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Ineedwinners

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COLLEGE BASKETBALL

NO. 3 VILLANOVA at NO. 9 LOUISVILLE



Villanova (9-0 straight-up, 4-1 against the spread) takes its unbeaten record to Kentucky for a Big East clash with Louisville (11-1, 2-7 ATS).



The Wildcats are coming off an impressive 75-53 rout at Temple on New Year?s Eve, covering easily as a nine-point favorite in the annual Big Five battle. Villanova has beaten the spread in four of its five lined games this season, the lone exception being a 62-55 win at Penn as a 10?-point chalk.



Louisville has ripped off five straight victories since its 11-point loss at Kentucky on Dec. 17. However, during that stretch, Rick Pitino?s club his just 1-3 ATS, the lone spread-cover coming in the Cardinals? most recent game, a 58-43 rout of Miami (Fla.) as a two-point chalk on New Year?s Eve. That game marked Louisville?s Big East debut.



The Cardinals have played one of the weakest schedules in the country, facing the likes of Fairleigh ****inson, Detroit, Charleston, Middle Tennessee State, Chicago State, Akron, Richmond and Arkansas in its last 10 games alone. Despite that unimpressive slate, the Pitino?s crew has cashed just twice in nine lined games this season.



The Wildcats have faced just one Top 25 team (Oklahoma), and they won 85-74 as a seven-point home chalk.



Louisville is 10-0 at home, but just 1-6 against the oddsmaker. Villanova is 4-0 (2-1 ATS) on the highway.



The Cardinals average 74.6 points and give up 60.5, while the Wildcats are outscoring their opponents, 82-57.



Louisville has stayed under the total in five straight games and eight of nine that have featured a posted number this season. Villanova is 4-1 ?over? the total.



ATS ADVANTAGE: VILLANOVA





NO. 7 MICHIGAN STATE at NO. 6 ILLINOIS



Two of the hottest teams in the country open their Big Ten seasons against one another, with Illinois (14-0, 7-3 ATS) hosting Michigan State (12-2, 5-6 ATS).



After steamrolling through the 2004-05 regular season unbeaten, the Illini are off to another perfect start, having defeated the likes of Missouri, Oregon and North Carolina, all on the road. Their two most recent wins came last week against cupcakes Tennessee-Martin (84-46) and Southeast Missouri State, and Bruce Weber?s team is on a 5-1 ATS run.



Michigan State, which survived an early-season slate that featured games against Gonzaga, Arizona and Georgia Tech, brings an 11-game winning streak into Champagne, Ill. After going 1-5 ATS in their first six games, the Spartans have covered four of their last six.



Illinois has owned this series of late, going 4-1 (5-0 ATS). Last year, the Illini rolled 75-51 at home and 81-68 in East Lansing, easily covering the spread in both.



Michigan State is 4-2 on the road (3-2 ATS), where Tom Izzo?s team has outscored its opponents by an average of six points per game.



Illinois is 9-0 on its own floor (3-2 ATS), winning by an average score of 76-55.



Overall, the Spartans are averaging 82.3 ppg, while the Illini are putting up 75.5. Defensively, Michigan State is surrendering 72.5 ppg, while opponents are netting just 55.6 ppg on 38.8 percent shooting against Illinois.



The over is 4-1 in the Spartans? last five and 3-1 in the Illini?s last four.



ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER





NO. 17 UCLA at NO. 21 ARIZONA



Today?s marquee Pac-10 showdown takes place in Tuscon, where Arizona (9-3, 5-6 ATS) entertains UCLA (11-2, 5-4 ATS).



Both teams are coming off upsets Saturday, only at opposite ends of the spectrum. The Wildcats dumped then-No. 7 Washington 96-95 in overtime, winning as a four-point underdog and extending their winning streak to seven (4-3 ATS). Meanwhile, the Bruins followed up an impressive victory over Stanford with a 68-61 home loss to Cal as a seven-point chalk, snapping an eight-game winning streak (4-1 ATS).



Arizona is 2-0 SU and ATS in Pac-10 play, also winning 70-52 at Washington State. UCLA is 1-1 SU and ATS in conference action.



The Wildcats have dominated the Bruins recently, winning four straight meetings and six of the last seven (5-2 ATS). Last year, Arizona won 76-73 at home as an 11-point chalk and 83-73 in Los Angeles as a 4?-point favorite.



Arizona is 5-0 at home, but just 1-3 against the line. UCLA is 3-1 on the road (2-2 ATS).



