as an 11-point chalk and 83-73 in Los Angeles as a 4?-point favorite.
Arizona is 5-0 at home, but just 1-3 against the line. UCLA is 3-1 on the road (2-2 ATS).
The Wildcats outscore the Bruins by an average of 76-69, but UCLA is shooting better from the field, making 49 percent of its shots (38 percent from three-point range) compared with 42.2 percent (29.7 on 3s) for Arizona.
Defensively, the Wildcats yield 64.2 ppg and the Bruins surrender 60.5 ppg.
The under is 7-2 for UCLA this year, having hit in six straight games that featured a posted total. Arizona has soared over the total in four consecutive contests after starting the season 7-1 ?under.? Both of last year?s meetings stayed low after the previous four went high.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA
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Delaney
50m* Villanova
10m* S.Ill, N.Iowa
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The real Animal
Today's Pick: INDIANA STATE
CBB
Southern Illinois vs. Indiana State
7:00 EST
Put me down on the Sycamores of Indiana State. This team beat Indiana and the Hoosiers are the #1 three-point shooting team in the nation. Indiana State also owns a road win at Butler and the Sycamores are 6-1 at home. I?m not sure how tested Southern Illinois is. Granted, the Salukis are hot having covered seven straight, but that?s reflected in tonight?s price. Southern Illinois lost at St. Louis by 14 (ugly defeat) and barely beat Wyoming and Murray State by four points with identical 57-53 scores. 57 points against those two opponents on the road isn?t really worthy of being a 4 ?-point chalk here. In terms of experience, Indiana State has the edge with three starters back compared to two for Southern Illinois. The Salukis are averaging 61 points a game on the road at 39.5 percent from the field. Indiana State is averaging 71 points per contest at home. Indiana State has not shot the ball well in their last three games (all defeats with two of them on the road). This figures to be a low scoring game with the total at 114 ?. Indiana State won?t miss facing Southern Illinois?s Darren Brooks, who won the Missouri Valley player of the year award the last two seasons. I?ll take the home puppy in Indiana State +4 ?.
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Charlie Sports
Thursday January 5 2006
college basketball. southern illinois -3' 500*
college basketball. old dominion-9 30*
college basketball. michigan state+7 20*
college basketball. louisville+3 20*
college basketball. missouri state-9 10*
college basketball. arizona state-2 10* free play