The Wildcats outscore the Bruins by an average of 76-69, but UCLA is shooting better from the field, making 49 percent of its shots (38 percent from three-point range) compared with 42.2 percent (29.7 on 3s) for Arizona.



Defensively, the Wildcats yield 64.2 ppg and the Bruins surrender 60.5 ppg.



The under is 7-2 for UCLA this year, having hit in six straight games that featured a posted total. Arizona has soared over the total in four consecutive contests after starting the season 7-1 ?under.? Both of last year?s meetings stayed low after the previous four went high.


ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA

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Delaney

50m* Villanova
10m* S.Ill, N.Iowa
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The real Animal

Today's Pick: INDIANA STATE
CBB
Southern Illinois vs. Indiana State
7:00 EST

Put me down on the Sycamores of Indiana State. This team beat Indiana and the Hoosiers are the #1 three-point shooting team in the nation. Indiana State also owns a road win at Butler and the Sycamores are 6-1 at home. I?m not sure how tested Southern Illinois is. Granted, the Salukis are hot having covered seven straight, but that?s reflected in tonight?s price. Southern Illinois lost at St. Louis by 14 (ugly defeat) and barely beat Wyoming and Murray State by four points with identical 57-53 scores. 57 points against those two opponents on the road isn?t really worthy of being a 4 ?-point chalk here. In terms of experience, Indiana State has the edge with three starters back compared to two for Southern Illinois. The Salukis are averaging 61 points a game on the road at 39.5 percent from the field. Indiana State is averaging 71 points per contest at home. Indiana State has not shot the ball well in their last three games (all defeats with two of them on the road). This figures to be a low scoring game with the total at 114 ?. Indiana State won?t miss facing Southern Illinois?s Darren Brooks, who won the Missouri Valley player of the year award the last two seasons. I?ll take the home puppy in Indiana State +4 ?.

-0--------------------------------------------

Charlie Sports

Thursday January 5 2006

college basketball. southern illinois -3' 500*

college basketball. old dominion-9 30*

college basketball. michigan state+7 20*

college basketball. louisville+3 20*

college basketball. missouri state-9 10*

college basketball. arizona state-2 10* free play
 

Ineedwinners

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ATS LOCK CLUB




4 units on Villanova (-2 1/2) over Louisville,
3 units on Air Force (-6 1/2) over BYU,
4 units on Bradley (-1) over Drake,
4 units on Penn State (+18) over Ohio State
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Totals 4 u


NBA
Clev UNDER 192-
GS UNDER 195

----------------
BRANDON LANES

20 DIME PLAYS



Nova
Bradley
USC Trojans
Mich ST
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MICHAEL CANNON
4♦ Big Ten

Game of the Month

Michigan State vs. Illinois

4♦ Big Ten Game of the Month - MICHIGAN STATE (plus the points vs. Illinois)



Michigan St. is flat out a better team folks. Michigan St. has already played Gonzaga, Arizona and Georgia Tech, winning 2 of three, with the only loss coming to Gonzaga in TRIPLE overtime! They also bring in an 11-game winning streak. The Spartans get it done on both sides of the court. They average more than 82 points a game and hold opponents to 72. They actually rank 14th in NCAA in offense.



Illinois is not a bad team, do not get me wrong. They are 14-0. But aside from an impressive win at North Carolina, they?ve pretty much just beaten up on a bunch of cupcakes. Case in point: Their last two games were against Tennessee-Martin and Southeast Missouri State. They haven?t played a meaningful game since Dec 10th.



Illinois does not have the explosive offense of a year ago, as evidenced by the fact they?re scoring just 75.5 points per game this season, a number that?s inflated because of all the weaklings on their schedule. Defense has been the Fighting Illini?s mainstay, but Tom Izzo?s club can pretty much score at will against anybody. Take the Spartans tonight and don?t be shocked to see an outright upset.



2♦ LOUISVILLE (plus the points vs. Villanova)



Louisville has run off five straight victories since its only loss of the season at Kentucky. Most impressive was Louisville?s Big East debut, a 58-43 rout of Miami has two-point favorites. On the season, the Cardinals are an impressive 10-0 at home. Rick Pitino?s club plays solid at both ends, holding opponents to just 60 points a game while scoring close to 75 themselves. Guard Taquan Dean is the real deal; he is averaging over 16.7 points, 6 boards and 4 assists.



Now granted, Louisville?s schedule has not been tough, but neither has Villanova?s. Like the Cardinals, the Wildcats have faced just one top 25 team (Oklahoma), and that game was at home. Now they?re laying points to a Pitino team that dominates in its own building? Frankly, I don?t get it. But I?ll certainly take the generosity, and so should you. The play is Louisville.



3♦ ROCKETS (plus the points vs. Cleveland)



The Rockets are one of the best road teams in the NBA against the spread, covering 13 of 17 road games, including an outright double-digit upset victory at Washington on Tuesday night. I was on Houston that night, and I?m on them again tonight because they are simply getting too many points! Not only that, but they have dominated Cleveland in recent years, winning four in a row.



With Tracy McGrady back, the Rockets are a completely different ballclub. Throw in the fact that the Cavs return home after a road trip to Milwaukee last night, and all the signs point to an easy Houston cover. Can they win this game outright? Yes. Will they cover this ridiculous number? That is a no brainier.



ROB HOUSE'S I WILL WIN
1,000,000♦ College Basketball
Odds Makers Lament
Game of the Month


West Virginia is just killing teams right now and they are clearly a better team than South Florida. The Odds Makers had no clue with this game as I think this line is a calamity. West Virginia is going to win this game by 20. Listen, if South Florida can lose to Bethune Cookman at home by 7 points, West Virginia should be able to smoke them.

The Mountaineers are too deep and they shoot the ball too well for the Bulls to even think of hanging around in this one. Play West Virginia.


500,000♦ Iowa Hawkeyes

In my mind, Iowa and Wisconsin are pretty equal but I have to give the edge to Iowa because overall they are a better defensive team. The Hawkeyes have won 4 straight and are playing well and with them catching this number tonight, I like them a lot. They should stay within the points if they don't win outright. Play Iowa

500,000♦ NC-Wilmington Seahawks

Delaware sucks. They are 4-7 and NC Wilmington comes it at 9-5 and despite them being on a 3 game losing streak. The Seahawks have the better defensive team and should be able to hold this weak shooting Delaware team down. Play NC Wilmington.


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Their 5,000* play is on Houston plus the points at Cleveland.

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Their 3,000* play goes out on New Mexico State minus the points. Bonus 2,000* play goes out on UNC Wilmington minus the points.

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Ineedwinners

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CHRIS JORDAN
College and Pro Basketball


...
600♦ CLEVELAND CAVALIERS - Houston has lost six of seven, and just because it is coming off its best offensive performance of the season, means nothing to me tonight in Cleveland. The Rockets are still slowed at that end of the court without Yao Ming in the lineup. Check the numbers, they're in black and white: During their seven-game slump, the Rockets averaged just 84 points and shot 37.1 percent from the field. But to say the slump is over - both losing and bad shooting - would be a stretch, since the due theory was certainly in effect. Cleveland won for the eighth time in its last nine games, and come in off a costly 91-84 win over Milwaukee. Larry Hughes is out for six weeks, but I am not worried about the setback with him being gone, as LeBron James will step up to the task tonight for us, and make this a win and cover.

300♦ SOUTHERN ILLINOIS - Since a 4-3 SU and 3-2 ATS start to the season, the Salukis are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games, and that includes a huge win over Wichita State three nights back. SIU has owned this ISU the past two seasons, sporting a 5-0 SU mark, whicle covering two in a row. The good thing is, after tossing out the neutral court showdown in last year's conference tournament - the road team is 4-0 ATS in this series since 2004. And with Indiana State coming in on a three-game skid, I like the Salukis to take care of business tonight.

300♦ CREIGHTON - We're talking about 6-0 SU and 3-1 ATS at home, and the Jays simply will not let us down against Illinois State tonight - NO CHANCE. ISU is 0-4 SU on the highway, and has lost those games by an average of 11 points per loss. It is also 1-4 in its last five overall, and certainly won't have enough to challenge a much better Creighton team in Nebraska. Now, despite the Jays losing its last two on the wood and at the window, this is a team that wins at home by 16, by average, and should have no trouble terrorizing a team it has beaten in four of the last six meetings.

300♦ ILLINOIS - Quite a showdown, as Tom Izzo's bunch tries to thwart the defending National Runner-Up, and quite frankly, I don't see this game being closer than 12 points at any time once the margin is achieved. The Spartans are 4-2 SU and 3-2 ATS on the road this season, but let's not forget who got hammered by Hawaii earlier this season. MSU comes in off wins over the likes of Cleveland State, Florida International, Tennessee Tech and Coppin State, while the Fighting Illni have been playing much tougher competition the entire season, with not so many cupcakes sprinkled in. Count a 32-point win over Quin Snyder's Missouri recently, and that 30-poiunt win at Oregon I gave you one month ago. Illinois has won this clash by an average of 18.5 points per win the last meetings, and nothing should change tonight.

College Basketball
WEST COAST MISMATCH NO. 14
600♦ Nevada at Hawaii
HUGE WAC WINNER ...
600♦ NEVADA - The Wolfpack have to be prepared - there's no other option. It begins tonight on the island, and I believe the top team in my home state will have no trouble with the Warriors, thanks to the components we bring to this game. Not to mention, a bit of tenacity toward avenging a loss at St. Mary's on New Year's Eve.



The Wolfpack know this trip is no day at the beach, as evidenced by a 2-0 SU and ATS run the last two times to Hawaii. Besides, on this particular trip to Honolulu, it's the fact they got to spend a couple of hours on Waikiki Beach that should tell you how comfortable coach Mark Fox is with their practicing, since the nine-point loss at Saint Mary's last Saturday.



Since I read about Fox's tirade after the loss, and how basketball boot camp would follow the itinerary during this WAC road trip, I trust this team will be prepared since the Wolfpack got their feet wet - and sandy - yesterday on Waikiki.



The Warriors have won two of three - but the wins came against North Carolina A&T and Northwestern State. They lost at home to Colorado State and Penn, so I don't think they can overcome a better Nevada team.



Lest we forget, the Pack went 9-0 on the road in the conference on the way to a 16-2 WAC mark and 25-7 overall record, so confidence in that respect is on our side with enough back this year to emulate and carryover from the 2004-05 campaign.



Matt Gibson, Hawaii's 6-5 forward who averaged 13 points a game last season, is questionable tonight after missing nine of 11 games because of a three-game suspension for breaking team rules and then a staph infection. Either way, we're at an advantage. He certainly will not be in rythym if he does play, and if he doesn't, Nevada takes advantage with its post players who can slash.



Nick Fazekas, the WAC's second-leading scorer at 20 points per game, is one of the nation's most deceptive players. When you least expect it, this guy will roll you for 30. And let me throw this in for good measure, the Pack has won 10 games without the same contribution point guard Ramon Sessions made last season when he was WAC Freshman of the Year. But now he has seemingly recovered from a hip flexor and is getting back into basketball shape.

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CHUCK FRANKLIN
THE 2-MINUTE WARNING

NBA PLAYERS CLUB

Houston at Cleveland OVER the Total


1500♦ College Hoops
DREXEL

BOISE STATE

SACRAMENTO STATE

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JUSTIN PALMER
200,000♦ COLLEGE HOOPS NO-BRAINER PART 2
West Virginia-South Florida
(UNLV Over Texas Tech

200,000♦ COLLEGE HOOPS NO-BRAINER PART 2
AMONG TWO WINNERS
1. 200,000♦ WEST VIRGINIA!
This game just can't be close. The Mountaineers are way too talented to fall prey to what is an awful Bulls squad. South Florida's football team made a huge improvement this season but the basketball squad is a mess.

The Mounties are 8-3 and probably a better overall team then the one last year that shocked Wake Forest and advanced to the Elite Eight. Kevin Pittsnoggle, Mike Gansey, Joe Hebert and the boys from WV have won six straight and that three game losing streak is a thing of the past. These guys are rolling and too talented today.

South Florida is 6-7 and just lost at home to UAB and to Bethune Cookman. The Blazers are good but they are not close to being on the level of the Mountaineers and as for Bethune Cookman, enough said. Plus they have lost two straight and four of five and have absolutely no confidence or momentum right now and just will not compete at all.

South Florida will not score more then 55 or so and they will get trounced!



2. 100,000♦ MICHIGAN STATE!
Call me a sucker I don't care, I am not passing up the Spartans and this generous number. The Illini are very good but they are not the team they were last year and as they lost a ton. These guys really should not be able to soundly beat Michigan State anywhere. Playing at home will help them but Paul Davis is a bear down low and Tom Izzo also has guys like Shannon Brown and Drew Neitzel. The Spartans are for real this season and will be able to be in this game and possibly even win.

Whenever a top seven or so team is getting such a generous amount I just will never say no. This team is good enough to win the game. Obviously the Illini are good enough to cover the seven but we can cover 7 as well for sure.
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